The Giants checked a few boxes this offseason, adding a pair of back-end starting pitchers and everyday players at second base and in the outfield. Their biggest splash might be in the manager’s office, as they stayed away from the top of the free agent market.
Major League Signings
- RHP Adrian Houser: Two years, $22MM (including buyout of ’28 club option)
- CF Harrison Bader: Two years, $20.5MM
- 2B Luis Arraez: One year, $12MM
- RHP Tyler Mahle: One year, $10MM
- RHP Jason Foley: One year, $2MM (eligible for arbitration through ’28)
- LHP Sam Hentges: One year, $1.4MM (eligible for arbitration through ’27)
- RHP Rowan Wick: One year, $880K (including buyout of ’27 club option)
- RF Will Brennan: One year split contract (eligible for arbitration through ’29)
2026 spending: $44.95MM
Total spending: $68.78MM
Trades and Claims
- Claimed LHP Reiver Sanmartin off waivers from Reds
- Claimed OF Justin Dean off waivers from Dodgers (later lost on waivers to Cubs)
- Traded RHP Mason Black to Royals for minor league RHP Logan Martin
- Acquired OF Joey Wiemer from Marlins for cash (later lost on waivers to Nationals)
- Acquired Rule 5 selection C Daniel Susac from Twins for minor league C Miguel Caraballo
- Traded RHP Kai-Wei Teng to Astros for minor league C Jancel Villarroel
Option Decisions
- Team declined $4MM option on C Tom Murphy in favor of $250K buyout
Notable Minor League Signings
- Michael Fulmer, Eric Haase, Brent Honeywell Jr., Buddy Kennedy, Caleb Kilian, Nick Margevicius, Jared Oliva, Wilkin Ramos, Gregory Santos
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Justin Verlander, Wilmer Flores (still unsigned), Dominic Smith, Joey Lucchesi (non-tender), Andrew Knizner (non-tender), Marco Luciano (lost via waivers), Kai-Wei Teng, Mason Black, Tom Murphy, Wade Meckler (lost via waivers)
Before the offseason got underway, president of baseball operations Buster Posey identified the priority. “Our focus is going to be on pitching, to try to fortify our starting staff. The same goes with the bullpen,” he told Alex Pavlovic and Laura Britt of NBC Sports Bay Area in early October.
Posey had acted decisively in pursuing star players during his first year running baseball operations. He’d signed Willy Adames to a franchise-record contract the previous offseason and made the biggest trade of the 2025 season when he took on the Rafael Devers contract from the Red Sox in June. The Giants were naturally a popular pick to land one of free agency’s top arms — ranging from Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez in the rotation to Edwin Díaz at the back of the bullpen.
That was not to be. Not long after Posey’s comments, high-ranking team personnel began to downplay expectations. General manager Zack Minasian told John Shea of The San Francisco Standard they’d focus more on depth arms. CEO Greg Johnson made similar comments to Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle, noting that they were wary of making extended free agent commitments. None of that contradicted Posey’s identification of the focus, but it pointed to the more quiet offseason that would follow.
Indeed, one could argue the Giants’ biggest move didn’t involve the roster at all. San Francisco fired manager Bob Melvin at the end of the season. That was at least moderately surprising, as the Giants had exercised their 2026 option on Melvin’s services just three months earlier. The team’s 29-36 record in the second half was apparently the impetus for the change, but the Giants played at the same .500 level they had for most of the season after August despite selling multiple pieces (e.g. Mike Yastrzemski, Trevor Rogers, Camilo Doval) at the deadline.
In any case, the front office felt a change was necessary enough that they ate Melvin’s reported $4MM salary. They’d go on to make one of the boldest managerial hires in recent memory. After considering more traditional candidates like Kurt Suzuki, Nick Hundley, and Vance Wilson, the Giants wooed college baseball’s best coach.
They hired Tony Vitello away from the University of Tennessee, paying a premium to do so. Vitello is reportedly making $3.5MM annually on a three-year contract. The Giants also paid a $3MM buyout to the university. They’re committing $10.5MM to the managerial position this year all told, which is probably the most in MLB. Teams don’t publicly disclose managerial salaries, but Dave Roberts’ extension with the Dodgers pays an $8.1MM average annual value that is believed to be the most in the league.
Vitello built what had been a floundering Tennessee program into a national powerhouse during his eight years in Knoxville. It’s nevertheless a virtually unheard of hire for an MLB team. Vitello made the jump directly to major league managing without any previous experience in pro ball.
That has some precedent in other sports but hasn’t really been done in MLB, where college staffers making the move have usually begun their careers as coaches or in player development roles. He’ll have the advice of some experienced voices. The Giants added Ron Washington to the coaching staff while bringing Bruce Bochy back to the organization as a special advisor (joining Dusty Baker in that regard)
Fascinating as the hire is, Vitello will have more constraints as an MLB manager than he did as a college coach. College coaches are also primarily responsible for putting their rosters together via recruiting and the transfer portal. That’s obviously not the case in MLB, where the front office was tasked with addressing the pitching staff and fixing two obvious holes in the lineup.
As the aforementioned comments from Johnson and Minasian suggested, the front office seemingly didn’t have much long-term payroll flexibility. They’d signed three nine-figure contracts (Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Adames) in the previous two offseasons. They took on close to $215MM in future commitments on the Devers deal — including the money saved by attaching Jordan Hicks as a salary offset. They also paid $17MM to division rival Blake Snell in January as a deferred signing bonus from his 2024 free agent deal.
Although the Giants would take aim at a few high-impact trade targets, they limited themselves to the third and fourth tiers in free agency. That began with a two-year, $22MM deal for right-hander Adrian Houser. It’s a hefty price for a pitcher who was playing on a minor league pact as recently as last May. Houser pitched very well in 11 starts for the White Sox but struggled to a near-5.00 ERA over 10 outings following a deadline trade to Tampa Bay. He slots into the back half of the rotation as an innings eating grounder specialist.
The Giants made a similar move with a one-year, $10MM flier for Tyler Mahle. There’s maybe a little more upside with Mahle, who is coming off a 2.18 ERA across 16 starts for the Rangers. That’s driven largely by an elevated strand rate and minimal batting average on balls in play that covered for a mediocre 19.1% strikeout rate.
Mahle missed bats early in his career with the Reds but hasn’t had the same caliber of stuff since then due to injury. He pitched a total of 107 MLB innings from 2023-25. A May ’23 Tommy John surgery was the most significant injury, but he also lost chunks of time in each of the past two seasons to shoulder problems. His average fastball speed has dropped two ticks from a 94 mph high back in 2021. Mahle still has excellent command and enters camp healthy, but he has back-of-the-rotation stuff despite last year’s impressive earned run average.
Signing Houser and Mahle all but ensured the Giants wouldn’t re-sign Justin Verlander, who’d been their only free agent of much note. Verlander pitched well down the stretch, but the Giants evidently preferred the other veteran arms to betting on a player entering his age-43 season. San Francisco also traded away depth arms Mason Black and Kai-Wei Teng in minor deals.
The free agent pickups slot behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. Having one of the 10 best pitchers in MLB anchor the group is an excellent start. Ray shows the ability to pitch at a legitimate #2 level at times but can also battle his command and had a rough second half. Landen Roupp is the in-house favorite to round out the starting five. He’s a quality back-end arm.
It’s not a bad group, though it’s lacking the ceiling behind Webb that’d compete with the upper tier of rotations in MLB. That might need to come from an unexpected step forward from an internal arm. The Giants have some intriguing depth pieces on the 40-man roster. Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, and Carson Seymour are all optionable starters with modest big league experience.
Individually, no one from that group projects as a high-end starter. There’s enough volume the Giants can hope someone takes an unexpected step forward with a velocity jump or new pitch. Birdsong has the best raw stuff but disappointed when given a rotation opportunity a year ago. He simply didn’t throw enough strikes.
Although Birdsong enters camp as a starter, the Giants should probably focus him on a relief role this year. They’re likely to need more than one of the rotation depth pieces in the bullpen — which they did puzzlingly little to address over the offseason. They not only stayed away from the Díaz/Devin Williams price range but also opted not to bring in any middle-tier relievers (e.g. Kyle Finnegan, Kenley Jansen).
Free agent bullpen prices were high. The Giants may have simply thought that playing in that area was bad value. However, it leaves them with one of the thinner bullpens of any team that expects to contend. In addition to the Rogers and Doval trades, they lost breakout closer Randy Rodríguez to Tommy John surgery as they were playing out the string.
San Francisco’s only acquisitions were reclamation projects. They signed Jason Foley and Sam Hentges to cheap one-year deals. Both pitchers are coming off shoulder surgery and headed for season-opening injured list stints. Rowan Wick is essentially a 2027 version of the same idea. San Francisco brought him back from Japan for barely more than the league minimum. He’ll miss the entire season after recently undergoing Tommy John surgery but could be kept around via minimal club option next year if he’s recovering smoothly.
An already thin group has taken a couple more hits in camp. Waiver pickup Reiver Sanmartin tweaked his right hip in an exhibition game for Colombia in the World Baseball Classic. Hard-throwing righty Joel Peguero was diagnosed with a Grade 2 hamstring strain just last night.
Ryan Walker feels like the closer by default despite an up-and-down 2025 season. Righties JT Brubaker and José Buttó can’t be optioned and will make the team. Erik Miller and the out-of-options Matt Gage lead an uninspiring group of left-handers. Minor league signees Gregory Santos and Michael Fulmer have a clear path to middle relief spots. Aside from the general difficulty in predicting relief pitching, there’s not much reason for excitement unless someone like Birdsong or McDonald gets a bullpen job and runs with it.
Can the Giants outhit their pitching concerns? This was a league average lineup a year ago, a disappointing result for one that should be better than that on talent. They entered the offseason with two obvious potential problem areas: second base and right field. Tyler Fitzgerald floundered at the former position, leaving Casey Schmitt to hold the job in the second half. He’s a low-end regular who profiles better as a utilityman. Right field was an even bigger issue, as they got nothing out of the position after the Yastrzemski trade.
San Francisco addressed both positions via free agency. They added Harrison Bader on a two-year, $20.5MM contract in their second-biggest investment of the winter. The front office successfully waited out Bader’s push for a third year to add an impact defender coming off a career-best .277/.347/.449 showing. They’ll expect some regression offensively — Bader dramatically outperformed his batted ball metrics thanks to an inflated .359 BABIP — but he’s an ideal fit for the spacious Oracle Park outfield.
Bader will play every day in center field, pushing Lee to right. Lee is coming off a .266/.327/.407 season that’d be fine even with the higher offensive bar to clear in a corner outfield spot. Despite above-average speed and an excellent arm, Lee occasionally had some trouble tracking balls in center field. Bader will be a notable upgrade, while Lee’s athleticism should remain an asset with the amount of ground to cover in the right-center gap.
They’ll be joined in the outfield by Heliot Ramos, a 2024 All-Star who underwhelmed last season. Ramos had a huge May (.347/.407/.600) but had a sub-.720 OPS in every other month. He batted .248/.316/.358 in the second half. Ramos still topped 20 homers with slightly above-average offensive numbers overall, but left field could be a position to monitor at the deadline if his late-season form carries into 2026. Former Guardian Will Brennan could factor in there as a left-handed complement but seems likelier to begin the season in Triple-A after an offseason split deal.
The Giants’ biggest pursuits came at second base. Bay Area native Nico Hoerner would have been an ideal fit, but the Cubs never had much motivation to trade him. The Giants made a run at landing Brendan Donovan from the Cardinals; he wound up traded to Seattle instead. Talks with the Nationals about CJ Abrams reportedly stalled when Washington balked at a prospect package built around shortstop Josuar Gonzalez.
They ended up turning back to free agency. In a weak middle infield class beyond Bo Bichette, they opted to give Luis Arraez another opportunity at second base. It’s difficult to quibble with the price, as the three-time batting champion settled for one year and $12MM. The risk is that comes with the promise of moving Arraez back to the keystone after two years working mostly as a first baseman in San Diego.
Fans are familiar with Arraez’s skillset. He’s the most difficult player in MLB to strike out and one of a handful of hitters who can reasonably be expected to bat .300. The all-contact approach doesn’t leave much room for walks or any kind of power. Last season’s .292/.327/.392 batting line came out to roughly league average overall, by measure of wRC+.
Arraez’s career numbers are better than that (.317/.363/.413), and he should certainly be an offensive upgrade over Schmitt. They’ll probably need to live with well below-average defense in the process despite expressing hope that working with Washington can turn things around. Arraez doesn’t move especially well and has been a below-average defender from the time he reached the majors.
Schmitt is a much better defensive player and should stick around as a utility piece and potential late-game substitute. Schmitt’s name has been floated in trade rumors, but there probably aren’t many teams that view him as a clear everyday player. If most other clubs also see him as a utility piece, he’s more valuable to the Giants as an Arraez complement than netting a fairly modest trade return. Fitzgerald was a non-factor in the second half and doesn’t have much of a path back to playing time in San Francisco. A change of scenery trade for a low-level prospect could make sense.
Chapman and Adames will play almost every game on the left side of the infield. Devers will divide his work between first base and designated hitter. Top first base prospect Bryce Eldridge is trying to break camp after a brief 2025 debut. He’d play regularly alongside Devers if he’s on the roster. If the Giants have him open the season in the minors, that’d increase the odds of an out-of-options Luis Matos or Jerar Encarnación sticking around.
There’s also a camp battle for the backup catcher job. Patrick Bailey is such a good defender that he’ll remain the primary catcher despite providing very little at the plate. Prospect Jesus Rodriguez is competing with Rule 5 selection Daniel Susac and minor league signee Eric Haase for a bench spot.
The Giants hit most of the obvious needs they had entering the offseason — though the bullpen stands as a curious exception. They did so mostly with moves to raise the floor rather than upside plays, seemingly because of payroll restrictions. Did they do enough to jump the Padres and Diamondbacks as the second-best team in the NL West and at least snag a Wild Card berth?
How would you grade the Giants' offseason?
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C 48% (983)
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B 27% (556)
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D 18% (373)
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F 4% (90)
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A 3% (59)
Total votes: 2,061
Go Giants!
86-76 playoff bound!
they were 81-81 last year, this year they did get some SPs that could do ok, but the bullpen was blown up that is where the trouble is with this team outside of run producing.
86 wins will be a huge challenge
D. Nothing notable, just a plain offseason, some solid additions, but no standout. They needed more to be a legitimate playoff contender.
They contended last year for a playoff spot. No reason to believe they can’t do it again especially since they added some solid but not sexy players. The bullpen is concerning but you never know how that group will play on any team
Buster Posey admitted that his biggest mistake last year was thinking too highly of the team’s internal pitching options. I would argue he repeated the same mistake.
This is not to say that Birdsong is toast or some of the other pitching prospects won’t pan out. But the lack of bullpen moves suggests that the Giants are counting on the success of young arms without hedging against failure by signing more veterans.
Johnson refused to allow long term contracts or the kind of spending necessary to be good enough to be more than the #3 WC. Even that will be exceedingly difficult with this roster.
I still have some faith that Birdsong can figure it out and become a solid 4, maybe ever #3 quality starter this year, and better moving forward. He really just needs to throw strikes consistently to begin and then can work on command going forward. His stuff is real and can miss plenty of bats in zone. Also, giving up on Fitzgerald might be a mistake. Could come back with a solid utility/role position this season and begin to thrive in 27. Would love to see at least 350ish PA this year if not more found for him. I’m more bullish going forward on him than Schmitt when it comes to upside. Also, getting Bader for CF and shifting Lee to RF is huge IMO. Lee hase plenty of arm for RF and the combined speed/defense for coverage in that gap, will vastly improve the outfield. Bader even dropping 30ish pts of OPS will still be crazy valuable overall as an OF group, and Lee playing RF, I think, will also help him in the box and on the bases. I’d hoped for a little more when it came to the SP/RP signings, but still feel this could be an 86-88 win WC team that nobody wants to face when hot. That’s a very rainbows, unicorns, and clam chowder sort of way to be looking at it. But, I’ve got hope with Vitello steering the ship, and dreaming on a few of the players…
Fitzgerald’s got too much swing and miss and I’m not as sold on Birdy as you are. I like McDonald and hope he moves into the regular rotation, but Greg Johnson limited Buster’s attempt to sign a bonafide #2 and that will haunt the Giants this year and next if one of the young arms don’t step up.
I hope too, that Birdsong can figure it out, but I think your first thought, a solid #4, is more likely. I see him behind Roupp in their development.
I think the ship has sailed on Fitzgerald, and he’s destined for MiL depth. He’s got terrible plate discipline, hasn’t hit except for the 1st half on the ’24 season, and isn’t that good a defender. His one good weapon is his speed. To top it off, he’s not having a good spring.
I agree about the OF. Lee won’t turn 28 until August, was basically a rookie last season, still learning the opposition pitchers, parks, etc. I see him improving if he can stay healthy.
You guys….Just let me dream. Yeah, you and Pete are correct on Fitz, although I felt he could hold down 2B. I’m just hoping he’s a late blooming finding some awareness of the zone/what pitchers are doing to him(letting him chase) type. I am fingers crossed for a progress from Birdsong of more strikes this year, clear rotation value, even more strikes in 27 fringe 3/4, then 28 he’s a strike thrower who has 18 GS of command. Easy QS, 6 each of shy of that and a little more shy than that. Something resembling 4, 3.7, 3.3ish ERA progression with plenty of K and GB%. See the Hayden hopes as much more likely than the Fitz hopes. Really love that OF fix, anything above a .250/.330/.400 type line for Bader will just be gravy. Right on with Lee, think .300BA isn’t out of the question, except more SLG than Arraez brings with that mark. Crossing all fingers and toes while also dreaming of Bryce’s Bay Balls.
I think he did what he could do to get some SPs but their bullpen….ouch! they will struggle
Data: The bullpen is a definitely a concern. I think the biggest question is Walker. Will he cough up games at last years pace or shut things down like 2024. I think he’ll be ok but nobody knows. Also not sure who’ll be the setup man yet. On the offensive side I agree with some of you that Fitzgerald is no more than AAA depth. In his limited ST chances he’s looked as lost as 2025. Early ST still but Matos has looked good and I believe he’ll make Opening Day. I see Koss and Schmitt doing the same along with Susac as backup C. I think the remaining OF spot is a tough call. I hope if Gilbert makes it, it’s not because of the Vitello connection. McCray, Oliva and Bericoto have looked good so far. With 2-1/2 weeks left in ST though things can change a lot.
Fitzgerald is hanging on by a thread of his multipositional role, I see him being DFA material when they find someone similar.
Gilbert needs AAA but has a heart of an all-star.
Bullpen there is no stand out as of yet – late innings will be frustrating for fans and starters seeing their potential wins turn to losses
I am hoping Tidwell can produce better than he has showed thus far
Hard to see how this’ll be a better team than the one that got 81 wins last year.
The Giants, D’Backs and Padres all have a tough row to hoe in the NLW. They aren’t going to contend for the division and will have to compete with better teams in the other divisions for the wildcards.
Get some glasses and tune in to a few ST games. They are killing it right now.
So you base your full season projections based on spring training? That’s really funny. Like seriously hilarious. Good joke my man
Not saying anything about a full season projection, those are for fools.
Why not just let it play out, rather than trying to guess the future ?
Seriously hilarious = Jumbo shrimp.
Projections are for fools and WAGs are for smart people?
A thought that explains more than was intended.
Maybe, a bit harsh on that. Just get tired of all the cloudy crystal ball folks and the doom & gloom. Projection in baseball seems silly to me, as anything can happen. Really not familiar with what a WAG is ?
Im a stress about it if and when it plays out type of guy. The analytical types love a projection though. Surprises aren’t their thing. Fair enough.
fop, Maybe I’m one of a kind, doubt it though, but I consider myself somewhat of an analytical type, and I have zero use for projections.
It begins with “wild.”
This is interesting. Projections are the completely natural product of analytics. In fact, projections are the entire purpose of analytics.
No help… ?
Wild Animal Games
Wild A** Grampa
Wild Alligator Garden
I give up.
Fopp, Stress does not exist.
It’s just a made up term from alcohol and drug companies to move excess product..
“…projections are the entire purpose of analytics.”
I agree that those projections are useful in which players teams target to sign, or which players fans want their team to sign. But, if they were accurate no team would make a bad signing.
Plus, it’s the nature of baseball that makes projections of future performance often inaccurate. In ’24 KC beat the projections of ZIPS by 10 wins, and PECOTA by 15.
And, what I meant was, I’ll ignore what a projection predicts for a specific player, because there are too many variables. They almost never predict a breakout season by a player.
They got me then !
JM
“But, if they were accurate no team would make a bad signing.”
This is some terrible logic/total non-understanding of projections
And ends with “guess.”
This one sure didn’t seem too difficult.
Statistics are all about using data describing the past to project the future. This is their purpose. These statistical models are “accurate” insofar as they predict events that can be mathematically represented as probabilities, not certainties. On either side of any statistical mean is better and worse, lower and higher, less and more. But statistically speaking, right around the mean is where the most likely outcomes are found, and the further you go to either side of the mean, the outcomes become less likely. So you can choose to ignore projections, but you are choosing to replace them with pure guesswork.
My point remains that I trust analysis that tells me how good players are or aren’t. But I don’t trust analysis that tells me a certain team will probably not make the PS. Or that a certain player will have an OPS of around some number. Projections are educated guesses, but they’re still guesses.
While taken generally, they maybe more correct than incorrect on average. But as history shows, they will absolutely be incorrect about some. Which is which is unknowable. So you either believe all projections or believe none, and I choose to believe none.
Wives and Girlfriends?
It people are using projections you see on Fangraphs that have 20% margins of error, then that is silly.
Stress is a very useful engineering term.
In psychology there is both eustress (beneficial) and distress (not beneficial).
Biological stress is the body’s physical and psychological response to perceived threats or demands, triggering the fight-or-flight response via the nervous and endocrine systems. Hormones released in those responses like cortisol and adrenaline increase heart rate, blood pressure, and energy, affecting nearly all bodily systems. Chronic exposure can cause significant health issues.
If you are feeling too much distress, take up yoga or tai chi, learn to meditate, or take up a meditative hobby. Or use non-THC cannabis products like CBD.
The entire purpose of analytics is to measure past performance more accurately so that teams can instruct players on how to improve their future performance.
Very few of the metrics used are great predictive measures. The closest is SIERA with about a 8% margin of error or MOE (Root Mean Square Error [RMSE] of roughly 0.92) on predictions for individual players.
For team wins/losses the best projections last season had a 17% MOE league wide. Most were 20% MOE or over. Not a useful measure or worth looking at for more than entertainment. Too much happens during a typical season that changes the outcomes including trades, injuries, and occasionally unexpected player increases .
Ok, now that I know, I can answer your question.
No.
“WAGs” and season projections are basically the same thing.
Statistical projections are not guesses, they are predictions of the most likely future results based on data collected from past results. This is not an “all or nothing” belief system. It’s odd indeed to be having this debate in a baseball forum, a sport so saturated with statistics and where they argued ad nauseam.
Blue, that is not true. Statistics are all about measuring PAST performance as accurately as possible, not projecting future performance. The better data they can get, the better the team’s chance of helping players IMPROVE future performance.
None of them are good predictive measures. The best is SIERA at a 8% margin of error for individual players. That means that if a pitcher’s SIERA was 3.02 this season that next year his ERA will be between 2.77 and 3.26 using SIERA.
None of the projections systems for wins/losses are worth anything more than entertainment value. At 17-22% even the margins of error for even the best are all far too high. Using the best projections from last season, a team projected to get 82 wins could end up as low as 68 and as high as 95 wins. Again, not a useful tool.
Jean,
For teams as a whole, the single best predictive stat for offense is OPS. Not OPS+ or wRC+, plain old OPS. It has an MOE of between 8 and 10% for a team as a whole.
For individual players the best predictive stat for offense is wOBA with an MOE of 9 to 11%. Utilizing 2024 stats that means a player with a league average wOBA of .310 in 2024 had a wOBA of between .276 and .344 in 2025.
Every single metric is used for predictive purposes, in one way or another. When a team signs a free agent, they are without question deeply examining that player’s measured past performance, as they have no other basis on which to predict his future performance. Every lineup, every pitching matchup, every pitch selection, every outfield and infield defensive position, is based on data collected about the past being used to predict the future. So it is pointless to argue about how “great” these predictions work, since this word is meaningless in the context of statistics. It should be more than enough to know that the teams are collecting and analyzing this data more than ever, and it influences (if not dictates) every, single aspect of the game now.
Preseason win predictions are only what they are, statistical exercises based on what is known about the rosters at one point in time. They can’t be based on unpredictable future events, such as injuries and trades. We can only know they will happen, but not who, how or when. So a snapshot in time is good for more than just a little entertainment value.
Skip, sorry but you really are quite wrong. The teams would also strenuously disagree. They are investing millions in building these statistical models. The purpose of building and refining a statistical model is to use the past for predicting the future, and the more you know about the past the better you can predict. This is the deterministic approach to baseball that has taken over the sport. (I don’t like it, but I know it’s true just the same.) But I feel I’ve addressed this question already, so I won’t repeat my answer here.
JM
“My point remains that I trust analysis that tells me how good players are or aren’t. But I don’t trust analysis that tells me …that a certain player will have an OPS of around some number.”
What…what do you think the difference is?
“While taken generally, they maybe more correct than incorrect on average. But as history shows, they will absolutely be incorrect about some. Which is which is unknowable. So you either believe all projections or believe none, and I choose to believe none.”
I can project the outcome of a number of coin flips. Say 10.
The median projection would be 5 heads.
If I then flip 10 coins and get 7 heads, do you think that the projection is useless? Or that you shouldn’t believe it?
The difference is one is general, and the other specific. One tells us the level of production a team has gotten from a guy in the past. It gives an idea of what to hope for, knowing that there can be substantial variation, in either direction.
The other tells us what to expect, not in a general way, but what BA, OBP, OPS, how many HRs, etc. or how many wins a team will have.
Everyone knows that a guy can do better or worse than his career norms, and all a fan do is hope and watch the way it plays out. But projections are telling us how a guy is going to perform. Projections are useless, because they can’t predict factors like injuries that will greatly impact production.
JM
“It gives an idea of what to hope for, knowing that there can be substantial variation, in either direction.”
This is what projections do.
As basically always, people arguing against projections, WAR, whatever, don’t have the slightest idea what they are arguing against.
“This is what projections do.”
Yes. But they’re still just as worthless as the hope that fans have for certain players/teams. No fan, or projection, can predict the factors that will sabotage the hopes/projections, or predict a breakout or outlier season.
Hope, based on past performance, is not prediction. Projection is. Prediction is fun, but not really useful.
I’m not in the least arguing against WAR. A player’s WAR based on past performance, is an excellent tool. But, a projection telling me what a player’s WAR will be in the coming season, is not the same thing.
JM
What on earth are you talking about?
Let’s look at what you’ve said so far
“I agree that those projections are useful in which players teams target to sign,”
“Projections are useless”
So, projections are both useful and useless?
“if they were accurate no team would make a bad signing.
While taken generally, they maybe more correct than incorrect on average”
And projections are both accurate and inaccurate.
“While taken generally, they maybe more correct than incorrect on average
So you either believe all projections or believe none, and I choose to believe none.”
Projections are correct more than they are incorrect, but you choose not to believe them.
When I said projections are useful in which players teams target to sign, I should have used past performance instead of projections. Yes it’s still a projection, but one of general performance, not a predictive projection of specific numbers. The predictive projections of specific numbers like HRs, team wins, etc. are what’s useless.
What’s the point of believing in projections when it’s guaranteed some will be wrong? If there was a way to know which projections were correct, and which weren’t then they’d be useful, and I would believe them.
JM
“When I said projections are useful in which players teams target to sign, I should have used past performance instead of projections. Yes it’s still a projection, but one of general performance, not a predictive projection of specific numbers. The predictive projections of specific numbers like HRs, team wins, etc. are what’s useless.”
We are going in circles. Because you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Only people who don’t understand projections think they project specific numbers. They don’t.
“What’s the point of believing in projections when it’s guaranteed some will be wrong?”
A projection of 25 home runs or 85 wins is EXACTLY the same as a projection of 5 heads in 10 coin flips.
Projecting 5 heads in 10 coin flips IS NOT saying that there will be exactly 5 heads in 10 coin flips.
Do you understand that?
After being in this business since 1983 when my minor league career ended I can tell you with absolute certainty that I am correct.
SF
“I am correct’.
About what?
You are a terrible debater. Your posts are full of non-factual, opinionated, attacks like, you don’t know what you’re talking about, what on earth are you talking about?, and you don’t understand such and such. None of that moves your opinion forward.
Let me ask you one question. If you’re debating someone about how good a particular young player is. Someone in his 2nd or 3rd year on whom the jury is still out. Are you going to use the stats of past performance, and what tools he has? Or are you going to cite some projection predicting what he’ll do in the future to bolster your opinion?
JM
“Your posts are full of non-factual, opinionated, attacks like, you don’t know what you’re talking about”
It’s a fact, though. You don’t know what you’re talking about
“Let me ask you one question”
“You are a terrible debater”
You are. I asked you a bunch of questions. And you didn’t answer. Why would I answer yours?
Seems clear their major objective was to jettison players of little value which they had plenty of. With so many limited term contracts it seems this is a rebuilding year with many players not returning after this year. They’ll be evaluating the younger talent they have and I look for them to make a big splash next year with more roster spaces and money to work with. They’re not hurting for money so exceeding the luxury tax to build with is probable.
On Buster’s 3 championship teams the Giants were never the favorites, however Sabean continually made adjustments to the roster throughout the year, especially at the trade deadline. I trust that Buster will adapt that philosophy to his own style and improve the team when and where he sees fit always scanning the horizon to see who is potentially available.
I have been critical of the Giants bullpen (and pitching staff in general) but I realize that Buster knows the staff will need improvement. He’s just waiting for the cream to rise and he’ll make adjustments from there.
Giants are going to need about a 6 game win improvement in those adjustments to give them a chance to make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs as a WC they really don’t have the type of pitching to take them deep. They really only have one TOR starter and it typically takes at least two to go deep in the playoffs. Look at those 2012 and 2014 teams with Cain and Bumgarner at the top and Vogelsong, Peavy, Lincecum, Hudson, and Zito in 2012 behind them. Right now they don’t have the shut down bullpen it takes either.
I think that the Giants are another year and another TOR starter from the years of old.
C.
Giants lost a whole lot of meh and added a whole bunch of meh and have some meh returning from injuries.
The result? Meh. 80.5-81.5 wins O/U. Third place in the West.
I guess that’s good enough to sell garlic fries.
The median consensus is .500. Fangraphs’ ZIP model has them at 84-78. 37,5% playoffs odds.
I’ll take 37.5% !
I like Zips.
The Fangraphs ZIPS projection by Dan Szymborski historically has a 17% margin of error. Last season it was off by an average of 9.366 wins. I will let you do the math on what their 84 win projection actually means. The Fangraphs playoff odds margins of error are so off base the projections are not even worth mentioning.
The consensus opening day O/U betting line has a 3% margin of error. Right now they have the Giants at 80.5 wins. It has fallen from 81.5 wins just prior to the opening of spring training. We will see where it is on opening day.
Which do you think you should take to the bank?
There’s a reason Bader is with his seventh team in ten seasons
But he WILL help the Giants in multiple ways even if he doesn’t replicate last years offense.
They made a misstep by not resigning free agent Trevor Rogers in order to bolster their iffy bullpen
Tyler Rogers. Trevor Rogers has never played for the Giants.
I stand corrected….thank you
The bullpen is still a big question mark. The rotation is also a bit iffy at the backend as counting on Mahle and Houser to pickup from last year is probably unlikely.
The lineup is interesting and the right side defense might be terrible
The Giants were 7-19 against the Dodgers and Padres combined last year. And these were their moves to improve the team? The only solid move was Bader. Come on, guys…
The head to head against LA and SD isn’t a good indicator. Last season they had winning records against the Braves, Cubs, Orioles, Red Sox, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Mariners, and Rangers.
They play the teams in their division more though correct?
Yes, but that’s beside the point that head to head records against a couple of specific teams isn’t very insightful. And LA and SD aren’t the only teams in the division. They were 17-9 vs, AZ and COL.
3-10 against the Padres was horrible. And if my slightly waning memory recalls, they weren’t close games either. Dodgers was kind of expected but one of my best memories was beating them to move into 1st place on orange friday. Very short lived memory as they faded immediately after that.
I gave them a C they at least got Bader. A lot of the young prospects have to pan out, and that’s asking them all to beat expectations. That’s going to be tough, but good luck getting a Wild Card spot!
A prayer, they don’t have one. Next! 🤣
Devers quit yet?
Yes.
He quit wearing those goofy Red Sox.
Nah mate. Turned up looking fit and ready to shine at 1B. Team guy all the way at the Giants. So good.
Starting depth is better, bullpen is soso currently, outfield defense will be better and overall improved even if Bader regresses offensively. Right side infield defense looks terrible and could cause troubles with Arraze and Devers unless they improve defensively.
I’m more concerned about Arraez than I am Devers. I know they’re based on a small sample, but Devers had 2 DRS, and a -1 OAA at 1B. That’s not terrible, and considering he’d never played 1B in his career until last season, it’s encouraging that he just might be fine defensively there.
Battling for 81/81 should be fun.
The NL West might be baseball’s worst division this season. It could have four sub-.500 teams.
Probably not the best way figure it. Division will have the best team in baseball and one of the worst and three around break-even teams. But it will likely be one of the most non-competitive that’s for certain.
Yeah but non competitive was pretty certain this time last year as well. Turned out the Padres pushed you for the majority of the season. Bit of misfortune at your end and well timed lightning at the other could see a race.
Checked the Wayback Machine and found the Padres were projected for 87 wins by PECOTA at the start of last season, and the Dodgers for 104. The actual for 2025 was 90 wins for the Padres and 93 for the Dodgers. So the Padres slightly overperformed this preseason projection and the Dodgers significantly underperformed theirs.
The current PECOTA for the Dodgers is once again 104 wins, and for the Padres, 81. Could the Padres close this 23-win gap? Yes, possibly. Likely? No — especially given that the gap is even larger than it was last year.
Yeah righto. Sounds like a totally no fun way to look at it. I’m rolling with the hope that the universe works in mysterious ways and creates a race into the last few weeks.
So the projections were correct for final standings, but were off by a total of 14 wins. In other more competitive divisions that could mean being way off for the final standings.
You completely misunderstand the concept of “correct.”
Okay, so I used the wrong word. I think you know what I meant. So you’re going to focus on semantics merely to be to make negative comment? Why be such a noodge?
On those two teams PECOTA was off by an average of 7 wins. Overall by 9-10 wins on average. Just so you know, PECOTA was at 103.5 on the Dodgers and 86.5 on the Padres on opening day. Still the same total number off.
AL Central has to be the worst. AL East the best.
NL Central looks very interesting.
AL West and NL West are pretty similar. Both could be weak.
The sun could fade to black and we could all die on opening day too. Neither the NL West having 4 teams under .500 nor the sun dying are at all likely happen in 2026.
Looking at last year NL West was tied for least wins total. That was entirely due to the Rockies though.
In 2024 the AL Central had 4 teams with winning records and only 3 more wins than the lowest division because of the White Sox. Its amazing what one really bad team does to drag down the averages.
I think AL Central was the division tied with NL West for least wins last year.
This team looks at this point looks to be slightly better than last years for the most part. SP, 1B and 2B look more solid. Outfield defense should be better. The two big questions for me are the bullpen and Eldridge. Bullpen looks anything but solid at this point but we all know how volatile RP’s can be for better or worse and they are usually readily available on the trade market if need arises. Whether Eldridge becomes the guy they hope he can be will be the difference between an average lineup and a dominant one. I could see a mid 80’s win total but as we know anything can happen.
I give them a C-. They shored up the areas that needed some work done and didn’t get worse as the subtractions aren’t super impactful, but they didn’t really do much to push themselves back into contention. Dodgers are not leaving anytime soon, and the Padres still have 2nd place on lock I think. It’s basically a race between SF and AZ for third place and then they have to compete with a bunch of others for WC2/WC3. I just don’t see them getting over the hump right now. A lot has to go right.
Folks pointing at this year’s very good spring training record. Same as last year with very good regular season start….but then crummy rest of the season. As a fan since ‘62 here in NJ, hope this year is different..
Did just enough to finish .500 again. But hey, at least they own the Curran Theatre
The internet experts aren’t impressed ! Oh no !
New dawn. Good. Can’t wait for it to start.
What I find interesting is the selective aspect in the use of past performance in analysis. It seems a lot of people base their opinions on the fact that the Giants were a .500 team last season, and then factor in the changes for no, or little, improvement.
That seems reasonable, but then there’s a departure from that method for other teams. Last season the Braves were 10 games under .500, made some improvements, but are seen as a possible 90 win team in ’26. Did the changes they made really account for an additional 14 wins?
AZ was 2 games under .500, lost significant pieces, which they haven’t entirely replaced, and yet are seen as competing for 2nd in the division. I saw them described as playing beneath their potential in ’25, and should reverse that in ’26. Yet, the Giants are considered to be the .500 team that did not play below their potential in ’25.
JM
“What I find interesting is the selective aspect in the use of past performance in analysis. ”
You don’t understand analysis
“It seems a lot of people base their opinions on the fact that the Giants were a .500 team last season”
Neither do these people
No real analysis considers how many games they won last year
You missed my point completely. I was talking about the fans here that look at last season’s record to inform their opinions about how they’ll fare in ’26. All you have to do is see how often the Giants’ .500 record in ’25 is cited over and over again in these comments.
Just for giggles, the preseason 2025 projection for the Giants was 78 wins. They ended the season with 81, and this with the midseason addition of Devers. The D’backs were projected for 88 and won 80 actual.
And last season’s projection for the Braves was 93.5 wins, and they finished with 76.
Because of the many injuries that had not yet occurred at the beginning of the season and could not then be predicted.
Which is why projections are useless for predicting outcomes.
THIS
I think we have a chance for the wild card and that we’ve improved offensively and defensively.
It’s just that our pitching is weaker than last year and it’s unlikely we’d make it far into the playoffs without a couple of major acquisitions at the trade deadline and a couple of our young arms doing well on top of it.
With the prospects we’d have to give up for it and likely the additions being short term, it just seems like it would’ve been worth it to improve pitching with free agents in the offseason.
What I really wish we would’ve done is not sign Houser or Mahle for that kind of money and spent it on one solid SP and let the young guys compete for the 5th spot.
I’m not sure the pitching is weaker. Though I’m not sure it isn’t either. Losing Rogers was the big loss for the pen, but I like Houser and Mahle as replacements for Verlander. They are gambles in that they need to live up to what they’re capable of. Which I think comes down to them staying healthy. The good thing is with 2 guys like that, in similar situations, the Giants have doubled their odds. If one of the 2 stays healthy and produces, I’ll be happy.
I hope you’re right with those two.
If we had Tyler Rodgers and Randy Rodriquez with us still, I’d feel a whole lot better.
It just feels like one too many holes in our pitching staff to be truly competitive. There is still a lot to be excited about though.. Eldridge, a full year of Devers, Bader will be fun to watch, and I can see a couple of our young pitchers stepping up..McDonald continues to look good, Tidwell, and still have faith in Birdsong.
Yeah, having Rogers and Rodriquez would be ideal. But there’s nothing that can be done as far as Rodriquez goes. We’ll have just have to wait until next year. And I understand not matching that offer to Rogers, 3/37 is a lot for a set up guy.
They don’t have a lot of proven pitchers, but they do have a lot of unproven ones. And there’s only way for a guy to be considered proven, and that’s to play. The pen is not going to be great, but I’m optimistic that, out of all the quantity, a few guys produce, and the pen isn’t terrible. I’ll take league average.