When To Expect Stephen Strasburg
It's easy to forget just how quickly Stephen Strasburg has risen through the minor leagues. This time last year, he hadn't even been drafted; one record setting contract and seven minor league appearances later, it's safe to say he's ready for the major leagues.
Before tonight's start, he had combined for a 1.29 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 across the upper minors. Tonight he outdid himself, no-hitting the Norfolk Tides through six innings. Strasburg added seven strikeouts and walked one batter, just the third baserunner he has allowed in 12 Triple A innings.
So when can Nationals fans expect Strasburg to deliver his first major league pitch? Nationals president Stan Kasten told MLB.com's Bill Ladson that it will be "soon," without being any more specific. A glance at the Syracuse Chiefs' schedule shows that Strasburg will likely start on the 17th, the 22nd and the 27th of May.
That would line Strasburg up for a June 1st start. If the Nationals keep him in the minors for three more May starts, they can call him to the majors on June 1st. That would almost certainly be late enough to prevent Strasburg from becoming a Super Two player and earning millions more through arbitration. However, calling Strasburg up in May would give him a chance at Super Two status.
In theory, the Nationals could make money by calling their phenom up. As USA Today's Mel Antonen reported this week, attendance figures and merchandise sales have spiked wherever Strasburg has pitched. This could happen in Washington, too, but the Nationals have just five home dates remaining in May, and they would only be able to start Strasburg once on their upcoming homestand.
It seems much more likely that the Nationals will keep Strasburg in the minors for three more starts, save themselves a few million and call on the phenom to face the Astros in Houston June 1st.
Yankees Sign Tim Redding
Tim Redding officially signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (via Twitter). The Dodgers and a Korean team also expressed interest in Redding, who was released by the Rockies this morning.
Redding, 32, had been pitching at Triple A in the Rockies organization. The righty had a 4.32 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 25 innings. He posted a 5.10 ERA in 120 innings for the Mets last year, with 5.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.
Back in 2005, Redding started one game for the Yankees. It didn't go well for anyone but the Red Sox hitters Redding faced; he allowed four walks, four hits and six runs in his lone inning in Yankee pinstripes.
Derek Holland On Track For Super Two Status
When Derek Holland makes his 2010 debut tonight, his major league service time starts piling up once again. If Holland stays in the majors until the end of this season, he has a good chance at becoming a Super Two player after next year. That means he would go to arbitration four times instead of three and would likely make millions more than he otherwise would.
Here's how it breaks down: Holland has 170 days of service time now. He can pile up 145 more days of service time this year if the Rangers keep him in the majors all season. That would leave Holland with 1.143 years of service time after this season. With another full year in the majors, he could have 2.143 years of service time after 2011, which be enough for Super Two status.
Holland's Super Two status depends on two things: the time he spends on the roster this year and the time he spends on it next year. If he doesn't see the minors again, he'll go to arbitration four times. So is he ready for the majors? The stats suggest he is. In 38.2 innings at Triple A, the 23-year-old lefty has a 0.93 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9.
Examining Milwaukee’s Rotation
When the Brewers effectively replaced starters Manny Parra and Braden Looper with Randy Wolf and Doug Davis this offseason, the rotation seemed better-positioned to carry the team than it was last year, when Brewers pitching was largely disappointing.
Their starters posted a 5.37 ERA a year ago and their pitching staff as a whole allowed more runs than every NL club except the Nationals. GM Doug Melvin discussed trading for Kevin Correia, Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, Brian Bannister and others when the team was in contention last summer. The Brewers even claimed Davis, but they never made a major move.
This year the Brewers are among the worst teams in the National League in runs allowed (14th) and home runs allowed (15th). Their bullpen has been disappointing, but the starters have done better than last year, combining for a 4.70 ERA.
Yovani Gallardo has been fantastic so far, with a 3.07 ERA and 11.0 K/9. Wolf's ERA is below 4.00, but he's walking significantly more batters than he did with the Dodgers last year. Like Wolf, Dave Bush has an ERA around 4.00, but is walking far more batters than usual. Meanwhile, hitters are batting .415 on balls they put in play off of Davis. That figure should drop and drag Davis' 7.56 ERA down along with it. Rounding out the rotation, Chris Narveson pitched well against the D'Backs on Sunday, but he is no sure thing.
The Brewers have some options within the organization should their current starters falter. Carlos Villanueva has experience starting and this year he's throwing harder than ever. Villanueva, the team's pitcher of the month in April, is striking out more than a batter per inning. John Axford, ranked 23rd among Brewers prospects by Baseball America before the season, is pitching well in Triple A and could be called upon to replace Villanueva in the 'pen.
The Brewers have a solid but unremarkable rotation at this point, though they're surely hoping to see Wolf and Bush limit their free passes. We can expect Davis to improve and Villanueva could contribute, so the Brewers don't appear as desperate to acquire arms as they were a year ago. It may all be a moot point. If Milwaukee can't turn things around, they may become sellers and Jeff Suppan, Davis and Bush could be trade bait for other clubs.
Rays Face Decision On Blalock
WEDNESDAY, 10:49am: ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that other teams are beginning to weigh interest in Blalock, in case the Rays are willing to trade him. Olney guesses his opt-out date is May 15th. He adds that "once Blalock informs the Rays that he wants to opt out, they have 48 hours to deal him or put him on their roster." Olney's sources presume the Mariners and White Sox would get in the mix if Blalock becomes a free agent.
TUESDAY, 10:54pm: Scott Boras indicated to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that Hank Blalock may exercise the out clause in his contract within a week if the Rays don't call him up.
"I would imagine that we'll probably know something about Hank in the next seven days," Boras said. "The time has come. The time has come. He's playing third base, obviously he's hitting well, he's a young guy."
Blalock, 29, has a .375/.435/.552 line and four homers in Triple A Durham (though that batting average has been inflated by a .421 batting average on balls in play). Meanwhile, Pat Burrell is hitting .221/.315/.364 with two homers in the majors. Willy Aybar has yet to start at DH for the Rays, but he has appeared in ten games as a backup DH, so the Rays could turn to him.
The Rays could cut their losses and release Burrell, who earns $9MM this year, to make room for Blalock. They could also attempt to trade Blalock, perhaps to the Mariners. But if Blalock hits free agency again, Boras says he is confident that there will be interest in his client.
"I think a lot of people understand Hank's a better choice for them, so we'll see," Boras said.
Under his current contract, Blalock is set to earn a base salary of $925K in the major leagues.
Boras To Represent 17-Year-Old Korean
Agent Scott Boras will represent 17-year-old Korean pitcher Sung-hyuk Han, according to Whan-woo Yi of the Korea Times. The high school senior is set to graduate early next year, at which point his father has authorized Boras to enter discussions with big league teams.
The Korea Times labels Han a top local prospect and notes that he throws a 93 mph fastball. Several MLB teams have been keeping tabs on the righty, according to the pitcher's father. Check out our list of Scott Boras clients here.
Possible Areas Of Concern: Nationals, Cubs, D’Backs
It's still early – probably too early to draw definite conclusions about teams' strengths and weaknesses – but let's take a look at some clubs that could look to improve in certain areas. This is purely speculative, and remember – these weaknesses could become strengths in a matter of weeks.
- Nationals right fielders are hitting .159/.276/.327 this year. No one player is to blame, as Willie Harris, Roger Bernadina, Cristian Guzman, Justin Maxwell, Mike Morse and Willy Taveras have all spent time in right this season. None of those players has hit more than three homers, but Jim Riggleman recently told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he has confidence in Harris and Bernadina because of their defense.
- Possible solutions: Jose Guillen could become available, though the Royals say they don't expect to make moves soon. Free agents Jermaine Dye and Gary Sheffield would likely bring more power than the Nats' current mix.
- The Cubs have used six right-handers in relief this year and only one – Carlos Marmol – has an ERA below 6.00. Now ERA can be deceiving, but Marmol and Carlos Zambrano are the only Cubs relievers who have struck out more batters than they have walked (Marmol by a wide margin, as he has an astounding 18.4 K/9 rate).
- Possible solutions: As Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports, the Cubs could call on Triple A right-handers Jay Jackson and Casey Coleman. The Cubs could also look to the free agent market; is Juan Cruz worth a flier? Alternatively, GM Jim Hendry could call up the Mariners or D'Backs, two teams with all-right-handed bullpens.
- The Mariners appear fine without a left-handed reliever, but the D'Backs, who don't have a left-handed pitcher on their active roster, have allowed a .294/.356/.496 line against lefty batters this year. The D'Backs have a bullpen ERA of 7.09, so righties are hitting them, too.
- Possible solutions: The D'Backs could pursue a trade for a left-hander, but GM Josh Byrnes told Nick Piecoro that he would prefer to be patient. There isn't much available on the free agent market, other than Eddie Guardado. The D'Backs could call on Jordan Norberto, who was in the majors earlier in the year, or Zach Kroenke, also at Triple A. Baseball America placed the two pitchers 29th and 30th respectively when ranking top D'Backs prospects before the season.
Melvin: Brewers Expect To Add Minor League Depth
The Brewers will look outside the organization to replace Adam Stern at Triple A, GM Doug Melvin told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). The Brewers called on Stern when they placed Carlos Gomez on the disabled list today, so they are looking to add depth in the minor leagues.
Stern, 30, hasn't played in the majors since 2007. He's off to a good start in Triple A Nashville, hitting .349/.429/.442 in 49 trips to the plate. McCalvy wonders if the Brewers could acquire Frank Catalanotto, who the Mets designated for assignment yesterday, to replace Stern at Triple A. Catalanotto was off to a poor start for the Mets, but he did hit .278/.346/.382 in 162 plate appearances for Milwaukee last year.
Gomez isn't the team's only banged up outfielder. Ryan Braun is sitting tonight's game out after being hit by a pitch from Tommy Hanson.
Why The Mariners Don’t Need A Lefty Reliever
Believe it or not, the Mariners have not used a left-handed reliever all season long. Conventional wisdom would have us believe that every bullpen needs a lefty or two to retire opponents' best left-handed bats in close games. But Mariners pitching coach John Wetteland is willing to challenge conventional wisdom.
"You don't need to have a lefty in the 'pen just because it's obvious that lefties do well against lefty hitters," Wetteland told MLB.com's Doug Miller last week.
Wetteland knows that as well as anyone. The righty allowed a .223/.292/.346 career line against lefty batters – not far from the line Wetteland allowed against righties. But not every reliever is as well-equipped to shut batters on both sides of the plate down.
To find out if Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik needs to add a left-handed reliever, let's see how the bullpen has done against lefties. Five weeks of data isn't much, so let's take a look at the numbers Mariners relievers have posted against lefties in their respective careers.
- Shawn Kelley – He has done much better against lefties in his career, limiting them to a .219/.268/.314 line.
- Sean White – His .219/.312/.322 line against lefties is quite good. However, left-handed batters are hitting just .225 on balls in play and homering on 4.5% of their fly balls against White. Both of those figures can be expected to rise and when they do, White's slash line will likely rise, too.
- David Aardsma – His .248/.363/.331 line is actually better than his line against righties.
- Kanekoa Texeira – Though Texeira has faced lefties just 26 times in the majors, his .208/.269/.292 line looks promising. Texeira struck out 106 batters in as many innings against lefties in his minor league career.
- Brandon League – His .284/.343/.453 line against lefties does not inspire much confidence, but League has allowed homers on 18.4% of fly balls against him and allowed a batting average of .321 on balls in play, which suggests he has been unlucky against lefties in his career.
- Mark Lowe – He has an ugly .298/.382/.514 line against lefties in his career. As Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner noted earlier in the month, Lowe is "something of a glorified right-handed specialist." Lowe is now on the DL with an inflamed disc in his lower back.
- Jesus Colome – Lefties have hit .275/.382/.449 against Colome, so the Mariners should minimize his exposure to lefties.
- Ian Snell – Snell has allowed lefties to post a .294/.386/.484 line against him in his career. He should face righties whenever possible.
It turns out that Don Wakamatsu has more than enough weapons to retire opposing left-handers, especially now that Kelley's back on the team. But the Mariners have to use their 'pen carefully. Aardsma, Texeira and Kelley can succeed against lefty batters, but Colome, Snell and eventually Lowe should not face lefties in close games. The Mariners have their share of issues these days and their bullpen could be better, but Zduriencik can ignore conventional wisdom and proceed without acquiring a lefty.
Chipper Puts Retirement Talk To Rest
Chipper Jones is no longer thinking about retiring before his contract expires, reports David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Jones, 38, is under contract through 2012 and the Braves have a $7MM club option for 2013. After a disappointing 2009 season (at least by Jones' standards), Chipper said he didn't want to play if he wasn't producing at his usual level. Now, the third baseman is no longer contemplating retirement.
“I’m good,” Jones said. “I feel like I’m doing my job. There hasn’t been a point where I got in bed and couldn’t sleep because I’m worried about what’s going on."
Jones has a .230/.402/.368 line so far this year and while his slugging percentage has dropped for a third consecutive season, Jones points to his league-leading 25 walks. Those free passes have kept his on base percentage near his career average, so Jones is content to keep playing. The 17-year veteran is set to make $28MM in 2011-12.