Looking For A Match In A CJ Abrams Trade

The Nationals are in a new era. Their stalled rebuild led ownership to fire president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez. Paul Toboni is now leading a front office for the first time, while the club brought in a rookie manager in 33-year-old Blake Butera. It's easy to imagine Toboni making a couple significant trades to add a needed influx of talent to the farm system.

"We're in the business right now of just bringing in as much value as we can to the organization," the new baseball operations president said from the GM Meetings (link via Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post). "However that may look, we’ll stay disciplined to that." The most obvious place would be to entertain conversations on left-hander MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams. Gore is down to two years of arbitration control and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $4.7MM salary. Abrams' $5.6MM projection is a little higher, but he has three years of remaining control.

This feels like the opportune time to move Gore. Any team in a short-term contention window could be interested. He's at least a mid-rotation arm with the upside of a #2 starter. The Nationals could hear from two-thirds of the league about his availability.

Whether to trade Abrams is a tougher call. The Nats presumably expect to compete for a playoff spot within three years. There's less injury risk with a position player than there is with a pitcher. The Nationals could view the 25-year-old shortstop as the kind of core piece whom they're more or less unwilling to trade. At the same time, Abrams has been maddeningly inconsistent over the past couple seasons. He's a gifted athlete who is nevertheless prone to defensive miscues. This may just depend on how a Toboni-led front office that didn't acquire Abrams views the player.

Abrams is coming off a .257/.315/.433 line with 19 home runs through 635 plate appearances. He has hit between 18-20 longballs in each of the past three seasons. Abrams has stolen 31 bases in consecutive seasons and ranks sixth in MLB with 109 steals since the start of 2023. He won't walk much, but he puts the ball in play with middle-of-the-road exit velocities. At his best, he looks the part of a top-of-the-order spark plug. He's coming off a second straight season in which he was only at that level for a few months. Abrams was a star-level performer in the first half of each of the past two years, but he slumped after the All-Star Break both times.

He's not much easier to pin down defensively. Abrams certainly has the frame and athleticism of a shortstop. He has been far too mistake-prone, however, with only Elly De La Cruz committing more errors over the past few seasons. Most of them have been related to poor accuracy. Abrams was charged with 18 throwing errors this year, three more than anyone else. He has committed 38 throwing errors over the past three seasons. As one might expect given all the easy misses, Statcast has graded Abrams as by far the sport's worst defensive shortstop in that time.

Other teams could have differing views on Abrams' defensive projection. There are presumably some who feel he's non-viable at shortstop and would only consider him at second base or as a potential center field conversion. Others could feel the throwing issues can be cleaned up with mechanical tweaks. They could also be motivated out of some amount of desperation considering the lack of alternatives. Bo Bichette could command upwards of $200MM and faces his own defensive questions. Only one team can sign Ha-Seong Kim, and he doesn't have anywhere near the same offensive ceiling that Abrams has flashed. There aren't many clear options on the trade front.

If the Nationals were to trade Abrams, which clubs should make the biggest push? Let's split them into a few groups. Teams are listed alphabetically within each tier.

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