Entries for MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Free Agent Prediction Contest closed on November 13, with 4,604 different readers submitting their choice of landing spot for each of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. This year, we’re going to provide another fun resource for reference purposes — which teams were the most popular choices for each of the 50 players.
As you might expect, the bigger-spending teams got a lot of attention, though 21 of the 30 teams were the top choice for at least one free agent. (The Rockies, Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Guardians, Royals, and Twins were the only teams not listed as a top choice.) Of the six players who have already signed, the plurality or majority of contestants correctly identified that Josh Naylor, Raisel Iglesias, and the qualifying offer-accepting quartet of Brandon Woodruff, Trent Grisham, Shota Imanaga, and Gleyber Torres would remain with their 2025 teams.
The most popular choice of all 50 players was Bo Bichette returning to the Blue Jays, with 81.5% of contestants predicting a reunion. This narrowly edged out Kyle Schwarber (79.9%) and J.T. Realmuto (76.1%) re-signing with Philadelphia, as readers are confident that the Phillies will retain those two veteran bats, but there is far less of a consensus about the chances of Ranger Suarez (13.2%) returning to Philly. Eight percent of readers predict Ryan Helsley to the Marlins, which represented the lowest top choice of any player in the top 50.
- Kyle Tucker: Dodgers (39.9%), Yankees (17.8%)
- Bo Bichette: Blue Jays (81.5%)
- Dylan Cease: Red Sox (20.9%), Cubs (17%), Mets (13.9%)
- Munetaka Murakami: Mets (20.3%), Mariners (17.4%), Dodgers (16.7%)
- Alex Bregman: Red Sox (37.3%), Tigers (30.3%)
- Framber Valdez: Giants (18.7%), Mets (14.2%), Orioles (10.2%), Cubs (9.8%)
- Tatsuya Imai: Dodgers (20.2%), Mets (13.7%), Giants (12.7%), Cubs (12.6%)
- Cody Bellinger: Yankees (61.2%)
- Kyle Schwarber: Phillies (79.9%)
- Ranger Suarez: Blue Jays (13.2%), Cubs (12.7%), Phillies (12.3%)
- Pete Alonso: Mets (35.8%), Red Sox (29.6%)
- Josh Naylor: Mariners (72.6%)
- Edwin Diaz: Mets (38.1%), Dodgers (23.2%), Yankees (10.2%)
- Michael King: Orioles (14.5%), Padres (12.3%), Yankees (11.8%)
- Zac Gallen: Diamondbacks (26.3%), Giants (10.4%), Angels (8.1%)
- Devin Williams: Dodgers (23.3%), Mets (9%)
- Brandon Woodruff: Brewers (30.3%), Mets (18.4%)
- Trent Grisham: Yankees (25.9%), Angels (13.2%)
- Kazuma Okamoto: Dodgers (11.6%), Padres (10.9%), Mariners (10%), Angels (9.9%),
- Eugenio Suarez: Mariners (18.7%), Reds (17.5%)
- Robert Suarez: Dodgers (15.7%), Mets (13.7%), Blue Jays (7%)
- Shota Imanaga: Cubs (22.1%), Angels (11.6%)
- Jorge Polanco: Mariners (37.7%), Royals (7.8%)
- Chris Bassitt: Blue Jays (30.8%), Braves (15.7%)
- Merrill Kelly: Diamondbacks (38.5%), Rangers (7.3%)
- Brad Keller: Cubs (15.6%), Braves (12.2%), Yankees (11.6%)
- Lucas Giolito: Red Sox (21.1%), Orioles (9.6%)
- Ha-Seong Kim: Braves (45.4%)
- J.T. Realmuto: Phillies (76.1%)
- Ryan O’Hearn: Marlins (18%), Padres (8.4%)
- Harrison Bader: Phillies (15.6%), Royals (11.9%), Guardians (8.8%)
- Raisel Iglesias: Braves (24.3%)
- Nick Martinez: Reds (9.6%), Padres (8.7%)
- Luis Arraez: Rangers (12.2%), Padres (9.1%), Angels (7.4%)
- Zack Littell: Angels (12.9%)
- Ryan Helsley: Marlins (8%)
- Gleyber Torres: Tigers (59.4%)
- Justin Verlander: Tigers (29.1%), Astros (18.2%), Giants (18.2%)
- Cody Ponce: Brewers (11%), Cardinals (10.1%)
- Kyle Finnegan: Tigers (28.1%)
- Luke Weaver: Yankees (17.4%), Cubs (9%)
- Tyler Rogers: Mets (16.1%), Orioles (13.2%), Giants (13.1%)
- Seranthony Dominguez: Blue Jays (25%)
- Pete Fairbanks: Dodgers (12.9%), Cubs (9.3%)
- Gregory Soto: Blue Jays (14.3%)
- Emilio Pagan: Reds (28.8%)
- Tyler Mahle: Athletics (8.9%), Rangers (8.5%)
- Max Scherzer: Blue Jays (33.2%), Giants (14.4%), Tigers (11.9%)
- Victor Caratini: Rays (22.3%), Astros (11.9%)
- Willi Castro: Padres (10.6%)
A very popular answer those White Sox
If there’s any solace in that, is that the Rockies were just as popular.
You don’t see the Reds mentioned much. People on this site are realistic. 😉
Thank you so much for putting this together! It’s going to be so interesting to see how much this ends up aligning with all the signings by Spring Training.
Morris – Yes this is always great fun to participate in ….. especially when we can follow how we are doing and how others are doing.
Am I missing something, when will the public leaderboard be posted?? It’s been 11 days since the window to make picks has been closed.
“After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams. ”
Every type of contest that involves selections should always publicly display the selections of every participant, primarily to maintain the integrity of the competition.
Anybody got any info on this?
Stop being ridiculous. The top prize is $500; who don’t think is rigging it? Too much Fox News for you I think.
Wow, all this moving around is going to make it tough for Harrison Bader to pick his hat for his HOF plaque.
That’s hilarious.
Hilarious that the Pirates don’t show up on any of the top 50. Even the Marlins had a couple. Just wow.
Why “wow”?
Pirates signed one Top 50 player last year, so odds are pretty low you’d pick the one this year. Its safer to guess Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox on a player youre not sure about, rather than guess thats the one Pirates sign. Its a probability thing.
Why would anyone expect the Pirates to spend money?
IF…IF decision-makers in Manfred’s office cared about how fans feel about competitive balance, they’d see a list like this, where the frustration is that most players seem destined to become Dodgers, especially those from Asia, and take action. But as long as the commissioner’s people, TV networks and sponsors control whether there’s a cap or not, it will continue like this, indefinitely.
And the game will keep dying in flyover country.
It’s not Manfred’s job to care about the fans. He’s employed by the owners and represents their interests. He’s not the commissioner of baseball, he’s the commissioner of Major League Baseball, which is a business. As long as enough owners make enough money, the status quo will continue.
Manfred isn’t the devil, he’s a rodeo clown who distracts angry fans from the ones responsible for the current situation: the owners. I’m sure even some of the low budget team owners are happy. They grab that sweet revenue sharing, put out another bargain basement roster, and watch the cash roll in.
Rodeo clown. That is so accurate thank you.
“especially those from Asia”
I’ll keep saying this: Not all of them are going to the Dodgers.
And these are merely predictions, so you got old miserable goofs like “This one belongs to the Reds” picking the Dodgers for any Asian player out of spite and stereotyping.
Stereotyping = “old miserable goofs”
Pot, meet kettle.
For a team who’s believed to be very active, the Red Sox were only favored on four players.
Giolito probably isn’t coming back. The Bregman/Alonso conundrum is 50/50 at this point. I’d say one or the other, not both. Although both would be sweet. Cease would be a light #2, but I wouldn’t hate that pick up.
I would hope BOS is in on more than just these guys. Need to reload the LHs in the bullpen.
I think people found the BoSox a condundrum. They seem to be a team that can spend a buck or two on the top guys but last year didn’t seem to. So that’s probably why they weren’t favored highly on guys.
They could prove everyone wrong this time around.
To: This one
“last year didnt seem to”
Red Sox signed Bregman, Buehler and locked up Chris Sale after the trade. They spent a lot more than most.
@Reggie: Garrett Crochet? If the BoSox wanted to keep paying Sale to pitch for the Braves last season, I’m sure Atlanta would’ve said “oh yeah.”
Lol, oops.
@Reggie: I knew who you meant Reggie. Just having some fun w/you, lol. Great screen name, btw. One of baseball’s more under appreciated players, imo.
To swanhenge:
If youre playing this contest to win, theres a completely sound logic to picking both Bregman and Alonso to the Red Sox, even if you dont think they’ll sign them both.
If you believe they are destined to get one or the other, its a safe bet to pick them both, then, assuming you were right, you’ll have 50% correct.
I did it last year with 3 FA SP for the Red Sox, assuming they were definitely adding an ace, but then they traded for Crochet. Doh!
Zac Gallen is the only player mentioned with the Angels, who would actually help improve the team. Zack Little has Tyler Anderson 2.0 written all over him. No thanks. Luis Arraez doesn’t fit what the Angels need. The Angels need to desperately improve their defense. He actually will make it worse.
I’m not really sure what they can do. One or two players won’t move the needle. They finished 3rd worst in the AL standings last season, with the 25th worst offense in the majors by OPS+ and tied for 27th worst in the majors for team ERA+. They may have just traded away their 3rd best hitter for the pitching equivalent of a handful of magic beans.
This is a crappy time to be an Angels fan. They have so little to build with. Even if Grayson Rodriguez actually turns into an ace, they’re still about a dozen or so position player and pitcher upgrades away from being a contender.
This franchise really needs a reset or a rebuild or something. Or at the very least, a new owner who has a better idea how to run a team.
Why not just say-Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Yankees! If this teams sign as many as the this shows- they have to drop 20 guys from their regular roster!😄😄😄
It’s sad that the Phillies prediction is simply run it back completely. Not a single new person predicted by the site.
“It’s sad that the Phillies prediction is simply run it back completely. Not a single new person predicted by the site.”
So what?
Are you suggesting there is some kind of collective wisdom at work here?