This week's mailbag gets into the Grayson Rodriguez-Taylor Ward trade, the four accepted qualifying offers, the trade value of Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and much more.
Nick asks:
Hi, what is Mike Elias thinking selling low on Grayson? Ward is a good, not great, hitter, and Rodriguez's ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for a Singer-Ward swap and I feel like 4 years of Rodriguez, even with his injuries, would have way more value than one year of Singer.
Zach asks:
For real, what's with trading Grayson Rodriguez?!?
In making this trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and GM Mike Elias made a big bet against Rodriguez.
When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez 11th overall out of high school in 2018, the club was a few months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as the head of baseball operations. So Elias wasn't involved with that pick, but he is intimately familiar with Rodriguez's career and health history.
Once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Rodriguez's injuries began with a 2022 Grade 2 lat strain that cost him three months and pushed back his expected Major League debut. He was healthy in 2023, had some success in the Majors, and totaled 165 innings - the only time in his career he's topped 117 frames.
Rodriguez missed 19 days with shoulder inflammation in May 2024, and then saw his season end that year on July 31st due to what was initially called a mild lat strain. No one could've guessed that quality start against the Blue Jays would close the book on Rodriguez's Orioles career before his 25th birthday.
The big righty supposedly entered 2025 without restrictions, and claimed he wasn't hurt when his velocity was down in spring training. But in March he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, compounded in April by another "mild lat strain." It was initially thought Rodriguez would return in the second half, but he experienced elbow discomfort while rehabbing and was shut down. After multiple opinions were gathered, Rodriguez's 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11th.
As Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez's health this way at the end of September: "There’s nothing medically to suggest that he won’t be ready, and he’s very determined and not happy about what happened last year." Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, "I am bullish on the situation." The procedure involved removing bone chips from Rodriguez's elbow.
Rodriguez spoke to reporters yesterday. Here's an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:
"Rodriguez said he is “absolutely” confident that he can pitch a full season this year. He said the bone spurs had been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes that they led to the lat injuries. “Just being able to get those out of there, my arm feels great right now throwing,” Rodriguez said. “There’s really no question for me to be ready for spring training.”"
I'm searching for an explanation why the pitching-needy Orioles would trade a pre-arbitration mid-rotation type starter with 238 2/3 pretty good big league innings to his name and four years of team control remaining for one year of what looks like, at best, a 2.5 WAR outfielder.
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Tigers did not entice Woodruff?
Wow.
Scat.
I can see why Elias could want to move on from Grayson, what I dont understand is why he felt he needed to take this particular offer so soon into the off-season.
You’d think another team would be willing to give up a more valuable OF than Ward, or if they love Ward they could’ve gotten more because of other teams offers.
Angels have incriminating photos of Elias
I wasnt trying to say he didnt, I assume he did. I meant you’d think another team would have offered more.
paos – Tyler O’Neill no longer needed the photos, so he gave them to the Angels.
How do we know he didn’t offer him to other teams?
bmontgomery
How do we know he didn’t offer him to other teams?
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Because fans always assume that GMs, with Ivy League educations, and 40 years of experience, and massive FO assistance, always forget to see if anyone else is interested in their player.
Among many other assumptions that fans have, that have a -0- chance of being true.
Mike Elias is 42, so unless he became a GM at age 2, which would be considered young even by current MLB standards, he doesn’t have 40 years experience. He didn’t even graduate college until 2006.
I never said he didnt offer him to other teams. Appreciate the condescension though.
“You’d think another team would be willing to give up a more valuable OF than Ward”
I’m not sure how to interpret this otherwise? If another team was willing to give up more than Ward, I am going to presume that Elias would’ve taken it.
Take it simply as I said it, you’d THINK another team would. Another team clearly didnt, hence my lack of understanding why Elias felt compelled to take this deal now.
Im not implying Elias is a moron because he did this deal, im curious where the disconnect is between the publics value of Grayson and/or Ward’s value and their apparent value based on this deal
This may have been the best deal they could have gotten for him. He hasn’t pitched in almost two years. Contending teams don’t have the roster space to dedicate to someone with so many question marks – they need players who haven’t missed so much time, especially teams who already have other pitchers that are returning from injury and have shown they can get back without so many setbacks.
This has to mean that the Orioles are bringing additional pitching onboard – via trade or free agency.
The best ability is availability. You can’t get by on promise forever.
Time will tell if Grayson can get back consistently but my guess is that the Orioles know he will be challenged to get back to where he was in 2024, or believe flat out that he won’t. We will see.
ba$eba||F@n21
This may have been the best deal they could have gotten for him.
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I feel fairly comfortable making that assumption for every trade. If I were to sell my 1915 Babe Ruth collection for $x, the assumption should be that I didn’t receive an offer for $x + 10%.
It’s honestly subjective to the party making the deals and their unique situation with roster construction and team need.
Other teams could have offered a deal that could have had more value but not the type of value the front office was seeking. For example, they are in win now mode, needed RH power bat to balance the lineup. That’s what they got because that’s the value they were seeking.
However, they could have had other deals offered that may have had more future value (multiple younger prospects who would not immediately impact the team) but passed on them. Giving up the remaining years of control on Grayson is a good indicator of their mindset and objectives.
I’m hoping the M’s just keep Randy for 2026 and give him a QO after the year. Would not be mad at an extension, but getting that draft pick would be nice and I think we could find a similar OF once he leaves.
Hopefully Lazaro Montes will be ready by then!
The Jays are not trading Addison Barger for any pitcher from Pittsburgh, No one wants Berrios with that contract so put him in the rotation and see what he can do if he’s healthy, He’s not a bullpen pitcher he’s a starter. As for Kyle Tucker I would rather have Bichette, Bellinger & another starter.
Can’t directly compare Grisham to deals Santander and O’Neill signed last season. Santander and O’Neill did not get QOs so no draft choiuce compensation. Grisham is betting on himself. If he has a year close to last season, he’ll be a 29 yo free agent after next season with no QO. And while I think there’s risk, one can’t hate the idea of his lefty bat, in Yankee Stadium, with Judge batting behind him (although he hit much better on the road than at home last season).
Santander did have a QO
How could the O’s have offered Grisham 2/40 after accepted the QO?
Those were some paths they could have taken in the past instead of the one they did.
guy that is always hurt with arm issues vs. a decent corner outfielder/ first rounder who actually plays.
I guess you don’t think re-signing Mullins is an answer to Os’ CF hole. While I agree, I’d rather have Mullins (who at most is a two year, $14 million contract, and probably less), than Ward who is almost that for one season and can’t play CF. And you wouldn’t have to give up Rodriguez to get him. Surely the Angels weren’t the only team who would have interest in Grayson.
Ward and Mullins aren’t that close
36 HRs and 103 RBIs vs 17 HRs and 59 RBIs. Cowser to CF (for now). Mullins will catch on somewhere but he is not the player he was 3 years ago.
If Ward hits .250 and 25-30 HR (reasonable projection based on career stats and trajectory) I would pay him 2x as much as re-treading Mullins, no hesitation.
Mullins’ defense has decreased – range is down and he never had an arm. He can still run (new rules help). The past 2-3 seasons, he goes through long stretches without hitting and short productive bursts. He hit the cover off the ball in April and then for about 3 weeks in July (.321 with .547 slugging). The rest of the time he got outs – too many K’s included.
The Orioles have to add more value than Mullins brings to contend. He literally added zero value (0.0 WAR for the Orioles in 2025). I say this given Mullins was probably my favorite Oriole in 2021-22.
Ward’s career avg is .247 hes been maming less and less contact each year, this has led to him hitting for more power.
Hes twice hit 25 HRs or more in 8 seasons. I could definitely see him hitting 25 HRs but I dont see him hitting .250. Hes gotten more power and Ks have surged, pretty self explanatory to most baseball fans what’s going on there.
Taylor ward ran into walls , got hit in the face. Gutsy player. Trout in left, I wonder. Please sign Jansen
You get what you can. Ask the White Sox about Britt Burns.
Tim
Can you post the Free Agent Contest leaderboard, please?
I have 5 out of 6 correct at the moment and, based on my usual 7 or 8 total by contest end in the past, don’t expect to stay that close to the lead for long.
The people I currently hold bragging rights over need to see the evidence once …before that genius fades into the background!
LOL! I do the same thing. I get close to 100% of what I consider the low-hanging fruit. And three weeks later, I haven’t hit anything. Then wind up with my usual 7-8.
I should have submitted one. I was going to put anyone from NPL to the Dodgers and everyone else to the Yankees, and it would have been interesting to see how far up the leaderboard that got.
I’m fairly confident we’ll see some regression from Ward this year. Pitching in the AL East is a different animal. He’s also leaving a friendly environment for right-handed hitters in Anaheim to play half his games at a stadium that has historically been much tougher.