The Red Sox announced that they have agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Jarren Duran for the 2026 season. MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reports that Duran will earn $7.7MM in 2026, with another $75K available in bonus money.
The move technically counts as an arbitration-avoiding signing since Duran is under arb control through 2028, though the Red Sox signed him to a one-year deal last winter that contained an $8MM club option for 2026. Boston has now declined that option, paid Duran a $100K buyout, and then inked this new deal that will ultimately save the club a bit of money. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey reports that Duran will earn a $25K bonus if he reaches 450 plate appearances, and then another $25K for each of the 500-PA and 550-PA thresholds.
MLB Trade Rumors’ Matt Swartz projected Duran for an $8.4MM salary in his second winter of arb-eligibility, but going to a hearing never seemed likely due to the existence of Boston’s club option. Duran is a Super Two player and thus has four arb years instead of the usual three, so he should continue to earn significant raises in his arbitration years if he keeps producing consistent results.
Duran hit .256/.332/.442 with 16 homers and 24 steals over 696 PA this season, and led the American League with 13 triples. While a 111 wRC+ and 3.9 fWAR are more than respectable, it did represent a notable step back from the 131 wRC+ and 6.8 fWAR that Duran posted in 2024.
Beyond his on-field results, the most notable aspect of Duran’s 2025 campaign have been the persistent trade rumors that have followed the outfielder for a few years now. With Roman Anthony emerging as a force in his rookie year, there has been even more speculation that the Sox might trade from their outfield surplus (i.e. Duran, Wilyer Abreu, or perhaps Ceddanne Rafaela) to address other roster needs, likely starting pitching. The existence of the club option means that the Red Sox probably had to get some kind of resolution on Duran’s 2026 salary done relatively quickly, yet this early settlement might also hint that the Sox wanted to remove one wrinkle in advance of any upcoming trade talks.
Trade him for pitching
Sign King
I agree sign King , drive Duran to the airport
Trade for Peralta or Ryan.. sign King plus Pete Alonso and Suarez..: put Mayers at SS if Story walk
Hope this doesn’t mean he’s staying
cre – I like Mark’s suggestion that Rafaela may be traded, although unlikely any team will be willing to take on his contract..
But if there’s one surplus the Red Sox have, it’s outfield defense. They have four very solid outfield gloves, therefore trading the worst hitter of the four would make sense. I doubt it happens though.
Why would teams be hesitant to take on his contract? It’s 6 years and $44M in guaranteed money, with an option for a 7th year. That’s beyond reasonable.
100% beyond reasonable
And only somebody who knows incredibly little about how to win in baseball, like Master Troll Fever, would suggest to just trade the guy with the worst bat when that guy is also the best CF in the AL and maybe in the top couple of players in defensive contribution across all positions in all of MLB, with the ability to continue to work on developing his offense.
Even the Marlins might trade a pitcher for Duran.
maine – Because glove-only players typically don’t make nearly $8M annually.
Myles Straw was making just $1.7M at Age 27.
Fever has a weird complex where he resents every player that was called up when Bloom was GM
Rafaela would make a lot more than Straw in arb due to his decent counting stats and a GG & Fielding Bible awards.
Sure he chases a bunch but he maximizes his quality of contact and his wRC+ last year was the same as the league average wRC+ for center fielders
$7.33M AAV for a CF with an average bat who’s also the best OF defender in the league is good value and will look like a steal from 2027-2031 where he would’ve made more without the extension
Fever he just won a gold glove in centerfield? You think his contract is still too expensive? He’s still young too.
There would be many suitors with that contract. His being the only righty bat though is why he won’t be traded. If the team keeps both Bregman and Story and then gets a right handed bopper for first, they won’t have to trade an outfielder. As Sox fans know, injuries are part of the equation. Wild card is “the Password” He could be the righty bat replacing Rafaela or he with Casas and others could be dealt for pitching.
Gary – Today’s game makes it harder to carry glove-only players on the roster, with the very short bench and all.
Yes my hope is that he continues to improve and then the contract becomes a non-issue!
dewey – Abreu’s numbers vs LHP is virtually identical to Rafaela’s, and Roman’s is way better. Only Duran had really poor numbers vs LHP this season.
Why the hate for Duran? I’d keep him over Abreu or Rafaela.
Talk about penny-pinching. The Red Sox decline an $8 mill. option in favor of a $100k buyout and then proceed to sign him to a $7.7 mill. contract (plus bonuses). They’ll net between $125k and $200k depending on how the bonuses work out.
Yep, I’ll take this time to mention that the owners of the Red Sox make a metric ton of money from the team. Quibbling over 200k is chump change considering what they paid Duran for the value he provided during the 2024 season.
Did it ever occur you you fans who have some pathological need to perpetually bash everything the team FO and ownership does that while the “penny pinching” here doesn’t mean much to the Sox it could be a bit more significant to a potential trade partner this winter if they look to trade him?
If the Red Sox were concerned about Duran’s salary, they could always include some money in the trade. As I said in my previous comment, the Sox make FSG a ton of money. If they care about 4MM (if he won MVP, and even then 12MM for an MVP? Wow, what a steal!) for a player of Duran’s caliber, that’s concerning.
Or that small amount the difference in staying under the tax threshold? Duran did not have to sign it so why should us fans worry about it?
Players and agents notice these things, and the net effect is to engender a lack of trust in the organization.
That’s a pretty silly take vis a vie agents not trusting the organszation considering Duran and his agent obviously chose to sign this contract with the sox. Duran didn’t have to sign the contract if he had a problem with it.
It’s a lot more complex than that. He also had escalators off of the $8M that could increase it by another $150k based on plate appearances, It could have also gone as high as $12M for winning MVP (and varying degrees in-between depending on placement in MVP voting).
Most interestingly though, to me at least, is the option would have been void if he was traded this offseason and he would have been arb eligible on his new team. This guarantees the contract for next year even if he’s traded. He made $3.85M this year, so was his 2025 good enough to get him this much in arbitration? I legitimately don’t know.
@mainsox, the primary reason i can see this being useful is it guarantees a trade partner what the cost of the player is and that they don’t have to have an arbitration fight. I am almost certain this means he is on the block and other teams have asked about his option and expressed concern for the arb process. Could mean he is being moved soon, or just prepping for it later this off-season.
Bob, what is surprising to me is there are no trade kickers or team restrictions on where he could be dealt.
Good color, mainesox. Under that thinking, the new contract gives Duran certainty in the event of a trade. I’m not sure what the Red Sox save besides $125k-$200k in the event he isn’t traded. Given his huge home-away splits, I’m not sure he’s worth $8 mill.-ish to someone else.
He had fairly significant home/away splits this year, but they aren’t that significant for his career.
And he just put up 4 WAR in a “down” year, and more than 13 WAR over the last three years; teams pay roughly $8M per 1 WAR in free agency, so even if you expect regression on a different team, he’s still easily worth a lot more than what he’ll be paid.
Yes, Duran is almost certainly on the trade block. There are scenarios in which another team really wants Abreu or Rafaela instead of Duran, but the best Red Sox roster for 2026-2028 has Anthony, Rafaela, and Abreu starting in the outfield. Duran’s speed is wasted in LF, but Rafaela’s superior glove means that Duran shouldn’t be playing CF for the Red Sox.
If they hadn’t signed him to this new deal, they would presumably have exercised the option this week. Would a trade still have voided the contract after that? Not sure it makes a difference in that respect.
Yes, regardless of whether they exercised their option on him, it would have been void in the event of a trade.
Also, I disagree that their best roster is without Duran on it. Duran is by far a superior offensive player to Ceddanne, and as he showed last year, he can be a near-elite defender in CF himself. Not on Ceddanne’s level of course, no one is, but close enough that the offense more than makes up the difference.
While there was a huge offensive gap between the two in 2024, that narrowed to under 20 runs in 2025 and my expectation would be ~10 runs for 2026.
Defense is a bit harder to judge. I agree they were close in 2024, but Rafaela took a large step forward this year while Duran took a step backward. Part of that was the change in positions, of course, which makes it particularly tough to estimate, but Rafaela was *that* good in CF this year. Probably a +15 run advantage going forward.
I won’t argue too hard if you believe Duran’s offensive advantage is larger than that. Really depends on how they age, we KNOW the offensive gap was larger in 2024-2025. But at the same time, a team that has both players will put Rafaela in CF — obviously — and that detracts from Duran’s value.
When a player is more valuable to another team than to his current team, and you make a great case for that, then a trade is appropriate. The alternative I guess would be to trade Rafaela and keep Duran, but the age and contract situation argue for the young/cheap Rafaela over the guy who while still in his prime probably only has a few elite years left.
I would have to believe that the certainty of this contract, minus any escalators, and the under $8m number makes him tradeable, vis a vis his on-field talent, to practically every mlb team.
Moreover, you would have to assume that his name came up at the deadline back in august, and the Sox have an idea of his trade market already, to make this move rather than a desire to save $125k.
My spidey-senses are looking more at a playoff ready team than a rebuilding team.because Duran is 29yo.
I am going to take a guess and say if he’s traded its going to be Seattle or Milwaukee:
Logan Gilbert (28yo and $11.5m), or,
Freddy Peralta (29yo and $8m)
Wishful thinking I know, but a boy can dream
The gap between the two may end up closer than I allowed, but even with Duran having his worst season with the bat (since becoming an everyday guy) and Ceddanne having a breakout season defensively they were essentially tied (Duran was 0.1 WAR ahead). Move Duran over to CF and the positional adjustment alone puts him a full win ahead of Ceddanne, even under those circumstances. If Duran bounces back a bit offensively and/or Ceddanne regresses defensively (or Duran is well above average again in CF), and the gap gets even wider. Ceddanne would have to take a big step forward with the bat, or Duran would have to regress significantly, for them to have equal value in CF.
I fully recognize the team control and age aspects (and those are what probably makes their value similar in a trade), but even after trading an outfielder the Sox have a potential logjam to deal with – Password is more or less major league ready, and Campbell is looking like his best spot is going to be in the OF at this point too. So trading away a guy with more team control and hanging onto a guy who is better but has less control, isn’t as harmful as it otherwise would be.
@Sad.Sox 3
Seattle isn’t in a position to trade their starters. They have zero depth behind them. They lost Gilbert, Kirby and Miller for long stretches of the season last year and it hurt them pretty badly. All three had down years for them and would be underselling. There are two potential replacement starters in the wings, but they should only be getting their feet wet in 26, not carry a playoff hopeful season load. L.Castillo is the only stater that might be moved, mostly for the money. If Seattle is out by the deadline, or next off-season, is when I’d look for some trade from the rotation.
Bob – you could be right, the injuries among the SP corps is a concern for Seattle. They are high on their pitching depth and DiPoto makes some weird deals, not sure if saving the $3.5m means anything to them or not. But, theyre probably gonna lose Suarez and need to make up the offense somewhere, even if its in smaller increments than what Suarez provided
Pretty sure Duran signed the contract..
I don’t really understand the club option for someone who is still arbitration eligible.
So if he had a really good 2025 season the Sox would have gotten him at a discount price of $8M, and if he didn’t have a really good season (which he didn’t) the team can sign him for less than the $8M. Sounds like it was a very good deal for the team no matter what.
He had escalators in his contract that would have pushed the option up if he hit them. If he repeated his 2024 season the option would have gone to 10.5M which is about the same he may have gotten in arbitration.
The main point of the club option was so that the post-arb-filing deal they made with him wouldn’t be a “1-year deal.” The significance of it not being a one-year deal technically is twofold:
1. it allows them to claim that they are sticking by their “file-and-trial” policy for arbitration (i.e. no one-year deals after the arb filing deadline), since it was a “multi-year” contract they agreed to and not just a 2025 salary.
2. It does not count toward arbitration “precedent”. One-year deals agreed to by teams and arb-eligible players are considered by arbitrators as precedent when ruling (and, thus, teams and agents when filing their numbers). Since this was technically a multi-year contract, Duran’s $3,750,000 in 2025 won’t impact their dealings with a similar player in their first arb season in the future.
Those incentives are going to have Duran hungry like the wolf to get to them.
Duran agreed to it….so he must be okay with it.
The Red Sox have a surplus of OF. They aren’t going to be able to move Yoshida’s contract unless they eat payroll or package a good prospect with him. The guy is a DH unless they tell him to work at 1B this off season and see if can play somewhere.
Duran or Abreu are the most likely guys getting moved. It may come down to who is more desirable. Dombrowski may come for Duran since he drafted him for the Red Sox. I just don’t know if there is a match and the Phillies could use him.
Garcia is also on the cusp.
There is no reason the Red Sox can’t position themselves to be a strong contender. They have a lot of money freed up and prospects to get the pieces they need. Maybe they make a run at one of Seattle’s starters, Gore or go sign a guy like King or Cease. I don’t think they have the currency to go get a Skenes but every team’s podcast group, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc… I have seen a few trying to make a case how they can get Skenes for each of those team.
To position as a strong contender, they need to upgrade from Yoshida to Schwarber (or perhaps Alonso) as well as the other moves. Trading Duran merely clears the OF logjam.
Agreed that trading Abreu would be an alternative, but I keep hearing Duran’s name brought up, so the beat reporters seem to think they are leaning that way.
I just don’t see a perfect trade partner for him. Sox have more pitching depth than about every team so they need a very solid 2 or 1b. Who would that be? MIN has a lot of close to ready outfielders so they don’t make sense. The Sox have a 40 man crunch as it is. The reds amd pirates don’t make sense because the starter they can offer isn’t moving the needle.
Seattle has a few ready or near ready SS/2B. Notably M.Arroyo and C.Young.
Sorry, i misunderstood your comment, you meant #2 starter and 1B. Nope, Seattle doesn’t make sense unless L.Castillo rumors get brought up again.
Meant 1 b meaning someone like Crocett. They don’t need a first baseman. Believe they platoon with Romy. Maybe Durran for Skubil. That might work, but for only one year could not be a good fit. Maybe for Gore, maybe for one of Seattles starters
@wvsteve,
Seattle isn’t in a position to trade their starters. They have zero depth behind them. They lost Gilbert, Kirby and Miller for long stretches of the season last year and it hurt them pretty badly. All three had down years for them and would be underselling. There are two potential replacement starters in the wings, but they should only be getting their feet wet in 26, not carry a playoff hopeful season load. L.Castillo is the only stater that might be moved, mostly for the money. If Seattle is out by the deadline, or next off-season, is when I’d look for some trade from the rotation.
Man, I love the kid and his fire. He’s the heart and soul of this imperfect team. But I think that’s pretty much what he is… imperfect.
He gets discombobulated on deep flyballs, has a tendency for hyper-aggressive baserunning and is nothing more than a guess-hitter vs LHP. So frustrating to watch.
But… he’s fast, has pretty decent power and can play CF. He’ll surely be a key part of a trade package that nets the Sox a solid SP. I’ll miss him, but then again, I won’t.
Very tradeable. Make it happen
I, as a Dodger fan, have interest in any of those OFers if we don’t sign Tucker.
Astros would trade Paredes (take 3rd if Bregman doesn’t resign) for Duran. Help both clubs as we have a surplus of infielders and need a LH outfield bat and this would give Boston a solid pull hitting 3B that plays pretty good defense.
Why would Duran agree to this? His team option was worth more, so this is a pay cut. And if the team doesn’t pick up the option, he goes to arbitration which was likely to be similar or more, plus the buyout.
I don’t see how this is anything other than a pay cut for him.
It seems to me based on the needs that the most logical moves are to trade for Greene, sign another starter for the three slot to move Bello to 4 and let the rest compete for the 5th slot and bullpen. Use excess for depth and trades. You drastically improve the rotation and bullpen at the same time.
Phase 2 is to see if the payroll will withstand holding onto Bregman while signing for a premier power bat, or losing Bregman and promoting from within for third and needing to sign at least 2 big bats by creating room through further trades.
That may seem like a lot of moving parts for a team that has become notoriously slow to move and not very daring when it does.
The good news is that the same problems we have had for several years still remain so it shouldn’t be a surprise to management what they need.