Steve Adams
- Good morning! We’ll get going at 1:00 CT, give or take a couple minutes, but feel free to begin sending in questions ahead of time if you prefer.
- Greetings! Let’s get going
Doug Sisk
- What happens to Frankie Montas’ 2026 player option if the Mets release him before the end of the 2025 season?
Steve Adams
- The player option is guaranteed money. He’d make next year’s $17MM and count against the luxury tax whether he’s on the roster or not.
OsKnows
- Mountcastle’s time as an O almost over?
Steve Adams
- I do think he’ll be traded this offseason (or perhaps just non-tendered if he really struggles down the stretch, but he’s hitting well since returning from the IL anyhow). I’d expect first base to primarily be a combination of Mayo and Basallo next year. Mountcastle only has one year of club control left and will probably make more than $8MM. O’s can move him and put that money toward pitching instead.
Guarded Indian
- When a player is released to pursue an opportunity overseas, does that generally happen because the players agent is looking for better financial opportunities for their client or is it because the foreign team reaches out? I’m trying to figure out how a AAAA player is identified as a good fit for a Korean baseball team etc.
Steve Adams
- KBO and NPB teams have scouts watching MLB and MiLB games. They’ll identify guys they like, get in touch with the agent, and if there’s reciprocal interest you can then pull in the player’s current organization and discuss some kind of release fee.By the time a player is getting released to pursue a foreign opportunity, the contract and any release fee have typically already been sorted out.
Jerry Dipoto
- Am I going to re-sign Josh Naylor to be my 1B next year? Or is there a different external options I should be looking at? I don’t see the player in house.
Steve Adams
- I lean toward no. Mitch Garver is the only free agent position player Dipoto has signed to a multi-year deal since taking over the Mariners a decade ago.
TennesseeMG
- Do you think Kyle Tucker’s monster slump will have a major impact, moderate impact or little to no impact on the deal he gets in free agency?
Steve Adams
- Little to none, provided it’s not due to an injury or anything. We have like 5 years of telling us this guy’s an amazing hitter… that’s not going to get overshadowed by a few weeks of struggles. I mean, if he hits like .150/.225/.250 down the stretch, maybe it starts to impact, but as of right now, it’s not a factor really.
Steve Cohen
- Who do you think wins the MVP in each league?
Steve Adams
- Ohtani in the NL, and I’ve probably flipped to Raleigh in the AL. I could go either way at this moment, but it increasingly seems like Judge is going to be limited or a total nonfactor on defense for the rest of the season, and he’s in a pretty rough stretch at the plate which seems attributable to the injury.
Jose Alvarado
- I’m coming off the restricted list today… My contract is done at the end of 2025… but if I perform down the stretch similar to what I did before my PED suspension – do you think the Phillies will try to re-sign me? Or did a door close in Philly after I screwed up.
Steve Adams
- The Phillies have a $9MM club option that comes with a $500K buyout. A net $8.5MM option is a pretty easy call for them on Alvarado. He’ll be back.
Effin Eflin
- Does Zach Eflin get a QO from the Orioles this off season?
Steve Adams
- Had he been healthy, yeah — but with the lat/back injuries and now back surgery clouding some of his offseason, no. The O’s aren’t risking around $22MM on day one of the offseason when he’ll only be a couple months into the rehab process.
Jays in 43 parks
- Bassitt is having a decent season. Would a 2 yr ext at same AAV be smart for the Jays. Would Bassitt accept?
Steve Adams
- I think a two-year term is pretty reasonable — he’s not going to get more than that for ages 37 and 38 — but the $21MM AAV feels a little steep to me. Bassitt is still effective, and he’s consistent, but his velo is down more than a mile per hour from last year and nearly two miles per hour from the point at which he signed the contract. I don’t think teams are going to excited about $20MM+ for a 37-year-old who’s sitting 91 mph with his heater. I’d probably guess like $15-16MM per year over two.
Walter
- How much longer before the Clase and Ortiz situation is resolved?
Steve Adams
- They’re on leave through Aug. 31, and it’ll probably extend beyond that if this is anything like prior instances of players being placed on administrative leave.
PhilsPhansince1965
- Harrison Bader is a hard one for me to forecast – love the CF defense even while he is now at an age that it can decline rapidly. His bat has never been a steady plus however, but perhaps he can be league average in center. What range of contract offers might he get this winter?
Steve Adams
- I think he’s done enough to get a multi-year deal. He’ll be 32, but you can bank on the defense being good and there have been some real offensive gains. Something like two years and $22MM?
Brew Crewzing
- NL Cy Young? Skenes is most dominant but has a losing record, Wheeler is out for awhile. Who can sneak in? (Freddy Peralta? If he can reach 20 wins.)
Steve Adams
- The record is irrelevant. It’ll be Skenes, barring some late injury or collapse, and deservedly so. It’s not his fault the team around him is awful.
John
- Is Trevor Rogers a true 1? Does he finish top 5 cy young this year?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think he’ll have the workload to finish top 5, and I don’t buy him as an ace, no. He’s obviously improved over last year, but it’s an average strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate, good command … and huge assists from a .214 BABIP and 85% strand rate, neither of which is sustainable over a lengthy period.I loved Rogers back in ’21, but he had an extra 1.5 mph on his heater then, several extra percentage points in his swinging-strike rate and was giving up less contact on pitches in the zone.
This version of him sure looks like a good mid-rotation guy to me, but I don’t buy into the results being THIS good.
Oz
- There were indications that the Braves would use Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin next year as their DH/catcher tandem. In view of Sean Murphy’s struggles, is it possible that they might re-sign Marcell Ozuna to a 1-year deal, acquire a back-up catcher, and trade Murphy to fill another team need?
Steve Adams
- I do think there’s a chance that they end up trading Murphy, but I’d be surprised to see Ozuna back with how much he’s struggled since June.
Tom Kelly’s blues
- Do the Twins build around the core of Keashal, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, Martin and Larnach along with Buxton and Jeffers?
Steve Adams
- I wouldn’t call all of them core pieces. Keaschall and Buxton, yes. Lee will get every chance to prove he can be that, and I can’t imagine them selling low on Royce Lewis. Wallner, Martin and especially Larnach feel much less like core pieces to me. I think Larnach is probably non-tendered or traded early in the offseason. Jeffers just has one year of club control left as well, making him a pretty viable offseason trade candidate.
Mike
- why havent I heard anything about Merrill Kelly receiving a QO? He should get one right?
Steve Adams
- He can’t receive one because he was traded midseason.
- If the D-backs had kept him, yeah, he’d have gotten one.
John
- this would’ve sounded crazy a couple years ago, but do the rangers non tender Josh Jung or still too early?
Steve Adams
- They won’t non-tender him. He’s only going into his first arb year. But I wouldn’t be shocked with a trade, either. I imagine there are going to be sweeping changes to that lineup this offseason.
2023 Angels
- If the Red Sox make the playoffs, is Nathaniel Lowe eligible for their post-season roster? Would this also be true if he had been claimed off waivers – i.e. if Boston had assumed his remaining contract? Does this change for waived players added after August?
Steve Adams
- As long as a player is in the organization — not even on the 40-man roster — before Sept. 1, he can be eligible for the postseason. If that player isn’t on the 40 as of 9/1, they’d need to petition the league to have him replace an injured player, but teams do that every year.
- Anyone signed/claimed Sept. 1 or later is ineligible.
Luis Robert Jr
- What sort of contract offer can I expect this offseason?
Steve Adams
- You can expect the White Sox to pick up your $20MM option, which I wouldn’t do — I’d have traded him — but they wouldn’t have held him just to decline the option.
Kyle
- Nate Lowe has a 1.000 OPS so far with Boston, how long can he continue this level of production?
Steve Adams
- Forever.
WT
- Do you see the Reds this winter signing Tyler Stephenson to an extension? He only has 1 year of control after this season. Or will the Reds try to flip him this winter and make Jose Trevino their starter given Jose is locked up for several years? Catching depth in the Reds system seems light if they trade him or let him walk off after 2026.
Steve Adams
- He’s been below-average at the plate (albeit average relative to his position) and would be getting a raise north of $7MM probably. I don’t know that he’s a non-tender candidate, but I could see him traded.Trevino gives them an elite, affordable glove to start back there until Alfredo Duno is ready for a look in a couple years. And while the system is lacking volume in terms of catching prospects, Duno is one of the better catching prospects in the sport.
Zeke haydn
- Who will be the first pirate traded after the season has ended?Skenes? Or Cruz?
Steve Adams
- Neither? But definitely not Skenes. Either Mitch Keller or Dennis Santana seems like they’d have a good chance to go, though.
Mike T
- Will Nick Allen be looking for a new team after this year? Will he even still be in the majors?
Steve Adams
- He’s such a good defender that someone will have him on a roster on Opening Day, but the Braves should 100% be looking for shortstop upgrades, with Allen either moving to a bench role or being traded.
Playing Nats GM
- Between the 5 OFs on the MLB roster and a few others in the pipeline, trading from that group to fill another need makes sense for Washington. Is that something you could see the Nationals doing this winter?
Steve Adams
- Sure. They’re not going to move Wood or Crews, but any of Young, Hassell or Lile seems plausible.
Ryan
- Eovaldi = 2025 AL Cy Young winner?
Steve Adams
- He’s going to come in 30 or so innings behind Skubal, Crochet and Hunter Brown. I don’t think he’s going to have the innings. But I suppose if he can somehow sustain a 1.75 ERA or even improve upon it, at a certain point the workload gap will take a backseat to the rate stats. I don’t know that anyone can really expect to sustain results this good, though, and I wouldn’t say we’ve reached the point yet where the gap can be justifiably overlooked.
Kyle
- Does Bichette find someone to pay him like a SS this offseason, or do teams see him more as a guy who needs to move to 2B/3B and pay him accordingly?
Steve Adams
- I think he’ll sign as a shortstop but probably move to one of those other spots a few years into a deal. Jays, Tigers, Braves are the obvious potential landing spots (not that the Braves typically spend to that extent in free agency). Detroit has McGonigle coming, but he’s still only 20 and as said, Bichette could move to another spot in a few years.But, much like Willy Adames last winter, I think it’d be beneficial to get it out there early in the winter that he’s willing to play other positions, even if the goal is to sign somewhere that he can continue as a shortstop for a few years.
Alex Bregman
- Can I top 40 MM AAV again but on a longer deal?
Steve Adams
- No, but he’ll crush the $80MM he has left. And you can argue he doesn’t really even have a $40MM AAV right now anyway, once you factor in deferrals.
Tom Kelly
- Will Emmanuel Rodriguez be starting in lf for Twins next year?
Steve Adams
- I can see him up at some point, maybe even early in the season, but the K’s are a huge concern as is the durability (or lack thereof)
Moneyball
- Who would you dangle in trades for pitching from the position player logjam forming on the A’s and which team(s) do you think would line up well as potential trade partners?
Steve Adams
- Bleday and Soderstrom feel like the most straightforward calls to me, though I think you can keep functioning with Soderstrom, Kurtz and Rooker all on the same roster. Soderstrom has handled the outfield move just fine. Colby Thomas would get some interest if the A’s are envisioning Soderstrom, Clarke and Butler as the long-term outfield trio.I imagine they’ll have teams trying to pry Langeliers away, and if someone offers enough pitching, I think you have to be open to it. Three years of control remaining, price tag is going to skyrocket in arb, etc.
Ranger Danger
- Will Philly make a QO to Suarez?
Steve Adams
- Yup
The Mick
- What years/$ will it take to sign Bellinger next season?
Steve Adams
- Five years in the $25MM per year range?
Kyle
- Any chance King exercises his option for next year and stays in SD, given the amount of time he’s doesn’t on the IL with health issues the year?
Steve Adams
- No. Even with the injuries, he could decline and expect a much better one-year deal than the net $11.25MM. He gets the $3.75MM buyout regardless.
Jeremy
- Contract that gets Bregman resigned next year? 5 years/150m?
Steve Adams
- I’ll take the over.
Bud Man, Cub Fan
- Cubbies have to be kicking themselves for not trading one of Cassie or Alcantara for another starter, right?
Steve Adams
- Cubs’ and Tigers’ passive deadlines still surprise me.
MonarchsAllDay
- Can the Royals at least make things interesting over the next month for that final playoff spot, however unlikely?
Steve Adams
- They’re only 3.5 out, so sure, I can see them kind of hanging around. But the rest of their schedule is pretty rough. They have a stretch coming up where they play the Tigers six times in nine games, and they still have series against the Phillies, Mariners and Blue Jays.So… I don’t expect it, but they’re close enough already that it’s not unthinkable.
Kyle
- Assuming Giolito passes the 140 innings and declines the option, does it make sense for Boston to give him a QO?
Steve Adams
- It does. If he accepted, that’d be a fine price for him on a one-year deal, but I think he’d be very likely to decline. When you’ve got Jameson Taillon, Eduardo Rodriguez and Taijuan Walker signing in the $68-80MM range, I don’t see why Giolito can’t get into that range.
Dandy the mascot
- Are Dominguez and Stanton the worst defensive corner OFs for a playoff bound team this century?
Steve Adams
- Not great, but the Phillies got there with Schwarber and Castellanos playing OF regularly in 2022.
Schwarberr
- How scary are the 2026 Reds if they sign Schwarber given their Rotation.
Steve Adams
- I’ll believe they sign Schwarber when I see it. I know he’s from there and there was the recent piece in The Athletic about the idea of him playing at GABP, but I’ve come around on the idea of him signing a precedent-setting deal for someone of his age and lack of defensive versatility, and I don’t see Cincinnati topping $100MM to sign him.
Brian S
- Any chance my White Sox have any chance of signing Murakami?
Steve Adams
- I’d be surprised, as they haven’t really been active in the NPB market since………… Tadahito Iguchi? Am I missing anyone?Also, they’ve never signed a player for more than $75MM (which is still insane to think about for a team from Chicago … or really, for any team in MLB at this point).
Hard to say what Murakami’s earning power will be with the strikeouts, struggles against velocity and a half season lost to injury, but a 25-year-old with 80 raw power is going to get interest. He’s also demolishing the ball since he came off the injured list a couple weeks ago (albeit while still striking out in about a third of his plate appearances).
Kyle
- Chances Cease and/or King sign short term high AAV deals with opt outs (a la Bregman) to hopefully have a bounce back year and hit free agency again next year?
Steve Adams
- I can see it with either, sure.
Mike Elias
- Do I trade Adley to the Mariners this offseason for much needed pitching?
Steve Adams
- Think Seattle’s pretty good at catcher. They have a young guy back there who’s having an OK season. Can’t recall his name, but he’s one to watch for in the years ahead. 🙂
CHISOX FAN
- Will Braden Montgomery be given a chance to make the team next year?
Steve Adams
- I’d be surprised if he makes the club out of camp. He still only has 15-20 games in AA and has struck out a lot there. But sometime next summer, sure.
- Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve or Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, a weekly subscriber-only chat with Anthony (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker, our GM Tracker and our Agency Database, and more.
Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!
