MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Phillies. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to take swings, and this year figures to be no exception as they battle the Mets for control of the NL East.
Record: 47-31 (90.7% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)
Buy Mode
Potential needs: Late-inning relief, corner outfield, center field, second base
Philadelphia has fewer holes than most teams do. They're the rare club that probably feels good about their rotation depth. They've stacked much of the everyday lineup with star players, most of whom are performing up to expectations. The top priority is a familiar one for the fanbase and front office: stabilizing the back of the bullpen.
Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm are their top in-house options at the back end. Strahm is consistently effective but not a prototypical power arm. Romano's first season in Philly has been up-and-down. Kerkering has high-octane stuff and has gotten excellent results since the start of May, but he's always at risk of losing the strike zone. Rookies Mick Abel and Andrew Painter are starting pitching prospects but might make a greater impact this year in the late innings. Still, that's a lot of onus to put on young pitchers.
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Engage 2019 Nats mode.
Bohm is always in the ops 700 range.
He is always streaky too. Will hit for two weeks and then go a month without hitting. I dropped him in fantasy last year he got so bad. Stats don’t always tell the whole story when streaks are involved.
Bohm is a very good third baseman.
Phelonious Phils gonna trade the next O’Hoppe for a platoon outfielder. Steal of a deal.
Have you seen O’Hoppe lately? That deal isn’t as terrible as people once thought.
VPH stellar observation that too few care to check out.
Will O’Hoppe be a fixture for the Angels until post arb (?), heck yeah. But he is no where near the skills of an aging Realmuto, skills that this staff needs. Calling a game is so underrated.
From what I glean, he is pretty good, but again not to the level of Realmuto and this team is n win now mode.
Sure Marsh has plateaued, but like it or not, the Phils would have been screwed w/o his production these past few yrs. Wonder if he was allowed to stick in LF how said production might have been different?
I am going to temper those comments a bit. O’Hoppe is still only 25, which is still very young in catcher years. At the plate he shows well above power for a catcher, while the hit tool is still a work in progress. As a hitting catcher, he is above average and if he is going to be a star he will have to become more consistent with less swing and miss.
He ain’t JTR behind the dish, but he is more than solid. Works hard; rep as a solid game manager and the physical tools are good; team leader. In the game, catchers that perform as he projects are hardly standard fare and while he won’t reach JTR levels, how many do?
I understood the trade back then – Logan blocked, and the OF need but thought it was an overpay for Marsh. Marsh has been better than most fans think, but not as good as hoped for sure. But overall, both teams received value that helped – my only bone-picking is that at the time of the trade I thought that trading away O’Hoppe should have gotten a more sure thing in return.
Maybe if Marsh saw a barber he might improve the vision a bit…
should have traded Marchan instead and kept O’Hoppe but they guessed wrong this time.
It takes two to tango. Angels wanted O’Hoppe. There was no guessing involved on either side.
Marchan would not have gotten Marsh back.
Exactly. No one wanted Marchan.
I’m intrigued by the Mariners roster. Justin Crawford & Mick Abel for Andres Munoz & Dylan Moore? Instantly upgrade our defense and get a controllable bonafide closer. Also what are the Mariners going to do with Harry Ford? He gives me Buster Posey vibes, blocked by the best catcher in baseball. Need long term solution for JT. They have pieces that can help the Phillies in the short and long term, whereas Boston has two perfect puzzle pieces (rentals) in Aroldis Chapman & Rob Refsnyder. Is Byron Buxton of the Twins available? If so, he would make a lot sense as well, controllable through 2027 at 15/per. Or the AL leader in holds, Griffin Jax. Twins also have a deep bullpen. We’ll see if DD takes a swing at a controllable Allstar player, or some pieces on the cheaper side to compliment what we have.
So the whole farm?
I think he was suggesting any of these moves, not all of them.
What makes you think all these players you always want are or will be available, especially if their teams are still in contention? Are the Mariners packing it in and will be sellers? Why would the Phillies want to trade prospects for rentals? They already have 2 left handed hitting outfielders in Marsh and Kepler, why on earth would they trade for Refsnyder? They aren’t going to cut either one of them for a 32 year old rental. Buxton is like Trout – spends more time on the disabled list than on the playing field
I stand corrected – Refsnyder bats right, not left. I still don’t see Dombrowski trading prospects for rentals again, since it didn’t work last year trading for Estevez
They need a power hitter almost as much as they need bullpen help. Schwarber has 24 home runs but nobody else is even in double digits.
Definitely a solid hitting OFer. That’s been their weakest spot production wise.
Could do that with 3B. Move Bohm to 1B Harper to LF. Eugenio Suarez, Bregmann may be available
I don’t even think they need a closer per se. Don’t get me wrong, that’d be great, but they have guys to close out games. They just need depth.
Yes….A Closer would be Great…..But If I had the choice between (2) Back-End Arms or (1) Solid Closer…..I may take the two arms because we have multiple spots being held by folks who should not be out there.
Once again, this poor game management nonsense. What manager in MLB is managing his team so much better? What team has a bullpen with relievers with no losses and no blown saves? Who is this genius who should be managing the Phillies, and who would write out the perfect lineup every game and would make the absolute perfect pitching decisions and choices every time????
Schwarber in his last season with no trade protection probably in the conversations and probably Sosa. But who goes when Harper comes back from the IL?
Well, obviously Otto goes back to the land of the Iron Pigs. Did a decent fill-in job.
Nope – as things now stand, they will platoon him in LF with Kepler and as a ute. Buddy Kennedy will be the one to go (unfortunately via DFA again).
As a listener to both Philly sports FM radio stations, I find the opening of this post “soothing”, if not downright optimistic.
Way too much “blow it up” “lucky to make playoffs” “cut this guy” “break this guys’ fingers” etc etc…
Nice to hear they have a stellar staff, top heavy line-up and proven stars….
Let’s let the chips fall until the trade deadline…
@cpdpoet – I am truly sorry that you hurt your ears with sports talk radio – hopefully, at least, you manage to drink while listening. It is basically akin to taking keyboard warriors such as many on here and giving them a microphone. ; )
None of this should be measured in a vacuum; the best answer is always to “look around the league” (and I know that you know this already). Hitting down; woeful outfields everywhere; bullpens are always a work in progress to a disaster in the making; production at 1B is almost at historic lows and so on. So when we analyze our own trials and tribulations, we need to be realistic about what we can actually find out there.
DD will make at least one pen move of relative significance, but I will be unhappy if it costs any of our top 7 or 8 prospects to get there as I am never in favor of overpaying for bullpen arms. Otherwise, pickings are slim and will cost more than they are worth for potential OF upgrades unless we get lucky.
The rotation is not only top shelf but 7 deep. And yet the idea of trading from that depth is not a good one, as everyone knows that things change quickly with pitching arms. Keep the strength as a strength and in the playoffs we borrow a couple of arms for the pen. The offense is still a top 6 or 7 in baseball, with all of its issues and concerns. I would rather see if Kemp is for real as a RH platoon LF or bring up Crawford in another month as a potential upgrade than dig into the system to trade for another mediocrity.
The team is a good one, in first place and doing what it needs to do. If Bryce gets back and is relatively healthy that is a huge upgrade on its own. All fans want to buy buy buy to plug gaps but that is not where this team is right now.
Carver. Your bullpen has only been asked to cover the 3rd least innings in MLB. while giving up the 13th most runs. Bullpen ERA is 25th. That is behind the Marlins who have had to cover the 2nd most innings.
Of the teams in line for the playoffs the Phillies bullpen is the worst
@UKPhil – Hence, I stated “DD will make at least one bullpen move of relative significance”. Also noted that in the playoffs we will have at least two high quality starter arms that will shift to the pen.
Pens change from week to week. Right now, Kerkering, Romano and Strahm are in okay shape…lots of the damage to the pen was in April. They will be sorting things out up to the trade deadline and things can change rapidly.
Assuming we make the Playoffs…Who will be our starters. That could become a tricky question.
Wheeler
Suarez
Sanchez
Where does that leave Nola? Could Nola REALLY be bumped to the PEN with just spot starts in the Playoffs?
To go along with Luzardo with possibly Painter and Abel??
Man. Ranger showed he was effective out of the pen, so I wouldn’t rule out him. The man has some big stones. Although with Luzardo’s strike out stuff, I think he would be great out of the pen.i guess it depends on what Aaron Nola returns from the IL.
Funny am off today and in the sun listening to 97.5 and enjoying a few Troegs Perpetual IPA.
I am a Troegenator guy myself.
Come playoff time, and yes boys and girls, the Phillies will be in the playoffs unless the Baseball gods inflict a bevy of injuries, it’s all about the SP. Only need four to matriculate on through the playoffs, and we have possibly six.
We are vulnerable vs. LHP, and playing the likes of Sosa, Rojas and Otto ain’t gonna cure that. Need to get a RH bat with some pop. Should not be too difficult to obtain.
Heck, sign JD Martinez for DH and play Schwarber in LF. Remember, we went to a WS with the likes of Luzinski, Incaviglia and Burrell playing LF so, really, how bad can Schwarber be?
As an aside, I am still perplexed about what Dombro saw in Kepler, another LH bat that has to be platooned, for $10 million that made him forego picking up the $6 million option he had on Austin Hays, a RH bat who is the Reds everyday LF when healthy.
To be honest they got further both seasons they had Schwarber in left field. Just throwing it out there. The world did not end.
I never understood releasing Hays. Clearly we saw something, but he had major injuries and literally nearly DIED from illness….so yearh he did not play well but the fundamentals were there for at least a solid RH Platoon player. We spent more and got less. And the $4m saved perhaps could have gone to better Pen options….
Middleton is the kind of aggressive, large market, spend what it takes owner, that cricket Ricketts “The meek” will never be for the Cubs. I’m envious..
I like the Phillies more than I want to. You really need a backend to that bullpen. You may have taken the Marlins out 3 – 1 last week but your guys were a couple of RISP hits from losing 3 – 1
That is called “baseball”.
Can’t wait for the Mike Williams/Brandon Workman type trade.
David Bednar.
The problem with this scenario is Dombrowski is a stinky snake. Historically, he puts jello in his shoes… He will trade Schwarber for Kyle Freeman, Trea Turner will be traded for Shed Long, etc. The fact is this guy likes shopping in Marshalls with a Gucci bag, only problem is he forgot his pants in the trash…
I’d be intrigued by a Luis Robert/Steve Wilson deal if it meant mid level prospects. I believe if Robert played on this veteran team he would respond. If the floor on him is gold glove OF, SBs and occasional power you can move on at the end of the season. The ceiling would be all of that and hitting above .260 for a $20M option if Schwarber moves on.
Luis Robert doesn’t help the Phillies now or later. The combo of Rojas in Center and Schwarber at DH is not only twice as good production wise, but they will give you 162 games of production. The cherry on top is Rojas may outhit him straight-up over the course of a full season.
Tommy Kahnle for Justin Crawford?
If Trout comes back healthy soon, any chance the Phillies make a major trade for him? Feels more like an offseason move, but with Schwarber on the last year of his current deal, maybe they push the chips on this now?
Trout has chronic back issues that aren’t going to just magically go away. The team needs an outfielder who spends more time on the field than the disabled list
Crawford should be in Phillies OF right now.
Painter & Able to the Phillies pen.
Pick pick up a few more leverage relievers @ the deadline,
Painter and Abel have been starting pitchers their whole entire professional careers. They are not going to be suddenly randomly thrown into the bullpen, with the expectations of miraculously morphing into relievers or closers. This isn’t the little leagues or some video game where players can just be moved or thrown around on a whim
@Phillls – The Phils have already stated that they would not convert Painter to the pen in order to keep him healthy and on his program. Abel, OTOH, is someone that they have at least discussed as a temporary conversion if Nola comes back healthy and effective and / or Painter is here and in the rotation.
As they don’t have a clear spot for Abel next year, they might seriously consider using him in that role until things open up. Of course, this presupposes that conditions on the ground don’t change drastically in the interim, and the reality of pitching is that conditions on the ground change in a flash.
Crawford is raking at AAA. I think his hold up is defense. And age. He’s only 21. 21 and killing it in AAA. Just call him up already.
Crawford is nowhere near ready.
Abel hasn’t shown put away stuff.
Very concerned about bull pen closer and general depth.
Lazar? (maybe)
Johnson (maybe…probably not)
Mercado (no)
Rangel (no)
de Geus (no)
Robert (no)
Crismatt (started most of his career)
Sweet? hmm
No team in baseball has a bullpen full of All Star relievers. Every team has their share of Ross, Mercado, Rangel, Robert types.