MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! I’ll get going at 1pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. As always, feel free to ask a question(s) in advance if you prefer!
• Let’s begin!

Kevin

• Should the Phillies re-sign Harrison Bader? Brandon Marsh has regressed heavily in CF, Johan Rojas has not shown any ability to hit, and top prospect Justin Crawford is getting billed by scouts as a better fit in LF. Not many quality CF options out there.

Steve Adams

• It’s a fine fit, and I don’t anticipate him being especially expensive — at least not by the Phillies’ standards. I do think he’s been so good in Philly that he’s started to price himself well beyond what my initial expectations were (something like 2/25). But even if he’s pushed firmly into three-year deal territory or beyond by now, the Phils can afford that, and at minimum you know you’ve got a plus-plus defender who can hit lefties, while his 2025 has shown he can be substantially more than that.

Cincinnati kid.

• With the reds not resigning Nick Martinez, Gavin Lux and Emilio Pagan for the 2026 season is it realistic to try to bring Kyle Schwarber on a 3 year $90 million dollar deal to be designated hitter in Cincinnati

Steve Adams

• Back in April, I’d have said 3/90 for Schwarber seemed right. Heck, I shouldn’t say “I *would* have said that.” I did say that. But he’s way beyond that now, lack of defensive value notwithstanding. He’s got four years for me, probably at or even a bit north of that $30MM AAV. (Or slightly below, if someone goes nuts and stretches to like 5/140).I think somewhere in the $120-130MM range overall though. And that will shatter precedent for a player at this age and with this lack of defensive utility, but I still expect it. Contractual precedents all fall eventually.

Meow

• 2-3 months back I asked what could possibly stop the run that the Tigers were on for the AL Central. You answered “The Cleveland Guardians” which seemed laughable at the time. So 1) I apologize for laughing and 2) which do you think has been more remarkable, the Tigers plummeting downwards or the Guardians surging upwards?

Steve Adams

• Maybe Anthony or Mark answered that way, but I will be the first to say I did not have this type of foresight and that I’m as amazed/impressed/dumbfounded as anyone else, ha
• I don’t know that I’d have been completely stunned if you told me Detroit slowed down in the second half. I found their deadline astonishingly underwhelming. But the sheer magnitude of the collapse is still a surprise, so I have to give it to them

Natitude

• What’s your take on Dylan Crews?  A universally highly regarded prospect with a difficult beginning to his career.  Cornerstone foundation piece or no?

Steve Adams

• Toss out his first two weeks of the season and he’s an above-average hitter with good batted-ball metrics and a lower-than-average strikeout rate. I think he’s an everyday outfielder for Washington, and a pretty good one (health-permitting, but you can say that about any prospect)

Hunt for Reds October

• You have to give the Reds kids credit for playing their hearts out even though they got no help from the front office.  That starting rotation may make it interesting if they make the postseason, don’t you agree?

Steve Adams

• Love their rotation and would be really excited to watch them in a postseason setting. Hunter Greene is just so good, and while Chase Burns is pitching in relief right now, that looks like such a fun 1-2 combo for the foreseeable future.The lineup is underwhelming, though, and gives me plenty of concern for how they’d fare in a postseason setting where the baked-in off-days allow their opponents to more heavily lean on their top power arms.

Sox

• Red Sox have some good young arms – Tolle, Early, Harrison. How does the rotation shake out next year? I assume Giolito will walk. Crochet and Bello at the top followed by the young guys. Do they add Valdez or someone else in free agency? Take a swing at Joe Ryan again?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll take a swing at Ryan again, yes, and more broadly just be focused on adding at least one starting pitcher. Tolle, Early and Harrison (especially the former two) are a nice trio to dream on. Crochet is an ace. Bello has been very good. Patrick Sandoval will hopefully be healthy. But so much of the rest of their depth has gone down with major injuries, and you simply can’t bank on a group as small as the one we just ran through staying healthy all year.Even if they add a starter of some note — say they sign one of Merrill Kelly, Tyler Mahle, Zach Eflin, etc. — you can probably still get 100+ innings for each of Tolle, Early and Harrison if they all earn it with their performance. Inevitably, someone’s going to need a month for a hamstring or oblique strain, or for shoulder fatigue, or something. And there’s the obvious risk every team runs of something more severe wiping out a whole season for one or more of those arms.

Stevie & The Sterns

• Our repeat of the “sign a value SP who will over achieve” experiment didnt prove successful the second time around. Will we finally spend on a premium arm (who’s also not 45 years old)?

Steve Adams

• Kodai Senga, Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Brandon Sproat, Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Christian Scott and Tylor Megill all still in the rotation mix for next year (maybe not Megill, depending on how the elbow progresses). David Stearns has never shelled out a long-term deal for a starting pitcher, either in Milwaukee or in two offseasons in Queens.I won’t be surprised at all if they add another starter, but I don’t think they’re going to throw five years at Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, etc.

Guest

• *insert generic question here asking about your personal feelings about the ABS system being implemented*

Steve Adams

• Good with me. Some of the changes the game has implemented over the years still irk me (free runner in extra innings, barf) — but pitch clock, ABS, sign me up. It’s frustrating watching umps get the calls wrong, and the technology to correct it is there.

Sir Nerdlington

• Ever since Theo put the ’our offense broke’ into the universe the Cubs offense has proven him correct every September. With the near given that Tucker lands elsewhere, where can they upgrade? Lots of very good, not great players on the offensive side of the ball.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Matt Shaw has done enough to cement himself as the 3B of the future. Alex Bregman will be out there and in the Cubs’ price range. Easy enough to find room for an outfielder, too. They have Happ, PCA and Suzuki heading into 2026, but Happ and Suzuki are free agents in the 2026-27 offseason and PCA’s showing over the past couple months shows there’s still room for improvement there, talented as he is.

MVP

• End of season MVP check, Judge or Cal?

Steve Adams

• I’m a Raleigh guy but it’s so close that I have zero pushback for anyone who says Judge. There are some great seasons beyond that pair — Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Jeremy Pena — but it has to be Judge or Cal this year. They should get all of the first- and second-place votes between them, and beyond that, I don’t think there’s really a “bad” choice.

Galcian

• Does any team even want Arenado this winter?

Steve Adams

• He’s hitting .236/.290/.365. I know he’s a big name with a plus glove and great contact skills, but he’s making almost no impact with the bat. That contract is almost entirely underwater.

Steinbrenner’s ghost

• Who is my doddering son more likely to re-sign: Chisolm or Bellinger?  Or does he finally start acting like me and pay them both?

Steve Adams

• Jazz is still under club control through 2026.
• I can see the Yankees re-signing Bellinger, but there’ll be ample competition. Might depend on the Grisham qualifying offer scenario. I think they have to make it. He feels like he’ll reject, but I don’t know that that’s a total given, and if he accepts it becomes harder to justify throwing five years at Bellinger when you’re already going to have Grisham, Judge, Dominguez, Stanton and (eventually) Spencer Jones in the OF mix — with other needs to address elsewhere on the roster.

Cherrington

• Ashcraft, Chandler, Jones, Skenes, now Barco. Sure seems like Bucs could deal a pitcher for a bat.

Steve Adams

• Plus Keller, Oviedo, Burrows, Harrington and this year’s top pick, Seth Hernandez. Probably some other minor league arms I’m blanking on.
• Yes, they should trade an arm for a bat or bats.
• And that’s coming from the guy who routinely opines that there’s no such thing as a “surplus” in MLB

Skenes 4 MVP

• why isn’t skenes in the conversation for mvp?  he has a higher WAR than Ohtani.

Steve Adams

• In general, pitchers should get more love in MVP voting, I agree. (Zack Wheeler was the 2021 NL MVP, hard stop.)But while WAR isn’t a perfect stat, Skenes doesn’t even have more than Ohtani there. Shohei has 7+ fWAR just as a hitter, plus another 1-2 fWAR or RA9-WAR for pitching. If you go strictly by Baseball-Reference’s version, Skenes has a 0.1 lead on Ohtani, but that’s beyond negligible, and I think the uniqueness of Ohtani’s contributions makes him a pretty clear winner.
• But yeah, Skenes will eventually have a season where he should absolutely be the MVP, and it’ll probably get overlooked. I dislike the manner in which pitchers are just written off in MVP consideration unless they’re having some comically historic season.

MLBTR Fan

• Steve, I sense that you are probably a picky eater for some reason. Are you just a “plain cheese” kinda pizza guy??

Steve Adams

• I’ll eat almost anything, but hey, nothing wrong with a cheese pizza. Not my preference, but if you put it in front of me right now, sure. (Well .. if you put it in front of me an hour ago. I’ve already eaten lunch now. But I digress)

Binky

• Ohio World Series coming soon  – Reds vs Guardians.

Steve Adams

• This would rule. MLB would hate it, but sign me the hell up for a weird WS matchup that no one saw coming.

STL frustrated

• Arenado can still be valuable. Decent pickup if DeWitt is willing to eat 30-40% of the money, which is kind of doubtful since they have taken up the Pittsburgh Miami Tampa spending philosophy.

Steve Adams

• 30-40% of the contract isn’t getting anything. Even if you take away the $5MM the Rox are kicking in next season, he’s still owed $37MM over two years. Arenado isn’t getting two years and $22MM in free agency as a 35-year-old coming off an 80 wRC+. If the Cardinals pay him down to like $5MM per year, maybe someone takes him, but even then, the return is pretty much just going to be salary relief and a nominal warm body.

Topher

• Looking ahead, how is the looming potential (likely) work stoppage going to impact contracts handed out this offseason? More short-term deals likely?

Steve Adams

• I do expect a stoppage in the form of a lockout. I’m not at all convinced said stoppage will actually result in lost games. Manfred isn’t going to want that to be his lasting legacy, and neither the owners nor the players want to run into that scenario. The ’94 strike caused catastrophic long-term damage to the game’s well-being.So really, I don’t think you’re going to see too many players shy away from long-term deals. Those deals might be structured such that there’s a lower salary in ’27 as a potential hedge. Or maybe more contracts with huge signing bonuses, since those aren’t impacted by a lockout the way a player’s salary would be, but I’m not expecting a big rash of one-year deals while guys gear up to sign long-term post-2027.
• Even if there was a huge portion — even the entirety — of the 2027 season lost and you felt like you gamed the system by signing a one-year deal for 2026 … then you’re just a free agent who’s probably 31-32 years old hoping to score a long-term deal after owners can claim pandemic-style “biblical” revenue losses again. I wouldn’t really want to be on the market under those circumstances.

Optimistic Giants Fan

• Do you think the Giants are happy with what Bryce Eldridge has shown? Low average and high strikeouts looks bad at first, but he also has a 90% hard hit rate and has taken some walks.

Steve Adams

• This should be about what they expected, in my view. He’s 20 years old with minimal AAA experience and plenty of strikeout concerns at that level. I think it was fine to give him a look and hope for lightning in a bottle once they pushed back into faint playoff contention, but my expectations were minimal.He’s hitting the ball hard, has mashed at every minor league level, and will likely be just fine going forward. Nothing in his tiny sample of big league games feels like it should change their understandably very bullish outlook on him.

Rays Days

• Even though K Cash’s is contracted through 2030 do you believe a team might be interested in trying to pry him away from the Rays? Will Lowe and Diaz still be with the team next year?

Steve Adams

• I’m sure plenty of teams would love to have Cash managing for them, but it’s been like 10 years since a team effectively traded for a manager. I wouldn’t spend much time considering that possibility.I lean yes on Diaz and no on Lowe (traded), but it’s the Rays, so can’t rule out moving both of them.

Rangers

• Rangers off season outlook this year?⚾️

Steve Adams

• We’re starting up our Offseason Outlook series this week!

Andrew R

• Phillies take Arenado and JoJo Romero for Nick Castellanos! And yes, that means letting Bohm go.

Steve Adams

• I understand the fascination regarding an Arenado trade, but I don’t think that really helps either party. The Cardinals would want to trade Arenado to free up playing time for younger players. Bringing Castellanos back runs counter to that, as does trading a reasonably valuable asset (Romero) just to shed his salary.And for the Phillies, Arenado isn’t even a clear upgrade over Bohm. They could just release Castellanos, eat the $20MM, non-tender Bohm and sign/acquire a better third base stopgap to Aidan Miller.

Filthy

• Does Albies’ latest hamate injury alter the Braves’ calculations on his option?

Steve Adams

• It’s a net $3MM decision and there’s a $7MM option (no buyout) on 2027. I can’t see any way they decline it.

Jeff in Jersey

• By all accounts, the Mets seem to feel bad luck and poor execution, rather than bad process, led to this year’s terrible 2nd half. Your thoughts? Kinda feels like $58 million in Senga (minors), Manaea (hurt then bad) and Montas (hurt, bad, then hurt) is bad process.

Steve Adams

• In general, I didn’t love their offseason slate of pitching additions. Senga’s struggles do feel like some degree of bad luck. He was great prior to the hamstring issue and seemingly developed some bad habits while pitching through it/working back from it. I don’t think you can account for that exact scenario, but by the same token, he also missed most of last year with injury so there should have been (and was) some emphasis on building up the depth.The Montas signing was one of the weirdest deals of the offseason and maybe my most immediately negative reaction to any free agent deal of the winter. Holmes, Canning, Montas … I know today’s front offices are terrified of getting burned by an undesirable long-term deal, but I think so often that just leads to them overpaying on undesirable short-term deals and then needing to go back to the market.
• That’s not to disparage the Holmes deal really, which has worked out as well as could be hoped, but it’s just another instance of trying to kind of gin up a below-market value and getting kind of cute to do so. On its own, fine, but when it’s paired with a bunch of moderately priced upside plays, the quantity-over-quality approach just becomes more glaring. If you don’t want to spend on a Corbin Burnes, that’s totally fine, but for me the move at that point is tapping into the farm to make a play on the trade market rather than throwing a bunch of short-term commitments and hoping some stick.

AA

• Is Bichette a possibility for the Braves? A lot of money coming off the books this year.

Steve Adams

• The Braves haven’t given out more than $65MM to a free agent (Ozuna) under Alex Anthopoulos. I suppose they went after Aaron Nola, but in general, Bichette is just so far beyond what they’ve been willing to do.
• They wouldn’t commit long-term to Fried, Swanson, Freeman … but they’ll push $200MM for Bichette? I don’t see it.

Mike Elias

• Am I really going to trade Adley?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think it’s any kind of given, but I expect teams to inquire and the Orioles to at least give it consideration, particularly if it means getting some notable starting pitching coming back.

Cubs options

• Cubs have 3 pretty fascinating option choices after the year on Imanaga (the weird one), Rea ($4 million), and Kittredge ($9 mil I think?), where do you see them landing on each?

Steve Adams

• Imanaga will be picked up (all three years). I lean toward Kittredge being exercised and Rea being bought out.Kittredge’s option is $9MM but with a $1MM buyout, so it’s a net $8MM that I think they’ll deem reasonable enough.

  Rea’s option is $6MM with a $750K buyout. It’s a net $5.25MM decision. I think that’s more than justifiable based on how he’s pitched, but he’s a 35-year-old with below-average bat-missing ability and a relatively pedestrian fastball.

  I think Rea is certainly worth that cost, but that was also true last year when the Brewers put him on waivers at a similar price point and no one claimed him. His age and skill set isn’t something today’s front offices like to commit money to right out of the gate in the offseason.

Pirates

• Pirates trade Keller to the Angels for OHoppe, Adell and Neto.   Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Angels wouldn’t do Neto straight up for Keller, let alone that trio.

Mariners

• Thoughts on a Naylor and or Suarez resigning with us. Contract size and years?

Steve Adams

• Mariners haven’t given a free-agent hitter more than two years and $24MM (Mitch Garver) under Jerry Dipoto. Jerry said on our podcast — thanks for coming on, Jerry! — that they’re interested in re-signing Naylor, but I can’t help wondering if the length of the deal will just go beyond where they prefer to operate.Suarez’s contract is going to be kind of naturally capped by his age (35), so in a weird, roundabout way I can almost see him as a more realistic target since he’ll come with less long-term risk.

White Sox Fan

• Any value to a Robert for Bohm trade if/when Sox pick up Robert’s option? This helps needs for both teams

Steve Adams

• Bohm is only controlled through 2026. That trade doesn’t do the White Sox any good.

IM

• Will Mayo and/or Mountcastle be on the O’s in 2025 or does Basallo play first and M+M get traded for pitching?

Steve Adams

• Mountcastle isn’t going to bring much in the way of pitching. He’s a non-tender candidate.Mayo, I could see them trading, but his stock has plummeted this year, just as Kjerstad’s has over the past 18 months or so.

  (Trade your prospects!)

• I’ve got to call it for the week.Tim’s mailbag will run tomorrow, and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.

  If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and with me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) our Agency Database, our GM Tracker, our Offseason Outlook series (starting late this week) and more.

  Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!