Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks' pitching staff was battered by injuries, leading to a deadline sell-off of most of their impending free agents. Arizona played surprisingly well in the second half to remain in the Wild Card picture. They came up a little short of a postseason berth, and they're now faced with the task of rebuilding the pitching while navigating an expected payroll cut.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Corbin Burnes, RHP: $170MM through 2030 ($10-11MM deferred annually; Burnes can opt out after '26)
• Ketel Marte, 2B: $102.5MM through 2031 (Marte can opt out after '30)
• Corbin Carroll, RF: $102MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
• Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $46MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 mutual/vesting option)
• Geraldo Perdomo, SS: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option; 2028-30 salaries likely to escalate with expected top 10 MVP finish)
• Brandon Pfaadt, RHP: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF: $18MM player option for 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
• Justin Martinez, RHP: $14.5MM through 2029 (deal includes club options for 2030-32)

Option Decisions

• LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has $18MM player option ($13MM salary plus $5MM buyout on '27 club option valued at $14MM)

Additional financial commitment: Owe $100K buyout to released RHP Kendall Graveman

2026 guarantees: $101.1MM
Total future commitments: $543.1MM through 2031

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
• A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
• Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
• Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
• John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
• Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
• Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
• Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
• Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
• Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
• Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM

Non-tender candidates: Vargas, Puk, Thompson, Ginkel, Curtiss, Kyle Nelson, McCarthy

Free Agents

• Zac Gallen, Jalen Beeks, James McCann

A few hints about the Diamondbacks' winter have already emerged courtesy of owner Ken Kendrick. The team's solid performance after the trade deadline ensured that skipper Torey Lovullo and his coaching staff would be back with as little as one change. The expectation will still be to contend, but the front office will have less payroll room with which to work. Kendrick said that the club plans to reduce spending after pushing the payroll to a franchise-record $187MM Opening Day mark this year (via Cot's Baseball Contracts).

Arizona will have around $100MM in guaranteed commitments once Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is recovering from ACL surgery, inevitably passes on the chance to opt out of the remaining $18MM on his contract. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the arbitration class to come in around $26MM if everyone were tendered a contract. Only Gabriel Moreno, Ryne Nelson, Alek Thomas and probably Pavin Smith feel like locks for that. Ildemaro Vargas, John Curtiss, Kevin Ginkel and Kyle Nelson should all be fairly easy cuts. That leaves a handful of borderline tender decisions.

Whether to bring back A.J. Puk is entirely a health question. He's one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, but he underwent internal brace surgery in June. That's the second UCL procedure of his career. The internal brace usually comes with a lesser recovery timeline than the full Tommy John reconstruction. If the D-Backs expect Puk to return around the All-Star Break, they should pay the $3-4MM which he'd make in arbitration.

If they're projecting more of a 14-15 month timeline that'd raise doubts about his availability for the entire season, a non-tender has to be a consideration. Puk will be a free agent after the '26 campaign, so there's no point tendering him a contract just to rehab. The Snakes could also reach out to Puk's camp before the non-tender deadline to see if they're open to a two-year deal that'd ensure the pitcher gets paid next year while the team gets the upside of a full season in 2027.

Ryan Thompson is coming off a middling season and missed most of the second half with a shoulder strain. He pitched well in September and the Snakes need bullpen help, but a near-$4MM projection feels a bit rich. Meanwhile, Jake McCarthy is coming off a sub-replacement season in which he hit .204/.247/.345 across 222 big league plate appearances. He'll be out of minor league options. McCarthy has had flashes of MLB success and is projected for a sub-$2MM salary, but the Snakes could try to shop him in a sell-low trade. If they don't find any interest, they'll need to decide whether to tender him a contract as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

While the Diamondbacks have a fairly large arbitration class, their deadline sale left them with only three impending free agents. Journeyman reliever Jalen Beeks and backup catcher James McCann each played their roles well enough. The Diamondbacks could get either of them back on a cheap one-year deal. Their biggest potential loss is Zac Gallen, a one-time candidate for a nine figure deal who hits the market after an uneven showing.

Gallen pitched so poorly in the first half that Arizona didn't find a trade offer to their liking. They were comfortable making him a $22.025MM qualifying offer if other clubs didn't meet their asking price. Gallen is still expected to decline the QO coming off a 4.83 ERA over 33 starts. He's represented by the Boras Corporation, which has had success finding two-year deals with an opt-out rather than straight one-year pillow contracts. Gallen, who is going into his age-30 season, is a candidate for that kind of deal.

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