Needs and Luxuries: Texas Rangers
Next up in the series, the Rangers. You can view all of the Needs and Luxuries posts here. A note about this series: I’m choosing teams randomly, and only those not currently alive in the playoffs.
C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia/Gerald Laird
1B – Frank Catalanotto
2B – Ian Kinsler
SS – Michael Young
3B – Hank Blalock
LF – David Murphy
CF – Marlon Byrd
RF – Nelson Cruz
DH – Jason Botts
SP – Kevin Millwood
SP – Vicente Padilla
SP – Brandon McCarthy
SP – Kason Gabbard
SP – Edinson Volquez
Setup: Joaquin Benoit
Closer: C.J. Wilson
Needs
Jon Daniels has quite a bit of work to do. Basically the Rangers need a first baseman, at least one corner outfielder, and probably a center fielder. Most teams need reliable starting pitching, none more than Texas.
The Rangers were 11th in OBP and 6th in slugging out of the 14 AL clubs this year. Their starters had a league worst 5.50 ERA, while the bullpen was a bright spot with a third-ranked 3.69 ERA.
Let’s start with first base. The general consensus from what I’ve read is that the Rangers’ long-term replacement for Mark Teixeira is already in-house. Double A third baseman Chris Davis had a monster year, and is expected to move to first base or even DH when he arrives in late 2008 or early 2009. For that reason, the Rangers will find a stopgap for first base – Brad Wilkerson, Ben Broussard, Dan Johnson, Catalanotto – something like that.
A slugging corner outfielder would be nice. Maybe John Mayberry becomes that guy, maybe not. Let’s face it – the Rangers probably aren’t playing for 2008, so they don’t need to go nuts with stopgaps. Murphy and Byrd on the corners would be far from ideal, but they might as well get their reps in ’08.
The Rangers seem to be itching to sign a big-name elite center fielder, with Torii Hunter at the top of the list. Such a move would breathe life into the franchise, and Hunter would help the team win in ’09. If they get a hometown discount (ie, five years, $75MM), I’m OK with it.
The Rangers badly need starting pitching, but they’ll be better next year. They’re intrigued by Gabbard and Volquez in their last two slots, and have Eric Hurley on the rise. The veterans at the front are locked in, like it or not. Millwood was much better post-hamstring injury, while Padilla is just crazy. The McCarthy/Danks swap was a head-scratcher at the time, and Danks may officially pass McCarthy next year. McCarthy averaged only 4.5 innings per start for the Rangers. Even if the trade was a bad idea, they’ll give McCarthy many chances to succeed.
It’s hard to picture this rotation being in the top half of the AL, even if you adjust for Ameriquest. But the Rangers need to see what they have rather than waste money on the Carlos Silvas of the world.
Luxuries
Hmmm. Do the Rangers have a surplus of anything?
They might want to ditch Padilla and the $24MM owed to him over the next two years, but he’s no hot commodity.
Benoit is a free agent after 2008, and he’s already 30. Even if Wilson is to become the future closer, the Rangers should stick with Benoit in that role, pump up his value, and trade him in July. Or they should seriously consider trading him this winter.
Laird may be a luxury as well, with Salty the catcher of the future. We’ll have to see how the free agents sort out and determine which teams are looking for a more defensive-minded backstop.
The Rangers really have to use 2008 to sort out what they have, rather than give precious playing time to guys who won’t be a part of the next winning team. Maybe that’s why they’ve already distanced themselves from Barry Bonds. Nor does Sammy Sosa make sense, as Botts needs a legitimate continuous shot (and don’t try to sell me on the idea of Sammy providing veteran guidance).
Random Rumors
Some random rumors to help you get through your Thursday morning…
- As you might imagine, the Rangers are keenly watching and hoping Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract. That would free up $7MM for them in each of the next three years. Rangers’ manager Ron Washington’s wish list includes a center fielder, corner outfielder, and first baseman. The Rangers have been connected to Torii Hunter quite a bit, but they’ll have plenty of competition.
- Will the exchange rate free up a bunch of money for the Blue Jays? Perhaps even enough to make a pass at A-Rod? Hey, fans can dream. Mine!
- Something I didn’t mention yesterday – Elijah Dukes is playing winter ball. The Rays still don’t seem to have any room for him in the outfield or at DH. Maybe the Marlins will get involved again? Would Kevin Gregg work?
- Gordon Wittenmyer thinks the Cubs should keep Jacque Jones for 2008, which makes sense. Wittenmyer also believes 22 year-old Felix Pie with 194 big league plate appearances, has proven conclusively that he can’t hit Major League pitching. His suggestion is to trade Pie now.
- Larry Borowsky wants the Cardinals to sign Milton Bradley.
- Jeff Sackmann recommends against Geoff Jenkins‘ $9MM option for ’08, but the decision was tougher than you think.
Braves Notes: Hampton, Lowry, Andruw
Mike Hampton makes $15MM next year, and the Braves aren’t getting any relief from the Rockies or Marlins. However, it turns out the Braves actually spread around those payments so that they’d pay out about $8MM to Hampton in each year of the deal.
This is confirmed by Bill Shanks of Scout.com, for starters. Shanks notes that the Braves owe $8.25MM to Hampton next year because of amortization. I’ve heard that David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said something similar in the comments of one of his blog posts, but it’s been buried somewhere. Bottom line, the Braves have $7MM more than we thought they did. A $95MM payroll would give Atlanta some wiggle room to add a starter.
It’s not a stretch to add Tom Glavine, with this new information. However, O’Brien thinks the Braves need more. While Dan Haren or Joe Blanton may be out of reach, Noah Lowry seems a more realistic target. The point is to find a decent young controllable arm.
O’Brien’s also got some early interested parties in Andruw Jones: the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, White Sox, Nationals, Phillies, and Mets. Seems like the idea of moving Beltran to right field has been discussed within the Mets organization. The Dodgers, I imagine, would shift Juan Pierre to left field.
Rangers To Pass On Bonds?
Here’s an MLB.com article from T.R. Sullivan that I’m just getting around to discussing (hat tip to Joe Siegler of Rangerfans.com).
Sullivan’s article mainly discusses the possibility of bringing Sammy Sosa back as a platoon designated hitter. Not a terrible idea if Sosa is limited to facing southpaws and perhaps Jose Lima. But here’s an interesting throwaway line in the article:
Club officials have made it clear they will not be interested in pursuing Barry Bonds as a free agent.
You may recall that the Rangers got some press in June as the "mystery team" that had pursued Bonds the previous winter. Jon Daniels confirmed the discussions but said no offer was made. In browsing that USA Today article again, I also noticed that Bonds apparently would’ve retired if he didn’t receive an offer of at least $10MM. So that might be his bare minimum this winter.
So far the Rangers and Tigers have already distanced themselves from Bonds.
Rumors and Questions
If Cubs make the playoffs, they will be glad not to see the Marlins in the postseason. After last night’s defeat, the Cubs haven’t beaten the Fish since April… of 2006.
Lots of buzz today, so here are some Rumors and Questions on the day:
- Florida Marlins Fans, it may be disheartening for you, both of you, to know that David Hyde (with some help from Bill Murray) believes as though either Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle Willis will indeed be dealt this offseason. Tim crunched the numbers and thinks they should shed Willis’ contract. If I had to choose, I’d agree with Mr. Hyde (not Dr. Jekyll) and wave goodbye to Miggy before the D-Train rolls out. Cabrera is indisputably elite and could net a Hanley Ramirez or two. Meanwhile, Dontrelle’s value is at an all time low. Who would you deal?
- Speaking of former Marlins, Buster Olney thinks the Tigers will re-sign Todd Jones. When asked who will close for the Tigers next year, Manager Jim Leyland responded with a definitive "don’t know". Well, maybe he’s getting forgetful in his old age, but we all know who: Joel Zumaya. But is he ready? Chris McKosky of the Detroit News isn’t sure. What do you think? If only he could lay off that Guitar Hero…
- The Rangers and the Twins have each expressed interest in both Torii Hunter and, who else, Barry Bonds. Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire weighs in positively on Bonds, while Joe Christensen says chances are slim but don’t rule it out. Shooter Charley Walters says the Twins will try to re-sign Hunter. But Hunter is from outside Arlington, Texas and when asked if he’s thought a little about going home, he told reporters "I haven’t thought about it a little bit. I’ve thought about it a lot a bit." Meanwhile, the Rangers players say "Thumbs up!" to Bonds. I think the Rangers are a natural fit for both of these vets.
- Also, Ken Rosenthal’s latest video on Foxsports.com breaks down the fates of Managers-Across-The-League. Interestingly, he begins by praising Joe Torre for doing maybe his best job ever, and then notes how if the Yankees stumble in the postseason he might not be back…
Posted by: Nat Boyle
More On Bonds
All the sportswriters have had a chance to weigh in on possible destinations for Barry Bonds in 2008. Here’s a summary.
- Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus seems the Padres and A’s as the top two possibilities.
- Fielding guru John Dewan rates Bonds’ defense ahead of Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, and Pat Burrell this year. He’s still bad, but maybe we shouldn’t rule out the NL after all.
- Bruce Jenkins says there’s no market but seems to consider Seattle a possibility. Interesting note: Jenkins also mentions that Bonds cleared waivers in August.
- Jack Curry of the New York Times likes the Angels, A’s, and Rangers.
- Before we start penciling Bonds into the Oakland lineup, Susan Slusser reminds us that Jack Cust is effective and cheap as the team’s DH.
- Rangers manager Ron Washington says he would’ve liked having Bonds on his team this year. However, he sees the A’s as the favorite.
- Kevin Kernan of the New York Post thinks this puts the Giants in the A-Rod sweepstakes. Would Rodriguez want to join a team that is basically rebuilding?
Torii Hunter To Texas Musings
The Rangers are the early favorite to sign 32 year-old center fielder Torii Hunter for several reasons.
First off, Hunter and his family live just 47 miles away from The Ballpark In Arlington. Sometimes the whole hometown team thing is overrated when predicting where free agents will land, but Hunter has basically said that the Rangers have an advantage and it’s what his family wants.
Second, the Rangers have vacancy. Brad Wilkerson will be gone and Kenny Lofton already is. Sammy Sosa could assume a lesser role or none at all. The Rangers do have some interesting internal candidates for center field in Marlon Byrd and David Murphy, but they might be better suited as fourth outfielders.
Third, the Rangers can probably afford Hunter even with his bare minimum 5/75 demand. My back of the napkin math has the net change to payroll as about $13MM off the books. There are small gains for Millwood, Padilla, Blalock, Catalanotto, and arbitration-eligible guys, but good money off the books for Teixeira, Gagne, Wilkerson, Lofton, and Sosa. The Rangers have held at a $68MM Opening Day payroll for the last two seasons but Tom Hicks has had it up past $100MM before.
So with Hunter the Rangers could have a $70MM payroll (or less if they backload his contract). But it gets better: if Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract, the Rangers gain $8.1MM in ’08, $7.1MM in ’09, and $6.1MM in ’10. It’s certainly easier to envision Hunter in a Rangers uniform if A-Rod opts out.
Rangers To Shop Vicente Padilla?
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News asks whether Vicente Padilla‘s start today against the Twins will be his last as a Ranger. He highlights Padilla’s inability to go deep into games as well as his questionable behavior off the field. He also notes that Padilla’s beaning and subsequent brawl with Nick Swisher and the A’s didn’t sit well with teammates:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Hank Blalock missed the Rangers’ next game with soreness incurred from being at the bottom of the pile trying to break up the fight, a fight which Padilla crawled away from after the benches cleared.
Grant suggests the Rangers try to swap Padilla and his remaining two years, $24.75MM for a bad contract like Jose Contreras or Carl Pavano or even just cut him and pay the money.
To all this I say: the Rangers knew what they were getting into. Here’s what we knew about Padilla before the Rangers signed him in December of last year: headhunter, injury and conditioning problems, alcohol issues, doesn’t speak to the media. If any of those things bothered the Rangers they shouldn’t have locked him up for 3/33. These things didn’t just surface for the first time this year. Note that I am not dogging him for not speaking to the media – he may just be self-conscious having begun English lessons in 2000.
I thought Padilla was a relative bargain at three years guaranteed instead of four. Just one year into the deal, he’s being viewed as a burden by Texas. One interesting note: Padilla came up as a closer; maybe some team would like to try him in that role if the Rangers eat some salary. It could keep him healthy.
Failed Trades
Let’s take a look at some deals that almost happened yesterday.
Kyle Farnsworth for Bob Wickman. This would’ve been fun, reunions with former teams for both players. However, the Braves wanted the Yankees to pick up all of Farnsworth’s salary, apparently. Brian Cashman didn’t want to make him go away that badly, and Wickman would probably be a nonfactor back in the AL.
Mariners acquire Mark Loretta. Eh. Let’s not overstate the abilities of Loretta. It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him.
Rockies send Jeff Baker and others to Tampa Bay for Dan Wheeler. We can’t really evaluate this one without knowing who else would’ve been involved. And the Rays don’t really have a place to play Baker; they’re already squeezed finding playing time for Jonny Gomes. If Rocco Baldelli ever gets healthy they’ll really have a pickle. I mentioned in a recent interview at D-Rays Bay – Wheeler would probably be one of the ten best relievers available if he was a free agent after the season. The Rays can pump up his value and get a promising young pitcher next year, as the Royals did with Octavio Dotel.
Brewers send Tony Gwynn Jr., Zach Jackson, and another minor league for Eric Gagne. This could’ve been the difference-maker that Scott Linebrink ain’t in a tight NL Central race. But it doesn’t seem like Doug Melvin got a chance to counter the Red Sox offer, so you can’t really fault him.
Red Sox send Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen to White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Well, there has to be some statistical way to evaluate whether this pair beats two draft picks. You’d have to know the attrition rates of first/second rounders, and get some scouts on Pena and Hansen to see if they can ever reach their potential. If I was the Kenny Williams I probably would’ve made the deal. I think Pena gets docked in value from where he was two years ago, but still has pretty much the same upside if you manage him right. Who knows, maybe Williams will go after Pena again this winter.
Braves Announce Teixeira Deal
The Rangers received even more than anticipated for first baseman Mark Teixeira and reliever Ron Mahay. We knew they were getting Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison. But there’s now a fifth prospect going to Texas: southpaw Beau Jones.
Jones throws in the low 90s with a sharp curveball; he’s been compared to Kyle Davies. The 21 year-old Jones was recently promoted to High A Myrtle Beach.
Meanwhile, Dan Lewis of Armchair GM weighs in on John Schuerholz’s many dealings.