Heyman On Strasburg, D’Backs, Penny
Jon Heyman of SI.com anticipates some memorable negotiations between the Nationals, Scott Boras and Stephen Strasburg. Here's what Heyman heard about Strasburg along with the rest of his rumors:
- Boras is still expected to demand $50MM for Strasburg.
- Think that's a lot? Some think Strasburg would command $100MM as a free agent.
- Executives generally guess he'll end up signing for more than $20MM, but not by much.
- One NL exec said he expects the deal to reach $30MM.
- Strasburg could always pitch in Japan or for an independent team if he doesn't sign, but Heyman imagines he'd much rather join a major league franchise immediately.
- The Pirates could draft catcher Tony Sanchez with the fourth pick.
- The D'Backs could deal Chad Qualls and Tony Pena at the deadline.
- Boston seems "in a hurry" to deal Brad Penny.
- One Red Sox person was not impressed by what he saw from Jeff Francoeur.
- It's probably too early for the Rangers to release Vicente Padilla.
Draft Updates: Strasburg, Nats, Crow
With tomorrow's draft approaching fast let's take a look at some recent rumors and analysis…
- MLB.com's Lisa Winston reports that former super prospect Ben McDonald is impressed by Stephen Strasburg's stuff and poise.
- David Price told Danny Knobler of CBS Sports that Strasburg's stuff is better than his. Like Joe Maddon, Price believes the minors can be helpful and doesn't advocate rushing Strasburg into a big league rotation.
- Chico Harlan of the Washington Post interviewed acting GM Mike Rizzo about the draft and heard that signability won't be a factor for the Nats with their 10th pick, even though they get nothing if they fail to sign the player they choose. After saying for weeks that Strasburg is his choice with the first pick in the draft, Rizzo doesn't confirm it this time.
- Pete McElroy of MASN.com hears that the Nats will take Chad Jenkins, a big college righty, with their 10th pick if he's available.
- Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that the Pirates could use the $1.3MM they saved by trading Nate McLouth to sign the player they draft fourth overall. Aaron Crow, who's looking for $4MM, could be an option for Pittsburgh.
- Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Crow's looking forward to tomorrow's draft after waiting a year.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan says prospects can be over-hyped to the point that we encounter "an uncomfortable reality" when they struggle.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo reports that Kyle Gibson and Tanner Scheppers could fall lower than originally expected because of injury concerns. Other players, like Jacob Turner, could fall because they're expected to demand large bonuses.
- Follow the draft on Twitter as it unfolds: @mlbtraderumors and @MLBDraft.
Red Sox Inquired On Cabrera, Aren’t Interested
Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald reports that the Red Sox aren't interested in bringing Orlando Cabrera back to Boston, though they did inquire about the shortstop. McAdam's sources say the Red Sox would have to give up too much "in terms of his remaining salary and prospects." Instead, they're content to play Nick Green and Julio Lugo until Jed Lowrie returns. One team apparently determined that Cabrera, a two-time Gold Glover, is the worst defensive shortstop in the American League.
Red Sox Show Interest In Orlando Cabrera
According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Red Sox have "had conversations" with the A's about shortstop Orlando Cabrera, who was Boston's shortstop on their 2004 World Series club. Cabrera is hitting just .235/.286/.303 after signing a one year, $4MM contract this offseason. He will receive a $250,000 bonus if traded. Boston shortstops have hit .235-.311-.325 this season.
Olney also says the Red Sox have also talked to the Pirates about Jack Wilson, but says the two teams don't match up well because "the Red Sox probably would prefer to keep some financial flexibility in the event that they need to acquire a DH type" in case David Ortiz doesn't turn it around. Wilson is still owed close to $6MM this season.
Odds & Ends: Phillies, Moore, Draft
Three years ago today, four current big leaguers were selected on day two of the 2006 MLB Draft: Derek Holland of the Rangers, Daniel Murphy of the Mets, David Robertson of the Yankees, and Clay Zavada of the Diamondbacks. Here's some lazy Sunday afternoon linkage for you.
- Sam Mellinger tweets that current Royals' and ex-Phillies' executive Mike Arbuckle says that his biggest regret is drafting Reggie Taylor over Roy Halladay in the first round of the 1995 Draft. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Arbuckle isn't alone with that sentiment.
- Jim Salisbury runs through the Phillies' trade chips.
- Royals' GM Dayton Moore says that his team isn't in need of any major changes right now, via Bob Dutton. “We are constantly evaluating our internal options to improve our team, and specifically our offense. And we’re always looking for opportunities to improve our team through trades or the waiver wire, and we’ll always be aggressive in trying to do that. But I’m confident that we will begin to perform better and play as we did in the first 30 games of the year. That’s all I can focus on.”
- Meanwhile, Rany Jazayerli suggests a move for the Royals: trade for Jeff Francoeur. His reasoning: buy low on someone with gobs of talent.
- Texas high school outfielder Randal Grichuk made a name for himself by hitting a few homers during a predraft workout at Busch Stadium, according to Derrick Goold.
- Ross Ohlendorf's thesis shows that the rate of return of the top 100 picks from the 1989-2003 drafts was about 60%.
Huntington On Draft
Pirates GM Neal Huntington answered fan questions about his draft procedure and approach on MLB.com today. It's a decent read. Said Huntington in one response,
Huntington added that this years draft class "is not nearly as strong" as last year, with less "premium talent", which Huntington explains are "present and future abilities to allow evaluators to project them to develop into All-Star caliber players."
Huntingon also added that what happened with Pedro Alvarez won't dissuade them from pursuing Scott Boras' clients.
Odds & Ends: Zambrano, McLouth, Indians
On this day in MLBTR history: In '08 the Dodgers picked up former ROY Angel Berroa from the Royals, while the Rangers, in a valuable lesson of history repeating itself, DFA'd Sidney Ponson.
A hearty helping of links, cooked up and served (semi-) fresh:
- Paul Sullivan at the Chicago Tribune got Lou Piniella's take on Carlos Zambrano's prophecy of retirement at the end of his current contract: "I like it. We'll see how he feels next week."
- In an open letter to fans, Pirates GM Neal Huntington outlines his reasons for dealing Nate McLouth. This comes on the heels of some hefty criticism from fans, as reported by Laura Keeley at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Paul Hoynes at the Cleveland Plain-Dealer notes that Indians GM Mark Shapiro has been working the phones lately as the team's injuries mount.
Orioles Considering Sano?
The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec reports that the Orioles invited 16-year-old phenom Miguel Angel Sano to a workout at their baseball academy in the Dominican Republic yesterday. Orioles Director of Player Development David Stocksill came out of the tryout "impressed."
Sano has been linked most often to the Pirates, who are rumored to be offering as much as $4MM to obtain the coveted shortstop prospect when international free agents are able to sign this July 2nd. Zrebiec notes that the Orioles have never dropped more than $1MM to acquire an international free agent.
Olney on Reyes, McLouth, Holliday
ESPN.com's Buster Olney wonders if the currently injured Jose Reyes has already peaked, quoting a scout who says "I don't see a lot of evolution there … Jimmy Rollins struggled early in his career, but then he just kept getting better and better, and I'm not really seeing that in Reyes." Olney likens the situation to Mark Prior's, who seemingly held the Cubs hostage with his potential. Reyes will turn just 26 next week, but Olney says that going forward "the Mets should not assume that Reyes is going to be an unmovable foundation piece," however he is not advocating a trade just yet.
Here's the rest of Olney's rumors:
- Olney heard that the Pirates were concerned about Nate McLouth's defensive abilities, so they moved him now before his trade value diminished.
- Billy Beane will soon have to make a decision about whether or not he should trade Matt Holliday, because other teams will start inquiring soon.
- Olney speculates that the Cardinals could be interested in Holliday, which would satisfy Tony LaRussa's desire for a big bat. He also says that Cards' prospect Brett Wallace would be a good fit for Oakland, but that seems like a hefty price for just three or four months of Holliday.
Who Goes In A Pittsburgh Firesale?
With Nate McLouth now playing in Atlanta, a number of still-Pirates vented about the decision. Coincidentally, the two players quoted, Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche, are likely to be prime targets for Pittsburgh to deal.
Sanchez is a middle infielder having a typical Freddy Sanchez season: .321/.359/.488, with below-average defense at second base. A number of teams should be interested in Sanchez, and in his age-31 season, Sanchez isn't likely to be part of the next great Pirates' team. He's scheduled to make $6.1MM in 2009, with an $8MM option for 2010 that vests if he reaches 635 plate appearances.
As for LaRoche, a 29-year-old who can hit pretty well and play first base, he's also likely to be shown the door. LaRoche is making $7.05MM in 2009, and teams that acquire him have the advantage of getting the second-half LaRoche. LaRoche is a career .776 OPS hitter in the first half, but .907 OPS in the second half.
While he didn't vent in the linked article, Jack Wilson could also be on the move. Not only does he make $7.25MM, he's also in his age-31 season. However, his .264/.291/.380 line — even with solid defense at shortstop — means the haul Pittsburgh gets for Wilson could be limited.