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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Dodgers, Red Sox, Iwamura, Matsui

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On this date 33 years ago, Bill Campbell became one of the first players to sign a contract with a new team under baseball's new free agency system. After saving 20 games with the Twins in '76, Campbell signed a four-year, $1MM deal with the Red Sox. In his first season in Boston, he would save 31 games and make his only All-Star appearance. As we enter the 34th Hot Stove season, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Red Sox, Rays, Doumit, Gonzalez, Cubs

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On this date two years ago, the Yankees signed Joe Girardi to a three-year deal worth $7.5MM. Two years later, Girardi has the Yankees in the World Series. With the offseason now just days away, many players will be looking for their own new deals. Let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • The Bottom Line projects the Red Sox 2010 payroll and what they need to do to get back on top.
  • Fire Brand of the American League looks at shortstop options for the Red Sox. 
  • Dodgers Rumors breaks down the Dodgers' 2010 roster and how they may approach free agency.
  • Rays Index projects the Rays 25-man and 40-man rosters as well as the 2010 payroll.
  • New Bucs says it is time for the Pirates to trade Ryan Doumit.
  • Mets Fans Forever speculates on what it might take for the Mets to land Adrian Gonzalez.
  • The Cub Reporter suggests some players for the Cubs to target this offseason, including Kelvim Escobar and Akinori Iwamura.
  • World Series Dreaming doesn't see any major changes coming to the Cubs this off-season.
  • Around the Majors breaks down the free agents at third base.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Gonzalez, Thome, Hinske, Red Sox, D’Backs, Twins

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On this date 64 years ago, the Dodgers announced the signing of Jackie Robinson, who would become the first African-American to play major league baseball since the 1880s. Robinson would spend the '46 season with Triple-A Montreal, hitting .349. The next season he would hit .297/.383/.427 and help the Dodgers to the National League pennant. With the Hot Stove season only days away, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

  • Sox and Pinstripes looks at what it would take for the Red Sox to land Adrian Gonzalez.
  • Phlavio's Corner attempts to fix the Diamondbacks in three moves or less.
  • Around the Majors takes a look at the free agent class of shortstops.
  • MLB Notebook breaks down the market for Jim Thome.
  • Nick's Twins Blog makes an off-season blueprint for the Twins and projects next season's roster.
  • Capitol Avenue Club examines what the Braves can do to reload the bullpen in 2010.
  • Talking Chop says the Braves need to add a power-bat this off-season, in part to protect Chipper Jones.
  • Marlin Maniac sees Eric Hinske as a good fit for the Marlins.

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Twins, Mets, Rockies, Delgado, Nady, Butler

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On this date six years ago, Aaron Boone ended the ALCS with an 11th inning home run off of Tim Wakefield. Yesterday we learned that Boone is likely to retire, ending his 12-year career. With this season's LCS underway, 26 teams are already in the Hot Stove season. Let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…

Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Reds.  Their likely commitments for 2010:    

C – Ryan Hanigan – $400K
C – Corky Miller – $450K+
1B – Joey Votto – $438K
2B – Brandon Phillips – $6.75MM
SS – Paul Janish – $400K
3B – Scott Rolen – $11MM
IF – Drew Sutton – $400K
LF – Jonny Gomes – $600K+
CF – Drew Stubbs – $400K
RF – Jay Bruce – $418K
OF – Willy Taveras – $4MM
OF – Laynce Nix – $600K+
OF – Chris Dickerson – $400K

SP – Aaron Harang – $12.5MM
SP – Bronson Arroyo – $11MM
SP – Johnny Cueto – $418K
SP – Homer Bailey – $401K
SP – Justin Lehr – $400K

Other candidates: Matt Maloney, Micah Owings

RP – Francisco Cordero – $12MM
RP – Arthur Rhodes – $2MM
RP – Nick Masset – $418K+
RP – Mike Lincoln – $2.5MM
RP – Jared Burton – $420K+
RP – Micah Owings – $420K+
RP – Danny Herrera – $400K

Other commitments: Ramon Hernandez – $1MM buyout

Non-tender candidates: Corky Miller, Bill Bray, Laynce Nix

The Reds have about $70MM committed before arbitration raises to Miller, Gomes, Nix, Masset, Burton, and Owings.  We'll allocate another $5MM for those raises, puting the team in the $75MM range.  The Reds were at $73.6MM heading into the season, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  Given the lack of payroll space, it's no surprise GM Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon his interest in free agents will be minimal this offseason.

The Reds should have a strong defensive infield in 2010, especially if they decide Janish's glovework makes up for his poor hitting.

Between Stubbs and Dickerson, the Reds should have a workable internal solution for center field that does not involve giving 400+ plate appearances to Taveras.  Replacing Taveras and getting more out of Bruce and Rolen seems to be the easiest route to an improved offense in 2010.

Jocketty has spoken of his desire to add a "quality RBI man" despite the lack of payroll space.  Non-tendering Gomes would make little sense, as he could be that RBI man for a few million bucks (Gomes slugged .541 this year).

Jocketty could also free up cash by trading Harang or Arroyo.  A team like the Mets might be interested in assuming one of those contracts if the demand for players is minimal.  But it's hard to see how that would improve the Reds, who are not in a position to subtract a starter now that Edinson Volquez is unlikely to contribute in 2010 (Tommy John surgery).  The best rotation addition for the buck is probably free agent pitching coach Dave Duncan, but his inclination is to stay in St. Louis.

One pitcher Jocketty could afford to trade is Cordero, given Masset's success in 2009.  The Reds' closer has two years and $25MM remaining.  The problem is that the Reds would have to assume half his contract to make Cordero mildly appealing.

Jocketty overspent on Taveras and Lincoln a year ago, committing $10.25MM to the pair.  Add that to the $11MM the Reds GM took on for Rolen next year, and it's clear the Reds don't have much flexibility this winter.  Improvements will have to come from within.

Odds & Ends: Pujols, Holliday, Mauer, Reyes

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Links for Tuesday…

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Athletics.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Kurt Suzuki – $410K
C – Landon Powell – $400K
1B – Daric Barton – $410K
2B – Mark Ellis – $5.5MM
SS – Cliff Pennington – $400K
3B – Eric Chavez – $12MM
IF – Gregorio Petit – $405K
LF – Scott Hairston – $1.25MM+
CF – Rajai Davis – $410K
RF – Ryan Sweeney – $410K
OF – Travis Buck – $410K
DH – Jack Cust – $2.8MM+
IF/OF – Eric Patterson – $405K 

SP – Dallas Braden – $410K
SP – Brett Anderson – $400K
SP – Trevor Cahill – $400K
SP – Gio Gonzalez – $405K
SP – Vin Mazzaro – $400K

RP – Mike Wuertz – $1.1MM+
RP – Brad Ziegler – $405K 
RP – Andrew Bailey – $400K
RP – Joey Devine – $410K+
RP – Craig Breslow – $422K
RP – Jerry Blevins – $405K
RP – Brad Kilby – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Jack Cust, Santiago Casilla

Other commitments: Jason Giambi – $1.25MM

The A's have about $30.8MM committed before arbitration raises to Hairston, Cust, Wuertz, Casilla, and Devine.  Cust and Casilla are non-tender candidates, so we'll estimate a mid-$30MM commitment for 2010.  According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the A's entered 2009 with a $62.3MM payroll.  There hasn't been any indication that the A's plan to be big spenders this winter, but if payroll is held steady GM Billy Beane would have roughly $25MM to work with.

The 2009 A's ranked 11th in the AL with a .328 OBP and last with a .397 SLG.  The offense had more of a middle-of-the-pack performance in the second half, with Davis, Sweeney, Cust, and Barton leading the way.  Despite the improvement, the most obvious area for improvement in 2010 is the offense.

The rebuilding thing to do would be to give Barton one more chance to prove he can hit outside of the month of September.  Powerful prospect Chris Carter is another option.  But there would be little harm in adding a 2010 stopgap, someone like Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado, or Nick Johnson.

Third base is a similar situation – Brett Wallace may not be ready yet, and the A's can't count on Chavez.  Why not entertain signing Adrian Beltre or Troy Glaus?  Shortstop frontrunner Pennington is also unproven, but the free agent market isn't terribly appealing.

With Davis and Sweeney taking outfield spots, DH and left field are other possible areas to upgrade.  MLB.com's Mychael Urban feels Beane is leaning toward tendering a contract to Cust, whose 25 home runs led the team (his .417 SLG was less inspiring).  If Beane decides to make a change, he can choose from plenty of free agent DH candidates for the same $3-4MM Cust would make.  We haven't heard anything about Hairston being a non-tender candidate, though he was awful in Oakland.

The A's have a stacked bullpen, especially if Devine comes back strong.  One veteran free agent play for the rotation would make sense, someone like Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Randy Johnson, or Ben Sheets. 

Though Oakland's veteran additions for 2009 didn't work out, fans presumably appreciated them taking a shot at contention.  I think Beane should make a similar attempt to supplement the club for 2010; he could again do so without harming the long-term health of the franchise.

Minor League Free Agents

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Baseball America's Matt Eddy has a list of "the first wave of minor league free agents."  See anyone you like?

RHP Greg Aquino
RHP Josh Banks
3B Brian Barden
C Edwin Bellorin
RHP Kris Benson
1B Wilson Betemit
LHP Travis Blackley
RHP Bryan Bullington
LHP Brian Burres
RHP Vinnie Chulk
RHP R.A. Dickey
3B Joe Dillon
RHP Brandon Duckworth
OF Chris Duffy
RHP Geoff Geary
RHP Enrique Gonzalez
C Michel Hernandez
RHP Philip Humber
OF Mitch Jones
2B Matt Kata
LHP Javier Lopez
RHP Shane Loux
RHP Edwin Moreno
RHP Joe Nelson
C Guillermo Quiroz
RHP Steven Register
LHP Royce Ring
RHP Connor Robertson
LHP Glendon Rusch
OF Jeff Salazar
C Dane Sardinha
RHP Chris Schroder
3B Chris Shelton
2B Jason Smith
3B Craig Stansberry
RHP Denny Stark
LHP R.J. Swindle
LHP Jon Switzer

Which Free Agents Will Be Offered Arbitration?

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For a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player.  The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be "stuck" with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010.  Keep in mind that cutting a player who accepted arbitration must be done based on the player's "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" rather than the team's desire to save money.

Keep in mind also that, as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues explained last year, "There are no rules for salary reduction for players with more than six years of service time."  For example, if Vladimir Guerrero accepts an arbitration offer from the Angels, the team could offer him $5MM for 2010 despite his $15MM salary in '09.  (The team still might lose at a hearing though, so the risk remains).

Let's break down the ranked free agents (Type A or B) based on whether their teams will offer arbitration.  Players whose options have been declined can be offered arbitration, but I've omitted those here (aside from Wagner).

Locks to be offered arb:  Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf

Likely to be offered arb: Bobby Abreu, Marlon Byrd, Marco Scutaro, Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Fernando Rodney, Adam LaRoche, Joel Pineiro

Might be offered arb: Johnny Damon, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, Brandon Lyon, Bengie Molina, Nick Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Scott Eyre, Kiko Calero

Needless to say, I feel that players not listed above are not likely to be offered arbitration.  That's a big list; it includes players such as Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Placido Polanco, Erik Bedard, Mike Cameron, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Rafael Soriano.

Of course, this is all just one person's opinion.  Let me know where you feel differently.  Last year, 24 free agents were offered arbitration, and I was surprised by at least eight who weren't (Adam Dunn, Kerry Wood, Abreu, and Wolf especially).

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Blue Jays.  Their likely commitments for 2010:

C –
C – Raul Chavez – $500K+
1B – Lyle Overbay – $7MM
2B – Aaron Hill – $4MM
SS –
3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $4.75MM
IF – Joe Inglett – $411K
LF – Adam Lind – $412K
CF – Vernon Wells – $12.5MM
RF – Travis Snider – $401K
OF –
DH – Randy Ruiz – $400K
? –

SP – Roy Halladay – $15.75MM
SP – Ricky Romero – $400K
SP – Shaun Marcum – $405K+
SP – Marc Rzepczynski – $400K
SP – Scott Richmond – $402K

Other candidates: Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Brad Mills

Injured:  Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
 
RP – Scott Downs – $4MM
RP – Jason Frasor – $1.45MM+
RP – Brandon League – $640K+
RP – Jesse Carlson – $409K
RP – Casey Janssen – $414K
RP – Shawn Camp – $750K+
RP – Brian Tallet – $1.015MM+

Non-tender candidates: Jose Bautista, Jeremy Accardo

Other commitments: B.J. Ryan – $10MM

Assuming Bautista and one of Accardo/Tallet are non-tendered, the Blue Jays will have roughly $56MM committed before arbitration raises to Marcum, Frasor, League, Camp, and Chavez.  Add in B.J. Ryan's salary and commitments are in the low $70MM range.  The Jays entered 2009 with an $80.5MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  New GM Alex Anthopoulos might have $10MM to spend, if the team holds payroll steady.

If Anthopoulos looks to contend in 2010, he's got his work cut out for him, especially if payroll isn't increased.  With Rod Barajas and Marco Scutaro eligible for free agency, the team could lose its starters at catcher and shortstop.  The Jays also lack a right fielder if they're unwilling to use Lind and Snider at the corners.

The Jays could attempt to improve upon Barajas behind the plate, though most other free agent catchers are equally questionable.  Arizona's Chris Snyder would be an interesting target, if not for the $11.25MM remaining on his contract.  Blue Jays catcher of the future J.P. Arencibia seemingly needs more seasoning after a .236/.284/.444 Triple A performance.  Barajas hopes to return, but has yet to hold discussions with the Jays.

Shortstop will also be a difficult position to fill.  Scutaro could be seeking $6-7MM annually coming off a career year.  The free agent market is bleak here as well, with J.J. Hardy the obvious trade target.  The Blue Jays might even have the starting pitching depth to pull off a deal with Milwaukee.

As always, outfield and DH options are plentiful on the free agent market.  Anthopoulos can afford to wait until February and hunt for a bargain.

I've been operating under the assumption the Blue Jays will attempt to compete in 2010 and will therefore keep Halladay.  If so, their rotation appears deep.  But is it crazy to think the Jays could trade Doc and put themselves in a better position for 2010?  Perhaps Anthopoulos could build the trade around a Major League-ready catcher or shortstop as well as a high-quality young starting pitcher.

Anthopoulos has admitted his team needs more than tweaking.  Will the Blue Jays commit to a full-scale rebuilding plan?  Will they raise payroll significantly and add players to complement Halladay, Lind, and Hill?  It'd be disappointing to see the Jays choose something in-between.

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