Tarik Skubal is the overwhelming favorite to be next offseason's top free agent. The two-time defending AL Cy Young winner is probably the best pitcher on the planet. He's almost certainly not signing an extension with the Tigers. As long as he stays healthy during his walk year, Skubal should become MLB's first $400MM+ pitcher.
Clear as the top of the pitching market looks, the #1 spot in the hitting class is wide open. That's a rare position even in March. Each year at MLBTR, we publish our first power ranking of the following winter's free agent class not long after Opening Day.
Over the past five Aprils, the #1 players on our initial free agent ranking were: Corey Seager*, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. The first four players went on to sign for more than $300MM (well above in Ohtani's and Soto's cases). Tucker had at least one $350MM offer but opted for a shorter deal at a record average annual value. It's usually very easy to identify an upcoming free class's top hitter one or more years in advance.
Since that's not the case for the 2026-27 class, there's room for debate as to which player enters the season in pole position. Their respective '26 performances will naturally play a large role in determining future contracts, but there are only a handful of players who have a real chance to land the biggest deal among next offseason's hitters. Randy Arozarena, for example, is one of the best hitters in the class, but it's safe to assume he's not commanding the biggest contract as a left fielder who'll test the market in his age-32 season. That's just not a profile that lends itself to a nine-figure deal.
Let's run through the more realistic possibilities. The full list of 2026-27 free agents is available here.
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yeah we already know he’s headed to LA. it’s all good. no need to hype up any other team having a real shot.
First of all cut the crying second of all who are you even referring to?…..
He’s a Cubs fan so I assume he’s talking about Hoerner.
I mean it’s a fair assumption that the best FA of any given offseason will go play in Chavez Ravine, if recent history matters.
It’s been two out of the last how many offseasons? What about the Mets?
If they’re crying about anything baseball related, it’s always a cub fan.
PREACH!
Ohmy.. And who’s whining now?
Still cub fans…why?
weak
Lot of advanced age in this group. I don’t see the Braves declining the options on Acuna or Albies so guys like Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, and Daulton Varsho are the top hitters in the class and only Varsho is likely to get a deal over 5 years
They Cubs absolutely must do any and everything they can to extend Seiya Suzuki. They’d be very foolish to let him walk without at least giving him a serious competitive offer. Especially when they have 1 player in the books beyond 2026. They can offer him 5/150 if they wanted too. He would be foolish to not take that. Nico Hoerner however should be the number 1 priority when it comes to extensions
Think you’re selling Arozarena short, especially compared with Grisham and Varsho. If he posts yet another 3-win season, there’s no reason to think Arozarena can’t approach a deal similar to Kyle Schwarber’s.
That said, it would be surprising if the answer to this question isn’t Bichette or Chisholm.
I can’t imagine Arozarena getting anything close to Schwarber’s 5/$150M.
yeah,no way Arozarena gets that
I think Bichette declines his opt out, Acuna Jr., Yandy Diaz & Ozzie Albies have their club options picked up, and everyone else with (parentheses) becomes a free agent. Making Bohm & Hoerner possibly the best bats available.
Atlanta should seriously consider trading Acuna for a haul. They have no offensive talent in the farm system worth speaking of. Acuna is their only real chance to change that. But AA won’t consider it. He’s married to the early-career extensions he gave out that have not aged well at all and refuses to move on.
Serious question: I’m not dumb enough to deny Acunas obvious talent, but with two major knee surgeries and a hefty contract, what would the “haul” look like? I don’t think you can build a franchise around him. The Dodgers and Mets won’t empty the farm for him because they just buy the best hitters available every year.
He’s so affordable that someone would likely take a chance on him. Atlanta would never trade him in division, so that rules out the Mets. Wouldn’t put it past the Dodgers though.
This gets two thumbs down for obvious reasoning
There will not be a 2027 season or at a minimum MAYBE 1/2 a season which is good as a lost season as the Owners will really push hard to eliminate lots of things such as deferred money, install an international draft as no more Japanese players getting to choose their destination, salary cap, salary floor and the list goes on.
Anthony,
You’re quite pessimistic, and the owners can push for whatever they like, the players can push back.
Hence why he said there’ll be at the most a 1/2 season. If they fix those issues it will be worth it. Sorry not sorry.
I don’t care how “crafty” he is, a Major League pitcher in 2026 throwing 87-89 will get smoked. Ober won’t last long.
If Skubal gets more than 7 years 400 million at 30 years old good luck to tha team that signs him. Half way through that contract it’s gonna start to age really badly.
Love watching Skoobs when he’s dealing, but I have a gut feeling his $400M+ mega deal won’t age well.
Don’t think it’s Hoerner. When one of your best tools is your legs, that’s not a guy I want to give a huge, long-term deal to.
Do you think there will be baseball in 2027?
I can say with absolute certainty I have no idea. I’m okay with no baseball if the result is a real, hard, salary floor and cap; with the total value of the contract divided equally as a per year rate, so teams can’t go around it with deferred money.