MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
• Good afternoon! Quiet day and I’m finished eating lunch, so let’s get underway early.

Piratus maximus

• What is Pittsburgh doing?  Trading Hayes looks like starting over. Will Cruz still be around when they’re competitive again?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think dumping the rest of an unwanted Hayes contract constitutes starting over. If they traded Paul Skenes, that would’ve been starting over.Cruz only has three years of club control after this one, and I don’t expect the Bucs to compete in 2026, so I’d lean toward him being traded before the Pirates are genuinely competitive again, though.

He Hate Me

• So, just saving money this off-season and still trying to compete in 2026? Or do the Twins enact a full tear-down, including trades of cost-controlled talent like Joe Ryan (whose value could plummet with an injury in 2026)?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think we can really know which direction they’ll go until their sale process has been completed. If they don’t have a new owner in place — or at least an agreement with a buyer — by the offseason, I’d expect each of Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach and Bailey Ober (among others) to be kicked around the trade market this winter — especially the first two.

Frisco Kid

• What are your thoughts about the Giants promoting Bryce Eldridge to the majors?

Steve Adams

• He only has 150ish PAs in AAA and they’ve been good, not great, with a 32% strikeout rate. I get the frustration with the big league club and the excitement to see the org’s top prospect, but a 20-year-old who’s K’ing in nearly a third of his Triple-A plate appearances seems like he’d be overmatched in the majors.Plus, calling him up would mean adding him to the 40-man two years earlier than they need to in order to protect him from the Rule 5. You’re eating up a 40-man roster spot for the coming offseason.

  Earlier in the year, I thought the Giants would call up Eldridge if they were contending and he was mashing in AAA. I tend to think now that the better move is to wait until 2026. It’s not like he’s absolutely forcing the issue with dominant play in Sacramento.

Gaurdiansjoe

• How long are we gonna wait to know if we have our starting pitcher (Ortiz) or our all star closer (Classe)? Should we just assume they are both done for the year? For ever? Seems like we should of heard something, hopefully something good.

Steve Adams

• They’re on administrative leave until Aug. 31, so I doubt we’ll hear anything before then. My guess — and it is a total guess, just based on how prior league investigations regarding a variety of topics have played out — is that on 8/31, the league just announces that the leave has been extended through the end of the regular season (or possibly through the World Series), and they’ll quietly continue the investigation with an eye toward announcing discipline in the offseason.

Steve Cohen

• Will the Pirates ever call up Bubba Chandler this year?

Steve Adams

• After Aug. 15, players no longer have enough days on the calendar to exhaust their rookie status this year. I’m guessing that on 8/20 or so, Chandler is magically ready for the majors, and he’ll then head into ’26 in position to break camp on the roster and possibly net the Pirates a draft pick via the Prospect Promotion Incentives, depending on ROY voting.

KevininFla

• Do you believe the Padres will make a serious effort to re-sign Michael King in the offseason?

Steve Adams

• I’d be very surprised if they don’t make a real effort, yes. Cease seems likelier to go, between the two

Peace Love & pancakes

• Look ahead to next year for the Brewers — what might they be seeking in free agency? Do they go with Vaughn at first? Durbin at third? Ortiz at Short? Wait for the middle infield rookies to mature? If they spend any money (always a big if), what night they seek out?

Steve Adams

• I just don’t expect them to look to spend all that much. Vaughn has all but staked his claim to the 1B job in 2026 with his absurd turnaround. I could see them looking for some left-side infield help, but there aren’t many great options out there in that regard anyhow aside from Bregman or Suarez, I suppose, and the Brewers aren’t ponying up for either.I imagine they’ll be open to adding a veteran starter on a one-year deal and they’ll look for some bench/bullpen upgrades who won’t break the bank. They’ll at least listen to offers on Freddy Peralta, since he’s only signed one more year and that’s just what the Brewers do. But in general, I just wouldn’t get your hopes up for a big-money acquisition. It’s not how they typically operate, and based on how much success they have every year, I’m not really sure it’s how they need to operate.

Joshua

• Thoughts on the Nats starter Brad Lord? He’s been a pleasant surprise, do you think he could be a legit #3 starter? Thanks.

Steve Adams

• He’s been better than I’d have expected, but it’s below-average strikeout levels with good-not-great command and pretty poor chase/swinging-strike rates. A genuine No. 3 mid-rotation arm would surprise me. He feels more like a borderline No. 4/5 guy. He’s having a pretty similar season to Mitchell Parker’s 2024, granted with a lot more grounders (but also more walks and hit batters)

Free Agency

• Does Zac Gallen get a QO next year? Fair to assume King and Woodruff do, injuries notwithstanding?

Steve Adams

• All three will get qualifying offers.

AJ Preller

• Tell me I’m not dumb enough to Luis Arreaz to a long-term contract…No power, doesn’t walk, below average defense and speed… money could be spent in other places, right?

Steve Adams

• I’ve gotten a bunch of questions from Padres fans about this, seemingly because one Bleacher Report writer predicted Arraez will get something like six years and $90MM?I think Arraez’s contract will come in at maybe half that — I find most of that opinion piece’s predictions to be pretty unrealistic in one direction or another — and I don’t expect the Padres to be the ones to make a big push to re-sign him.

JV

• Do you think Verlander actually pitches next season? He says he plans to, but the issue would be what team would want him? Posey said at the press conference for JV he hopes to resign him in the offseason. Do you think thats still true?

Steve Adams

• Verlander had a rocky start but has a 4.02 ERA, 20 K% and 7.5 BB% over his past 16 starts. I don’t see why teams would think he’s incapable of pitching another year. If he wants to pitch, someone will sign him to a one-year deal. It’d probably come in under this year’s $15MM salary, but the idea that he’s cooked or something feels more like people reacting to his 1-9 record, which is more an indictment on the Giants’ roster than on Verlander’s ability.

Arodyankees

• Does Trent Grisham get a QO??

Steve Adams

• It’d be defensible, but I lean against it. The Yankees are luxury payors, so they’d only get a pick after the 4th round if he rejected and signed elsewhere. That’s not especially great compensation, and they probably don’t want Grisham taking up a $22MM salary on day one of the offseason when they already have Judge, Dominguez and Spencer Jones in the outfield mix.

Oz

• The Braves will have $32 million to spend when Marcell Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias depart via free agency.  What moves do you think Alex Anthopoulos will make this Winter?

Steve Adams

• That’s not really true. I mean, it’s true that the $16MM salaries of Ozuna and Iglesias are off the books, but all of that money will be eaten up organically by raises elsewhere on the roster.Spencer Strider’s salary jumps from $4MM to $20MM. Reynaldo Lopez goes from $8MM to $14MM. Jurickson Profar from $12MM to $15MM. (Well, he only got half that salary this year with the suspension, so technically from $6MM to $15MM). Aaron Bummers goes $3.5MM to $9.5MM.

  The arb class is small, with several non-tender candidates (Kelenic, Eli White, Dane Dunning, Nick Allen) — but Dylan Lee will get a raise from just over $1MM to something between $2-3MM as well.

• The Braves have $159MM on next year’s books, and that’s before picking up options on Chris Sale, Pierce Johnson, Ozzie Albies and Tyler Kinley. That’ll bump that $159MM figure to $191MM. ($193MMish, after accounting for Dylan Lee)
• The Braves don’t really spend aggressively in free agency anyhow, so I’m not sure it matters a ton. I’d expect them to be more active on the trade market as they look for upgrades at shortstop and perhaps a bat to cycle through the OF/DH

RoxTalks

• Does Cody Bellinger pick up his player option? My gut says yes based on his slightly lackluster batted ball profile, but he’s had an above average year at the dish and at multiple positions in the field so I could see him declining it and seeking more on the open market.

Steve Adams

• No chance he picks it up. It’s a net $20MM decision for him, and he’ll trounce that mark in free agency.
• Bellinger has been an above-average bat for three years now. The injury is behind him. He’s playing good defense at multiple spots. He’ll be 30 for most of next year. He should pursue — and will likely find — something like a five-year deal.

Mets4Life

• What are the chances Mets resign Alonso now that he’s soon to be the franchise’s all time HR leader?

Steve Adams

• The Mets didn’t want to sign him long-term last offseason, and I don’t see any reason they’d be more excited about doing so now that he’s a year older. I expect Alonso to decline his player option, hit the open market (this time without a QO), and sign elsewhere for something like $100-110MM over four years.If the same cycle plays out, where he goes out seeking a massive deal and is left standing in February, maybe the Mets will circle back with another opt-out deal.

Bobby M

• Adolis Garcia DFA candidate soon? He’s been absolutely brutal this season and the team would be better without him on the roster. He’ll be non tendered so why not see if someone picks up the salary

Steve Adams

• I don’t expect him to be DFA, no — though I wouldn’t be totally stunned if they put him on outright waivers later in the month to see if someone will claim him.I do agree he’s a non-tender candidate, but they can run him through waivers without committing to cutting him. If he clears, they can hang onto him and see if he catches fire in September and restores a little trade juice. They’re stuck paying him either way, so may as well hang onto him and see if there’s any sort of market early in the offseason.

K Dubs

• Do the Phillies promote Crawford after Aug 15?  He absolutely deserves the look; Batting .330 and .416 OBP in 94 games.  And if so, what does the OF look like with Bader, Marsh, Kepler in the mix and heavy on LH hitters?

Steve Adams

• Yeah I expect he’ll be up once we get past the 2026 rookie cutoff there, and I imagine the Phillies will just DFA Kepler once they decide to bring Crawford up. It hasn’t been a good fit. No one’s going to claim the rest of the contract, of course, so he’d be released in that scenario.

romorr

• So after 3 IL visits and a bad year of pitching, what’s Eflins market look like? See too many people thinking he still gets 3-4 years @ 20 million+. Seems like the perfect 1 year guy to rebuild value.

Steve Adams

• I doubt I’d have predicted much more than 3/66  even with a healthy season. I agree, he’s a one-year guy — maybe two with an opt-out, I suppose.

Steve

• How long are you going to run an ad in between every question and answer? Its terribly annoying and to me is rapidly causing me to skip your chat altogether.

Steve Adams

• Genuinely do not know what you’re referencing. There shouldn’t be ads in the chat, and no one has ever complained about this before. Send us an email through the contact form with more details?

Bo’s Brother

• I know it’s a few months away, but what’s the ballpark for a Josh Naylor contract this offseason? Will he best Christian Walker’ contract? Naylor is a few years younger, but Walker put up better numbers leading into free agency.

Steve Adams

• I think he can top the total guarantee but probably not the AAV. Naylor is a hard one to peg, but in a world where Andrew Benintendi gets $75MM, I’d be looking to match or top that. He’s a better hitter who’s also hitting the market at an uncommonly young age (as Benintendi did).

Re: Bellinger

• If/when he declines his option, are the Yankees still obligated to pay him the $5 million buyout?

Steve Adams

• Yes

Jonny Venters

• What does a Murakami deal look like?

Steve Adams

• It’s too early to tell. He’s missed most of the NPB season with an oblique injury and only just returned. I touched on Murakami in the followup to our Power Rankings last week:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/2025-26-mlb-free-agent-power-ra…

Jake

• Have we ever seen a contending team make an acquisition blunder like the Cubs did with Mike Soroka? Velo was trending down on a pitcher who has an injury history and they made the trade anyways?

Steve Adams

• The velo dip was pretty notable, but the Cubs were obviously comfortable enough with their review of his medicals.I don’t think their big blunder was necessarily in acquiring Soroka at all, but rather in having him stand as the only real addition to a rotation that’s in glaring need of more help.

  The Cubs (and Tigers and several others) seem paralyzed by the notion of giving up top prospects in a trade. The entire industry as a whole — Padres, Mariners and maybe the Phillies excluded — seems to be in this boat. Front offices are so protective of prospects that it’s reached the point of absurdity, in my view.

  The number of guys who’ve gone from untouchable to sell-low trade chips and eventual DFA fodder is staggering. The MLB front office groupthink regarding prospects is so over the top.

Raz Sox

• Tanner Houck a non-tender?

Steve Adams

• I lean that way. I could see keeping him if he’d been good when healthy and then had the TJS, but he was maybe the worst starter in the league. Obviously, the elbow health (or lack thereof) probably contributed to that, but you’d be tendering him for something like $4.5MM to $5MM knowing he won’t pitch next year and knowing he’d command the same salary in arb the following season. If Boston feels Houck’s 2027 is worth two years and $9-10MM, I suppose that’s defensible. (2024 Houck certainly was, obviously) But a non-tender seems reasonably likely to me.

JErry DIpoto Mind Trick

• the Ms have to make a real effort to sign Naylor, right? He’s a perfect fit and we don’t have any real 1B prospects in the system

Steve Adams

• I’m sure they’ll make some effort, but I don’t know that the lack of high-end 1B prospects in their system means much. The free agent market this year will have Ryan O’Hearn, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Luis Arraez and, of course, Naylor. Trade market could have Nate Lowe, Ryan Mountcastle, Triston Casas, Alec Burleson and others.
• So sure, if they like Naylor well enough, absolutely make a run at keeping him. But I don’t think it’s any sort of colossal misstep if they decide they don’t want to go 4-5 years on him and pivot to something shorter-term.

Mountcastle

• Mountcastle and Mayo for Luis Robert.  Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Baltimore

Mike

• Yanks offer weaver 3-45 with a player option for another 12 right now weaver take it?

Steve Adams

• That’s not a 3-year, $45MM offer. That’s a 4-year, $57MM offer with the final season being a player option. If they offer that, yes, Weaver should take it.

Ben and Jerry Rice cream

• Why are top 100 lists sleeping on Dakota Jorden ? He’s got Major league talent and is kicking butt

Steve Adams

• He’s hitting well as a former college player playing against younger opponents in Low-A and still K’ing at a 23% clip. He struck out a ton in college. He’s striking out a lot considering the opposition he’s facing, too.
• An NCAA player who’s more than a year removed from being drafted within the first four rounds should be beating up Class-A pitching. Statistically, nothing he’s doing is particularly crazy.For what it’s worth, MLB.com just ranked him sixth among Giants’ prospects in their re-rank of all 30 systems today, though.

DTownWarrior78

• I am totally peeved at Scott Harris and the Tigers FO for not going after E. Suarez, as he was the bat that could really stretch this lineup. But with the moves that this FO did make, do you think we have enough to make a “serious” run this postseason?

Steve Adams

• It’s a toss-up between Tigers and Cubs for most disappointing deadline, in my view. I have a hard time seeing this bullpen making a deep run, but they have a knack for getting high-end performance out of some unexpected relievers. Maybe they can finally get Kyle Finnegan to miss bats the way you’d expect someone with his velo/stuff to. Maybe they can get Rafael Montero back to 2022 form.I don’t really see it, personally, but I’m always open to being proven wrong — which happens plenty! I think they should’ve done more.

  Darragh and I talked about this again on the podcast episode that’ll drop tomorrow, because we had lots of questions about the Tigers’ pedestrian deadline.

Splashy Cubs

• Cubs need an off season splash especially if they lose Tucker so who do they get?  Bellinger reunion or someone else?

Steve Adams

• They’ve got Busch at 1B and an outfield with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara. They clearly didn’t want to move Caissie at the deadline.I don’t think they’d shell out five years and $100MM+ for Bellinger. (Someone will) If they make a big move, a more legitimate run at Bregman or a quality rotation arm seems more feasible.

ccsilvia

• Prediction on whether Edwin Diaz exercises his 18.5M player option or hits the market?

Steve Adams

• Easy call to turn down the 2/37 left on his deal and test free agency again.

Pablo Lopez

• This question is based on an earlier response. Did I just not come off the top of your head, or do you think Joe Ryan is more likely to be traded than I? If so, why? Thanks for the chats. They’re a lot of fun.

Steve Adams

• Depends on how he finishes the season, but if Lopez doesn’t make it back, or he makes it back but has diminished results, it’s not crazy to me to think they’d hang onto him and shop him at next year’s deadline. (Again, assuming the Twins don’t have a new owner in place and thus continue trending toward the rebuild side of things)

Miguel Andujar

• With this season I am having am I better than Torres and can match his $12-$15 million annual salary?

Steve Adams

• Torres was 27 this past offseason. Andujar will be 31 in March. And his rate stats are largely attributable to being shielded from RHP to an extent. He’s decimated lefties and been a league-average bat against righties. He doesn’t have much/any defensive value. I don’t see how he gets into Gleyber range on a one-year deal.

Andrew

• If he opts out, would the Tigers seriously consider taking another run at Bregman?

Steve Adams

• He will opt out, and I expect the Tigers to chase after him again, yes.

bmcferren

• Luis Robert gets a major league contract this offseason or just a minor league invite?

Steve Adams

• The White Sox will probably exercise his option, which is insane to me, but that was their thinking behind not trading him.He’d get a big league deal if they declined it, though.

WeNeedtoFindNimmo

• So if Diaz opts out, what does he get?  Would think he is probably getting around $20m/season for another 3-4 years… and I don’t think the Mets are going to lose him given he’s been a success in NY

Steve Adams

• Yeah, I think around 4/80. I also think it’ll come from someone other than the Mets unless Steve Cohen personally steps in. Signing a reliever to a long-term deal at $20MM annually feels like the antithesis of the David Stearns baseball operations playbook.

SandyEggo

• Laureano’s option get exercised? He’s been excellent in 2025 and 6.5 won’t break the bank.

Steve Adams

• Definitely exercised, barring some major injury

Medical malpractice lawyer

• I get teams like to sometimes hide/downplay injuries publicly, but two years in a row now the Astros have had “minor injuries” turn into nearly year long absences. Is this medical malpractice, or simply publicly being shady?

Steve Adams

• Houston has for years been the least forthcoming team in the game when it comes to the health of their players. They did recently start (finally) issuing weekly medical updates on their injured guys, however.

Pirates

• Will the Pirates trade Skenes in the off season, or at next years deadline?

Steve Adams

• I doubt either. Probably 2+ years before they get to really considering that (and only if the franchise is still toiling)

Kyle

• If the Red Sox wanted to move Yoshida in the offseason, how much money would they have to eat to get someone to take him?

Steve Adams

• Probably close to $30MM of the $36MM he’s still owed? Jesse Winker got $7.5MM on a one-year deal last winter with the same skill set and coming off a better year. Yoshida feels like a guy who might get a year and $5MM or so. If he has a big finish, maybe they only need to eat like $25MM or so, but we’re talking the majority either way.

Astros Infield

• SOMEONE is going to have to be traded during the offseason, right?  I don’t see how otherwise everyone fits.

Steve Adams

• I could see them making Christian Walker or Isaac Paredes available — probably preferring to move the former.

CubanMissileCrisis

• Would the Sox consider a QO for Chapman? He’s older than rope but probably been the best closer in baseball this season, no?

Steve Adams

• I was queueing up a “he’s already received one in the past and thus can’t get another one,” but he’s been traded and extended at prior points where he’d have received one, so he surprisingly is still fair game for one.I have to think that given his age, he’d accept. Accepting a QO for him would also immediately give him the all-time AAV record for a reliever. Nice little perk!

  It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world to make the offer, but $22MM (or thereabouts) is more than he’d get on a one-year deal in free agency, so I feel like they’ll probably pass on doing so. Good as he’s been, I’m not sure even the Red Sox believe he can suddenly sustain a 7% walk rate after sitting 14.5% or higher in each of the four prior seasons.

AA

• How big of a return can Alex get for Sean Murphy this off-season? I assume Walcott is not happening? Thoughts? Comments? Concerns?!

Steve Adams

• No, not getting Sebastian Walcott for three years of Sean Murphy at $45MM. It’s nice value, sure, but it’s not like there’s $50MM of surplus value there or anything.I’m not entirely convinced they trade him. Could just go Baldwin/Murphy at DH/C next year.

  In general, while I think the remaining Murphy money is fine, I don’t expect that the Braves would be able to command any true top-tier prospects if they move him. Swapping him for a big league SP on a team that has pitching depth and needs C help has some merit though.

JaysFan

• Should Blue Jays fans enjoy this run with Bo, or do you think he will re-sign?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think re-signing him is out of the question. They have $188MM on next year’s books but only $142MM the following season. They’re nearing the end of the Springer and Gausman deals. Bichette has been open about how he’d love to stay in Toronto and spend his career playing alongside Vlad.He’s probably playing his way into a contract upwards of $200MM, but the Jays can stomach that. Would be easier if they hadn’t taken on so much of that Andres Gimenez deal. Whoops.
• Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker, our GM Tracker, our Agency Database, and more. It all starts at $2.99/month.

  Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!