MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning — and happy offseason! Apologies for the lack of chat last week. We had a pretty big push to get the Top 50 out, finish the Offseason Outlook series, etc. We’ll get back into a rhythm with regular chats on Tuesdays again. We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but feel free to ask a question ahead of time if you prefer.
• Good afternoon! Let’s get underway
• We published our collaborative Top 50 Free Agents and Contract Predictions last week:
  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-…I may differ slightly from contract to contract, but in general, most of the numbers on there are pretty closely in line with my expectations (or at the very least seem pretty plausible to me)
• Quick note since many of the early questions are asking for contract predictions on prominent free agents

Hunt for Reds October

• Given the payroll is the same, how can the Reds claim they will compete in 2026?  Isn’t it more of the same dumpster diving and wishing something good happens?

Steve Adams

• They nabbed a Wild Card spot in 2025 and did so in a season where they went through notable stretches without Hunter Greene, Tyler Stephenson, Noelvi Marte and others — plus they got nothing out of Matt McLain.They have a handful of notable free agents in Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagan, Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar, but I think most of that group is composed of regression candidates anyhow
• All of which is to say, I don’t think they need to send payroll soaring to compete. Obviously it’d be nice if the Castellinis gave Krall & Co. an extra $20MM or so on top of last year’s budget, but they’ve got some wiggle room right now as it is, especially if they trade Brady Singer

Jays Fan

• Will the Blue Jays pursue Kyle Tucker? I’d like to see them re-sign Bichette AND bring in Tucker.

Steve Adams

• They’ll pursue him. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for a Tucker+Bichette combo, but it’s at least slightly plausible, which is more than can be said for most clubs

Jose G

• What reliever are the Dodgers going got sign?

Steve Adams

• This is a boring answer, but the Dodgers don’t even know the answer to that question yet.I expect they’ll be in on Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams and other prominent bullpen arms though.

Stevey Steve

• Steve why did Baldwin beat out Cade Horton for NL ROY? To me that is a joke. He was unbelievable in the 2nd half. His ERA over his last 14 starts was 1- something. Come on, what are we doing here?

Steve Adams

• Horton would’ve been perfectly deserving, but focusing only on his final 12 starts also ignores a good-not-great 10 starts to begin his career.Drake Baldwin was in the majors all year (Horton wasn’t) and was 25% better than average at the plate as a catcher — a position where the standard player is about 10% worse than average.

  I wouldn’t begrudge anyone preferring Horton over Baldwin, but there wasn’t a cavernous gulf between them at all.

  I’d also have voted for Baldwin, in full transparency. Sorry! (If Horton had been up on Opening Day and pitched like that in the majors all season, it’d be another story)

Mitch

• Dodgers could pretty easily trade for  a Kwan loke player rather sign Tucker. I think that hype is there just because they are the Dodgers. They need to clean up 40 man space and have a ton of depth at the same positions in the minors

Steve Adams

• I’m sure they’ll look into both. Kwan would cost quite a bit in a trade, and I’d take Tucker over him in a heartbeat. But sure, if the Dodgers feel Tucker’s asking price is prohibitive, Steven Kwan is a nice alternative.

AJ

• over/under 2.5 years for OHearn?

Steve Adams

• We predicted two but were at three years for a long while. I don’t think three is out of the question, but my very fake and not at all off-the-cuff odds would be like 70% two years and 30% three years.

Action M’s

• Josh Naylor aside . I’m of the opinion the Mariners are in need of bullpen arms. Options, they could turn to in that area?

Steve Adams

• The Mariners haven’t spent much on bullpen arms under Jerry Dipoto — in part because they’re so good at finding quality contributors on the scrap heap. (Hey there, Gabe Speier)I don’t expect them to spend heavily on the ’pen. Guess they could re-sign Caleb Ferguson, but they already have Munoz, Brash, Speier, Bazardo, Vargas … it’s a strong group as is, and I’m curious to see what Hancock would do over a full year in the ’pen.

Cards

• Ive always thought teams should be more open to trading within their divisions. For example if the Cubs wanted Donovan, who cares the cards aren’t going to be good anytime soon and if you can get good prospects back it’s a win for both teams.

Steve Adams

• I don’t have a ton of insight other than to say I generally agree with this. Lots of clubs caught up in optics. I get that you don’t want to strengthen a division rival for years to come, but I still feel it’s a bit of a blind spot for a lot of clubs.

Donovan

• Do you think Brendan Donovan could hold down SS for the Braves? He and Gray would make amazing pickups and fill 2 huge needs for them.

Steve Adams

• I’ve wondered whether the Braves might consider this. I kind of like it as an out-of-the-box option for one year, given the lack of alternative options. It’s a leap of faith in a guy who hasn’t played there much, but there’s just not a ton out there and I think Donovan is probably athletic enough to make it work short-term if you give him an offseason and spring training to prepare. Worst case, he’s well below average and you move him into a utility role and plug Nick Allen’s glove back in there.

Doghouse Riley

• Have the Giants absolutely ruled out signing a FA pitcher like Suarez?

Steve Adams

• Ranger or Robert? I assume you mean Ranger.Greg Johnson downplaying the idea of a long-term deal doesn’t mean they won’t ultimately sign a pitcher for multiple years, or even to a semi-long-term pact. The Giants were putting out signals to their beat last year that they might not go wild with spending or anything, and then they signed Adames and traded for Devers.

  In the wake of Johnson’s comments, I don’t expect them to go long-term on a FA SP, but if something they deem the right opportunity presents itself, I’m sure they’ll consider it.

  Johnson making the comments he did feels different than, say, White Sox GM Chris Getz pretty strongly indicating last week that he doesn’t want to sign free agents for more than a year.

John Travolta

• What type of contract do you think Cedric Mullins will fetch?

Steve Adams

• I tried to push for Mullins on a two-year deal to get him to the back end of the list, but most of the rest of the staff was pretty set on him as a one-year guy in the $10-12MM range. He was awful after April, and the 30-30, 6-WAR season from 2021 feels like a clear outlier at this point.I like him to do a bit better than that, but whatever he signs, I don’t expect it to go beyond two years and don’t think it’ll have an especially high AAV.

JC

• Let’s say the Pirates flip Burrows and Keller for bats, also freeing up capital for a few years on Keller’s deal. Opening day rotation starts Skenes-Chandler-Ashcraft-Oviedo. Do you add a 5th starter (classic Cherington soft-tossing lefty) or give Hunter Barco a shot?

Steve Adams

• You’re forgetting Jared Jones as a potential entrant in that rotation. He’ll be more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery.But I still think if they traded Keller and Burrows both, then yes, they’d add a cheap one-year SP in February or so.

Charlesco

• Hello, can Murakami hit high speed pitches? I saw one stat but I do not believe is real.

Steve Adams

• He’s struggled greatly against fastballs north of 95 mph, but those are also quite rare in NPB, where the average heater is like 91 mph. Guys like Seiya Suzuki and Jung Hoo Lee also had some concerns about their ability to handle plus MLB velo, but they sorted it out as they became more accustomed to seeing it.Talked to an NL scout recently who said he’s more concerned with Murakami being able to adjust to better breaking stuff here than he is about his ability to adjust to fastballs, where he thinks Murakami will be fine after more exposure to said velo.

Mets fan

• Make me believe diaz and alonso will come back. If they do what else do we need plus a top level starter?

Steve Adams

• I don’t believe Alonso will be back. Diaz, maybe if Steve Cohen just swoops in and acts aggressively early on, but we’re already further into the offseason now than we were last time he re-signed with the Mets.I didn’t choose either to re-sign, but Diaz feels more plausible.

Jim

• A’s don’t get a PPI pick because Nick Kurtz spent 3 weeks in AAA. What about in future years if he finishes top 3 in MVP voting; do the A’s get a PPI pick then? Or are they out of luck because he debuted 3 weeks into the 2025 season?

Steve Adams

• They’d get a pick in that MVP scenario.

Oz

• If you are advising Alex Anthopoulos, do you urge him to make a big push to bring Raisel Iglesias back and, if so, what contract do you offer him in terms of years and money?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Iglesias, specifically, is a must-have. Generally, just adding some quality arms in the back of the ’pen seems wise, though. I have Iglesias at 2/25

PaulF

• Is Casas with Alonzo so far fetched? Gives two power bats , one from each side, and both can at least take field defensively. Current DH not so much. More outfield depth still a weapon if trade needed. And we still have money .

Steve Adams

• If the Red Sox signed Alonso, I’d expect them to trade Casas, but sure you could make it work if you just dump Yoshida.

James

• Will Rendon be released?

Steve Adams

• Wouldn’t surprise me.

Adell

• Do the Angels keep Adell and believe the breakout or sell high based on last year to add multiple pieces

Steve Adams

• I don’t know that you’re selling that high on Adell. He hit 36 homers, but he was terrible defensively and his OBP was under .300.He’s a useful player and I do think he could fetch them an arm to plug into the middle/back end of the rotation, but he’s not going to fetch them a major haul — at least not in my view. But hey, even a serviceable fourth starter with a few years of control would be big for the Angels, given their perennial need for pitching. And Adell’s defensive grades would surely tick up if he weren’t being forced to masquerade as a center fielder.

Johnny U

• do you feel the Reds bring in a 1B/DH or an OF as their big bat, via trade or signing?

Steve Adams

• I expect them to be open to it but think it could just as likely be in the OF — or that they could (should) add one of each

PhilsPhansince1965

• How much of the Tajuan Walker contract can we unload this winter if we take back a couple of nominal prospect types?

Steve Adams

• I think you could dump half to 60% for no return. They’re not going to get a good prospect even if they eat the whole thing, but if they absorb 75% or more, I suppose you could get the “nominal” prospect you’re referencing here.

POBO Paul

• Breslow says the Bosox are looking for a starting pitcher.  Would they hve any intereat in Mackenzie Gore?  What kind of return could we expect?

Steve Adams

• I’m sure the Red Sox do have interest, and I’ve said before that last year’s Crochet-to-Boston trade is a decent framework for what to expect re: Gore.

Adam

• True or False. The Reds have a top 5 rotation in all of baseball

Steve Adams

• Off the cuff, I think this is probably right. Greene-Abbott-Lodolo-Singer-Burns, with Petty/Lowder waiting in the wings. Tons of talent there.

AstrosFAN

• Could Christian Walker go back to the Diamondbacks?

Steve Adams

• I tried to kick around an Eduardo Rodriguez-for-Christian Walker framework but couldn’t get there. The D-backs need innings, too, and they have cheap 1B options in Locklear/Pavin Smith. Paying $20MM per year for another first baseman — even one they love — and reducing their rotation to basically Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson doesn’t seem prudent.Can’t count on E-Rod for a ton right now, but at least you can hope he gives you innings.

Benson DuBois

• Are the Pirates going to have a hard time dealing Keller?  There are good free agent options at 3 years/$54MM.  No need to trade a good bat for Keller if you can get a comparable talent on the open market.

Steve Adams

• Keller at 3/54 is solid value. It’s true there are pitchers like Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt who could be had on shorter deals, but they’d require larger AAVs and are already 37.If Keller were a free agent coming off this season (really his past several seasons) and heading to market ahead of his age-30 campaign, you’re not getting him for “only” three years. There’ not necessarily a ton of surplus value AAV-wise, but a durable 30-year-old midrotation arm is going to get four or five years.

Drive to left by Castellanos

• Any chance the Phils swap Casty to St. Louis for Arenado? Then flip Bohm to the Angels for Ward? Arenado has two years left, so that could appeal to the Cards.

Steve Adams

• Arenado’s contract is even less desirable than Castellanos’. And I’d rather have Taylor Ward than Alec Bohm.

Bregman or Tucker

• Who gets the higher aav?

Bailey Ober

• If Pablo and Joe are traded, what will become of me? I may as well get traded too then, right?

Steve Adams

• Eh, the Twins would be selling low enough that the return would be pretty negligible. And if you’re trading Lopez/Ryan, you need SOMEONE to pitch innings. I think they’d hang onto Ober. Could always move him in July if he’s bounced back (and/or if younger arms have jumped into the rotation mix)
• Fwiw, i am very much team Tucker in this poll, too.

MLP

• Iron Man Adams back on the mound again today, I see.  If the Cubs were to find a deal acceptable to Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki, how much of their final year salaries would they have to absorb to get a useful return?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think they’d need to eat money for either player, but both have full no-trade clauses.

Brian

• Do the Yankees prioritize Tucker or Bellinger? If Tucker, will that put Bellinger on the back burner until Tucker is signed? (I.e. just like waiting for Soto to sign before pivoting)

Steve Adams

• In general, I think Tucker feels likelier to sign earlier. Boras tends to be pretty comfortable waiting. They’re in a tough spot with Bellinger a little bit. If his market does pick up early, the Yanks could run into the same scenario they saw with Willy Adames last winter … interested, but unwilling to commit until they know how the bigger fish pans out. By the time Soto was off the board last winter, it was too late on Adames.

Tim

• Heard some early rumors Kazuma Okamoto wants to play for the Halos? You hearing any truth to that?

Steve Adams

• I don’t know anything about the Angels podcaster who reported that. I wouldn’t put much stock in it this early. Like most free agents, you can assume Okamoto’s priorities will be:1) Role (he’s not going to sign as a part-time player)
  2) Money
  3) Winning
  4) Location

  Maybe he became an Angels fan during Ohtani’s heyday there. But even still, if a contending club offers him its everyday 3B job at comparable or greater money to what the Angels put out, then that prior affinity for the Halos won’t matter much

LaTroy Hawkins

• Any chance I’m both the bullpen coach and opening day closer in Minnesota this year?

Steve Adams

• I endorse this.

Dan

• Harrison Bader makes too much sense for the O’s IMO.

Steve Adams

• Bader is a plus defensive OF who can hit a little bit and will at absolute max cost three years — two seems likelier. He fits/makes tons of sense for a lot of teams.

Gabe’s Gaffs

• What’s the over/under on the number of players the Marlins churn through with Kapler as the GM

Steve Adams

• Kapler isn’t running baseball operations. He’s the GM, but Peter Bendix is the president of baseball ops. Kapler is the No. 2 in that hierarchy

AA

• Who is DH for Atlanta next year?

Steve Adams

• I imagine after years of having a set DH, they’ll just rotate guys through the position this year

Cleveland

• I would say Cleveland makes the most sense for a Ketel Marte trade. Good farm, and he could hit in front of Jose, which has been a problem for years trying to find production there. They also have the farm to pull it off.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think Arizona is trading Ketel Marte. Even if they did, I have a hard time seeing a low-payroll club like the Guards make that move when Travis Bazzana is so close to the majors and plays the same position.

Yoshida

• Is it possible that I end up just like Rusney Castillo and in AAA playing out my contract?

Steve Adams

• Rusney was sequestered in AAA because of the now-defunct rule that his contract didn’t count toward the Red Sox’ CBT bill unless they added him back. Yoshida’s 18MM AAV counts for the Sox no matter what they do with him.He might still end up playing in AAA, but if he does, it’ll be because he’s just not performing well enough to merit an MLB look

Derek Shelton

• What other former Twins greats will I bring onto my coaching staff?

Steve Adams

• Star Tribune reported this morning that the Twins want James Rowson as a bench coach

Djboy2898

• What would it cost the Giants to get trade for Brandon Lowe? Would trading Ramos for Mitch Keller or Pablo Lopez be enough

Steve Adams

• Ramos isn’t enough for either, especially Lopez
• Brandon Lowe … it’s one year at $11.5MM. Notable injury history, plenty of swing-and-miss. He has some value but it’s not through the roof or anything. Couple of 40 or 45 FV prospects

Jed

• Matt Shaw and a TOR starter or go outside the organization to fill 3rd base and go lesser in the rotation?

Steve Adams

• Latter scenario is likelier. I’m not personally huge on Matt Shaw after 2025. I don’t think it’s at all out of the question that he just puts it together in his second year, but there weren’t a ton of positives in his rookie campaign other than the plus DRS rating at 3B.I assume there are teams (probably including the Cubs) who are higher on Shaw than me, so in the very hypothetical scenario (which Cubs fans should not at all want), I’d be seeing what kind of SP I could get with Shaw as one of the headliners and then looking at 3B alternatives.

  I put the Cubs on Kazuma Okamoto on our Top 50 for this reason (and because I had a hard time placing Okamoto in general, ha)

Arte Moreno

• What’s a realistic return for Taylor Ward?

Steve Adams

• I will call for the Brady Singer/Taylor Ward trade until I’m blue in the face. Or until it happens. Or until one of them is traded for a different player

Tim

• Clase and Ortiz definite banned from baseball?

Steve Adams

• I don’t see how either comes back from this.

Vrmind

• Back to ATL: Baldwin just won ROY, they got Murphy coming off an injured/down year. How do you see that playing out? Just rotate the two through C/DH or start shopping Murph this off-season just to get rid of the contract?

Steve Adams

• Rotate them. They’d be selling low on Murphy. Having both gives them a nice C/DH tandem next year, protects against further health trouble for one or the other, and keeps open the possibility of eventually dealing Murphy when his value is higher.
• Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social if you have more questions.If you want more opinions from the MLBTR team, you can learn about our Front Office subscription package and sign up here. In addition to ad-free viewing on the site and in the app, you’ll get weekly analysis/opinion columns from Anthony Franco and myself, a weekly mailbag column from Tim Dierkes, weekly fantasy baseball chats and columns with Nicklaus Gaut, weekly subscriber-only chats with Anthony and me (where your odds of getting a question answered are much, much higher), extra insight from Darragh McDonald, access to our Contract Tracker (a vital offseason resource) and our Agency Database, and more.

  Thanks all!