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2025-26 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The 119-loss Rockies were one of the worst teams in baseball history.  Can a front office shakeup (and an unexpected choice as the new baseball operations head) get the organization pointed in the right direction?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kris Bryant, 1B/OF: $78MM through 2028
  • Ezequiel Tovar, SS: $56.5MM through 2030 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2031)
  • Kyle Freeland, SP: $16MM through 2026 (deal contains conditional player option for 2027)
  • Antonio Senzatela, SP/RP: $12MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

2026 financial commitments: $59MM
Total future commitments: $162.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The fact that Colorado is the last Offseason Outlook entry published (even after the World Series teams) speaks to the unusual length of the team's front office search.  The free agent market opened yesterday, and the leaderless baseball operations department has already been making some transactions since the World Series officially ended, though the decisions to decline mutual options on Thairo Estrada and Kyle Farmer were both routine and expected.

The Rockies' struggles are usually attributed to owner Dick Monfort's extreme loyalty to longtime employees, resulting in an organization that has fallen behind the curve in fresh ideas and in most aspects of modern roster construction.  Three straight 100-loss seasons and a gruesome 43-119 record in 2025 was enough to make even the notoriously insular Monfort realize that changes needed to be made.  Manager Bud Black was fired back in May, and GM Bill Schmidt was let go at season's end.

This winter marked the first time that Monfort had actually done a formal external search for a head of baseball operations.  Dan O'Dowd was already the general manager when the Monfort brothers bought the team in 2005.  O'Dowd continued in the job until 2014, and successors Jeff Bridich and Schmidt were internal promotions.

Walker Monfort's new role as Colorado's executive VP led to some inevitable accusations of nepotism, though reports indicate that the younger Monfort (Dick's son) has been pushing for the Rox to adopt a new approach.  The impact could be seen in Paul DePodesta's hiring as president of baseball operations, plus the fact that the other known candidates for the top job in baseball ops -- Guardians assistant GM Matt Forman, Diamondbacks assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, and former Astros general manager James Click -- had no prior ties to Colorado's organization.

In classic Rockies fashion, however, the front office search wasn't exactly routine.  It seemed like Forman and Sawdaye were the finalists, except reports then emerged that the two were out of the running, with Sawdaye reportedly turning down a job offer and Forman taking himself out of the process.  Former Rockies reliever Adam Ottavino unexpectedly then emerged as a known candidate, throwing another curveball into the process that was ultimately ended when yesterday's news broke about DePodesta's hiring.

DePodesta has two decades of MLB front office experience with five different teams, including a two-year (2004-05) run as the Dodgers' general manager and five years working as Billy Beane's chief lieutenant with the Moneyball-era Athletics.  It's the kind of distinguished resume that most Colorado fans were probably hoping to see from the Rockies' hire....except for the oddity of DePodesta spending the last decade working outside of baseball as the Cleveland Browns' chief strategy officer.

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2025-26 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is back, as we break down what all 30 teams could have in store for their roster machinations this winter.  Going forward, the Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.

This post will be updated as more Outlooks are published.

AL West

AL Central

AL East

NL West

NL Central

NL East

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers have won back-to-back World Series. They aren't losing any major contributors to free agency, so they'll go into the winter with a really strong roster and the ability to bolster it further.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH: $560MM through 2033 ($68MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: $260MM through 2035 (deal includes multiple opt-out chances, beginning after 2029 or any season in which he is traded)
  • Mookie Betts, SS: $235MM through 2032 (includes $40MM of signing bonus still to be paid out; $10MM of salary deferred annually in 2026-27, $11MM annually 2028-32)
  • Blake Snell, LHP: $104MM through 2029 ($13.2MM of salary deferred annually; deal includes conditional club option for 2030)
  • Will Smith, C: $83.45MM through 2033 ($5MM of salary is deferred annually)
  • Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $81.5625MM through 2028 (2028 is either $21.5625MM player option or $30MM club option)
  • Tanner Scott, LHP: $56MM through 2028 (includes $15MM of signing bonus still to be paid out; $5.25MM of salary deferred annually; deal includes 2029 conditional option)
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $54MM through 2027 ($12MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Tommy Edman, IF/OF: $52MM through 2029 (includes $3MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2030; $6.25MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Teoscar Hernández, OF: $33MM through 2027 (includes $6.5MM buyout on $15MM club option; deal also includes conditional 2029 option; $8MM of salary deferred annually)
  • Blake Treinen, RHP: $13.5MM through 2026 (includes $2.5MM of signing bonus still to be paid out)
  • Hyeseong Kim, IF/OF: $9MM through 2027 (including $1.5MM buyout of $10MM two-year club option for 2028-29)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • Team has $10MM club option on 3B Max Muncy with no buyout
  • Team has $3.65MM club option on LHP Alex Vesia with $50K buyout (Vesia would remain controllable via arbitration even if option is declined)

2026 guarantees (assuming both options are picked up): $283.15MM ($127.7MM deferred)
Total future commitments: $1.559 billion ($792.55MM deferred)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Graterol, Gonsolin, Phillips, Banda, Stewart, Rortvedt, Grove

Free Agents

The Dodgers have a strong willingness to bet on talent and not worry so much about injury concerns. That is partly due to their almost unlimited budget, which allows them to take risks other clubs may not be able to afford. It's also because the lineup is so good that they are almost guaranteed to make the playoffs each year, which gives them the wiggle room to let their players get healthy as opposed to rushing them back during the regular season.

This has led to some inconsistency in how things end up when October rolls around. In 2023, they were so banged up that they were swept out of the ALDS by the Diamondbacks. In 2024, the Dodgers had just enough of a rotation to win the title. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler were the three traditional starters as the club relied heavily on the bullpen. In 2025, that flipped. The bullpen had been stripped down by injuries but the rotation had Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Shohei Ohtani all healthy. Manager Dave Roberts tried to avoid his traditional relievers as much as possible. He often allowed his starters to pitch deep into games. In Game Seven of the World Series, he used all four of Ohtani, Glasnow, Snell and Yamamoto.

Going into 2026, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Dodgers target more pitching, but the rotation is actually in good shape. The four starters they were using in this year's playoffs are all healthy and under contract. Roki Sasaki wound up in the bullpen due to some shoulder trouble but he could be stretched back out next year. Guys like Emmet Sheehan, Jack Dreyer, Ben Casparius, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller and Justin Wrobleski worked both as starters and relievers in 2025 and could be in the mix for starts again next year. Each of Kyle Hurt, River Ryan and Gavin Stone spent 2025 recovering from surgery but should be factors next year. Top prospect Jackson Ferris now has 33 Double-A games under his belt and should be in Triple-A next year.

Nick Frasso finished 2025 hurt and his current status isn't clear. Tony Gonsolin will likely be non-tendered since he underwent internal brace surgery and will miss at least the first half of 2026, though the Dodgers could afford to pay him and hope for a late-season return if they wanted to. Michael Grove missed all of 2025 due to shoulder surgery and could also be non-tendered, though he can still be controlled for three more seasons.

However it plays out, it's an impressive collection of talent, even with Clayton Kershaw retiring. The club has been very active in adding pitching in recent offseasons. After their aforementioned rough ending in 2023, they added Ohtani. However, he wasn't an immediate upgrade to the staff since he was recovering from surgery at the time, so they also added Glasnow and Yamamoto. Coming into this year, they signed Snell.

With the depth suddenly looking overwhelming, the Dodgers may not be as aggressive on the free agent starting pitching market. In fact, there are so many names on the chart that they could probably trade some away, though they could also opt to hold and just have lots of depth on hand for the inevitable injuries that will arise.

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Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After falling painfully short in the World Series, the Blue Jays now face the challenge of keeping their core roster together, starting with the possible departure of cornerstone Bo Bichette.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: $480MM through 2039
  • Andres Gimenez, 2B/SS: $86.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
  • Jose Berrios, SP: $66MM through 2028 (Berrios can opt out of contract after the 2026 season)
  • Anthony Santander, OF/DH: $65.5MM through 2029 (includes $5MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2030; Santander has opt-out after 2027 season that Jays can override by increasing salary and exercising 2030 option)
  • Alejandro Kirk, C: $52MM through 2030
  • Kevin Gausman, SP: $23MM through 2026
  • George Springer, OF/DH: $22.5MM through 2026
  • Jeff Hoffman, RP: $22MM through 2027
  • Yariel Rodriguez, RP: $17MM through 2028 (includes $6MM player option for 2028; Blue Jays have $10MM club option if Rodriguez declines)
  • Myles Straw, OF: $8.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Blue Jays also have $8.5MM club option for 2028 with $500K buyout; Guardians paying $2.75MM to Jays as condition of January 2025 trade)
  • Yimi Garcia, RP: $7.5MM through 2026

Option Decisions

  • Shane Bieber, SP: $16MM player option for 2026 ($4MM buyout)

2026 financial commitments (assuming Bieber declines player option): $164.75MM
Total future commitments (assuming Bieber declines player option): $850.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

As devastating as Game 7 was for the Blue Jays and their fans, the rest of the 2025 season was an unqualified success.  The club won its first AL East title in 10 years and its first AL pennant since 1993, in a stunning turn-around for a club that finished in last place in the AL East just a season ago (and held a modest 26-28 record through the first two months of 2025).

Just about every single Toronto hitter improved on their 2024 numbers, turning the Jays into a dangerous all-around offense fueled by putting the ball in play, high-volume and quality contact, and timely (if not always consistent) power.  Bichette was a key element of this formula.  After struggling with injuries and inconsistent play since August 2023, he returned to his old self in 2025 by hitting .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs over 628 plate appearances.  Those numbers likely would've been even stronger if Bichette wasn't sidelined by a left PCL sprain in early September, which kept him out of action until the World Series.  Even while clearly limited in terms of running or normal flexibility, Bichette still hit .348/.444/.478 over 27 PA during the Fall Classic.

Bichette has stated that he won't need a knee surgery this winter, and while we could perhaps wait a few days to make sure Bichette wasn't just trying to tough it out for the postseason, it would seem like his PCL sprain shouldn't leave him any worse for wear for Opening Day 2026.  That means the Blue Jays and other suitors will probably feel comfortable in bidding normally on the All-Star now that he's hitting the open market.

There has been speculation for years about how the Jays would approach the free agencies of Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the 2025-26 offseason, and the Guerrero debate was firmly answered last April when the two sides agreed to a 14-year, $500MM extension.  With such a big commitment made to Guerrero, of course, that only raised fresh questions about Bichette's future.  Especially when coming off a down year in 2024 and with the Jays acquiring Andres Gimenez last winter, it seemed like Toronto was preparing itself to let Bichette walk.

The team's magical run in 2025 may have changed the equation.  Ownership and the front office may have some natural inclination to try and run it back (as much as possible) with a roster that came two outs away from a championship.  The Rogers Communications ownership group is very wealthy and has been comfortable in taking the Blue Jays' payroll into luxury tax territory in both 2023 and 2025, including the team's record high payroll and tax number this season.  (Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates payroll at $254MM and the tax number at roughly $278.8MM, while RosterResource estimates a $257.8MM payroll and a $282.7MM tax number that would put the Jays over the third penalty tier.)

Would the Blue Jays be willing to pay something in the $150MM-$200MM range on Bichette and add yet another long-term deal to a ledger that already has over $850MM in future commitments?  Guerrero alone takes up a big chunk of that $850MM-plus figure, but the Blue Jays also have to factor in other potential expenditures.  As we'll explore later in the outlook, Toronto will again need to make some investments in its rotation, and Kevin Gausman is a free agent next winter.  Extending George Springer didn't seem like a consideration a year ago, but after Springer's big comeback season, the Jays must now at least be thinking about retaining the veteran when his current deal is up next winter.

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Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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The Red Sox finally made it back to the postseason this year, though their third place finish in the AL East and a quick exit in the Wild Card Series at the hands of the Yankees leaves fans hoping for more in 2026.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Garrett Crochet, LHP: $166MM through 2031 (deal includes conditional $15MM club option for 2032; can opt out after 2030)
  • Roman Anthony, OF: $125MM through 2033 (deal includes $30MM club option for 2034)
  • Brayan Bello, RHP: $50.5MM through 2029 (includes $1MM buyout on $21MM club option for 2030)
  • Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF: $47MM through 2032 (includes $4MM buyout on $19MM club option for 2033, deal includes $21MM club option for 2034)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/2B: $46MM through 2031 (includes $4MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2032)
  • Masataka Yoshida, DH: $36MM through 2027
  • Jordan Hicks, RHP: $24MM through 2027
  • Aroldis Chapman, LHP: $13.3MM through 2026 (includes $300K buyout on $13MM vesting option for 2027)
  • Patrick Sandoval, LHP: $12.75MM through 2026
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $8.25MM through 2026 (includes $1MM buyout on $8.25MM club option for 2027, deal includes $10.5MM club option for 2028)

Option Decisions:

  • Alex Bregman, 3B: Will opt out of $80MM through 2027 ($40MM deferred)
  • Trevor Story, SS: Can opt out of final $50MM through 2027. If opt out exercised, Red Sox can either void it by exercising $25MM club option or pay Story a $5MM buyout.
  • Lucas Giolito, RHP: $19MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout.
  • Liam Hendriks, RHP: $12MM mutual option with $2MM buyout.
  • Jarren Duran, OF: $8MM club option with $100K buyout. Eligible for arbitration if option is declined.

Total 2026 commitments: $168.9MM
Total future commitments: $662.4MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Much of Boston's offseason will be dictated by the opt out decisions made by the left side of the club's infield. Alex Bregman is already expected to opt out of his contract and return to the open market, but it's not yet clear whether or not Trevor Story will follow in those footsteps. With no locked in starter at second base and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow unwilling to commit to Triston Casas at first base for next year, it's not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Red Sox are looking to reshape their entire infield as they look for defensive upgrades.

At the very least, they'll need to either re-sign or replace Bregman. Re-signing the veteran coming off his third career All-Star appearance may prove to be the most sensible course of action. While he'll be seeking a true long-term deal this winter as he heads into his age-32 campaign, it would be difficult to find the sort of production Bregman offers elsewhere. Just three third basemen (Jose Ramirez, Junior Caminero, and Isaac Paredes) posted a higher wRC+ than Bregman's 125 this year, and Fangraphs' Def metric pegs Bregman as the seventh-most valuable defensive third baseman in baseball this year despite a quad injury limiting him to just 114 games.

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros missed the postseason for the first time in a decade, and now they'll enter the offseason in the unfamiliar position of underdogs in the AL West.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • None

Total 2026 commitments: $155.85MM
Total future commitments: $407.35MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-Tender Candidates: Dubon, Garcia, Urias, De Los Santos, McCormick, Sanchez, Trammell

Free Agents

The Astros finished the season with an 87-75 record and missed out on the final AL Wild Card spot after losing the season series tiebreaker to the Tigers. As far as seasons that don't end in a postseason berth go, Houston's year certainly could've been worse. Yet there's plenty of work for GM Dana Brown and the rest of the front office to do this winter.

The elephant in the room is the impending departure of southpaw Framber Valdez. It's a safe bet that he will be pitching elsewhere come Opening Day, as Houston has rarely made a full-scale effort to retain their free agents over the years. Alex Bregman walked in free agency last winter, and Kyle Tucker was traded before his final year under team control so that he wouldn't do the same. Gerrit Cole previously left for New York after reaching free agency after the 2019 season. Justin Verlander and Carlos Correa both signed elsewhere on two separate occasions, though both did return to Houston in trades after their respective departures.

Jose Altuve is the only one of the club's stars they've managed to keep in town consistently, and comments from Brown haven't offered much reason to expect Valdez's free agency to reverse that trend. Brown said that he expected to have "some conversations" with Valdez's camp, but otherwise largely focused on the emergence of Hunter Brown as a legitimate ace and the club's other internal options when asked about the possibility of a reunion. Valdez is sure to be well outside the club's typical comfort zone even as he enters free agency marketing his age-32 season, and Brown has suggested that the club could look to the trade market in any efforts to bolster its rotation.

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers may consider trading a longtime rotation stalwart this winter but would be justified mostly standing pat coming off an MLB-best 97 wins.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, DH: $84.5MM through 2028 ($4MM deferred annually; includes buyout of '29 club option)
  • Jackson Chourio, OF: $74MM through 2031, with club options on 2032 and '33
  • Aaron Ashby, RP: $14MM through 2027, with club options on 2028 and '29

Option Decisions

2026 guaranteed contracts: $54.5MM
Total future commitments: $188.5MM through 2031

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidate: Bauers

Free Agents

With 97 wins, the Brewers were the best regular season team in baseball this year.  Roughly a third of the way through the season, the team's record sat at 25-28 after a May 24th loss to the Pirates.  They were 6.5 games back in the NL Central.  The Brewers were a third-place club with a 10% shot at making the playoffs.  That's when they emerged as the best team in baseball, as Milwaukee played .661 ball from that point forward, even including a .500 September.  By the end of July, the Brewers had an NL Central lead they would never relinquish, earning them a first-round playoff bye.

Powered by Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras on offense and an unconventional pitching attack led by Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers and Pat Murphy took down the Cubs and former manager Craig Counsell in a five-game NLDS.

2025 marked the Brewers' seventh playoff appearance in eight years, and their first series win since the impressive run began in 2018.  Unfortunately, the Brewers proved no match for the Dodgers in this year's NLCS, with L.A. powered by dominant starting pitching.

The Brewers have had a remarkable run of success on payrolls that have typically landed in the bottom third of MLB.  David Stearns' seven-year run heading up the front office ended in 2022, with Matt Arnold taking over as GM.  The club has maintained its excellence under Arnold.  The Brewers' front office is the envy of owners everywhere, prompting Mark Attanasio to promote Arnold to president of baseball operations last week.  Upon getting the promotion, Arnold made sure to thank "the guys that I work with every single day" - Matt Kleine, Karl Mueller, Will Hudgins, and Matt Klentak.  It would not be a surprise to see a few of those assistant GMs poached to run other teams' front offices in the coming years.

As MLB.com's Adam McCalvy and Jordan Bastian explained here, longtime friends Murphy and Counsell have "have alternated positions of power over the years."  Much as the Brewers transitioned seamlessly from Stearns to Arnold, Murphy picked up where Counsell left off in winning a pair of division titles in his two years as manager.  Murphy's contract is up after 2026, and you'd have to imagine an extension is coming.

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Brewers' year-end 40-man roster payroll ranked 23rd in baseball at $115MM.  The club has been as high as $135MM.  Regular season attendance was up 4.4% this year.  Given two additional postseason games compared to 2024, total attendance at American Family Field increased by 7.6%.  The Brewers' commitments total around $95MM at present, including an obvious $8MM club option on Freddy Peralta.  Arnold may make some trades and let his free agents go in fitting with the team's way of operating, but he shouldn't be under direct financial pressure to cut payroll.

That brings us to the linchpin of the Brewers' offseason: Peralta.  The 29-year-old righty was poached from the Mariners in the Adam Lind trade a decade ago, behind the advocacy of Kleine.  Peralta inked a team-friendly deal in February 2020.  He'll be eligible for free agency after the 2026 season.

Peralta ranks 17th among starting pitchers in WAR since 2021, and eighth in regular season starts since '23.  He posted a strong 28.2 K% this year alongside a career-best 2.70 ERA.  Perhaps he's more of a 3.50 type pitcher, but Peralta is immensely valuable as a durable #2 starter making $8MM.

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres won 90 games and made the playoffs for a second straight season. They came up short in a tightly-contested Wild Card Series against the Cubs. Manager Mike Shildt retired a few days later, sending them on the hunt for the sixth full-time skipper of A.J. Preller's tenure. That comes as they face the impending free agency of two of their top starters and their closer.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2026 guarantees (assuming only Laureano and Peralta return): $154.95MM
Total future commitments (assuming only Laureano and Peralta return): $1.022 billion through 2034

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adam, Sears

Free Agents

Every offseason in San Diego features its share of twists. This year's began within days of elimination. On October 9, The San Diego Union-Tribune reported that manager Mike Shildt and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller were expected back. Two days later, Shildt informed the team he was retiring. Subsequent reporting from The SDUT's Kevin Acee pointed to discord between Shildt and his coaching staff.

It was the third consecutive managerial stint that ended in some measure of controversy. Jayce Tingler had seemingly lost the clubhouse by the time he was fired in 2021. Preller and Bob Melvin clashed to such an extent that the Padres allowed Melvin out of his contract during the 2023-24 offseason to take the same job with the division-rival Giants. Preller is still expected back for what'll be his 12th full season leading baseball operations. This will be his fifth managerial search and he's going into the final year of his contract. Reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic pointed to some tension between Preller and CEO Erik Greupner that raises questions about whether the Padres will extend Preller or let him work on a lame duck contract.

The managerial search is well underway and could be concluded within the next few days. Acee wrote last night that they've moved to the second round of interviews while narrowing their search to a group of finalists. Albert Pujols is the only candidate known to have gotten a second interview. Bench coach Brian Esposito and pitching coach Ruben Niebla each interviewed at least once. Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty, a former Padres staffer who appeared to be the runner-up when the position went to Shildt two years back, has also been speculated as a candidate. Obviously, the managerial hiring will shape how much of Shildt's coaching staff returns.

It'd behoove the Padres to get their manager in place within the next week or so. They always have a lot to accomplish on the roster. This year is no exception, though most of their early option decisions are straightforward.

They'll exercise their $6.5MM option on Ramón Laureano, who was fantastic after being acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline. They'll buy out lefty Kyle Hart and backup catcher Elias Díaz. Closer Robert Suarez will opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, while Michael King has an easy call to decline his end of a $15MM mutual option in favor of a $3.75MM buyout.

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Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The 2025 season was another heartbreaker for the Mariners. Thankfully, they have a lot of good things in place for the future.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Julio Rodríguez, CF: $162MM through 2034 (deal contains complicated option structure beginning after 2028)
  • Cal Raleigh, C: $94MM through 2030 (deal includes 2031 vesting option)
  • Luis Castillo, RHP: $45.5MM through 2027 (deal includes 2028 conditional club option/vesting option)
  • J.P. Crawford, SS: $11MM through 2026
  • Víctor Robles, OF: $5MM through 2026 (includes $500K buyout on $9MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

  • IF Jorge Polanco has $6MM player option with $750K buyout
  • Club has $7MM option for RHP Andrés Muñoz, plus two more club options for 2027-28
  • Mitch Garver, C/DH: $12MM mutual option with $1MM buyout

2026 guarantees (assuming Polanco and Garver become free agents): $76.5MM
Total future commitments: $326.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Thornton, Saucedo, Raley, Santos, Kowar

Free Agents

In many ways, it was a fantastic season for the Mariners. They got a historic performance from catcher Cal Raleigh. They won the American League West for the first time since 2001 and made it to the ALCS for the first time since that same season.

But the dream ended there. It seemed they were on the cusp of their first World Series appearance when they went up 2-0 on the Blue Jays in the ALCS. The Jays tied the series up 2-2 but the Mariners managed to win Game 5, putting them one victory away. Seattle lost Game 6 but had a 3-1 lead in Game 7, until George Springer's home run put the Jays over the top.

So often in recent history, the Mariners have been a strong team but not quite strong enough. In 2021, they finished two games back of a playoff spot. They made it to the playoffs in 2022 and survived the Wild Card round, before getting swept out of the ALDS in agonizing fashion. The third game went 18 innings with the Mariners unable to score, losing 1-0 to the division-rival Astros. In both 2023 and 2024, they missed the playoffs by a single game. In a sense, 2025 was a step forward, but it was yet another case of getting so close that the final blow was all the more crushing.

Though the pain is fresh for many fans, there's a lot to feel good about in the future. The division is wide open. The Angels haven't been good in years. The A's are on the rise but still have lots of question marks. The Astros and Rangers have some veteran talent but are starting to feel a bit old and creaky, with both clubs facing budget crunches. The Seattle roster, meanwhile, is loaded with talent. A few guys are set to depart via free agency but the M's have payroll space and one of the best farm systems in baseball.

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Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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A barrage of pitching injuries and some underwhelming offensive performances resulted in Atlanta's first losing record and non-playoff season since 2017.  The Braves can't rely just on better health to improve next year, as the club will at least explore upgrades at multiple roster spots.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Austin Riley, 3B: $155MM through 2029 ($20MM club option for 2030)
  • Matt Olson, 1B: $88MM through 2029 ($20MM club option for 2030)
  • Spencer Strider, SP: $69MM through 2028 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2029)
  • Michael Harris II, OF: $54MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2031; Braves also have $20MM club option for 2032 with $5MM buyout)
  • Sean Murphy, C: $45MM through 2028 ($15MM club option for 2029)
  • Jurickson Profar, OF: $30MM through 2027
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $27MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2027; Braves hold $17MM club option for 2028)
  • Reynaldo Lopez, SP: $22MM through 2027
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $9.5MM through 2026
  • Joe Jimenez, RP: $9MM through 2026

Option Decisions

  • Chris Sale, SP: $18MM club option for 2026
  • Ha-Seong Kim, SS: $16MM player option for 2026
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $7MM club option for 2026 ($4MM buyout); Braves also hold $7MM club option for 2027
  • Pierce Johnson, RP: $7MM club option for 2026 ($250K buyout)
  • Tyler Kinley, RP: $5MM club option for 2026 ($750K buyout)

2026 financial commitments (if all options are exercised): $204.5MM
Total long-term financial commitments (if all options are exercised) = $561.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

At the time of this post's publication, the Braves still haven't settled on a new manager.  The team's hope was that Brian Snitker would return for an 11th season as manager, but Snitker will instead move into an advisory role for his 50th season in the organization.  Snitker's decade in the manager's chair included six NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship, but this outstanding run ended on the down note of a 76-86 record in 2025.

It is hard to imagine any manager could've shepherded this year's Braves team to glory given how nearly the entire rotation was lost to the injured list.  Even with their season slipping away due to an 8-17 record in July, the Braves were one of the more active buyers (to some extent) leading up to the trade deadline just because the team was in such need of short-term rotation help.

Bryce Elder (and his 5.30 ERA) led all Atlanta pitchers with 156 1/3 innings, with Chris Sale finishing in second with only 125 2/3 frames.  Sale missed over two months due to a ribcage fracture, but naturally his club option is still a lock to be exercised.  Spencer Strider's recovery from internal brace surgery and a hamstring strain limited him to 125 1/3 innings, and he understandably didn't look nearly as dominant as he did in his All-Star 2023 season.  Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder ended up sidelining him for the rest of the season.  Spencer Schwellenbach (fractured elbow) and AJ Smith-Shawver (Tommy John surgery) were each pitching well before their seasons were ended in June.  Grant Holmes' season was ended by a partially torn UCL in late July, and his status remains a question mark since Holmes is trying to rehab the injury without surgery.

Assuming no more offseason health woes, Sale, Strider, and Schwellenbach have places assured in Atlanta's rotation.  Former top prospect Hurston Waldrep pitched well in his first extended taste of MLB action and put himself in line for a starting job in 2026.  Holmes and Lopez are both tentatively penciled into the rotation for now, with the caveats of Holmes' health and the possibility that Lopez could be transitioned back into a bullpen role.  Back in September, Anthopoulos stressed that the club still views Lopez as a starter, "but what if we have a bunch of starter trades that present themselves and so on?  It would be a great problem to have."

Needless to say, the Braves are planning to bring at least one new addition into the starting mix.  The fact that Anthopoulos mentioned trading for a starter first and foremost might hint at his preferred plan, which makes sense given how Anthopoulos has traditionally shied away from big-ticket free agent signings during his front office career.  Anthopoulos has swung several creative trades over the years, and as we'll explore later, some players on the current big league roster could be trade chips just as easily as members of the Atlanta farm system.

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