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Mariners Notes: Kikuchi, Anderson, Gilbert

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The Mariners are poised for one of their most active offseasons in years, with their recent retooling effort having reached its conclusion. Before turning their attention to outside acquisitions, they’ll have to determine whether to retain a few of their own key players. This morning, MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered their looming decision regarding Kyle Seager, and Seattle will also have some notable calls to make on the pitching side.

Yusei Kikuchi, the team’s All-Star representative, could hit the open market. The team has to decide on a four-year, $66MM package deal of conjoined club options this winter. If the club declines to make that long-term commitment, Kikuchi will either exercise his own $13MM option to return in 2022 or choose to test free agency.

Entering the season, the team exercising the options looked like a long shot. Kikuchi then got off to the best start of his three-year MLB career, seemingly making that a tougher call for the front office, as Steve explored here in early July. Over the season’s first half, the 30-year-old worked to a 3.48 ERA across 98 1/3 innings, en route to the aforementioned All-Star selection. He’s struggled mightily over the past couple months, though, with just a 6.04 ERA in 47 2/3 frames. The southpaw’s strikeout rate has dipped a couple percentage points relative to the season’s first few months, while his walk rate has spiked. He’s also been tagged for eleven home runs in his last ten starts as his rate of hard contact allowed has ticked up.

Given those recent struggles, the odds the club picks up Kikuchi’s options look to be dwindling, writes Corey Brock of the Athletic. That’s not particularly surprising, as the southpaw now owns a 4.32 ERA with league average strikeout and walk rates (24.3% and 9.3%, respectively) over the course of the season. Paired with his subpar showings in 2019-20, making that level of long-term commitment to Kikuchi would seem quite risky, even for a club with ample payroll space.

Declining the options would give Kikuchi the chance to become the third Mariners’ starter to hit the open market, joining James Paxton and Tyler Anderson. Seattle could be motivated to bring Anderson back, as he’s fared well since being acquired from the Pirates in a midseason deal. Over eight starts, the southpaw has a 3.83 ERA, offsetting a below-average 18.1% strikeout percentage with a very low 3.7% walk rate. Anderson tells Brock he’d have interest in re-signing with Seattle, and M’s manager Scott Servais said he’s “very intrigued” about the possibility of a reunion, opining that Anderson “would be a good fit going forward.”

Anderson has posted back-to-back reliable seasons. Since the start of 2020, the 31-year-old has a 4.25 ERA in 207 2/3 innings. He hasn’t missed many bats, but he throws plenty of strikes and has done fairly well to avoid damaging contact. It’s possible he and his representatives look for a multi-year deal this offseason, but Anderson was limited to a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee last winter and has split this season between two clubs with pitcher-friendly home ballparks.

In addition to augmenting the group in free agency, the Mariners could look into a long-term deal with one of their pitchers already under team control. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Seattle offered righty Logan Gilbert an extension last September, which the former first-round pick declined. Rosenthal doesn’t suggest there are any plans for a future offer in the near future, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the front office decides to make another effort at some point.

Gilbert had yet to make his big league debut at the time of the M’s offer, but he’s since made his first twenty starts. While the 24-year-old only has a 5.10 ERA, his peripherals have been far more encouraging. Gilbert’s 26% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk percentage are each a few points better than the league average, as is his 12.7% swinging strike rate. The front office is likely as bullish as ever on the young starter’s long-term outlook.

While Gilbert reached the majors this year, his mid-May promotion was late enough in the season that he won’t accrue a full year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season, although his promotion should enable him to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player over the 2023-24 offseason (assuming the existing service time structure survives this winter’s collective bargaining negotiations). No starting pitcher in the 0-1 year service class has signed an extension since Chris Archer’s April 2014 deal with the Rays. With nothing of recent precedent, it could be difficult for the sides to line up on a mutually agreeable price point.

Mariners Officially Promote Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert

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The Mariners have made it official: top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert have had their contracts selected to the Major League roster and will make their MLB debuts tonight against the Indians. Seattle has also selected the contract of right-hander Paul Sewald.

To make room on the 26-man roster for that trio, the Mariners have optioned outfielder Taylor Trammell, lefty Aaron Fletcher and righty Wyatt Mills to Tacoma. Additionally, Seattle designated outfielder Braden Bishop for assignment and transferred both Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome to the 60-day injured list to open spots on the 40-man roster. Margevicius, according to the team, has been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Newsome is weighing options for a UCL injury.

Jarred Kelenic | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The promotions of both Kelenic and Gilbert were reported to be taking place earlier in the week. Kelenic comes to the Majors as one of the game’s top overall prospects — a potential five-tool outfielder who was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 draft. Kelenic, in many ways, has become the face of the Mariners’ rebuilding effort. Not only is he the top-ranked prospect in a farm system that was rapidly turned from one of the game’s thinnest to one of the game’s best, but he was the centerpiece of the trade that saw the Jerry Dipoto-led front office trade away Robinson Cano — the signature addition of predecessor Jack Zduriencik.

Kelenic, who has yet to turn 22, had an even brighter spotlight cast upon him after now-former Mariners president Kevin Mather revealed during a recorded interview that Kelenic had turned down an extension offer and the club planned to call him up in late April. It was a clear nod to service time manipulation, one that prompted Kelenic and agent Brodie Scoffield to publicly state that the Mariners had made clear that he’d have been in the Majors last summer had he accepted their offer prior to the 2020 season.

As if that situation didn’t cast enough eyes on Kelenic, he quickly put on a display in Triple-A Tacoma that illustrated why he is so highly regarded within the industry. Kelenic homered twice in his Triple-A debut last week, and he’s gone on to bat .370/.414/.630 with a pair of steals in a total of 29 plate appearances in what the organization hopes will be the only Triple-A time he ever needs.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranks Kelenic as the No. 3 prospect in all of baseball, and Kelenic checks in as the game’s No. 4 overall prospect on the lists penned by Baseball America, MLB.com, Keith Law of The Athletic and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. Scouting reports on him are rife with superlatives. BA calls him an “elite young hitter” who projects to be an “offensive force,” while FanGraphs touts him as a “lethal offensive threat” who’ll hit enough to be a star regardless of his defense — which nearly all suggest to be solid in the outfield corners, at least during his younger seasons.

For all of the focus on Kelenic, the also-touted Gilbert seems to get lost in the shuffle at times. Selected just eight picks after Kelenic in the first round of that 2018 draft, Gilbert tore through minor league lineups in 2019 and may well have been positioned for a call to the big leagues in 2020 had their been a full season. As with Kelenic, Mather said in that interview that Gilbert would be in the big leagues just a few weeks into the season.

Logan Gilbert | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Gilbert, who recently turned 24, racked up 135 innings across two Class-A levels and Double-A in 2019, pitching to a minuscule 2.13 ERA with a huge 31.7 percent strikeout rate against a tiny 6.3 percent walk rate. While he’s not ranked among the game’s five best prospects, none of the aforementioned prospect rankings have Gilbert listed any lower than No. 47 overall.

Both BA and MLB.com rank Gilbert as the game’s No. 28 farmhand, painting the 6’6″ 225-pound righty as a viable mid-rotation starter with the upside to develop into even more than that. He doesn’t have the triple-digit fastball we’ve practically come to expect from so many top pitching prospects, but Gilbert has a mid-90s heater with three average or better secondary offerings and, as Law writes, “some of the best command of anyone on this list.”

The organizational hope is that Gilbert steps up as a foundational piece in an increasingly promising young mix of starters. Ideally, recent first-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock will join him over the next year or so.

The timing of those promotions remains to be seen, but with regard to both Kelenic and Gilbert, they’ll be controlled all the way through 2027 even if they never return to the minors. Both are now likely to be Super Two players — assuming they stick in the Majors and assuming Super Two designation survives the upcoming wave of collective bargaining talks. That would make both players arbitration-eligible four times rather than the standard three, with the first offseason of arb eligibility coming post-2023.

Seattle will also get its first look at the 30-year-old Sewald, a former Mets reliever who has spent parts of four seasons in the big leagues. He’s had some solid stretches out of the ’pen in Queens, but the overall body of work was lacking, as the righty owns a 5.50 ERA in 147 1/3 Major League innings. That said, he also has a career 3.01 ERA in parts of five Triple-A campaigns and had been absolutely lights-out so far in Tacoma, tossing 4 1/3 shutout frames with 10 strikeouts and no walks. It’s always possible that a change of scenery will unlock something, and this is indeed a change for Sewald, who’d spent his entire career prior to 2021 in the Mets organization.

Turning to the players who are being sent out, Trammell will now head to Tacoma and get regular at-bats as he looks to get on track. A well-regarded, top-100 prospect himself, the 23-year-old made the big league roster out of Spring Training but struggled in his initial look at MLB pitching. Through his first 95 trips to the plate, the former No. 35 overall pick (Reds, 2016) managed just a .157/.255/.337 output with a troubling 43 percent strikeout rate.

Trammell spent the 2020 season at the alternate sites for the Padres and Mariners — he was part of last summer’s Austin Nola trade — but hadn’t played in a game setting since 2019 and has never taken a plate appearance in Triple-A. With Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger now slated to make up the Mariners’ starting outfield, there weren’t going to be everyday at-bats for Trammell. Given his prospect status and his ceiling, the Mariners clearly want to make sure he’s getting everyday reps to build toward a future where he’s a vital piece of a dynamic outfield mix.

Bishop, meanwhile, now becomes a candidate to either be traded or passed through outright waivers, where any team can claim him. The 27-year-old hasn’t hit much in a small sample of 99 Major League plate appearances, but he does have a career .267/.355/.465 slash in Triple-A and is capable of playing all three outfield spots. He’s also optionable for the rest of the season, so a club with some depth issues in center field — e.g. the Phillies or Pirates — could have interest in taking a look either via waiver claim or a small trade.

As for Margevicius and Newsome, their diagnoses are obviously quite unfortunate. The Mariners initially placed Margevicius on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, but a thoracic outlet syndrome diagnosis is typically followed by an invasive surgery to remove a portion of the pitcher’s rib. TOS surgery has a much spottier track record of recovery for pitchers than Tommy John surgery, and if Margevicius ultimately goes under the knife, it’d quite likely end his 2021 season. Manager Scott Servais revealed last night that Tommy John surgery was on the table for the 24-year-old Newsome, so it’s hardly a surprise to see him moved to the 60-day IL with a confirmed diagnosis of a UCL injury.

All told, it’s a rather lengthy list of transactions for the Mariners — but one they hope will mark a watershed day in their organization’s history. It’s probably unfair to any prospect to view him as a potential organizational savior and tie the fate of a broad-reaching rebuild to his successes or failures, but right or wrong, those are the type of expectations fans will place on the likes of Kelenic and Gilbert. They’ll now join Lewis, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, on a roster that seems to skew younger and younger as the months tick by.

Should this youth movement bear fruit in the form of multiple productive young stars, the Mariners will look all the more formidable in the long run. Seattle has just $19.2MM in guaranteed salary on the books next year — including the $3.75MM they owe to the Mets as part of the Cano/Kelenic agreement — and that number drops to $14MM in 2023. Considering this is a club that has in the past trotted out a $158MM Opening Day payroll, the confluence of this group’s arrival and next year’s star-studded free-agent class offers Mariners fans the hope of finally reaching an oasis in desert of a playoff drought that now spans two decades.

Mariners To Promote Logan Gilbert

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The Mariners will promote standout pitching prospect Logan Gilbert, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Gilbert will start their game against the Indians on Thursday, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets.

This is the second major promotion coming this week for Seattle, which is also set to call up elite outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic prior to Thursday’s contest. The Mariners and their fans will get their first major league looks at two players they hope will be part of the solution in Seattle for the long haul.

Like Kelenic, Gilbert was part of the first-round class of 2018. The Mariners took the right-hander 14th overall out of Stetson University, where Cy Young winners Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber attended. And though Gilbert didn’t pitch professionally that season because of mononucleosis, he has since dominated minor league competition. Gilbert combined for 135 innings among the Single-A, High-A and Double-A levels in 2019, when he recorded a sterling 2.13 ERA with 165 strikeouts against 33 walks. There was no minor league campaign in 2020, which prevented Gilbert from pitching in a real game, but he threw five innings of four-hit, one-run ball with five strikeouts and no walks in his Triple-A debut this year.

Thanks in part to the excellence he has shown at lower levels, Gilbert ranks as one of the sport’s premier pitching prospects. MLB.com places Gilbert No. 28 on its top 100 list and writes that his impressive four-pitch repertoire – a fastball, slider, curve and changeup – could help him turn into a No. 2 starter in the majors. Baseball America joins MLB.com in ranking Gilbert 28th, while FanGraphs (No. 37), ESPN (No. 43) and The Athletic (No. 47) also regard him as a top-end prospect.

Gilbert will now join a starting rotation that has received mixed results this year. Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn have fared reasonably well over a combined 18 starts. On the other hand, the M’s only other hurlers with three or more starts – Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Nick Margevicius – haven’t performed as hoped. Gonzales and Margevicius have been out since late April with injuries.

If Gilbert takes hold of a rotation spot and stays up for good, the Mariners will be able to control him through 2027. He’s also slated for Super Two status, meaning he’ll go through arbitration four times.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Place James Paxton, Jake Fraley On Injured List

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12:35pm: The Mariners announced that Paxton and Fraley have both been placed on the 10-day injured list. Paxton has been diagnosed with a left forearm strain, while the MRI confirmed a hamstring strain for Fraley. The Mariners recalled outfielder Braden Bishop and righty Ljay Newsome from their alternate training site to take their spots on the roster.

8:22am: James Paxton returned to the Mariners’ rotation last night after two years in the Bronx, but his start was cut short by another forearm injury, as he exited after just 1 1/3 innings. Outfielder Jake Fraley, meanwhile, left the game with what the team later announced as a hamstring strain after making a diving catch in left field. Both players will undergo an MRI this morning, manager Scott Servais told reporters after the game (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Paxton’s 2020 season with the Yankees was cut short by a forearm strain, so it’s obviously a concerning development for him to suffer this type of injury — particularly so early in the season. The lefty did tell Divish and others that the pain he’s feeling in his arm isn’t at the same level as it was when he sustained that injury last summer.

The Mariners brought Paxton back to the organization on a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal over the winter. The 32-year-old had interest from several teams, as one would expect based on his track record of success, but he seemingly preferred to return to Seattle. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto noted at the time of the signing that Paxton had been sharp in workouts for MLB teams and gave the club something of a “hometown discount.”

The reunion looked to be going well in Spring Training, where Paxton struck out half of the 34 batters he faced and allowed just one run during Cactus League play. For the time being, he struck an optimistic tone that the current issue could be muscular in nature and something from which he can quickly return.

As for Fraley, the 25-year-old is out to an unusual start to his 2021 season. He’s just 1-for-10 through five games, but he’s drawn eight walks and been hit by a pitch, leading to a bizarre .100/.500/.200 batting line through his first 19 plate appearances. Acquired from the Rays as part of the Mike Zunino trade, Fraley hasn’t hit much in two prior stints with the Mariners in 2019-20, but he only tallied 70 plate appearances during that time. He’s a career .286/.362/.480 hitter in the minors — including a .276/.333/.553 showing in 38 Triple-A games.

For the moment, however, it seems that an IL stint could be on the horizon, which will have the baseball world watching intently. The most straightforward move for the M’s would simply be to recall Braden Bishop from their alternate site, as he’s on the 40-man roster already, but Seattle also has top prospect Jarred Kelenic on the cusp of his first big league promotion as well.

Kelenic’s service time status was thrust into the national spotlight when now-former CEO Kevin Mather blatantly indicated in a Q&A with the Bellevue Rotary Club that the 21-year-old Kelenic had turned down an extension offer and wouldn’t be called to the Majors until mid-April (the general point at which the Mariners would gain an extra year of control over Kelenic). Kelenic missed some time in Spring Training with a minor knee injury, but he returned to the lineup and immediately went 3-for-6 with a double and a homer in two games before being reassigned to minor league camp, so the injury looks to be behind him.

It still seems likelier that the Mariners will turn to Bishop for the time being, as calling up Kelenic now would still give him enough time to accrue a full year of Major League service in 2021. That would no longer be the case as soon as next weekend, however.

Turning back to the pitching staff, the Mariners were already using a six-man rotation, so it’s likely they’ll simply shorten up to five starters for the time being and carry an extra reliever. The bullpen had to cover 7 2/3 innings last night and took a beating at the hands of the White Sox in the process, so Seattle would probably prefer to get a fresh arm into the relief mix anyhow.

It’s at least worth noting that as with the Fraley/Kelenic situation, the Mariners have a highly regarded pitching prospect who is near MLB readiness: 2018 first-rounder Logan Gilbert. While this comment didn’t draw as much attention as the Kelenic revelation, Mather indicated in that same interview that he expected Gilbert to be pitching in the Majors by mid-April (obviously, an allusion to his service time). Gilbert, however, only tossed a pair of innings in Spring Training before being reassigned to minor league camp, so he may not yet be built up to the point where he’s an option even in the event that Paxton is shelved for a notable period of time. If the Mariners want to stick with a six-man rotation and Paxton does miss some time, they could give a few starts to Ljay Newsome and/or Nick Margevicius. Before too long, however, Gilbert seems likely to emerge as an option at the big league level.

Mariners Release Gerson Bautista

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The Mariners announced a slate of roster moves last night, reducing their spring roster to 48 players. Among the most notable cuts: right-hander Gerson Bautista was released from the organization.

This marks the second time that the Mariners organization has parted ways with Bautista, although the circumstances are different. Seattle outrighted Bautista off its 40-man roster at the end of the 2020 season after he missed the year due to a flexor strain in his pitching arm, and he was able to elect free agency thereafter. He quickly returned on a new minor league deal, signing back with the Mariners just two weeks later.

That’s not the case this time around, as Bautista wasn’t on the 40-man roster and has been able to pitch this spring — but has not done so effectively. The hard-throwing 25-year-old served up three runs in 5 1/3 innings, which isn’t necessarily alarming on its own, but he did so on the strength of seven hits and six walks without recording a strikeout. Small sample or not, six walks against no strikeouts through 26 batters faced isn’t an encouraging omen for any pitcher — particularly one who punched out 27.5 percent of his opponents at the Triple-A level. Bautista came to the Mariners alongside Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster with the Mets, and it seems he may now be destined for a new organization.

The Mariners also optioned righty Yohan Ramirez to Triple-A to begin the season after the righty accrued a full year of service in their bullpen last year. Ramirez posted a strong 2.61 ERA and whiffed 26 batters in 20 2/3 frames, so some may be a bit surprised by his demotion. However, in spite of that impressive ERA, he also issued 20 walks, plunked four hitters and tossed a pair of wild pitches. His control could clearly use some refinement, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that he’s also been behind after spending time away from the club due to Covid-19 protocols. Ramirez tossed just one inning in an official game this spring and, despite not yielding a hit, allowed a pair of runs on a walk, two hit batters and two wild pitches.

It’s also notable that top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert was reassigned to a minor league camp. The former first-rounder only made one Cactus League start, and given his lack of pro experience — just one full season, in 2019 — that wouldn’t have registered as much of a surprise. However, former CEO Kevin Mather suggested during the interview that led to his resignation that Gilbert wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster but would be in the Majors “by mid-April.” As such, the right-hander’s timeline to the big leagues will be interesting to monitor. He’s yet to pitch above Double-A, where he started nine games in 2019. In a total of 135 frames between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A that year, Gilbert worked to a combined 2.13 ERA with a gaudy 31.7 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 6.3 percent walk rate.

Mariners CEO Kevin Mather Resigns

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FEB. 22, 3:02pm: Mather has resigned, Divish was among those to tweet.  As part of a statement regarding Mather’s resignation, Mariners chairman John Stanton said: “There is no excuse for what was said, and I won’t try to make one. I offer my sincere apology on behalf of the club and my partners to our players and fans. We must be, and do, better. We have a lot of work to do to make amends.” Stanton added that he’ll serve as acting president/CEO until the team finds a permanent replacement for Mather.

2:17pm: The MLB Players Association has released a statement about Mather: “The Club’s video presentation is a highly disturbing yet critically important window into how Players are genuinely viewed by management. Not just because of what was said, but also because it represents an unfiltered look into Club thinking. It is offensive, and it is not surprising that fans and others around the game are offended as well. Players remain committed to confronting these issues at the bargaining table and elsewhere.”

FEB. 21, 10:20PM: Mather issued a public apology, stating “I want to apologize to every member of the Seattle Mariners organization, especially our players and to our fans. There is no excuse for my behavior, and I take full responsibility for my terrible lapse in judgement.  My comments were my own. They do not reflect the views and strategy of the Mariners baseball leadership who are responsible for decisions about the development and status of the players at all levels of the organization.

“I’ve been on the phone most of the day today apologizing to the many people I have insulted, hurt, or disappointed in speaking at a recent online event.  I am committed to make amends for the things I said that were personally hurtful and I will do whatever it takes to repair the damage I have caused to the Seattle Mariners organization.”

7:25PM: In a video speech given to the Bellevue Breakfast Rotary Club on February 5, Mariners president/CEO Kevin Mather discussed a number of topics surrounding his team and the upcoming season at large.  The speech was posted to YouTube earlier today and later removed, though not before several outlets (including Grant Bronsdon and Kate Preusser of the Lookout Landing blog and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) took note of several eyebrow-raising statements made by the Seattle executive.

Speaking with an unusual (and rather shocking) amount of openness, Mather made multiple comments that are sure to gain the attention of Mariners fans, players, and the players’ union.  The most problematic remarks concerned how star prospect Julio Rodriguez and former pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma reportedly have or had difficulties speaking English.  Asked to tell attendees about Rodriguez, Mather began with, “Julio Rodríguez has got a personality bigger than all of you combined. He is loud, his English is not tremendous.” Rodriguez has already responded to Mather’s comments with a pair of pointed tweets.

In response to a separate question, Mather went on a tangent about Iwakuma, saying:

“For instance, we just re-hired Iwakuma, he was a pitcher with us for a number of years. Wonderful human being, his English was terrible. He wanted to get back into the game, he came to us, we quite frankly want him as our Asian scout, interpreter, what’s going on with the Japanese league. He’s coming to spring training. And I’m going to say, I’m tired of paying his interpreter. When he was a player, we’d pay Iwakuma X, but we’d also have to pay $75,000 a year to have an interpreter with him. His English suddenly got better, his English got better when we told him that!”

While Mather also praised Rodriguez, Iwakuma, and other players during the speech, his overall breakdown of Seattle’s roster carried more than a few awkward moments.  For instance, Mather continually referred to catcher Luis Torrens as “Luis Torres,” and he described longtime third baseman Kyle Seager as “probably overpaid” while also citing Seager’s clubhouse leadership.

It’s quite possible league officials may also have a few words with Mather considering how he discussed such topics as prospect service time, noting that the Mariners didn’t intend to promote any of the top prospects working out at their alternate training camp last summer.

“There was no chance you were going to see these young players at T-Mobile Park,” Mather said.  “We weren’t going to put them on the 40-man roster, we weren’t going to start the service time clock.  There were all kinds of reasons that, if we had an injury problem or COVID outbreak, you might’ve seen my big tummy out there in left field.  You would not have seen our prospects playing in T-Mobile Park.”

It isn’t any surprise that the Mariners or any other team are looking to gain as much extra team control as possible over their young players, with this tactic most often manifesting itself in a prospect’s debut being delayed just long enough so the club can gain an extra year of control over the player, or delay their chances of reaching Super Two eligibility (and another year of arbitration).  Front office executives couch these decisions under a nebulous guise of saying that a prospect needs more seasoning in one aspect or another of his game, with the prospect suddenly being ready as soon as the service time threshold has been passed.  The MLBPA was already expected to pursue ways of addressing this loophole during the upcoming collective bargaining agreement negotiations, and Mather’s comments figure to be the union’s clearest evidence yet that teams are engaging in service-time machinations.

This coming spring, Mather implied that both star outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and pitching prospect Logan Gilbert would have their debuts delayed.  “We would like [Kelenic] to get a few more at-bats in the minor leagues,” Mather said.  “Probably Triple-A Tacoma for a month, and then he will likely be in left field at T-Mobile Park for the next six or seven years.”  As for Gilbert, “you won’t see him on April 1st, but by mid-April” he will be on Seattle’s active roster.

Kelenic was offered a contract extension of six years in length, Mather said, plus multiple years of club options.  This has been the standard model for most teams when making long-term deals with players who have yet to debut in the big leagues, and the Mariners reached such a deal themselves with Evan White back in November 2019.

Mather didn’t seem to have any hard feelings about Kelenic’s decision to reject the offer, and he also gave credit to White for taking an extension, saying the first baseman “took a lot of heat for signing that deal, the union really pushed back and said, ’don’t do it.’ ”  Mather added that the Mariners will continue to offer similar extensions “to…three or four more players…over the next two years,” saying “we’re eager to sign these players up [and] we’re willing to take that risk.  Some we’ll win on, some we’ll lose on.”

Mather also made some candid comments about Seattle’s pursuit of free agent pitching, as his speech took place before the team signed James Paxton.  The CEO mentioned that the Mariners were in talks with both Paxton and Taijuan Walker, noting that Walker “thinks he’s going to get a three-year deal.  I don’t think he’s going to get a three-year deal.”  As it turned out, Walker essentially did get a three-year contract from the Mets in the form of a two-year pact with a player option for 2023 that will pay Walker at least $20MM in guaranteed money and potentially as much as $25.5MM.

Speaking of the free agent market in general, Mather said that Major League Baseball “lost $2.9 billion last year, and we have taken the position that there are 180 free agents still out there on February 5 unsigned, and sooner or later, these players are going to turn their hat over and come with hat in hand, looking for a contract.”

In terms of the season itself, Mather said he was “embarrassed” that Spring Training was beginning as scheduled, and that the league and players couldn’t come to an agreement on delaying both spring camp and the season itself by a month.  “There is a high level of distrust between the union and the management currently, and I’m very worried about what’s coming in the future,” Mather said.  The Mariners are hoping to have a “small” number of fans in attendance to begin the season and then gradually increase to nearer to full capacity by September, but Mather said that the situation will all depend on local health officials and the state of the pandemic.

Mariners Likely Done Adding Major League Pieces

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The Mariners sought multiyear accords with a couple of free agents this winter, including Kolten Wong and Tommy La Stella, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. The Mariners were clear in their attempt to find a left-handed bat to split time with Dylan Moore at second base. Ideally, that player could stick his cleat in the grass at times as well, specifically as an option in left field.

Though the Mariners came up empty, there were more than a few free agents who fit that mold. Ha-Seong Kim, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Villar, Jurickson Profar, Brad Miller, Jace Peterson, Ehire Adrianza, Brock Holt, and Dee Strange-Gordon signed elsewhere at a variety of different price points. It’s a little hard to fathom that the Mariners couldn’t find a way to add someone from that group. Presumably, those names either didn’t fit GM Jerry Dipoto’s vision or priced themselves beyond the Mariners’ comfort zone. Mike Freeman and Eric Sogard are two options whom the Mariners could turn to, should they want to bolster their depth. They are prepared to enter camp with the roster as-is, however.

Per Kramer, Dipoto more-or-less put a bow on their winter work, saying, “We had a series of targets, each of which we thought were ideal fits. We put them in an order that we thought best represented the way we saw that player, and then we tried to go out and get them. In all of those cases, we offered multiyear contracts that seemed to fit what we were trying to do not just for 2021, but for 2022 and potentially beyond that. We were aggressive in that market. We just failed to bring in the offensive piece we were looking to add.”

Without that additional piece, the Mariners will roll with Moore at second and Shed Long filling that versatile bench role. Sam Haggerty and Donovan Walton will push him for playing time in spring training, while Taylor Trammell and Jake Fraley will get take some spring at-bats in left. Designated hitter Ty France could also see time at second.

In further Mariners news, Logan Gilbert will likely start the season in Triple-A. While he was previously going to have an opportunity to contend for a spot in their six-man rotation, the James Paxton signing will allow the Mariners to protect his innings and bring him along slowly.

This follows a trend for the Mariners’ roster-building this winter, as they’ve tried to build out their depth to allow for maximum flexibility in how they promote and push their young players. Mission accomplished: if anything, the Mariners are light on veteran depth at the moment on the position player side. As is, they can allot most of the playing time this spring to youngsters, including top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez – both of whom are likely to start the season in the minors.

The Mariners CBT payroll sits at $102MM, per Roster Resource, with their actual payroll even slimmer at $85MM. That leaves them roughly $5MM shy from 2020 payroll level. This winter, they handed out four Major League deals to free agent pitchers: Paxton, Ken Giles, Keynan Middleton, and Chris Flexen. Giles and Flexen received two-year pacts, though Giles will miss this upcoming season. The Mariners have not signed a position player to a Major League contract.

AL Notes: Mariners, Graveman, Rotation, Rays, Arozarena

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Kendall Graveman signed back with the Mariners with the expectation of sticking in the bullpen, he said on the Extra Innings Podcast. Graveman pitched out the bullpen consistently for the first time in his career last season for the Mariners, emerging as an option for high-leverage opportunities. The former Oakland Athletic spent 2018 with the Cubs while recovering from Tommy John. He signed with the Mariners and made a couple of starts in 2020, but the bulk of his outings came out of the bullpen. Heading into 2021, he’s fully committed to a bullpen role. He’ll the 30-years-old in December, and though he’s new to the bullpen, Graveman spoke confidently about his ability to adjust and let his stuff play up during shorter outings. The right-hander also spoke about shortening his arsenal. He plans on focusing on what works best and sticking with a couple of his strongest pitches, probably a heater, change, and curve primarily, though he also spoke about working in a two-seamer on occasion as a way to vary the look from the fastball.

  • Even with Graveman firmly in the bullpen, the Mariners plan on use of a six-man rotation in 2021 to help keep starters healthy, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. With that in mind, they’re likely to at least explore the starting pitching market in free agency. Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, and Justin Dunn figure to return to the rotation in 2021, while Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome are the other holdovers. Logan Gilbert could also emerge as a potential option at some point in 2021, if not by Opening Day. Gilbert will turn 24 early in 2021. He finished 2019 with 9 starts in Double-A with a 2.88 ERA.
  • Randy Arozarena’s playoff performance was a dramatic enough affair to spark a feature film. Wonderfilm Media has begun working on an Arozarena biopic with plans for release in 2022 or 2023, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The film, of course, won’t solely portray the postseason. Rather, the film will focus on Arozarena’s journey to MLB from Cuba. Wonderfilm co-founder Bret Saxon said (per Topkin), “We feel like the heart of this movie is his journey, and the people around him, how he was inspiring and helping the family back home. But, for sure, some of those big payoff moments are on the field, so there will be plenty of actual baseball in stadiums.”

 

Mariners Likely To Open With Six-Man Rotation

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The Mariners are planning to begin the season with a six-man rotation in place, general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Greg Johns of MLB.com). That tactic should allow the Seattle club the opportunity to manage the innings of younger arms on a per-game basis while also maximizing their opportunity to evaluate some up-and-coming arms who could factor into the long-term outlook.

Recently extended southpaw Marco Gonzales seems likely to get the Opening Day nod as the Mariners’ most established starter, and the team will hope for better results from 29-year-old lefty Yusei Kikuchi in the second season of his uniquely structured free-agent deal. Kikuchi, who had established himself as one of Nippon Professional Baseball’s premier arms prior to 2019, is locked in at $43MM from 2019-21. After the contract’s third year, Seattle can pick up a four-year, $66MM “option.” If the club declines to do so, Kikuchi can instead exercise a $13MM player option. In essence, he’s guaranteed $56MM over four years, while the M’s have the opportunity to lock him up at what would be a total of seven years and $109MM if he takes his game to a new level between now and the completion of the 2021 campaign.

Beyond that pair of lefties, Seattle will get longer looks at southpaw Justus Sheffield and righty Justin Dunn — two key trade acquisitions that came over in the 2018-19 offseason. Sheffield, a former first-rounder and longtime top prospect, was the headline piece of the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees. Dunn came to the Mariners alongside vaunted outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic and righty reliever Gerson Bautista in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster.

The Mariners also rolled the dice on a pair of low-cost free agents this winter, nabbing former division rival Kendall Graveman and former Mariner Taijuan Walker on one-year pacts. Both have seen their careers slowed by 2018 Tommy John surgery. Graveman, who had his procedure in late July that year, didn’t make it back to the big leagues in 2019. Walker’s surgery was in April 2018, but a strained shoulder capsule limited him to one inning in 2019, which came in the final game of the season.

As one would expect from a rebuilding club, the Mariners have plenty of other young options to dream on, though the organization’s very best pitching prospects are likely a bit too far down the pipeline to factor into the 2020 season. The Mariners have selected a college right-hander with their top pick in each of the past three drafts — Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and now Emerson Hancock — and while that trio is unlikely to pitch in the Majors this year (Gilbert being the lone plausible exception), Dipoto did suggest that they and other top prospects could be on the taxi squad primarily for developmental purposes (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Working out with other taxi squad members would give that promising group critical developmental reps in a year where no formal minor league season is expected to be played.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Rangers, Astros

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Some news and notes from around the American League West…

  • While Spring Training impressions were limited due to the mid-March shutdown, the Mariners were still encouraged by the progress demonstrated by some expected key players, manager Scott Servais said this week on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). In particular, lefty Justus Sheffield and righties Justin Dunn and Logan Gilbert looked to have taken notable strides. Sheffield, the centerpiece of the Mariners’ James Paxton return, allowed two runs on five hits and no walks with 12 punchouts in eight spring innings. Dunn, acquired alongside Jarred Kelenic in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster, whiffed 10 hitters in six innings while holding opponents to two runs in 6 2/3 frames. Gilbert, Seattle’s first-rounder in 2018, pitched four shutout innings with four strikeouts, no walks and one hit. The M’s are hopeful that this trio can soon ascend to the big league rotation alongside Marco Gonzales as the organization emerges from an accelerated rebuilding process. There’s clearly more to the belief that strides were made than those surface-level stats, but the trio’s showing nevertheless was heartening for Mariners fans.
  • Rangers slugger Joey Gallo spoke with reporters about the dimensions of the newly constructed Globe Life Field, noting that the team’s new home park was “playing big as hell” during his batting practice session (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Gallo pointed out that the park is particularly deep in center field, where it’s 407 feet straightaway. That said, as Grant points out, the distance may not make a huge difference for Gallo, whose home runs to center field have averaged 434 feet in distance. GM Jon Daniels added that Gallo has been hitting with the roof closed, and opening it while hitting game balls against live pitching could change things. Still, it’d be a notable change for the Rangers to suddenly find themselves in a pitcher-friendly or even neutral park after long playing in one of the game’s most hitter-friendly stadiums. Gallo did offer positive reviews of the park’s artificial surface, calling it the “best turf I’ve ever been on” and touting its lack of “lingering side effects.” Gallo acknowledges that Rangers players were worried about the surface heading into the season, but his early experiences have allayed some of those concerns.
  • The Astros are facing a potential exodus in the outfield this coming offseason, and Jake Kaplan of The Athletic notes in his latest mailbag column that they’re looking at a similar slate of departures post-2021, when Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers Jr. could all hit the open market. Houston will see George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick hit the market after whatever type of 2020 season we get. Given their poorly regarded farm system — not to mention the loss of draft picks in 2020-21 — the ’Stros are faced with an increasingly precarious position. It’s of course possible that the Astros could yet work out some extensions with various members of that core, but it’s also eminently apparent that a fair bit of roster turnover can be expected in the next couple of years — with several high-profile names likely to depart.
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