Olney: Rangers Closing In On Padilla
Just noticed a nugget from Buster Olney’s blog yesterday morning:
"The Rangers lost out on Adam Eaton; I’m hearing that they are closing in on a deal to re-sign Vicente Padilla."
If true, this is a positive for Texas. Padilla is a much better choice and will probably require one year and a few million more annually. The Jays, Mets, and Cubs may be on the outskirts depending on where various free agents fall.
Lee, Williams, Catalanotto, Barajas, and Roberts
Tim sends his best from Cancun and wishes everyone was with him.
Not!
They are still trying to find their honeymoon hotel so he’s not quite sure when he’ll be back. And, no, he didn’t send any Cancun beach shots. Dang..
Speaking about vacations, how about the Astros signing Lee at $100m/6? Wow. My take is this – the power starved Astros obviously felt they were one player away and Lee happened to be available. He’ll probably hit 40 home runs despite all the talk about his lack of power after April last year. Don’t forget Minute Maid is full of hot air.
The Astros also jumped on Woody Williams at $12.5/2. I suppose this is a message to Astros fans that Pupura doesn’t expect the Rocket to resign. Just a guess. At 40-years old, Williams is a huge risk of course.
The Rangers signed Frank Catalanotto to a $13.5m/3 year deal today too. Dan Szymborwski at the Baseball Think Factory believes it is a solid deal for the Rangers, and I agree.
MLBTR’s reader eeleye99 was kind enough to offer up that the Blue Jays are reportedly ready to sign Rod Barajas as their every day receiver around $6m/2. Nice catch eeleye99 – thanks.
Another MLBTR reader – Rayman, found that Dave Roberts is reportedly picking the Giants over the Brewers. Kudo’s for the find Rayman.
At The Plate has started compiling all the teams top 10 prospects by publication. They have done a great job of this for several years now. You might want to bookmark the site.
Bucco Blog has indicated that the most sought out pitcher on the Pirates staff this winter has been southpaw Tom Gorzelanny. There have been rumors that the Braves wanted Gorzelanny and Maholm for LaRoche, and today Tracy Ringolsby, the award winning columnist of the Rocky Mountain News, has indicated that a Rockies Brad Hawpe trade has been discussed with the Pirates who will only give up Maholm. I assume they also want Gorzelanny in any package. I love Tracy’s writing – the guy is flat out kewl.
Interestingly, Ringolsby is also reporting in that article that agents are complaining that the Rockies didn’t offer enough to Francis in his latest $13.5/4 year deal. I suppose the agents had to find a way to say the "C" word this year, despite the soaring value of contracts so far.
Have you ever read the The Carbolic Smoke Ball blog? OMG – it is Hilllll ar ious.
By Jake at Bucco Blog
Frank Catalanotto signs with Rangers
Three years for $13 million. Not crazy in this market, not crazy at all. The key to Catalanotto is that he is just about worthless versus lefties. He managed a great .300/.376/.439 in 432 ABs last year for Toronto, but he was savagely platooned: only 38 of those ABs were against lefties. That’s smart of John Gibbons: only about 10% of Cat’s ABs in the last six years have been against southpaws, and he’s scratched out a .243/.327/.346 line vs. LHP in that time.
With those splits, Catalanotto would be a nice platoon partner for Nelson Cruz, but that still leaves the Rangers two outfielders short. Brian Anderson would be a nice fit in center, but that still leaves the outfield rather thin; a recovered Brad Wilkerson, Victor Diaz, and Freddy Guzman are other in-house options. Only Wilkerson even has a shot at providing league-average offense, and that assume his skills come back with his health. Then again, if any team can manage a weak offensive outfield, it’s the one with Mark Teixiera, Hank Blalock, and Michael Young in the infield.
By Jeff Sackmann
Kenny Williams, Dealmaker
Either Ken Williams is keeping busy at the GM meetings, or the reporters covering the Sox have very fertile imaginations. I’m sure the truth is somewhere in between. In addition to the Andruw Jones deal I mentioned in the previous post, here’s a roundup of possible White Sox moves:
Chris De Luca reports on a possible Freddy Garcia / Ervin Santana swap. Oddly enough, his sources say that the "package" would be built around Santana. Garcia might be a better pitcher right now, but just barely: last year, Garcia was worth 15 win shares, while Santana was worth 13. Santana’s younger, and is under the Angels control for four more years. Bill Stoneman couldn’t covet Garcia that much, could he? South Side Sox chimes in on the improbability of that deal.
De Luca also repeats the thinking that Williams could bring Aaron Rowand back, especially if the Phillies land Alfonso Soriano.
Phil Rogers has a flurry of rumors, some of the recycled variety. He keeps stoking the flames of Javier Vazquez-to-the-Mets, and suggests there’s the makings of a "monster deal" between the Sox and Rangers with Vazquez or Mark Buerhle headed to Texas. Rogers is clearly speculating, but if his source is correct that John Danks is in play, there’s certainly the possibility of something getting done.
By Jeff Sackmann
Braves Rumors
Talking Chop has a nice roundup of trade talks that the Braves could be exploring.
First, the White Sox are interested in Andruw Jones. That seems like a longshot because Andruw has a no-trade and the White Sox hate Scott Boras, but who knows, maybe an extension would get that done. Trading for Jones would make Brian Anderson expendable, and Anderson seems to me like Bobby Cox’s kind of player–young, great defense, could improve at the plate. Maybe Anderson and one of Chicago’s starters would get that deal done.
Second, the Rangers could be looking at Braves pitching. The Rangers could have all sorts of holes depending on how many of their free agents they are able to keep, especially in the rotation. They don’t match up nearly so well with the Braves–this article suggests the Braves would be looking for bullpen help in a deal like that, but after trading away Francisco Cordero last season, the Rangers wouldn’t appear to have the depth to survive losing Akinori Otsuka.
In related news, Vicente Padilla‘s agent doesn’t expect him to sign immediately, but notes that the Rangers are the most interested. I’m not surprised–if both Padilla and Adam Eaton went elsewhere, Jon Daniels would be forced to do a lot of shopping in a very, very expensive store.
By Jeff Sackmann
Rangers Covet Brian Anderson?
Phil Rogers, down with the GMs in Florida, uncovered a trade possibility of White Sox center fielder Brian Anderson for Rangers reliever Nick Masset.
Anderson will turn 25 before next season. The former first rounder had a rough first year offensively for the Sox, but he still has the potential to be a slightly above average CF package.
Masset will also be 25 next season. A converted starter, he’s pitching well in the Mexican Winter League.
Rangers Bid $30MM For Matsuzaka?
Here we finally have a decent source giving us some Daisuke Matsuzaka info. Jan Hubbard of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram has a baseball official indicating something close to a $30MM bid. Of the course, the language in the article uses plenty of qualifiers like "may" and "have a chance." Can’t blame ’em for hedging their bets a little.
We’ve also got a video in which Boston Globe sportswriter Jackie MacMullan says that Matsuzaka is "going to go out west to the Angels by all accounts." Not to question her info, but in watching the video is appeared that she did not know Matsuzaka’s name. I ran this one by my Angels source and even he could not confirm whether the Halos made a bid. It was a stealth process.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a source putting two different teams over a $20MM bid.
Mike Plugh is all over the developing story at the Matsuzaka Watch.
Zito Interested In Rangers?
Add the Rangers to the list of possible destinations for Barry Zito, if Jon Daniels is interested in bidding. We should know whether he won the Matsuzaka bid soon enough.
Zito is fond of new Rangers skipper Ron Washington, and officially added the club to his list this afternoon. The Rangers are nearly a lock to add a top tier starter this offseason, and Zito is as good of a five or six-year bet as they’ll find.
While I have you, let me recommend Ken Rosenthal’s latest. His most intriguing tidbit to me is the possibility of J.D. Drew opting out of his contract (he’s slated to make $33MM over the next three seasons). I’m pretty confident Drew could beat that, but not by a huge amount.
2007 Texas Rangers
Had some requests for a 2007 team outlook on the Rangers.
Jon Daniels’s contract obligations:
C – Gerald Laird – $0.332MM
C –
1B – Mark Teixeira – $9MM
2B – Ian Kinsler – $0.327MM
SS – Michael Young – $3.5MM
3B – Hank Blalock – $4.75MM
IF – Joaquin Arias – $0.327MM
IF – Drew Meyer – $0.33MM
LF – Brad Wilkerson – $3.9MM
CF –
RF – Nelson Cruz – $0.33MM
OF – Victor Diaz – $0.335MM
OF – Freddy Guzman – $0.33MM
DH – Jason Botts – $0.328MM
SP – Kevin Millwood – $7.5MM
SP – Robinson Tejeda – $0.33MM
SP – Kameron Loe – $0.34877MM
SP – John Koronka – $0.329MM
SP – Edinson Volquez – $0.329MM
SP – John Rheinecker – $0.33MM
SP – John Danks – $0.33MM
SP – Thomas Diamond – $0.33MM
SP – Daniel Haigwood – $0.33MM
SP – Eric Hurley – $0.33MM
RP – Akinori Otsuka – $1.75MM
RP – Ron Mahay – $1MM
RP – Joaquin Benoit – $0.775MM
RP – Frank Francisco – $0.3315MM
RP – C.J. Wilson – $0.331MM
RP – Scott Feldman – $0.329MM
RP – Rick Bauer – $0.33MM
RP – Wes Littleton – $0.33MM
RP – Josh Rupe – $0.328MM
Buyouts and departed players
C – Miguel Ojeda – $0.025MM
3B – Alex Rodriguez – $7MM
If the 2007 payroll is to include the money for A-Rod and raises for Otsuka and others, the team has between $40MM and $45MM committed. They entered 2006 with a $68MM payroll. This is a team with tons of free agents; the Rangers will look very different in 2007. Forget all this manager talk though: let’s get down to the important stuff.
At catcher: do you bring Rod Barajas back, or just let Laird start and find a backup for him? Laird looked lost at the plate as a full-timer in September, but otherwise hit quite well for his position. I think you let Barajas go and use Laird as the starter. This team has needs, and the need for a catcher isn’t at the top of the list. That said, perhaps a flexible solution like Mike Piazza would help. Piazza could catch 70 or 80 games and spend the rest of the time at DH.
The Rangers are set with Mark Teixeira, who proved his first half an anomaly with a .291/.394/.604 line after the break. The second half surge means Tex’s trade value should remain huge. As a Scott Boras client, he makes quite a bit of money for someone with his service time. Here’s an idea: trade Teixeira to the Pirates for pitching. The Paul Maholm/Mike Gonzalez proposal seems a little weak; substitute Ian Snell for Maholm and you might have something.
The Pirates wouldn’t be the only team coveting Teixeira entering his age 27 season. How about the Orioles, Tigers, Astros, Dodgers, or Giants? If Tex really does hit the market, you have to figure some top shelf young talent would be offered from some of these clubs.
The middle infield seems locked in, though Young could be the trade bait instead of Teixeira. More likely, the team tries to find something decent for Hank Blalock and re-signs Mark DeRosa to hold down 3B. Blalock slugged just .401 this season, a career worst. That included an awful second half, but his shoulder was bothering him and he had surgery this earlier this month. Blalock will be 26 next year and has two years before free agency; he’s marketable. He might have to finish his rehab first though.
If you think the infield is interesting, consider the outfield. It’s just a mess. The team wants to retain Gary Matthews Jr. as the center fielder, but this could be the 32 year-old’s last chance to test the market. Brad Wilkerson bombed during his first year as a Ranger, but had shoulder surgery in August. He could be cut loose, or he could come back and get $4MM+ in arbitration. I assume he’d play left field in that case. Wilkerson is a passable CF as well. The Rangers may want to see what happens with him in ’07 as an attempt to redeem the Soriano trade a bit.
Nelson Cruz may be too old for prospect status, but he’s a fair gamble in right field. He didn’t hit much with the Rangers but posted a .906 OPS in Triple A this year. He probably deserves a shot, especially if Wilkerson and Matthews are retained.
The DH spot is wide open, with Botts the frontrunner if no one is acquired. Botts broke a bone in his hand in August. Before that, he wasn’t hitting enough to maintain a role as the regular DH. He’s similar to Cruz in that he’s figured out Triple A and has a good chance to become a useful regular for a few years.
Otherwise, Daniels could go a million ways with this vacancy. He could go after the best free agent hitter, Barry Bonds. He could offer Carlos Lee a fat five-year deal to make him a Ranger fixture (he’d play left in ’07, but DH soon enough). He could chase Frank Thomas, Nomar Garciaparra, Dmitri Young, Moises Alou, David Dellucci, Cliff Floyd, or Gary Sheffield. Many of those options could bolster an already strong offense.
The area that needs the most work, of course, is the pitching rotation. Millwood and Tejeda are locked in, leaving three vacancies. One of those three spots could go to young talent like Danks, Hurley, Diamond, or Volquez. Even so, Daniels needs to get two starters to have a real rotation.
One of the Big Three – Zito, Schmidt, or Matsuzaka – has to end up a Ranger. The team has scouted Matsuzaka, and he’s by far the best choice. The local options both have their flaws; Matsuzaka’s only downside is that he’s a Major League rookie. I’d take that risk compared to Zito’s mediocrity or Schmidt’s age. If Daniels can get Matsuzaka signed, he can throw down some additional cash for the likes of Randy Wolf, Gil Meche, Mark Mulder, or Ted Lilly. Or he could hold on to Adam Eaton or Vicente Padilla. Padilla had a solid if not spectacular year, and his acquisition stands in great contrast to Eaton’s (Chris Young would look awfully nice slotted as the #2 starter).
The bullpen actually did OK this year, so those guys will get their raises and the group should remain mostly intact. There’s been some Kerry Wood chatter, but Wood has said he wants to remain a Cub.
After big seasons by Alfonso Soriano and Chris Young, some of the shine came off kid GM Jon Daniels. To be fair, the Soriano deal only looks bad in hindsight. On the positive side, he did acquire Tejeda, Padilla, Cruz, and Otsuka in 2006. This offseason, Daniels will have his own manager, free cash, and the chance to create the Texas Rangers squad he wants.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Gary Matthews Jr.
The Rangers would like to retain free agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., but competition could be fierce if he hits the market. It’s important to remember that Sarge Jr. will be entering his age 32 season in 2007. Perhaps his athleticism will help him age better.
While Matthews’s .372 OBP is a career high, you’ll notice that it’s entirely batting average driven. He hasn’t improved his walk rate at all this season. The improvement in batting average is tied to more frequent contact – he’s up to 84% in that department. He’s also got a career high SLG. The increase can be attributed to doubles and triples, as Matthews’s flyball percentage and home runs per flyball have not changed. It stands to reason that he’ll regress to something near .270/.330/.440 in 2007.
Matthews has been abandoned by the Padres (twice), Cubs, Pirates, Orioles (twice), Braves, and Mets. He’s dealt with all kinds of injuries in the past few years: ribcage strain, hamstring strain, calf strain, sliced thumb from slicing a bagel, and wrist tendinitis.
Despite all this, I’m not down on Matthews as a free agent signing. The average center fielder hits about .270/.335/.425 and plays, well, average defense. Matthews should be able to hit a little better than that and play plus defense. Sure, he’ll decline from his career season. But CFs like Matthews don’t grow on trees. Would you rather have the defense of Dave Roberts out there?
Lately the possibility has been raised of the Mariners signing Matthews. This would be an odd signing, given the Mariners’ decent outfield arrangement and dire need for starting pitching.
Should the Rangers fail to retain Matthews, both Chicago teams, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rockies could all be interested. I’d be impressed if any team could get him for fewer than three years. He made $2.4MM this year, but could command $7-8MM annually on the open market.