Lucas Giolito is the most notable unsigned player in MLB. The veteran right-hander went unsigned throughout the offseason. There hasn’t been much in the way of public rumors, as reported ties to the Braves and Padres were rather quickly downplayed.
Giolito finished last season with the Red Sox on the injured list due to flexor irritation. That has led some fans to speculate about health as a potential explanation for his remaining unsigned. The free agent starter has maintained he’s fully healthy going back to November, however. He reiterated as much in an appearance on The Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast with WEEI’s Rob Bradford this week, saying he simply hasn’t found what he considers a worthwhile contract offer.
“I just want to play for close to what my value is,” Giolito told Bradford. “Everything is based on these models now. Everyone uses projection and models. My agency (CAA) does the same thing. When you look at models and projections (for value), it’s like ‘alright cool, give me something that’s relatively close to that.’ Let’s go and get it. I’m ready to go.”
The righty said he never felt particularly close to signing over the winter. “The last few months have been very strange. Talks seem like they’re heating up, then it’s like ‘ok never mind,'” he added. The full conversation is worth a listen, as Giolito discusses his free agent process and current training regimen.
He’s working at Cressey Sports Performance in Florida, as he has throughout the winter. He’s throwing around 75 pitches in each of his bullpen sessions. He implied he’s essentially in game shape and wouldn’t need much more of a buildup once he signs. “When I get the opportunity, do you want me to throw a game in Triple-A to get ready or put me right in (the majors) for five innings,” he asked rhetorically. “I’ll do whatever. I’m happy to do whatever once I get the opportunity to help a team.”
That has some parallels to the Blue Jays’ recent signing of Patrick Corbin. The southpaw was reportedly working around 80 pitches in his individual side sessions before Toronto picked him up last Friday. Corbin consented to an optional assignment and made one tuneup start in Low-A. The Jays recalled him today for his team debut. He started and went four innings and 85 pitches in his first MLB appearance.
Giolito could seemingly follow a similar path. It appears to be a financial hangup. Corbin signed a $1MM guarantee, barely north of the league minimum. If Giolito were willing to do that, he’d have been signed months ago. He’s surely not interested in signing for that little after posting a 3.41 ERA across 145 innings for Boston last season.
The former All-Star said he believes that early-season injuries and struggles around the league could increase interest, though he predictably declined to go into detail about which teams might be involved. The Astros, A’s, Angels, Padres and Tigers are among the teams that have had wobbly performances and/or health concerns in the early going.
Speculatively, Houston probably makes the most sense on paper. They’ve started 6-7 despite scoring the most runs in MLB. They’re down their top two starters, Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier, for multiple weeks due to shoulder strains. Tatsuya Imai hasn’t thrown strikes in his first three MLB starts. They’re moving to a six-man rotation despite having Mike Burrows and Lance McCullers Jr. as their two most reliable healthy starters. The Astros are around $12MM below the competitive balance tax threshold.
He’ll sign somewhere. Anywhere. Man’s gotta eat.
He can sign with the Dodgers if he’s willing to go cheap. They could use the extra arm to keep their starters fresh(er).
People would riot if Giolito signed with the Dodgers.
I don’t think so lol
Probably more of a peaceful protest, like a sit-in.
I was thinking the fans in other cities might riot if Giolito goes to the Dodgers. The pitching starved cities.
Bart – More like one critical post on Twitter.
Kumba ya Giant fans
A slap to the face and pistols at dawn
Theo – The Sox just gave him $39M, he is set for life.
@ dd theo
The guy’s made millions. Doubt he’s missing any meals.
Maybe but inflation. Especially shrinkflation. Have you seen cocoa pebble boxes lately? Just looking out for the big guy
Wait, are we talking about Lance Lynn again?
It would be interesting to know what his asking price is. It’s gotta be unrealistic for him to still be on the market, and even so teams know his injury history.
I would say even with his injury history around he should be around 10 plus incentives seems about right. He is a mid to back end guy with some upside. He is coming off injury and his recent injury history, but he is still 30 which is not young but not over the hill yet either. Let hope he is not asking for too much more than that as most teams are probably near where they want to be salary wise and the big boys that spend seem to not have the room for him.
Think at this point he has to settle for 5 plus some easy to reach incentives
@bigdaddyt
A la Scherzer. 3M base with escalators that could take him to 10M.
10 base was what I was thinking as well, and then I was reminded that he was real bad post trade deadline in 23, and that just adds to the time missed due to injury. So I feel teams are probably at 5MM or so plus incentives and he feels that’s cheap. Pure speculation, but 🤷♂️
Id assume he’s looking for Suarez-type money. Which, at this point in the season, its clear he isnt going to get.
Maybe eventually he decides to take a lesser deal around the deadline from a club making a postseason push?
Hard to say. Clearly a situation of his own making, you cant blame this one on the QO.
GaSox – I hope you’re talking about Geno Suarez!
Because Ranger got $140M ………
Fever, unfortunately, I think he’s hunting Ranger money….
He talks about models, and comparing numbers…. similar ages, eras in the middle 3s, granted gio had his surgery but most models dont ding hard for that because how common it is.
I think he sees Ranger as a good comp, and wants mid-20s per year, which is why teams hang up once they hear the demand.
FPG
It’s time for Bello to step up and pitch today and help secure the series for the Sox. For some reason I have confidence in him today to pitch well. Suarez pitched well yesterday . How long our we going to wait on Story ??? Not sure what the solution is there. . Right now he seems like an automatic out . .
GaSox – If you’re right, then he’s one crazy dude.
Absolutely no comparison between the two ….. Giolito is a year older, he missed a full season in 2024 while Ranger has made at least 22 starts every year since 2022, and Ranger’s numbers since 2021 are far better than Gio’s.
We will probably never know what he means.
cdc – hi!
Yes I believe Bello will pitch well.
We wait on Story through Memorial Day.
FPG
Well if we’re going to wait that long ,I hope we see some improvement on his .141 obp and his .213 slugging.Soon . At least Cora dropped him from the 2nd spot in the lineup. Hopefully he gets going quickly.. if I remember correctly his month of May last season was dreadful. It’s got to be tough as a veteran leader on this team to be struggling offensively and defensively so much… .
cdc – hi!
Yes you are 100% correct, actually it was June 6th when he bottomed out at .214/.259/.319/.578
Durbin should be better than he’s shown, and ABS should definitely help him.
FPg
Why do you ABS will help Durbin?? I’m a bit hesitant in him batting 2nd.
Fever- unfortunately, its the answer that makes sense. He looks at SP prices around the league, was 30 years old, its like appraising houses. Gio and his reps choose their preferred comps and adjust for what they think the differences should mean.
The explanation that teams engage for a while and walk away, they probably pre-medicals phase. But it would fit checking on current health, what he’s done to prepare and not rust, explain what happened last season verbally… then initial numbers get floated and teams see there just no bargain zone. If a guy says im looking for a 4-5 year deal, in the 20s, might consider shorter at higher aav…. and you called looking to pay below 5… you say, I think we are too far apart and break it off rather than send whaybwould be considered an insult.
cdc – hi!
Ummm …. we may not have to wait for Story much longer!
Usually what he did today signifies the beginning of a hot streak, we shall soon find out.
cdc – I’m glad you asked!
Little guys like Durbin and Altuve had always gotten screwed in the past by umpires calling pitches above the strike zone strikes because the umps didn’t shrink down the strike zone to accommodate Durbin’s and Altuve’s smaller size.
Well now with ABS, each player was measured for a custom strike zone tailored just for them. So if Durbin gets a fastball just above the zone, it will now be called a ball instead of a strike.
GaSox – I understand what you’re saying, but to simplify it ….. he performed last year as he was expected to perform when he signed with the Sox. So even accounting for inflation, wouldn’t that mean 3 years max @ $22M max?
I know what you’re gonna say, can’t go by his last contract because Bres overpaid for him. I would think Gio would accept a contract identical to the Red Sox one he had.
Fever – the problem is he ended the year injured and couldn’t help the team when they needed him most. Had he not been hurt, the Sox would knock out the Yankees.
I dont think teams believe in his health to hand out a big dollar multi year pact.
Maybe if he threw in a lackey clause, you might get a team at 3/48 taking a chance. But maybe not. FIP had him north of 4. WHIP was almost 1.3…. and his K/9 was his worst since his first full season, only a 7.5
Those arent great numbers
GaSox – I totally agree with you, which is why I’m skeptical about him looking for Ranger money.
He should throw them smoothly next time. If you throw roughly sometimes you can get injured.
Something is worth what someone else is willing to pay for it. Seems some players have a hard time understanding this.
All that money that was passed out this winter but there may be some pennies between the seat cushions for him.
There are a lot of jobs in this economy that are unfilled because employers won’t pay what it takes to fill the spots. People with degrees and college debt won’t settle for minimum wage at a plastics factory. Giolito just expects to be paid his worth. If no one meets his price, I’m sure he can afford to wait.
That’s his perogative. I hope the Cubs stay away at his price.
Flip side is, you wait too long, and the rust gets heavier and heavier….
The last guy the Cubs paid midseason was “future Hall of Famer” Craig Kimbrel. It took him two years to figure it out.
Many blue collar jobs pay significantly more than those jobs needing a college degree. Secondly, AI is replacing white collar jobs much faster than blue collar jobs. My brother works for a railroad
The Cubs would make a lot of sense for Lucas Giolito now that Cade Horton is done for the year. Giolito prefers to pitch for a contender and he’s a fan of Chicago after having spent the bulk of his MLB career with the White Sox.
It the Cubs sign Giolito now he should be ready to pitch about the same time that Matthew Boyd is expected to return later this month. Getting Justin Steele back come June or so would go a long way in improving the Cubs odds as serious postseason contenders.
Many Cubs fans would like to see one of the young Cubs starters get an opportunity but the recent Jaxon Wiggins injury at AAA Iowa and the inconsistency of Ben Brown seems like the riskier option going forward.
Rea and/or Assad are adequate until Boyd and Steele are back.
I prefer proven production and upside over “adequate” for a contending team like the Cubs. 🙂
I prefer someone not sitting on their buttocks, not moping about their money, been up to to speed the past couple of months, not costing more than Rea and Assad combined, and not getting who knows what marginal production due to rust, inconsistency, and being prone to injury. 🙃
1M plus 300k bonus for each start, 500k bonus for each quality start
#SDMadres
You can definitely do incentives based on starts. It is afterall stand on the mound, when the game starts, just walk off. You can’t however based incentives based on performance. You can incentivize number of pitches thrown but not how many strikes thrown.
Is that true? Interesting. They certainly can do bonuses based on awards
@SDMadres
Awards are allowed because they aren’t performance based.K%<BB% and stuff like that can't be incentives.
Ben Brown needs to go away. He has all the potential in the world but cant stay out of his own head. Trade him for a good OF
Sometimes guys can’t get out of their own head for whatever reason. A good catcher will pay him on the back or kick him in the keister, depends on what motivates him. But in the end, it is what is between the ears of that pitcher.
There’s some teams that would gladly take him off their hands I am sure.
Giolito probably wishing he didn’t decline that 19 million option right now. The greed this players have these days are ridiculous.
Yeah but, he has to feed his family. (Yeah. I’m joking)
I guess Giolito has enough money in the bank to really stand firm on his contract demands because those demands are not working for him.
“do you want me to throw a game in AAA”…..very nice of you Lucas. You’re unemployed and you kindly offer to throw one game in AAA. This kind of comment gives you a peek into why he’s still looking for a place to play. He’s always thought he was doing his employer a favor
Unfortunately for Giolito, it looks like he is going to have to sign on the cheap this season if he wants to play. The late season injury cost him the chance to sign a multi year deal for over 65 million. He pitched well for the Sox last year, after battling back from a couple of injury filled seasons. He is going to have to prove he can get outs again consistently if he is ever to get a multi year deal again. Would like to see the Pirates give him a shot..
According to Lucas, he isn’t worth paying for a whole seasons of starts. Interesting approach.
We’ll give you a prove it deal.
No, I want what I’m worth.
Unemployed.