The Mariners have become a playoff contender in recent years thanks in large part to their pitching. Between Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo, the club has a plethora of effective homegrown starters. With Luis Castillo also in the mix, Seattle’s rotation is both a top-10 unit in the league and well-suited to take advantage of the pitching-friendly dimensions of T-Mobile Park.
Understandably, the club is exploring ways to keep that group intact, with Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reporting that the team explored extensions with Gilbert and Woo over the offseason. Kramer adds that the talks with Gilbert did not progress to the point where the two parties were close to an agreement. Talks with Woo’s representatives were also preliminary.
Gilbert has been a staple of the rotation since debuting in 2021. In 840 2/3 innings, he owns a 3.59 ERA, a 26.2% strikeout rate, and a 5.3% walk rate. He has always done well at limiting walks, and the strikeouts have improved year over year since 2022. He is also quite durable, with 2025 being the first time he went on the injured list. After missing seven weeks with a right elbow flexor strain, Gilbert returned in mid-June and was his usual self for the rest of the season. He ultimately made 25 starts with a 3.44 ERA and a career-high 32.3% strikeout rate.
Woo, 26, made his debut in 2023 and has a 3.21 ERA through 70 career starts. Like Gilbert, Woo gets strikeouts at an above average rate and excels at limiting free passes. He has made a few trips to the IL, including two separate stints in 2024 which limited him to 22 starts. He made 30 starts for the first time in 2025. His 21 quality starts in 2025 tied Hunter Brown and Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal for fourth place in the majors. Although he missed the last two weeks of the regular season with pectoral inflammation, he returned as a reliever in the ALCS and is fully healthy heading into his first start of 2026.
Both Gilbert and Woo are immensely valuable to the Mariners, so it makes sense for the team to explore extensions while they have multiple seasons of club control remaining. Gilbert has the longer track record, with over four years of effective pitching on his resume. Being closer to free agency, an extension for Gilbert would also be more costly. Looking around the league, Garrett Crochet was the most recent starter with four to five years of service to be extended. He got six years and $170MM from the Red Sox in March 2025. Crochet’s case was unique, as he had been a reliever until 2024 and only had one (very effective) season as a starter before signing the extension.
Gilbert does not strike out as many hitters as Crochet and profiles as a No. 2 starter rather than a true ace. The recent Pablo Lopez and Mitch Keller contracts may be closer comparisons based on talent level and age at the time of signing. Lopez was worth 8.5 fWAR over 84 starts from 2019-22. He got a four-year, $73.5MM deal from the Twins in April 2023, which covered his age-28 through 31 seasons and bought out three free agent years. Meanwhile, Keller was worth a combined 6.2 fWAR in 91 appearances (89 starts) for the Pirates from 2020-23. His February 2024 extension gave him $71.6MM in new money over four years (age-29 through 32), including three free agent years.
Gilbert’s talent level puts him closer to Lopez and Keller than Crochet. Given his comparable age and superior talent, Gilbert might be worth $85-90MM over a four-year term. It wouldn’t be out of character for the Mariners to pay that amount. Castillo’s extension in 2022 gave him a similar average annual value over his age-30 to 34 seasons, and he had a comparable track record at the time to Gilbert’s now.
If the Mariners would prefer to spread money around to different parts of the roster, then Woo might be the more logical long-term fit. He is currently 26 years old and under club control through 2029. For players with two to three years of service time, Cristian Javier and Tanner Bibee are the best points of comparison. Prior to his February 2023 extension, Javier was worth a combined 4.0 fWAR over 66 appearances, roughly half of which were starts. He earned a $64MM guarantee over five years (two would-be free agent years) for an AAV of $12.8MM.
More recently, Bibee got around $47.2MM on a four-year extension in March 2025, which covered at least one free agent year. That came following a 2023-24 stretch in which Bibee accumulated 6.3 fWAR over 56 starts. Being a full-time starter, Woo is a closer match with Bibee’s contract than Javier’s. Bibee had exactly two years of service when he signed his deal, whereas Woo has closer to three years of service. The two are comparable in terms of overall performance, with Woo having an edge on a rate basis and Bibee covering slightly more innings. Based on those circumstances, Woo might garner $55MM over a four-year term ($13.75MM AAV).
Kramer framed both sets of extension talks as preliminary, so Mariners fans should take the news with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, these comparisons offer insight into how much it would cost for the club to retain their starters throughout their window of contention. Per RosterResource, the club has four guaranteed salaries on their books in 2027. Castillo ($24.15MM), Julio Rodriguez ($20.19MM), Josh Naylor ($17.3MM), and Cal Raleigh ($13.67MM). That’s a total of $75.31MM in guaranteed money. After factoring in the arbitration class, that should leave enough room for the club to extend at least one of its homegrown starters, and perhaps more.
Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images
Sign Woo long term
I’m hopeful we will be able to keep woo and Gilbert long term they also seem to like being in Seattle
Kirby is as good as gone to the east coast once his time is up but that’s why we have Kade Anderson coming
Yup. Kade replaces Kirby. Extend Woo. Extend Miller after unloading the Castillo deal to fill holes elsewhere on the roster.
Castillo is on a decent contract and is good, “unloading” isn’t going to happen. He’s worth more to Seattle than other teams.
You want to give out two extensions similar to Castillo but you also want to trade Castillo away?
The back end of deals are expected to be a bit underwater to make up for being somewhat under paying during the peak years.
Castillo outperformed the deal’s salary early on but is not expected to do so going forward. Therefore the Castillo deal could both be viewed as a good signing by SEA and a contract they would want to get out of now.
Castillo’s contract has slight surplus value. He also didn’t miss a start last season. He isn’t going anywhere. He will be needed if the Mariners make the postseason.
yeah they shouldn’t be looking to get of the contract yet, he’s a solid rotation piece on a playoff team and they don’t have a lot of depth in the rotation.
But with the steady velo drop, I was just using it as example of a contract that is both a good signing and one that a team might want to get of toward the end. He’s probably break even this year and they need him so I don’t think they are looking to move him.
Wait where’s Sloan?
Sloan is still very far away and we could either trade him if we extend miller or Sloan could be miller/castillo replacement
I don’t think anything is definitive yet, but Miller is the number five starter and has already had elbow issues. If Seattle moves on from one of their current starters, he would seemingly be the most likely to go first.
If Seattle is convinced they can churn out starters, they may not be inclined to hand out any extensions. That said, Gilbert is a core player. It’s really hard to see him leaving.
It will be interesting to see if Woo can repeat his 2025 performance. I don’t know if that would make him more likely, or less likely, to be extended, but I’m more worried about getting to the World Series right now than I am extensions.
Ryan Sloan will be superior to Anderson long term.
These comps are extremely conservative. While pitchers have been willing to sign team friendly deals in recent years (which is sensible, given the pyrrhic nature of pitching), those that bet on themselves and reach free agency healthy can point to $30MM+ AAVs. Dylan Cease is demonstrably worse than Gilbert, while Woo can convincingly argue he’s the best SP not named Skubal, Crochet, or Skenes.
Did some quick futzing around. A Gilbert extension should clock in around the years and overall value of Aaron Nola’s free agent deal (less money early, more later). I think that’s a concept both sides should already find acceptable.
Woo requires the market to reset. It doesn’t hurt to point to cheap comps like Cris Sanchez and try to extend him on the cheap, but a fair deal looks more like 9 years and $300MM. If Woo isn’t feeling friendly, the M’s should wait for Skubal (or a Skenes trade/extension) and the next CBA to clarify the market for pitchers of this ilk. As it stands, Woo is looking at Skubal-like arb salaries. The comp extensions are less than what he stands to earn going year to year.
Nola seems a fair comp for Gilbert, but isn’t Woo’s body of work pretty light to be comping to Skubal?
A career WAR of 7 seems a fair distance away from multiple Cy Youngs on the resume. Woo’s career seems to be right where Skubal’s was before the back to back Cy Young seasons. I don’t think anyone was predicting 30 million arb price for Skubal back then. I’m not an expert on the arbitration process, but doesn’t it weigh things like Cy Youngs pretty heavily?
I agree that Bibee is the wrong comp for Woo, but I would think one has to put up at least one season above 4 WAR before sniffing 30 million in arbitration, right?
Yamamoto is better than Woo.
He might be. It’s debatable. Ditto 6 or 10 other guys.
Woo is pretty amazing!
2024 – .211/.237/.337
2025 – .200/.243/.353
He’s probably the M’s biggest feather in their cap. A guy who had a 6.36 era and 1.73 whip in college and only needing 115 innings of work in the minors before doing the above to big league hitters.
With three more years of control after 2026, it won’t take anything near 300m to get him signed long-term.
He and Yamamoto have been pretty darn comparable the past two years:
sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/R8J6K
$85 – $90MM? That may be a true talent level comp, but there is no way on earth Gilbert takes anything less than 5 years, 130ŵ2M. Look, Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet (or maybe 2nd to Skenes?) and his 32M arb award means he will be paid at least 40M per season on his next deal. I’m certainly not suggesting that Gilbert is comparable, but I do think his durability and performance makes a salary in the range of 25M to 30M per season viable.
is MLBTR gaslighting us by always linking Julio Rodriguez to the wrong BR player with the same name
it switches two months into the season, just like the real Julio.
Bravo gentlemen, lol
If you’re Seattle and you offer Gilbert an extension and he turns it down, do you let him walk or do you trade him?
Contenders don’t, or at least shouldn’t, trade away their best players. The list of teams who trade their best players and continue to compete is very short, depending on your definition of compete
What if the Phillies or the Dodgers hit them up at the TDL with elite prospect packages for the last 1.5 years of Gilbert… Idk I think Seattle makes the deal if there is top tier talent on the table.
It’s hard to stay competitive when you let your best players walk in free agency and you don’t get anything more than a single draft pick. Arozerena, Crawford, Gilbert, Donovan are hitting the market this year and next year. Gonna be interested to see how they play this.
Seattle is built to win now and doesn’t have all that much depth in the rotation. Trading Gilbert doesn’t make sense.
They are going to try and win a WS and that keeps Gilbert on the team into FA.
With Anderson and Sloan projected to be top of the rotation arms, Mariners should be in no hurry to overpay anybody. If Woo, Gilbert, Kirby want to stay in Seattle on a team-friendly extension, that would be great for Seattle but it would have to be low money, no where near Nola.
4/90M for Gilbert
5/90M for Kirby
6/100M for Woo
If they don’t sign, draft pitchers in ’26
Chris Levonas out of Wake Forest would be a good pick.
He’d be ready by ’29
Could trade Woo and Miller prior to ’29 and still have a good rotation.
Mariners are fairly set without having to prioritize extensions in ths rotation.
Julio, Naylor, Cal all signed through ’29.
Extend Donovan, Robles and Arozarena. They’d have a four year window with good position prospects for trades.
Extend Spier, Brash and Munoz, bullpen would be set through ’29 too.
Munoz is signed through ’28. That is fine for a reliever, 5he position is to volatile to sign him longer at this age.
Kirby is not resigning with Seattle for that number, Seattle would have to vastly overpay for him to resign. He’s going back east, and to be honest he’s not worth that. $.
I like the Mariners bullpen, I extended Munoz to keep him on the ’29 team in the four year window. A Munoz extension wouldn’t be a priority but could get it done low with the team options you have on him, why not go for 3yr/30M? Rogers just landed 3yr/45M. Munoz might take it to lock down the guaranteed money.
Id be looking at that four year window.
Kirby throws six pitches, excellent control, plus plus slider, knucklecurve, splitter, is throwing the cutter this year, using the changeup more, sinker / 4 seamer sitting at 96mph – out to a good start this season. Best “stuff” on the team.
Rockies would pay him 5/150M if they are really interested in pitchers with stuff and big repertoires, he is exactly the pitcher they are looking for.
As it sits, its his decision. He has three more seasons with Seattle. If he manages to stay healthy, he will easily get 5/90M.
Three Aces if you ask me about it, be nice to keep all three, would be tremendous if they all took the team friendly extension, but the money would have to be low as I outlined above.
The problem with Kirby is not his stuff, it’s between the ears. His mental make up is weakest on the staff. He gets distracted by his own pitch count, defensive miscues, or bad calls by the umps. I’m not saying he’s Eric Bedard, but he has Bedard mental tendencies.
From what I have read, he wants to go to a EC team to be closer to family and he plans on playing out his current contract. If we are able to extend great, but I don’t believe he will give the team that opportunity.
If Gilbert’s 2026 is like his 2025, his value will decline somewhat. He’s putting more strain on the bullpen by only pitching 5 innings. Efficiency matters.
Payroll in the bottom 1/2 of MLB and only above the A’s in the division. They won’t spend the money. They should shop them anyway. Get what you can out of them this year and if things continue to go south, rebuild… beginning at the deadline,
It would be nice if there were other Mariners sights to have comments. The subject matter as is, is too limited. This must be because I want to complain about Dan Wilson’s bullpen choices Wilson should know better after all he is a catcher.
Interestingly are previous coach Servais was bad too yet another catcher he did finally get better, much better the players lost confidence in him .maybe they the players were also not any better.
@leecousins — go ahead and complain right here. Who says you have to stay on topic?
It wasn’t long after Cal signed they were interviewing Gilbert. He was very happy for him and acknowledged he took a below book extension to stay in Seattle long term.
He also kicked around the edges of a long term contract for him. He said he wanted to stay here and stay with Cal. For those that forgot or don’t know. These 5 guys spent a year or more together in AA. It was something the Ms did to let them get comfortable working together.
Kirby like others have said wants to go back East. So let’s send him back there to Detroit for Skubal. OK not happening but would be nice. When the Castillo contract is up or he is traded I think Anderson takes his spot. We need a LHP IMHO.
Sloan will be interesting because he might be trade bait or take Millers spot. He seems to be the guy on the bubble. I like Miller but he is probably the least talented. Then we have Hancock who will be the long man out of the pen. He looked really good last night. Wish it would have been later in the season to see how long he could have gone.