Michael King is one of the bigger risk-reward plays in the starting pitching class. He’s arguably a top 10 pitcher in MLB when healthy but is coming off a platform season that was wrecked by a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder. He’s also attached to draft compensation after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Padres.
That hasn’t deterred plenty of teams from expressing interest. King was already known to be a target for the Cubs, Tigers and Yankees, while even the Marlins checked in as a long shot suitor. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Joel Sherman of The New York Post each write that the Mets are involved. Feinsand adds the Orioles, Angels and incumbent Padres as teams on the periphery of the market. Sherman reports that the Red Sox have also shown interest in the 30-year-old righty.
King converted to the rotation late in the 2023 season as a member of the Yankees. He pitched well enough to stick as a starter after being traded to San Diego as the centerpiece of the Juan Soto deal. King finished seventh in NL Cy Young voting in 2024, pitching to a 2.95 ERA while striking out 201 batters over 31 appearances. He’d pitched even better over the first six weeks of the ’25 campaign. King reeled off 10 starts with a 2.59 earned run average and punching out 28% of opponents before the injury.
Durability is the big question. The shoulder issue wasn’t structural but proved a lot more problematic than initially expected. He wound up missing almost three months and showed signs of rust when he returned late in the season. King gave up 12 runs while tallying all of 17 1/3 innings over five starts in the second half. His velocity was fine but he only managed 12 strikeouts while issuing nine free passes.
King appeared on track for a nine-figure contract amidst his hot start. That’s tougher to envision now, as the 2024 campaign remains the only season in which he has reached even 105 innings. That’s largely because of his usage with the Yankees, but he also missed a couple months in 2021 with a finger injury and suffered a season-ending elbow fracture the following year.
MLBTR predicted King to receive a four-year, $80MM contract. It’s also possible he prefers a two- or three-year deal with an opt-out to get back to free agency next winter. King declined the straight one-year qualifying offer, but a multi-year deal with an out clause would give him a little more security than the QO would have provided. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this morning that King is willing to sign for a shorter term than the top free agent arms (e.g. Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suárez). That wouldn’t necessarily rule out a four-year deal, as the best starters are expected to command five or six-year contracts. Dylan Cease already pulled a seven-year guarantee.
The Mets should come away with a mid-rotation or better arm via free agency or trade. They stayed away from the top of the rotation market last winter. That worked out early in the year but collapsed down the stretch. Only the Rockies, Nationals and Angels had a higher second-half ERA from their rotation than the Mets’ 5.31 mark. Nolan McLean looks like a budding frontline starter, but he’s their only pitcher who allowed fewer than 4.20 earned runs per nine after the All-Star Break.
Baltimore, Boston, San Diego and the Angels have all been in the rotation market. The Red Sox should probably focus elsewhere after acquiring Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo in trade. The Angels have landed a pair of starters this offseason as well, but Grayson Rodriguez and Alek Manoah both have significant health questions. They still need a starter and are also in the mix for Zac Gallen. The O’s are involved on Valdez and Suárez; no pitcher seems to be off the table for them. The Padres are unlikely to spend what it’d take to bring King back, though they’ll need multiple rotation adds after also losing Cease to free agency and Yu Darvish to elbow surgery.
I think Cashman needs to bring him back now. However everyone knows he can’t multitask and still worried about Bellinger.
I dunno…I mean Rodon and Cole won’t be ready for opening day, then you have Clarke Schmidt who’s probably going to miss the 2026 season after undergoing TJ surgery. Not sure if committing big money to a pitcher who struggled with nerve damage in his throwing shoulder last season would be a good fit for the Yankees starting rotation this season.
Buyer beware. Nerve damage is not an easy thing to overcome
It is pretty rough.
His stuff looked pretty good upon return. It was his command that seemed to be off. His one inning in the post season also looked good.
He has the highest upside but also injury risk of all the top of the rotation starters in this market.
He is both a candidate for a hurt term high aav and a long term contract. Will be interesting to see which wins out.
Padres passed for a reason. Great when healthy.
Padres would love to have him back. They didn’t pass. It’s just a matter of where his market ends up.
Pads offered the QO which does not sound that they passed.
The good news is that it didn’t effect King circulatory nor structurally.
I think MLBTR’s 4/$80 prediction is on the light side given his talent level. Obv. it’s a gamble. To prove himself healthy, King could take a similar Jordan Montgomery or Jack Flaherty short, opt-out deal.
YBC-
He could but something tells me he is gonna sign a long term deal.
I also believe 4/80 is too low. He could sign a deal like 4/80 with opt outs after the first year or two. I really don’t see a 2 year deal with an opt out.
He was a little shakey after coming back from the nerve issue last year but it’s not like the padres let him ramp back up in the minors. He basically did so in the majors. He pitched one inning in the playoffs and struck out the side. I think he is gonna be the best free agent pitcher in this class. It’s not like Cease didn’t come with some risks.
Teams linked to him is a long list. Yankees, tigers, marlins, padres, O’s, cubs, giants, dbacks have surely checked in, Phillies would likely have interest with Suarez being a FA. Angles have been mentioned. Astros I’m would bet shown interest.
That’s a lot of teams. Some perhaps maybe looking for a bargain but with that many teams someone is gonna pay him a lot of money. I’m gonna say he gets over 100m.
Landing a deal north of 100m with that injury history would be one hellofa an accomplishment for his agent.
He’ll be 31 in May and in order land that kind of deal a team is going to be betting on him getting healthier with age. All at a time when teams are more risk adverse then ever with pitching. Dylan Cease having made 162 starts over the past 5 years while leading the world in K’s went a huge distance him getting his deal. But yeah, every 9 figure starting pitcher contract has plenty of risk.
King’s lone full starter season had him put up a 3.9 fWAR and 4.1 bWAR. Very nice season worthy of his 7th place CY finish but I don’t think it was a good enough season to outweigh all the other aspects of his career and his most recent season.
2025 – missed 66 games due to Shoulder soreness and another 23 games for knee inflammation, pitching 1 inning in playoffs
2022: missed last 67 games and 9 playoff games due to elbow fracture
2021: missed 57 games with a finger injury and playoffs
I wish he would have made 30+ starts in 2025 for his FA sake and the Padres might have won the division for the first time in 20 years. A healthy King in the playoffs able to make a start or more could have changed that outcome as well. So it’s just a pisser all the way around.
Too late , he’s been signed 4 years to the blue jays
That makes TOR’s a 40-man rotation!
Bring him back home, Cash!
What are the odds nobody signs him to a multi year deal and the QO was his top offer?
Very low.
When the Cody Ponces of the world are making 3/30M, I think Michael King will do ok.
Talk about misreading your own market.
@Larry D – How did he misread his own market? Are you saying he should have taken the QO? King for sure will receive a contract offer for more than the $22M QO amount, so I’m not sure how he misread anything.
King will either accept a long term deal (4-5 years) at a lower AAV than expected ($18M to $20M per year), or he’ll accept a 1 year deal with a player option for year 2 and a first year salary of $22M-$25M including the buyout on the year 2 option.
The only issue for the signing team is do you really want to forfeit draft pick compensation for what could end up being a 1 year deal? This leads me to believe that he will end up signing a longer term deal with an opt out after year 3.
I didn’t say he misread his market. I was replying to the OP’s question regarding the possibility that King’s best deal will be the QO. If that ends up being true, “He really misread his market.”
What’s the market for damaged goods?
The Red Sox love these kind players. Just waiting for them to add him to the growing list of pitchers competing for a spot in the rotation.
Do it Cubs. I know you will never spend like the Yankees or Dodgers, but actually like a top 5 revenue team and spend $20 mil a year for this guy. The risk is already built into his projected deal dollars. Sign King, Bregman and a couple bullpen arms with VELO and trade for Degrom and call it an off-season. A rotation of Degrom, Steele, Horton, Taillon and Shota, along with Boyd as a swingman/long reliever is super solid. Of of Happ, PCA and Caissie,an infield of Bregman, Swanson, Horner and Busch. Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya behind the plate and Seiya Suzuki splitting time at DH and RF with Owen Caissie sounds like a deep threat in the postseason to me. Probably lose Ballesteros, Alcantara and Wiggins in the Degrom deal, but 3.more years of Degrom could be a game changer for this club. If he stays healthy, at the very minimum, he is a bonafide ace. Go Cubs Go!!!
You do realize Ricketts still owns the Cubs right?
In Degrom and King you’re getting two guys that have both only reached the 100 IP mark 1 time in the past 5 years.
Can’t imagine Hoyer has that kind of risk appetite.
Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantra seem like good targets for a team in the Cubs position. Better contracts and much more likely to hold up than Degrom or King.
I doubt even the Dodgers would do something like this if they had that many holes to fill.
Boyd as swingman? Two top 100 prospects for deGrom’s contract that is underwater?
4/100m$
I think that is a better guess than $80M/4
Whatever happened to trading for Joe Ryan??????
Latest reporting has him off the table.
The O’s are in on everybody, but never pull the trigger. All talk, no action.
The latest?
Meaning..its dead?
Please Tigers, don’t do this one.
Seems like a good candidate for like 2 years/$50M guaranteed w/ some kind of multi year club vs player and buyout options.
2 years/$40M w/ $10M buyout on 3 years/$90M club option and 2 years/$40M player option that each have additional $5M buyouts on 1 year/$30M mutual option.
He’s a big risk, enter Toronto with a 10 year deal