MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! I’ll get going around 1pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
• Good afternoon! Let’s get underway

Derek

• Do Alec Bohm and A Garcia get non tendered? Not sure either team wants to commit 10+million to them

Steve Adams

• I think Bohm will be non-tendered. Garcia has a chance to be traded somewhere to a team looking to buy low, but a NT is still possible there. I think he’s done with the Rangers one way or another.

Brooklyngail

• Your prediction. Does HSK pick up his option and stay in Atlanta or does he test the market?

Steve Adams

• No, I expect him to head back to the market. He got more than 1/16 when he was fresh off shoulder surgery. Even if it’s another two-year deal with an opt-out, he should be able to lock in more guaranteed money now that he’s healthy — plus the market is devoid of actual shortstop options.Braves could always try to get him to sign on for a new three- or four-year deal before he declines the option, but if my choices are “he exercises it or declines it,” I’m pretty comfortably in the latter camp.

Depressed Oriole

• Mountcastle worth 8 mil in a trade or non tender more likely?

Steve Adams

• I’d lean toward the non-tender, but he’s not a Nate Lowe-esque lock to be non-tendered. I could see a team giving up a negligible return to plug him in at 1B/DH at that price.

Squints

• Does Woody end up back with Brewers next year?

Steve Adams

• No, I fully expect him to turn down his end of the mutual option and land a multi-year deal beyond what the Brewers feel they can pay. Given how adept they’ve proven at finding affordable starting pitching, paying market price for Woodruff coming off shoulder/lat injuries doesn’t seem like the best use of their resources — fan favorite or not.

Guest

• Rank the projected total contract value of the top SP this winter: Bieber, Valdez, King, and Suarez

Steve Adams

• Framber and Ranger are ahead of Bieber and King based on recent health, age and track record. I’d probably go Bieber ahead of King right now just because King’s health is a total wild card and Bieber is healthy/pitching in October.Valdez and Suarez are both comfortable nine-figure guys for me

Ian

• Any realistic landing spots for Alonso other than the Mets?

Steve Adams

• Plenty. I don’t think he’ll be back in Queens. Red Sox, Angels, Reds, Mariners, Padres, Rangers, Guardians all make varying degrees of sense, though skeptical about the Texas fit after the Bochy departure and the “financial uncertainty” talk. Obviously not all of those teams are realistic fits (Cleveland’s not paying him $100MM+), but having some of those clubs on the periphery of the market is enough to keep some of the others bidding more seriously. Pretty good fit in Boston, where Craig Breslow sidestepped when asked if he could commit to Casas as his 1B next year the other day.

Adge

• Do you like Toronto to sign one of Bieber, Framber, King, Cease, Woodruff,or Ranger,

Steve Adams

• I like the Jays to add at least one notable starter this winter, yeah — whether that’s signing one of those guys or trading for a Mitch Keller, Joe Ryan, whoever.Currently they have Gausman, Yesavage, Berrios, Lauer and a bunch of question marks. (Lauer is a question himself, really)

  And after 2026, Gausman is a free agent and Berrios can opt out. I think they’ll be in the market for multiple SPs

MoonbeamMcSwine

• Does Chaim Bloom “clean house” w/ the Cardinals.. choosing to stock their farm system over competing against perhaps the toughest division in baseball (w/ Milwaukee & Chicago)?

Steve Adams

• I don’t expect too many “untouchables” for the Cards this winter. They’re not moving Masyn Winn or JJ Wetherholt, but beyond the pricey veterans (Arenado, Gray, Contreras) I expect them to be open to offers on Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, JoJo Romero, etc. etc.

Larry from Clarksville

• Can you explain Imanaga’s contract and if you think the Cubs exercise the club option given his alarming home run issues?

Steve Adams

• Cubs have to choose whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option — effectively extending him through 2028. If they decline, he can pick up a $15MM player option for 2026 or decline and head to free agency.If Imanaga exercises his player option, the Cubs would have a two-year club option after 2026. If the team declined that, he’d have another player option for 2027.
• I am increasingly coming around on the idea that maybe they just don’t want to commit $19MM per year to him for another three seasons, which would’ve seemed silly to me a few months ago. I was texting a bit with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco about this last night. Tim, being in Chicago and closer to the situation than I am up in St. Paul, said he still leans toward the Cubs taking the safe route and picking up the option, but yeah … them declining is definitely a scenario that seems plausible now in a way that was not true even in like, July.
• I think if the Cubs decline their option, he’ll turn down the player option and do better than $15MM on the open market.

Adam W.

• Will Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman get a bigger free agent contract this winter?

Steve Adams

• Bregman, easily

Craig

• Wandy Peralta of the Padres has a 4.45 million player option for 2026.  Do you think he exercises the option to remain in San Diego or does he decline and become a free agent?

Steve Adams

• I could see it going either way but I lean toward exercising it since he also has a $4.45MM player option for 2027. He’s guaranteed two years and $8.9MM right now, and the last time he was a free agent (two years younger, throwing a bit harder and with a better K%), the market didn’t exactly love him.

Luxury Tax

• Does contract money changing hands a/effect a teams luxury tax total? If the Reds were to add an expensive player via trade this winter but the former team sends some money with that player, how does the luxury tax “hit” get allocated? All on Cinci because they have the player? readjusted for Cinci because their dollars will be smaller than the contract? *Cinci used as a placeholder since we all know they will never approach even the hint of Luxury Tax waters*

Steve Adams

• The money changing hands impacts the CBT hit. If the Cardinals were to trade Sonny Gray back to Cincinnati for a reunion (sticking with your “this won’t happen” motif), the CBT hit would be recalibrated to reflect what’s remaining on the contract. So for the Cardinals, Gray has been a $25MM CBT hit. He signed a three-year, $75MM deal, and CBT hits are based on AAV.When the player is traded, however, the acquiring team is taxed based on what’s left. Gray would be a $40MM CBT hit for the Reds.

  If the Cards kicked in $25MM to help offset that, then he’d still count $25MM against the Cardinals’ tax number and $15MM against the Reds’.

• (That $40MM being derived from Gray’s $35MM salary in 2026 plus the $5MM buyout on his 2027 option)

TxDude

• Will we ever see the Red Sox be a force in free agency like they used to be? I feel like it was always either Boston or New York that all the FAs wanted to sign with

Steve Adams

• They just guaranteed $120MM to Bregman last winter!But I get the question. That was more an opportunistic “soft” (heavy usage of air quotes there, haha) landing for Bregman. I imagine at some point, they’ll be more willing to spend aggressively early in the winter but think the actions of ownership over the past five to eight years have increasingly suggested they prefer not to revisit the “let’s beat the market for a 31-year-old David Price” well anytime soon.
• So … probably somewhere in between the two extremes we’ve seen. Possibly as soon as this winter, since I do think they’ll look into higher-end SPs

Carson

• Is there a team that would be interested in a Josh Jung trade? He surely has some value with 3 remaining years of club control and a relatively cheap projected $3M ARB1.

Steve Adams

• Absolutely. Tigers, Pirates, Nats, Marlins, Mariners, Royals (move Maikel Garcia to 2B) … I can think of plenty who’d love to roll the dice on Jung, and I do think the Rangers will be open to exploring that possibility this winter.

Cleveland

• Think we could pry one of Adley/Neto with our farm?

Steve Adams

• Neto feels like an extreme long shot. Rutschman a bit more plausible, but Mike Elias has spoken repeatedly — including on our podcast — about how he fully anticipates Adley to be catching in Baltimore next year. He’s naturally stopped short of definitively declaring “I will not trade this player,” but they’d be selling low and Basallo hasn’t exactly shown he’s ready for a full season as a big league catcher yet. O’s also probably aren’t all that keen on dealing Rutschman “just” for prospects.(Nor would the Angels be keen on doing that with Neto, for what it’s worth)

PolarBearLeaving?

• You mentioned Alonso and also Bregman.  If what you say is true about Alonso leaving/not being resigned, what about the Mets signing Bregman to play 3rd and Murakami to play 1st.  That would certainly change the vibe and core and you might make up some (but not all) of Alonso

Steve Adams

• Yeah I think the Mets will be in on both Bregman and Munetaka Murakami, who, for those unaware, is a 25-year-old (26 in Feb) corner infielder who’s hit 22 homers in 224 PAs in Japan this season and will be posted in the offseason. He also has significant defensive and strikeout concerns, but he’s still going to get paid by a major league team because of the 80 raw power.

John

• Could Cedric Mullins return to the Orioles?

Steve Adams

• If he’s out there in February and hasn’t found a deal to his liking, sure I can see him going back for a year. I wouldn’t predict it as likely, but it’s not as through any bridges were burned there (at least not that I’m aware of)

Mr. Skenes

• Am I pitching for the Pirates next year?

Steve Adams

• Yyyyyyyup

Allen

• Brooks Lee didn’t make a claim to his SS spot after the Correa trade. Are there any SS available in trade? Preferably in the Twins budget

Steve Adams

• They’ll give Lee a full year to show whether he can hack it, and if not, they’ve got Kaelen Culpepper, another former first-rounder and top-100-y guy, coming along relatively quickly

@tayyyburrr

• Lifelong Padre fan here. Does AJ Preller get any credit for at least trying to build a winner?  I know “we” haven’t won anything, but being an annual “contender” has to count for something, right?!?

Steve Adams

• Gets credit from me. I wish there were more GMs/presidents of baseball ops like Preller, Dipoto, Dombrowski, etc.
• I feel like so many baseball ops leaders today operate with a risk-averse approach, so as not to risk their job security. And that’s understandable! These guys are paid enormous seven-figure salaries. But it’s also boring. Give me chaos. Always chaos. It’s more fun. Preller is pure entertainment. And he’s better than his detractors give him credit for.

Craig Breslow

• Would the Royals take Duran straight up for Bubic?  Should I?

Steve Adams

• The Royals would. The Red Sox wouldn’t.
• Three years of control remaining for Duran to one for Bubic.

BeBopCola

• What was your preseason World Series pick and what is it now?

Steve Adams

• Dodgers over Mariners so now I have to stubbornly stick to it!

GM job

• As an impartial non Rockies fan. who would want their GM job given the terrible state of affairs throughout their organization ?  They have almost no chance of making the playoffs for many years in the NL West with LA,SD, AZ and SF.  Thanks.

Steve Adams

• There’s only 30 of these jobs, first and foremost. So yes, plenty of people would want it. Beyond that, imagine being able to claim your legacy as the person who finally brought winning baseball to Colorado. You’d be a legend.Any front office leader is hypercompetitive and driven by challenge. Turning the Rockies around is an Everest-ian challenge (to use a terrible mountain-related analogy)

Jim

• What prospects would the A’s have to give up in order to get Brady Singer from the Reds?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Singer would cost a ton in trade. He has a little surplus value, probably, but one year of him at $12MM … it’s not like he’s some raucous, unmitigated bargain. Couple middle-of-the-pack prospects (40 FV types) probably gets it done. He’d cost less than Springs cost them last winter.

Natitude

• Zac Gallen a fit in Washington?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think the Nats will be aiming that high in free agency, but any pitcher who can be reasonably expected to pitch anywhere close to league-average innings is a “fit” in D.C. based on what they have on the depth chart right now.Still amazed that the Nats (and Rockies, especially) passed on Alek Manoah. Don’t get me wrong, he’s probably just bad now, but for a bit more than $2MM, why not take the shot? He has minor league options left!

Cards

• Am I the only cardinal fan that still has high hopes for Gorman? Sure he strikes out a ton and has a low average but I still believe there’s a 40 homer slugger around the corner.

Steve Adams

• I think there should be a balance between “having hopes” and “having high hopes.”Hoping for Gorman to turn into a decent strikeout-prone slugger who’s a defensive liability but hits righties well enough to be a 2-ish win player, sure. But a 40-homer season from a guy whose power has dropped in consecutive seasons and who’s fanned in 34% of his career plate appearances feels ambitious to me.

PJ

• You see Bendix aggressively trying to move Sandy this offseason or has he backed off on the prospect?

Steve Adams

• I see him listening to whatever offers are presented and being content to carry Alcantara into the season if he’s getting low-balled coming off an uneven season.

Hector Villanueva

• Where are earth so the Cubs play Moises next year. I think he’s ready, but he’s not an MLB catcher, they have Busch at 1st, and Suzuki at DH.

Steve Adams

• They don’t need to pencil him in for 600 PAs. They can option him, and injuries will create openings for him. Plus, they could wind up playing Suzuki in the OF more if (when?) Tucker signs elsewhere. Obviously they still have Alcantara, but he didn’t exactly set the world on fire in AAA this year.Even if they were to go with Happ-PCA-Alcantara in the outfield and Suzuki at DH, there’s still a path for Ballesteros to get 300+ plate appearances next year with minimal time at catcher. And come 2027, Happ and Suzuki are free agents, which only makes it easier to get Moises into the lineup.

HomerHanky

• Besides a new manager, what do YOU believe are the Twins biggest needs this off-seeason?

Steve Adams

• An entire bullpen

Yates to Rangers?

• Hi Steve. With Kirby Yates having a lousy year with the Dodgers, do you think a reunion to be the Rangers closer is possible?

Steve Adams

• Plausible enough, but no reason to necessarily think it’s likely

Melchez

• The Rockies need some talent… 1. Trade Kyle Freeland for prospect(s)… 2. Sign aging free agents looking for a chance to build up value and flip at deadline (1B Carlos Santana, DH Marcel Ozuna, CF Cedric Mullins) and 3. what’s stopping them from loading up on rule 5 guys?  They have very little on the farm that’s close.  Rockies have a long road ahead.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Freeland nets them much in a trade.A 40-year-old Carlos Santana’s not getting anything at next year’s deadline. Mullins, sure … adding some closer-to-prime-aged pillow guys like that makes sense, but those guys will have understandable concerns about playing at altitude regularly and what it does to recovery and performing on the road.

  Rule 5? Sure, go nuts. They should have several roster spots to work with, and I agree, why not grab two, three — even four guys if you like them better than what’s in your system? Obviously they won’t all stick, but might as well take some looks in spring training/early in the season.

Pontiac bandit

• Steve, forgot about Owen Cassie in the Cubs OF next year, higher grade prospect then Alcantara.

Steve Adams

• Ah yeah true, brain fart. Point generally still stands though. Two OF spots open post-2026, and injuries create ample opportunity, especially when the OF/DH is a carousel of 3-4 guys.
• Or rather a carousel of 4-5 guys. Words. Numbers. Hard. Brain no work good.

Roper

• Could the Redbirds and Rangers match up on a Gray-Semien trade?

Steve Adams

• The Cardinals want to create more opportunities for younger players. Bringing Semien aboard when he’s signed for three more years doesn’t really accomplish that. They’d much prefer to just keep Gray and have him eat innings until the deadline.

I don’t know’s on 3rd

• This the year the M’s acually spend big on a hitter(not like the 2/24  Garv got)??

Steve Adams

• It’s just not really Jerry Dipoto’s preferred method of team-building, but I could see them at least trying to re-sign either Geno or Naylor (former feels likelier, given the prior connection and the fact that he’ll naturally be capped to a shorter term because of the age discrepancy)

Cardinals

• What team do you think would actually take the contract of Sonny Gray? Mets, Giants, Phillies, Braves or Orioles have the money, maybe the Angels or Tigers as outside?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think anyone would take the whole contract
• $40MM for one year is too steep for Gray — particularly for a team like the Mets or Phillies, who are third-time luxury payors in the top tier of penalty. It’s a 110% tax for them, meaning Gray costs them $84MM for one year.
• Cardinals need to eat $10-12MM or so just to move him for no return. Probably $15MM+ to get any kind of semi-decent prospect.

Twins fan

• Do you think Lewin Diaz will get MLB interest again after his 50 homer season in Korea?

Steve Adams

• I do
• Teams passed him around waivers like 10 times a few offseasons ago because they love the glove at 1B and he had power upside. He’s still under 30. I don’t think he’s going to sign a mammoth contract or anything, but yeah I think he has a real chance to get a major league deal

Still-Krazy

• Does Ke’Bryan Hayes have any trade value

Steve Adams

• Reds took basically the whole contract and gave up an actual prospect at the deadline. Hayes hit better in CIN than in PIT (albeit not much better). He could have some marginal value, but the Reds don’t make that trade if they’re not interested in keeping him for the foreseeable future.

dub nation..under God

• can Reds…in any way….sign Schworber?

Steve Adams

• Sure. If they offer more money than the Phillies. Simple, right?! Haha… It’s not likely, but hey, Schwarber’s from Cincinnati area.I would not bet on it, but I imagine they’ll talk to him and give it some kind of try.

Dale

• Would a Taylor Ward for Brady Singer trade make sense?

Steve Adams

• I think there’s some sense to that, yeah.

pitching chaos for everyone

• The best ways to improve Mets defense is let Alonso leave, trade for Hoerner, and move Soto to primary DH. Any of those remotely likely?

Steve Adams

• I think they’ll let Pete leave. The others, not particularly likely.

My name jeff

• Where will nolan arenado get traded to this winter, and what will it take to get him

Steve Adams

• This is framed like Arenado has positive value. He does not. It’ll take the Cardinals eating $30MMish of his remaining contract.

Oz

• No mention of Raisel Iglesias.  What kind of contract does he get?

Steve Adams

• No reliever in the past decade has gotten more than 2 years for a free agent contract or extension starting at age 36 or older. So Iglesias is probably capped at two years. The high end of this range is Blake Treinen getting two years and $22MM total.I think Iglesias comes in around 1/14 or 2/20.
• (If you like that sort of answer, you can research stuff like that within seconds in our Contract Tracker!)

Dave

• Do the Royals cut bait on India or pay him 9 million and hope he doens’t suck again?

Steve Adams

• Non-tender

Ang T

• Would adding 1 yr/$25M be enough to keep Edwin Diaz from opting out of his contract with the Mets?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think so, but he re-upped in Queens really quickly last time, so maybe he’s just motivated to stay put. But I think his market value is $80MMish over four years, and tacking on 1/25 really “only” brings him closer to 3/60.

Jason

• does trevor larnach have any trade value or is he a non-tender?

Steve Adams

• Can see him being flipped  for a nominal return. I don’t think he’s netting much, but low-spending/payroll-crunched teams might be intrigued as a change-of-scenery guy and his arb price is under $5MM
• I’ve got to call it for the week.Tim’s mailbag will run later today (I think) or possibly tomorrow, and Anthony will have a subscriber chat on Friday. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.

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  Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!