The Orioles came into 2025 as contenders but their season fell apart quickly. They have the pieces to bounce back in 2026 but what remains to be seen is how aggressive they will be in making offseason upgrades.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Tyler O'Neill, OF: $33MM through 2027
- Samuel Basallo, C/1B: $67MM through 2033, including buyout of 2034 club option
Option Decisions
- OF Tyler O'Neill can opt out of remaining two years and $33MM on his deal
- Club has $5.5MM option on IF/OF Jorge Mateo
- Club has $3MM option on LHP Dietrich Enns
2026 guarantees (assuming the Enns option is picked up): $20.5MM
Total future commitments: $103MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
- Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
- Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
- Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
- Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
- José Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
- Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
- Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
- Félix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
- Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
- Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
- Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
- Albert Suárez (3.019): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Mountcastle, Akin, Carlson, Castillo, Cano, Jackson
Free Agents
As seen up top, the O's have almost no long-term commitments. They have a large arbitration class but none of the projections are particularly onerous. Even with those arb players, RosterResource projects the club for a paltry $69MM payroll next year, almost $100MM below what they spent in 2025. A few non-tenders should give them even more breathing room.
All that potential payroll capacity doesn't guarantee of aggressive moves, however. They also had lots of dry powder last winter and still kept things fairly modest. The only multi-year pact was a three-year deal for Tyler O'Neill with an opt-out after the first season. Otherwise, it was one-year deals for veteran players like Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sánchez and Ramón Laureano.
The starting pitching investments were particularly underwhelming. The O's clearly needed more in the rotation. Since it was the first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein, some fans believed a new level of spending was possible. In November, then-general manager Mike Elias set the expectations fairly high. "You’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open," he said. "That involves high-end free agent deals over many years. We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”
But the O's ended up with a 41-year-old Morton and a 35-year-old Sugano. The rotation ended up being a source of frustration for the O's all year. A spring injury to Grayson Rodriguez quickly cut into the depth and led the O's to a mid-March signing of Kyle Gibson. In April, Zach Eflin hit the injured list and Morton struggled enough to get bumped to the bullpen. Gibson came up to try to patch the holes but he was torched in four starts and released in May. Plenty of other guys struggled to put good numbers together as well.
The season quickly slipped away. They were 12-18 at the end of April and then went 9-18 in May. They were better the rest of the way but it was too late to get the season back on track. They went into the deadline as sellers and were aggressive in trading away veterans for prospects.
Going into 2026, the rotation again needs some work, though there have been some positive developments. Trevor Rogers took a while to get on track in 2025, starting the season on the IL with a knee injury, but had an amazing finish. He posted a 1.81 earned run average over 18 starts. It's not realistic to expect him to stay that good over a longer sample but the numbers under the hood are promising. Kyle Bradish got back on the mound after his 2024 Tommy John surgery. He only made six starts in the majors but also made six more as part of his rehab.
Rogers and Bradish make for a strong one-two punch atop the rotation. Rodriguez would be another front-of-rotation option but he missed the entire season due to elbow and shoulder issues. He's expected to be ready for spring training but the O's will probably have to be mindful of his workload for a while. Guys like Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Tyler Wells can fill in the back but adding another front-end guy makes sense, something Elias has admitted. Will the poor 2025 season prompt a bolder strike this offseason?
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A bold trade is desperately needed to free up some position player bottlenecks, which is also just weird to state given how poor their offense was this year. Have to dangle Mayo because you could just retain Mountcastle and platoon him with Basallo some. Or sign Naylor or Alonso. Hader makes a lot of sense to replace Laureano and move Cowser to a corner. Can’t rely on Oneil but can also platoon some if so. Pretty sure Carlson has an option left.. probably should tender him a contract and stick at AAA for insurance. Only other outfielder maybe MLB ready is Bradfield and shouldn’t rush that. Sign Devin Williams and at least one other bullpen arm like Seranthony. Sign one FA starter, trade for another. Put Povich in the pen. No lefties back there which tells me Akin definitely gets tendered a contract. Trade for another or you have to give Luis Deleon a shot. Enns might have to have that option picked up. Lots of work to do Elias. Whose your impact bat? Nothing fits great. Creative option is to sign Bregman instead of the needed utility infielder and rotate Westburg or Holliday in the OF some.
Never thought I would hear bregman and orioles in the same sentence
Why not? Elias and Bregman were in HOU together and he won’t be as expensive as a Tucker or others. Os have $100m to spend if they match 2025s payroll
Hader didn’t hit Lefties well in 2025, but adding a CF makes sense until bradford is ready.
mayo is cheap and has 30 hr upside. unless your getting a #1/2 starter for him not worth trading.
starter you have 5 now assuming GRod and Wells. only 1 high end starter seems a good fit. 2 would push wells to the pen which could be good as a closer perhaps.
i like bregman idea but they need RH outfielders more unless mounty is traded and you cycle in westburg into DH/2b so he gets 500+ ab. Westburg if he can get 500 ab could be what the team needs too. last year he had much better competitive ab and 25-30hr power. Not sold on Holliday yet 100% of time.
They should try to match up with pittsburg on keller as it shouldn’t be much of a prospect ask due to the contract money involved. he’d be a good 2/3.. Valdez would be a good 1st option as long as not clubhouse issue. lefties should do better at camden yards.
Hader for CF to platoon some with cowser. (unless they think bradfield is an viable option as he’s doing well in fall league)
Another under the radar option for RH outfield bat or someone like M Adjuar if the defense works in lf…
pullpen – anyone not named luke weaver with closing experience. leave a spot or 2 with options for rotating arms with AAA. Wells as setup or closer if you sign/trade for 2 starters Another lefty or 2. You can’t count on mountain coming back at all even next year with that type of injury so a long term contract at the backend would be appropriate. kittridge type with a team option good idea too.
They have to upgrade though. Where is the impact veteran bat? It needs to be a Hader type and impact bat just to be as good as they were when they had ROH and Laureano fixed in the lineup. Mayo has upside sure, but hasnt proven anything and 1B is relatively easy to replace. Also not ideal to have a maturing player on the weak side of the platoon assuming Basallo gets a lot of time at 1B. That’s why he’s the obvious trade candidate. Package him for a proven starter from a team looking to salary dump. They’re not WS contenders if relying on ALL of these young guys to not only take a step forward, but break out for real. They really need to push chips in this time. Keller is not much better than Kremer.. not sure how much that moves the needle but wouldnt complain if it happened. Grayson, Wells, and Povich need to start year in the pen if every SP is healthy. Just an example rotation: Bradish, Rogers, Cease, P.Lopez, Kremer (healthy innings eater). Impact bat Naylor or Bregman for me. Alonso poor defense, but Naylor could play OF in a pinch and apparently steal you a base. Doesn’t strike out a lot. Bregman also low strikeouts and great D. They’re not getting Tucker and probably not Bellinger, so would have to be trade if it comes via an outfielder.
Bregman is not a “creative option” it would be a waste of money. Westburg is the 3B. Henderson SS and Holiday at 2B. Alonso would be an excellent addition, splitting time at first with Basallo and DH.
Go get Imai once he’s posted. Sign another starter, can be a number 2, doesn’t have to be an average per se.
Wells should be in the pen and so should Grayson if he’s healthy enough to pitch. He’s likely going to be in an innings limit so utilizing him in the pen for this season would help him stay healthy and contribute and can revisit starting role in 27
I only disagree because of how poorly Holliday rates defensively at 2B and hasn’t broken out at the plate either. I get he’s still young, but Westburg is a better 2B today and can still play plenty of 3B too. Or Bregman can play some 2B. They need a RH impact veteran bat that doesn’t strikeout a lot and Bregman fits that profile. I don’t buy the waste of money argument when they theoretically have $100m to spend this off-season. Alonso would be helpful bat wise but the contract will probably age poorly where I think Bregman is a safer bet kind of like an Arenado type. Defense has value.
By waste of money i meant spending money on a position that wasn’t a hole or need, not that they don’t have the resources – I completely agree with you there, they can easily add 80+ million to their payroll this offseason. I believe they only have a little over 80 million committed right now, so plenty of room to add!
Last offseason they should’ve traded Mayo and Kjerstad for Crochet. I was saying that last year too so it’s not a hindsight is 50/50 thing. Extend Crochet and bam. Your rotation is set for the window while you have all of the boras client bats under control. Signing snell shouldn’t have been not an option, but they didn’t even try, instead they spent a good chunk of that on Sugano and Morton. Imagine snell, crochet, bradish as your top 3. That’s a ws caliber rotation. You’d be a few bullpen arms and a guy like teoscar away from being fully set. Just no vision for the front office. I don’t get it
Mayo and Kjerstad would not have gotten it done because they really wanted a catcher to headline. Basallo was off limits and Boston had the better headline and package with Teel. But I don’t disagree with you generally speaking.
Im pretty sure it was reported that they were very in on Snell and most likely #2 choice behind LA. Snell is a west coast guy and LA is more desirable for many reasons. To say they didn’t try is just not right. Same goes for Burnes and AZ, Fried in NY, Eovaldi and TX. The player has to want to be in Baltimore, too. I advocated for Teoscar but same thing, and pretty sure BOS was his #2 choice
Unfortunately Heston and Coby value isn’t what it used to be. Mayos value may be rebounded a bit with the better finish to the season but still not where it used to be.
I understand the hesitation for Crochet because of injury history and having enough of our own injuries on the roster to consider. Beyond that, they likely asked for Basallo and that is just a non starter.
They need to trade for bullpen arms and then go out and get Imai when he’s posted, sign Alonso and sign another starter – go ahead and try to play at the top of the market but don’t make a deal just to make a deal. Good fits would be Framber, Suarez, King, Cease. I like Woodruff a lot for some reason, I think he would fit well with this team. I also wouldn’t object to bringing Sugano back if it helped with going after Imai.
I’m not sure how much Devin Williams would cost but he’s a good bounce back guy who would fill a need. I’d pitch Wells out of the pen in high leverage role. I’ll probably get crap for this but I would put Grayson in the pen for the season too. He will probably have an innings limit so let him contribute and stay healthy and then revisit a starting role next season.
We have something like 80 million committed so far for ‘26. Even with arb increases, there is enough room there to add 2-3 bigger acquisitions (Alonso, Imai, Front of the rotation arm and possibly Williams)
C/DH – Adley and Basallo
1B/DH – Alonso and Basallo
2B – Holiday
SS – Henderson
3B – Westburg
LF – O’Neill
CF – Cowser
RF – Beavers
With that lineup we e could alternate left, right, left, right all the way down the lineup. I would use Beavers as my leadoff hitter. Jeremiah Jackson should definitely be on the team as a super utility guy to play the OF and left side of the IF. Maybe you carry a third catcher because you would be using Basallo at first as well.
The rotation could look something like this (not in any particular order) if they get two quality starters it would likely push Kremer to the pen or trade:
Bradish
Rogers
Acquisition – Framber, Cease, Suarez, King, Woodruff, etc
Imai
Kremer
Bullpen:
Povich
Enns
Wells
Grayson
Williams
Cano
Stroud
Akin
Obviously some guys might be non tendered – Mountcastle, Akin etc
This is just a general outline and need another bench player and the bullpen needs to be worked out.
I don’t see anything here that is outside of the realm of possibility financially for this team.
Oh yeah, and hire a manager!
These are the pieces the Os add for 26 if they do nothing:
First guys that missed most of 24
Bradish
Wells
Rodriquez
Suarez
ONeil
Guys that missed significant parts of 25 or played hurt
Wedtburg
Cowser
Rutscman
If just those guys are healthy you add 10 to 15 wins. Now build from there.
Then the wild cards for 26
Basallo
Beavers
Mayo
Remember in 2024 the Jays had missed their window and posters said they should clean house and start over.
People need to relax.
They could be the next jays but they are going to need a revamp in their hitting philosophy
Jays got by because springer went from bad player to 2019 Astros mode and they had a lot of hitting and pitching guys who weren’t horrible
Orioles would need adley to have his best year and have their prospects play at a serviceable level on top of pitching revamp
I simply can’t trust this front office.
one unlucky year with injuries all over the place shouldn’t erase the good will the prior years built.
Newly promoted Elias is secure but will be under pressure. Vs. previous payroll, he has more spending money than anybody not named Cohen. The past years failure and the fat wallet mean that he WILL spend a lot on pitching, he has too. Probably overcompensates – 50mm$ per for a high end a mid and a meh SP. And he then moves SPs 6-8 to relief where he’s still short a couple of experienced RPs.
He won’t feel pressure on bats and loves his guys so likely to bid but not win on quality OFers. Then just go for a lefty killer LF, Andujar or Grichuk type, and a defensive CF as 4th & 5th.
Cano was an all-star rookie just two years ago. Baseball can be a cruel game sometimes.
Can’t see them non-tendering Akin. He ended the season as the closer. That was, of course, by default but none of the departed players whose role he filled will be back. That’s not to say he should or will be the closer. But a high leverage, 1 WAR lefty who strikes out almost one/inning is more valuable than the $3 million he’s projected to get in arbitration. Last off-season Aaron Bummer, a lefty coming of a less than 1 WAR season who was the same age as Akin is now and has less career saves than Akin had last season got a two-year, $13 million contract. Akin probably doesn’t get that deal, but he gets more than one year, $3 million if the Os non-tender.
The sentence should say “doesn’t have to be an ACE per se” but it’s not letting me edit it
Akin as a nontender candidate is crazy work. The bullpen has no established relievers in it plus he’s a lefty.
100% guarantee he gets tendered. He definitely had good fortune last year but the prior 2 years he had great peripherals
trade Rutchsman Mountcastle and prospect to Phillies for Alec brocman and painter switch Westburgh to right field sign one of the top pitchers and a relief pitcher or 2
Tender decisions
– Akin – will tender, he is miscast as a closer but effective middle reliever until overused.
– Enns – will tender, they need LHP BP help
– I’d consider Castillo, He can be helpful, still cheap
– Definitely non-tender Mountcastle, Cano,
– Consider Jackson. So many times they get limited by DH’ing one catcher and starting the other.
Other
– Them picking up Mateo’s option while continuing to cry poverty means they are not intent on competing in 2026 no matter what else they do. Absolutely useless.
Don’t count on Wells and Rodriguez as any more than bullpen pieces. That means obtain two quality starters, a #1 and a top half or two guys who are #1/#2. Wells can be a swingman. Anything they give consider as a bonus.
– Complete change in approach on offensive approach, deployment, etc. By far the biggest difference this team can make is correcting the downward spiral of Rutschman, Henderson, and Cowser, righting the course on Holliday and Westburg. The lack of success with RISP and against LHP even after they improved is appalling.
I am encouraged because this team played .500 ball with a fried bullpen and half a rotation for 2/3 of the season and its hitters mainly underachieving. It came after they already took themselves out of it with a 16-34 start.
I am discouraged because I’ve been a fan of the team for 45 years and I know the modus operandi. We’re heading into “the Orioles are interested in” and “the Orioles are in the mix for” season for guys they don’t get, then its “veteran innings eater” or “diamond in the rough” or “overlooked quality” season. I would love for them to prove me wrong this winter.
Cano was tough to watch but there’s no chance he’s non tendered. He’d bring back a lotto ticket from someone else. He was a highly effective reliever for 2 years. There’s hope for him as a middle reliever.
I really hope we don’t pick up Castillo & Enns or if so we need to trade Akin. That’s 3 lefties and I’m really hoping we actually have one that’s an impact arm.