Braves Notes: Dubon, Seager, Holmes

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos met with reporters on Wednesday after the team acquired Mauricio Dubón from the Astros for Nick Allen. Anthopoulos confirmed the Braves view him as a potential starting shortstop while leaving the door open to pushing him back into a utility role if they land an upgrade.

“Our underlying data on him at shortstop is good and strong,” Anthopoulos said (link via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). “But I think he’s good at second, good at third, and good at the corners. He can play center field. We like the contact and the speed, as well.” Anthopoulos said Dubón’s job “will be determined by what else we do this winter and even in Spring Training.”

There’s no indication the Braves will be a factor for Bo Bichette. The only other clear free agent upgrade is Ha-Seong Kim, who declined his $16MM player option. Anthopoulos made clear at the beginning of the offseason that the Braves wanted Kim back, but it remains to be seen if they’ll meet his asking price on what will presumably be a multi-year deal.

There aren’t any teams that are known to be shopping an everyday shortstop. Washington could move CJ Abrams, but the asking price would be huge and they may be reluctant to trade him within the division. The rebuilding White Sox and Rockies have young shortstops they hope are foundational pieces (Colson Montgomery and Ezequiel Tovar, respectively).

There’s been some speculation about the Rangers entertaining offers on a highly-paid superstar as they face payroll constraints. It’d still be a huge surprise if Texas trades Corey Seager, who arguably remains the team’s best hitter and is signed for $31MM per season for another six years. It’s not clear if the Braves would have any interest in assuming a significant portion of the remaining $186MM on that deal. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Atlanta is one of the clubs on Seager’s eight-team no-trade list. Even if the teams could line up a stunning blockbuster, they’d need to get the player to sign off.

The 31-year-old Dubón has started 81 MLB games at shortstop. He played a career-high 206 1/3 innings there this past season. Dubón has 721 career frames at the position. Defensive Runs Saved has him right around average, while Statcast grades him an excellent nine runs above par. Dubón, a two-time Gold Glove winner in a utility capacity, is established as a plus defender at second base and throughout the outfield. He’s an above-average runner with good hands and a plus arm. Dubón is unlikely to be as good a defensive shortstop as Allen was, but he’s not a complete zero at the bottom of the lineup, so he’s a better overall player.

The Braves need to weigh the value of the upgrade from Dubón to Kim against the cost it’d take to bring the latter back — which could pull resources from their need for a mid-rotation starter. There’s too much injury downside to rely on a rotation of Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López and Hurston Waldrep.

The Braves don’t have much in the way of upper level depth behind that quintet. That makes Grant Holmes’ health a big x-factor, even assuming they add at least one starter. Holmes turned in a 3.99 ERA while striking out a quarter of batters faced in 22 appearances this year. His season ended in July when he was diagnosed with a partial tear of the UCL in his elbow.

Ligament damage always raises a risk of surgery. Holmes is trying to rehab without going under the knife. Anthopoulos said the Braves are “really encouraged” by how things have progressed in the past four months (relayed by David O’Brien of The Athletic). They still won’t know whether Holmes can avoid surgery until he builds up the intensity during Spring Training, yet that’s a positive development at this stage.