Brewers Notes: Mulder And Other Targets
MLB.com's Adam McCalvy answers reader questions in his latest Inbox column. First among them was a query if Milwaukee was finished making player moves for the winter.
McCalvy writes, "Not likely, because everything points to a Mark Mulder signing, and I think [GM Doug] Melvin will remain on the lookout for starting pitchers available in cost-neutral trades, bench players on the free-agent market and pitchers in general for depth."
The statement is interesting for two reasons. For one thing, this reinforces previous reports that the Brewers are the likely destination for Mulder, despite appearing to have five starters already in place. It also means that any free agent additions from here on out are likely to be on the inexpensive side.
McCalvy also weighs in on the overall 2010 roster, the batting lineup and even the Miller Park grass.
Where Will Jose Valverde End Up?
MLB.com's Brian McTaggart writes in his latest piece about Jose Valverde's struggle to find a multi-year contract, or even a one-year deal equivalent to the $10MM salary he was likely to receive had he accepted Houston's offer of arbitration.
McTaggart describes Valverde, 30, as the latest in a tradition of arbitration-eligible players who turn down the offer, only to find the marketplace a far colder place.
Valverde's problem isn't effectiveness- he pitched to a 2.33 ERA last year as Houston's closer, and has posted better than a strikeout per inning every season he's been in the majors- but rather finding a team willing to pay him and give up a draft pick, since Valverde is one of three remaining Type A free agents who were offered arbitration (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday are the others).
McTaggart writes, "The hard truth for Valverde is that although he is the most talented and accomplished of the available closers, it may very well be that turning down arbitration from the Astros — and the likely $10 million salary that he would have netted for 2010 — was a bad gamble. He may end up having to accept a one-year deal anyway, as Wagner did, and potentially at significantly less than he would have made in arbitration."
The Astros moved on, signing Brandon Lyon to a three-year, $15MM deal to close. As for Valverde, his destination is still to-be-determined. If/when his price comes down, he could be one of the real bargains of the winter.
Discussion: Battle Of The Upside Starters
With the signing of Jason Marquis, the free agent starting pitchers left on the board are all awfully similar in terms of likely value. If you like Doug Davis over Jon Garland, or Joel Pineiro over Davis, you're still not likely to get a frontline starting pitcher, and it is likely to cost a team roughly what Marquis cost the Nationals.
The two remaining starters with the chance to be much better than average- but carrying significant risk- are Ben Sheets and Pedro Martinez. With Martinez, we have a better sense of what he is looking for, contract-wise, thanks to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reporting earlier today that he wants "more than Brad Penny got"- more than $7.5MM base salary, in other words. That's still in line with Marquis and company, however.
As for Sheets, he's reportedly seeking $12MM next year. So the question becomes, is Sheets likely to be more than a third better than Martinez?
The major advantages for Sheets: he's posted an ERA of 3.39 since 2007, while Martinez is actually below average during that time, at 4.66. Sheets has also made at least 30 starts as recently as 2008; Martinez last accomplished the feat in 2005.
But Martinez may be a better bet than that would suggest. For one thing, Sheets didn't pitch at all last season, while Martinez was quite effective- a 3.63 ERA in the regular season, 3.70 ERA in the playoffs. Martinez has also had a better strikeout rate than Sheets since 2007, which is a strong indicator of future performance.
If the price tag is significantly lower for Martinez- and as of right now, it appears to be- he might be the more valuable upside candidate of the two.
And if risk isn't your game, there's always Jon Garland.
Odds & Ends: Blue Jays, Mets, Padres
The Winter Meetings motor is getting revved up…
- Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star lists three misconceptions about the Roy Halladay situation.
- The Mets have added former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky to their front office, according to Ken Rosenthal's Twitter feed. Krivsky had been working with the Orioles.
- Corey Brock of MLB.com answers fan questions. Among other things, he believes Tony Gwynn, Jr. is a fourth outfielder, while Mike Cameron would be a good fit in San Diego.
- Despite the economic downturn, salaries went up league-wide in 2009.
Rangers Rumors: Oliver, Dye, Dotel
This info-packed T.R. Sullivan report for MLB.com indicates that Texas is interested in Darren Oliver, Jermaine Dye and Octavio Dotel. Sullivan points out that all three are Type A free agents. Of course, there would only be a draft pick cost attached if the player is offered and turns down arbitration (which seems possible only for Oliver).
Sullivan added that Texas is expected to offer arbitration to Marlon Byrd, while no decision has been made about Ivan Rodriguez. Both are Type Bs.
Oliver worked out of relief for the Angels last season, but had two tours of duty with the Rangers, most recently as a starter in 2001. Their interest in Oliver is understandable- his 8 strikeouts per nine innings was his highest total since back in 1994. Dotel has posted back-to-back healthy seasons for the White Sox, and could solidify a shaky Texas bullpen.
Dye, meanwhile, was also mentioned as a potential Texas target by Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com.
Orioles Interested In Millwood
Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com are reporting that the Orioles have called the Rangers about Kevin Millwood, though talks are not serious, according to one source.
The source said the Rangers would like to move Millwood's $12MM salary for 2010 in order to sign Jermaine Dye.
MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, however, reports that the Rangers are not interested in moving Millwood.
Millwood pitched to a 3.67 ERA in 198 2/3 innings in 2009, but his strikeout rate dropped from 6.7 per nine innings in 2008 to 5.6 in 2009.
Dye, meanwhile, hit .250/.340/.453 in 2009. He's indicated a willingness to move to first base, but that kind of offensive production wouldn't be enough for the position.
Pirates Interested In Duchscherer
Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Pirates are "one of several teams" interested in Justin Duchscherer, who missed all of the 2009 season, first due to hip and elbow surgery, then as a result of clinical depression.
Duchscherer, 32, pitched to a 2.54 ERA in 22 starts with Oakland in 2008. He was described by his agent as "a happier and healthier person", suggesting that he can resume his effectiveness in 2010.
This kind of low-cost, high-reward signing is exactly what teams like the Pirates need to do to contend. It would also be a heartwarming story to see Duchscherer succeed.
Indians Will Look Within To Fill Roster
Buster Olney is reporting on his Twitter feed that the Indians' "preference might be giving their internal candidates a chance to play, instead of inking vet FAs to $800K deals."
It is fair to wonder if this will be a league-wide trend, though the Mets' decision to bring in Chris Coste and Alex Cora seems to argue against this.
Cleveland, unlike New York, also has more players at the upper levels of their farm system.
Mets Sign Chris Coste
The Fargo-Moorehead Forum's Jeff Kolpack has confirmed a report by New York Baseball Digest's Joe DeMayo that the Mets have signed Chris Coste, a Fargo native, to a contract.
Coste told the Forum that the Mets gave him a guarantee of being placed on the 40-man roster, though not a guaranteed spot on the Opening Day roster. If the Mets are happy with Coste, they can keep him beyond 2010 as an arbitration-eligible player.
Coste struggled with the bat in 2009, hitting just .224/.301/.317 in 230 plate appearances with the Phillies and Astros.
The former 33-year-old rookie will be 37 next season.
Jason Grilli Signs With Mystery Team
THURSDAY, 8:08am: Grilli tweets that he hasn't signed with the Yankees, though he says he'd love to play for them eventually.
MONDAY, 8:38pm: According to Jason Grilli's Twitter account, the well-traveled pitcher has signed with his seventh team.
Grilli tweets, "Well it is official. I am signing with my 7th team. Can you guess? Drum roll please! Will let ya know when I am able."
If, as it appears from Grilli's comment, this is his seventh different team, that rules out the Giants, Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, Rockies and Rangers.
The 33-year-old righthander pitched to a 5.32 ERA in 2009 for the Rockies and Rangers.