Entries for MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Free Agent Prediction Contest closed on November 13, with 4,604 different readers submitting their choice of landing spot for each of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. This year, we’re going to provide another fun resource for reference purposes — which teams were the most popular choices for each of the 50 players.
As you might expect, the bigger-spending teams got a lot of attention, though 21 of the 30 teams were the top choice for at least one free agent. (The Rockies, Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Guardians, Royals, and Twins were the only teams not listed as a top choice.) Of the six players who have already signed, the plurality or majority of contestants correctly identified that Josh Naylor, Raisel Iglesias, and the qualifying offer-accepting quartet of Brandon Woodruff, Trent Grisham, Shota Imanaga, and Gleyber Torres would remain with their 2025 teams.
The most popular choice of all 50 players was Bo Bichette returning to the Blue Jays, with 81.5% of contestants predicting a reunion. This narrowly edged out Kyle Schwarber (79.9%) and J.T. Realmuto (76.1%) re-signing with Philadelphia, as readers are confident that the Phillies will retain those two veteran bats, but there is far less of a consensus about the chances of Ranger Suarez (13.2%) returning to Philly. Eight percent of readers predict Ryan Helsley to the Marlins, which represented the lowest top choice of any player in the top 50.
- Kyle Tucker: Dodgers (39.9%), Yankees (17.8%)
- Bo Bichette: Blue Jays (81.5%)
- Dylan Cease: Red Sox (20.9%), Cubs (17%), Mets (13.9%)
- Munetaka Murakami: Mets (20.3%), Mariners (17.4%), Dodgers (16.7%)
- Alex Bregman: Red Sox (37.3%), Tigers (30.3%)
- Framber Valdez: Giants (18.7%), Mets (14.2%), Orioles (10.2%), Cubs (9.8%)
- Tatsuya Imai: Dodgers (20.2%), Mets (13.7%), Giants (12.7%), Cubs (12.6%)
- Cody Bellinger: Yankees (61.2%)
- Kyle Schwarber: Phillies (79.9%)
- Ranger Suarez: Blue Jays (13.2%), Cubs (12.7%), Phillies (12.3%)
- Pete Alonso: Mets (35.8%), Red Sox (29.6%)
- Josh Naylor: Mariners (72.6%)
- Edwin Diaz: Mets (38.1%), Dodgers (23.2%), Yankees (10.2%)
- Michael King: Orioles (14.5%), Padres (12.3%), Yankees (11.8%)
- Zac Gallen: Diamondbacks (26.3%), Giants (10.4%), Angels (8.1%)
- Devin Williams: Dodgers (23.3%), Mets (9%)
- Brandon Woodruff: Brewers (30.3%), Mets (18.4%)
- Trent Grisham: Yankees (25.9%), Angels (13.2%)
- Kazuma Okamoto: Dodgers (11.6%), Padres (10.9%), Mariners (10%), Angels (9.9%),
- Eugenio Suarez: Mariners (18.7%), Reds (17.5%)
- Robert Suarez: Dodgers (15.7%), Mets (13.7%), Blue Jays (7%)
- Shota Imanaga: Cubs (22.1%), Angels (11.6%)
- Jorge Polanco: Mariners (37.7%), Royals (7.8%)
- Chris Bassitt: Blue Jays (30.8%), Braves (15.7%)
- Merrill Kelly: Diamondbacks (38.5%), Rangers (7.3%)
- Brad Keller: Cubs (15.6%), Braves (12.2%), Yankees (11.6%)
- Lucas Giolito: Red Sox (21.1%), Orioles (9.6%)
- Ha-Seong Kim: Braves (45.4%)
- J.T. Realmuto: Phillies (76.1%)
- Ryan O’Hearn: Marlins (18%), Padres (8.4%)
- Harrison Bader: Phillies (15.6%), Royals (11.9%), Guardians (8.8%)
- Raisel Iglesias: Braves (24.3%)
- Nick Martinez: Reds (9.6%), Padres (8.7%)
- Luis Arraez: Rangers (12.2%), Padres (9.1%), Angels (7.4%)
- Zack Littell: Angels (12.9%)
- Ryan Helsley: Marlins (8%)
- Gleyber Torres: Tigers (59.4%)
- Justin Verlander: Tigers (29.1%), Astros (18.2%), Giants (18.2%)
- Cody Ponce: Brewers (11%), Cardinals (10.1%)
- Kyle Finnegan: Tigers (28.1%)
- Luke Weaver: Yankees (17.4%), Cubs (9%)
- Tyler Rogers: Mets (16.1%), Orioles (13.2%), Giants (13.1%)
- Seranthony Dominguez: Blue Jays (25%)
- Pete Fairbanks: Dodgers (12.9%), Cubs (9.3%)
- Gregory Soto: Blue Jays (14.3%)
- Emilio Pagan: Reds (28.8%)
- Tyler Mahle: Athletics (8.9%), Rangers (8.5%)
- Max Scherzer: Blue Jays (33.2%), Giants (14.4%), Tigers (11.9%)
- Victor Caratini: Rays (22.3%), Astros (11.9%)
- Willi Castro: Padres (10.6%)
A very popular answer those White Sox
If there’s any solace in that, is that the Rockies were just as popular.
I was surprised by the Astros
That would be hilarious. They would have to pay him $400M!
Yeah thinking Belli back to the Yankees is almost a lock. I would trade for Kwan and put him in left and play Belli at lst base.I would offer Ben Rice and a pitching prospect for Kwan.
Look at that distribution: nearly all high revenue teams for the best talent.
You don’t see the Reds mentioned much. People on this site are realistic. 😉
Thank you so much for putting this together! It’s going to be so interesting to see how much this ends up aligning with all the signings by Spring Training.
Morris – Yes this is always great fun to participate in ….. especially when we can follow how we are doing and how others are doing.
Am I missing something, when will the public leaderboard be posted?? It’s been 11 days since the window to make picks has been closed.
“After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams. ”
Every type of contest that involves selections should always publicly display the selections of every participant, primarily to maintain the integrity of the competition.
Anybody got any info on this?
Stop being ridiculous. The top prize is $500; who don’t think is rigging it? Too much Fox News for you I think.
Or CNN. I am an equal, I call BS where the media is concerned subscriber.
MLBTR has posted the leaderboard in the past, and I would assume that is probably coming along soon. I kept the leaderboard post pinned on my browser the last two years and will do the same this year when it’s up.
Morris – Yeah I’m sure it’s either a technical issue or just slipped through the cracks, shouldn’t take very long to rectify.
Wow, all this moving around is going to make it tough for Harrison Bader to pick his hat for his HOF plaque.
That’s hilarious.
Hilarious that the Pirates don’t show up on any of the top 50. Even the Marlins had a couple. Just wow.
Why “wow”?
Pirates signed one Top 50 player last year, so odds are pretty low you’d pick the one this year. Its safer to guess Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox on a player youre not sure about, rather than guess thats the one Pirates sign. Its a probability thing.
Because many people who DONT follow the Pirates had them signing Tyler O’Neill last offseason.
My WOW was that people have finally lernt that Bob Nutting won’t spend
Why would anyone expect the Pirates to spend money?
My WOW was because people have finally learned that Nutting won’t spend. Every year MLBTR and “fans” have guessed the Bucs would or should spend on everyone from Tyler O’neill to Rhys Hoskins when Bucs fans would just shake their heads in the corner.
So true about Nutting, to clearify my point.
Id bet he’ll have at least one signing in the top 50 this year, just like last (Heaney), but picking it in this contest, would be very tough. Safer to stay clear because they’re only going to shop the bargain bin at the end, and there is no way to predict who it’s going to be.
IF…IF decision-makers in Manfred’s office cared about how fans feel about competitive balance, they’d see a list like this, where the frustration is that most players seem destined to become Dodgers, especially those from Asia, and take action. But as long as the commissioner’s people, TV networks and sponsors control whether there’s a cap or not, it will continue like this, indefinitely.
And the game will keep dying in flyover country.
It’s not Manfred’s job to care about the fans. He’s employed by the owners and represents their interests. He’s not the commissioner of baseball, he’s the commissioner of Major League Baseball, which is a business. As long as enough owners make enough money, the status quo will continue.
Manfred isn’t the devil, he’s a rodeo clown who distracts angry fans from the ones responsible for the current situation: the owners. I’m sure even some of the low budget team owners are happy. They grab that sweet revenue sharing, put out another bargain basement roster, and watch the cash roll in.
Rodeo clown. That is so accurate thank you.
Manfred, his “decision makers,” TV Networks, sponsors, etc don’t have the control or power to implement a salary cap if they wanted to. It would have to be collectively bargained between the owners and the players association; then it would become part of a new CBA.
It’s a mute topic of conversation though because the PA will never agree to a salary cap. Maximizing the earning potential for players is the PA’s # 1 objective above all else!
The “hard cap” on international spending implemented in 2017 is as close to any kind of salary cap situation the players association would ever agree to.
IMO… MLB fans league wide, specifically of small market teams should be calling for a “salary floor!” There are too many owners who don’t prioritize on field success and are more than happy to simply maximize profits. A “salary floor” or something similar could fine organizations and hold their owners accountable for not spending enough on the teams payroll each season! The bottom line… The ownerships of the Marlins, Pirates, White Sox, A’s, Rockies, etc need to increase their payrolls in order to support competitive balance!!!
Despite the large market narrative, most discussion of a salary cap also includes a floor as that is how it works in other successful leagues.
However, until ALL revenues are distributed evenly, a floor discussion is a moot point.
My main point was that any sort of “cap” is unrealistic as long as the PA is involved in negotiations.
And any type of “floor” spending is unrealistic as long as most of the owners have a vote!
Honestly I’m just hoping the millionaires and billionaires don’t end up costing us fans any part of a season. I’m a Dodgers fan but also just a baseball fan. There are so many talented players that would be a real shame to not be able to watch
Agreed on not missing any games because of this, but the scuttlebutt I hear is that it probably will.
For a team who’s believed to be very active, the Red Sox were only favored on four players.
Giolito probably isn’t coming back. The Bregman/Alonso conundrum is 50/50 at this point. I’d say one or the other, not both. Although both would be sweet. Cease would be a light #2, but I wouldn’t hate that pick up.
I would hope BOS is in on more than just these guys. Need to reload the LHs in the bullpen.
I think people found the BoSox a condundrum. They seem to be a team that can spend a buck or two on the top guys but last year didn’t seem to. So that’s probably why they weren’t favored highly on guys.
They could prove everyone wrong this time around.
To: This one
“last year didnt seem to”
Red Sox signed Bregman, Buehler and locked up Chris Sale after the trade. They spent a lot more than most.
@Reggie: Garrett Crochet? If the BoSox wanted to keep paying Sale to pitch for the Braves last season, I’m sure Atlanta would’ve said “oh yeah.”
Lol, oops.
@Reggie: I knew who you meant Reggie. Just having some fun w/you, lol. Great screen name, btw. One of baseball’s more under appreciated players, imo.
Don’t waste time on This one. He has no clue what he’s talking about. Long time Debbie downer on Reds threads.
Hi FPG!
To swanhenge:
If youre playing this contest to win, theres a completely sound logic to picking both Bregman and Alonso to the Red Sox, even if you dont think they’ll sign them both.
If you believe they are destined to get one or the other, its a safe bet to pick them both, then, assuming you were right, you’ll have 50% correct.
I did it last year with 3 FA SP for the Red Sox, assuming they were definitely adding an ace, but then they traded for Crochet. Doh!
That’s what I did picking 3 closers to the Braves.
Yeah, I picked Iggy and Keller to the Braves.
yeah count the giants ones, it is 1 and the player it is for is based on johnson’s words not a player they are planning on going after
Zac Gallen is the only player mentioned with the Angels, who would actually help improve the team. Zack Little has Tyler Anderson 2.0 written all over him. No thanks. Luis Arraez doesn’t fit what the Angels need. The Angels need to desperately improve their defense. He actually will make it worse.
I’m not really sure what they can do. One or two players won’t move the needle. They finished 3rd worst in the AL standings last season, with the 25th worst offense in the majors by OPS+ and tied for 27th worst in the majors for team ERA+. They may have just traded away their 3rd best hitter for the pitching equivalent of a handful of magic beans.
This is a crappy time to be an Angels fan. They have so little to build with. Even if Grayson Rodriguez actually turns into an ace, they’re still about a dozen or so position player and pitcher upgrades away from being a contender.
This franchise really needs a reset or a rebuild or something. Or at the very least, a new owner who has a better idea how to run a team.
The Angels aren’t going to pull a Rangers and sign 10+ of the top FA, in a 2 year span. Arraez, should only play first base. Is his bat worth paying him 8 to 10 million more than Nolan Schanuel? Not really. My argument is, other than the Gallen link, is the other players mentioned, are they a vast improvement over, what the Angels currently have on the roster. I seriously doubt the Angels sign anyone, attached to the QO. I’ve actually seen worse times as an Angels fan. The Angels need an every day CF, LF and 3rd baseman. Not to mention 2 starting pitchers. Plus 4 relievers. The Angels are not close to being contenders right now. That’s not even a debate. They are not going to sign all those needs, in FA. But they can’t just sign players, to say they signed players.
Why not just say-Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Yankees! If this teams sign as many as the this shows- they have to drop 20 guys from their regular roster!😄😄😄
It’s sad that the Phillies prediction is simply run it back completely. Not a single new person predicted by the site.
“It’s sad that the Phillies prediction is simply run it back completely. Not a single new person predicted by the site.”
So what?
Are you suggesting there is some kind of collective wisdom at work here?
The fact that 9 teams are not in on thi is what’s wrong with baseball!!
I disagree
They show up on the list for the bottom 50 free agents. Pirates name will be mentioned often as where some of these players end up.
No Nationals on the FA list, no Nationals as a destination.
Looking forward to the team that will take the field next year.
@Atlanta Jack
So in your estimation what is wrong with baseball are the opinions expressed by commenters on a chat board. Um, ok.
Wait, this doesn’t seem right. I was told by all the users on here that the Dodgers were signing everyone.
Theres only 26 roster spots, and 50 Free Agents on the list. So thats ridiculous.
@Reggie Smith
I’m sorry you don’t have a sense of humor.
Neither do you, obviously.
OY
It would have been closer to humorous if you had left out “by all”.
The distraction of that hyperbole messed up the timing.
C’mon York. Not ALL the users on here. You’re falling victim to squeaky wheel syndrome.
@NashvilleJeff
That’s what my doctor told me…
@Old York: There are worse things to be diagnosed with. Remember to get two opinions…………
@NashvilleJeff
I did, you and him… 🙂
@Old York: Yikes. If you’re counting mine, you better get three then……..
Old York, The Dodgers simply can not sign everyone!!! I have the Jays signing 25 of the top 50!!! LOL ( I should get a couple right???)
When’s the leaderboard being posted? I’d like to know if I’m 999th place or 499th.
How many do you have correct so far?
Missing on Imanaga only to this point, I’m counting on 5 putting me in the Top 10!!! Access to current standings will back up that claim …before the inevitable fade to a final total of 7 or 8
I may have peaked early …although 2/3 of my remaining picks are riding within the top two of the “favorites” listed above so I may be in for a better run than usual this off-season!
@kodion
Honestly, I can’t keep count. I think I have 3 or 4 correct.
The highest percentage links will follow what course? The player holds out for the biggest dollar from the likely signer, or the player settles early for a good but not maximal price, or the likely signing team sends a “shop, we will wait and top your best offer) or the likely signing team says “we want you back, but won’t wait forever because we have other holes?
Devin Williams to the Dodgers would be amusing
Is there any way I can go back and check what I picked? I checked my email and don’t see anything there. I made my predictions long enough ago that I don’t remember all of them, especially near the end of the list.
My email response includes all of my picks
I guess we cant post links in the comments. Apparently they deleted mine about Imai wanting to go to a team with no Japanese players already on the team. Oh well. I guess everyone will have to Lougle it and find the tweet.
Some of the choices were strategic. I don’t expect the Red Sox to sign all of Bregman; Alonso; Gallen and Valdez, but I do expect them to be active, so I put a lot of those names there in hopes to get 1 or 2 correct.
It’s always safe to play it that a random reliever will return to the old team like Pagan-Reds or Dominguez- Blue Jays, unless it was a disaster. It’s also logical to put the Dodgers into a bunch of relievers like Fairbanks/Suarez/Williams that are unlikely to stay and hope that some will sign.
the Imai one is interesting because in the wake of the interview where he said that he prefers to play on a team without other japanese players, the only one of the the teams in the prediction pics without japanese players is the giants
Thought this might be year Nats got some FA that were not just reclamation projects with hope of dumping at deadline. Oh well…
Bergman going back to Houston. Crazy?
Much as I’d love to see Ranger Suarez back with my Phillies, I think it’s a longshot. Phillies will spend what cheese they have on Schwarber, J.T. and perhaps Harrison Bader.
My best guess for Ranger would be the Giants or Texas. Anyway, wish Ranger the best wherever he lands.