Lucas Giolito is the most notable unsigned player in MLB. The veteran right-hander went unsigned throughout the offseason. There hasn’t been much in the way of public rumors, as reported ties to the Braves and Padres were rather quickly downplayed.
Giolito finished last season with the Red Sox on the injured list due to flexor irritation. That has led some fans to speculate about health as a potential explanation for his remaining unsigned. The free agent starter has maintained he’s fully healthy going back to November, however. He reiterated as much in an appearance on The Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast with WEEI’s Rob Bradford this week, saying he simply hasn’t found what he considers a worthwhile contract offer.
“I just want to play for close to what my value is,” Giolito told Bradford. “Everything is based on these models now. Everyone uses projection and models. My agency (CAA) does the same thing. When you look at models and projections (for value), it’s like ‘alright cool, give me something that’s relatively close to that.’ Let’s go and get it. I’m ready to go.”
The righty said he never felt particularly close to signing over the winter. “The last few months have been very strange. Talks seem like they’re heating up, then it’s like ‘ok never mind,'” he added. The full conversation is worth a listen, as Giolito discusses his free agent process and current training regimen.
He’s working at Cressey Sports Performance in Florida, as he has throughout the winter. He’s throwing around 75 pitches in each of his bullpen sessions. He implied he’s essentially in game shape and wouldn’t need much more of a buildup once he signs. “When I get the opportunity, do you want me to throw a game in Triple-A to get ready or put me right in (the majors) for five innings,” he asked rhetorically. “I’ll do whatever. I’m happy to do whatever once I get the opportunity to help a team.”
That has some parallels to the Blue Jays’ recent signing of Patrick Corbin. The southpaw was reportedly working around 80 pitches in his individual side sessions before Toronto picked him up last Friday. Corbin consented to an optional assignment and made one tuneup start in Low-A. The Jays recalled him today for his team debut. He started and went four innings and 85 pitches in his first MLB appearance.
Giolito could seemingly follow a similar path. It appears to be a financial hangup. Corbin signed a $1MM guarantee, barely north of the league minimum. If Giolito were willing to do that, he’d have been signed months ago. He’s surely not interested in signing for that little after posting a 3.41 ERA across 145 innings for Boston last season.
The former All-Star said he believes that early-season injuries and struggles around the league could increase interest, though he predictably declined to go into detail about which teams might be involved. The Astros, A’s, Angels, Padres and Tigers are among the teams that have had wobbly performances and/or health concerns in the early going.
Speculatively, Houston probably makes the most sense on paper. They’ve started 6-7 despite scoring the most runs in MLB. They’re down their top two starters, Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier, for multiple weeks due to shoulder strains. Tatsuya Imai hasn’t thrown strikes in his first three MLB starts. They’re moving to a six-man rotation despite having Mike Burrows and Lance McCullers Jr. as their two most reliable healthy starters. The Astros are around $12MM below the competitive balance tax threshold.
He’ll sign somewhere. Anywhere. Man’s gotta eat.
He can sign with the Dodgers if he’s willing to go cheap. They could use the extra arm to keep their starters fresh(er).
It would be interesting to know what his asking price is. It’s gotta be unrealistic for him to still be on the market, and even so teams know his injury history.
I would say even with his injury history around he should be around 10 plus incentives seems about right. He is a mid to back end guy with some upside. He is coming off injury and his recent injury history, but he is still 30 which is not young but not over the hill yet either. Let hope he is not asking for too much more than that as most teams are probably near where they want to be salary wise and the big boys that spend seem to not have the room for him.
Think at this point he has to settle for 5 plus some easy to reach incentives
@bigdaddyt
A la Scherzer. 3M base with escalators that could take him to 10M.
10 base was what I was thinking as well, and then I was reminded that he was real bad post trade deadline in 23, and that just adds to the time missed due to injury. So I feel teams are probably at 5MM or so plus incentives and he feels that’s cheap. Pure speculation, but 🤷♂️
He should throw them smoothly next time. If you throw roughly sometimes you can get injured.