Giants Have “Talked About” Pursuing Jacoby Ellsbury Trade
The Giants have at least “talked about” swinging a deal with the Yankees involving outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Twitter links). Details of any negotiations remain unknown, as is the seriousness of the Giants’ interest.
Given Ellsbury’s cost, and the fact that he missed all of the 2018 season, the concept would only conceivably make sense if it involved a big, bad contract going back east. The Giants certainly do have some underperforming deals on the books, including Johnny Cueto ($68MM over three years, including buyout on 2022 option), Jeff Samardzija ($36MM over two years), Brandon Belt ($48MM over three years), Mark Melancon ($28MM over two years), and Evan Longoria ($61.5MM over four years, including buyout on 2023 option and excluding portion owed by the Rays).
Olney speculates that Cueto might make sense as a return piece, so long as the sides could even up the anticipated money somehow. Ellsbury is still owed just over $47MM over the next two seasons, including a buyout in a 2021 option. In theory, Ellsbury would step into the Giants’ barren outfield mix, assuming he’s able to get healthy, while the Yanks would collect insurance proceeds on Cueto until he’s ready to return from Tommy John surgery. (Ellsbury’s contract is also insured to some extent; the Yanks reportedly collected on it last year.)
It’s worth adding that the competitive balance tax hits for both players are quite similar, as both check in just under $22MM. That’s a key consideration for both of these teams, each of which is seemingly attempting to stay beneath the luxury line.
While there’s arguably some outward appeal to the concept — which, to reiterate, was presented only as a hypothetical — it seems like a questionable idea from the Giants’ perspective. Ellsbury was fading hard even before he missed all of 2018. While he was still a useful player, he likely profiles at best as a heavily utilized platoon man at this stage. At 35 years of age, Ellsbury comes with limited upside. Cueto had certainly not been at his best even before going under the knife, but he threw 219 2/3 innings of 2.79 ERA ball in 2016 and is still a few days away from his 33rd birthday. While the Giants might well like to take a shot on Ellsbury as a veteran piece, it seems much likelier that Cueto will end up returning something close to the value of his remaining earnings. With three pending free agents in the current rotation, the Giants will surely have a use for him, too. Perhaps it’s fair to think, then, that the Yanks would have to sweeten such a deal with young talent.
It’s interesting to wonder whether other permutations could instead be pursued. Samardzija might give the Yankees some desired rotation depth and could be an interesting candidate to work in a long relief role. He comes with a lesser tax hit of $18MM, but perhaps the deal could include a veteran reliever and deliver more young talent back to the Giants. There are certainly plenty of ways to sketch out tax-neutral scenarios, though at the end of the day it all depends just how interested the Giants really are in having Ellsbury on their roster — and how motivated the Yankees are to send him out. And the veteran outfielder will also have a say himself, as he enjoys full no-trade protection.
Free Agent Notes: Phillies, Yanks, Giants, Gonzalez
While we already know this through observation, Phillies GM Matt Klentak made clear again that his organization intends to remain patient in its blockbuster free agent pursuits, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia recently reported. Klentak says he won’t be rushed into a decision by the onset of camp, saying that there’s no “deadline” to get a deal done before Spring Training. Generally, he said, “The fans are well aware that we’re pursuing the top end of free agency. When that’s going to resolve itself, we don’t really know.”
As we wait for some movement at the top of the market — particularly, regarding reputed Phillies targets Bryce Harper and Manny Machado — let’s check in on a few other situations further down the priority list, all courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (links to Twitter) …
- The Yankees still want to boost their rotation depth, Heyman says, though it’s a bit unclear as of yet how they’ll go about doing so. He lists Gio Gonzalez and Ervin Santana as at-least-hypothetical targets, but it stands to reason that both will want to sign somewhere that they’ll be promised a rotation spot. Gonzalez is one of the best remaining starters and should have little trouble finding at least a clear rotation placement, if not a multi-year deal. Santana does seem to be an interesting bounceback candidate, but he’ll surely be seeking a chance to take the ball every fifth day, which the Yanks can’t promise.
- Unsurprisingly, the Giants appear to be hunting for value on the market in their search for a new slate of outfielders. That seemed reasonable to suspect when last we checked in on the situation, as the San Francisco organization seemingly wants to remain competitive while also embarking upon an effort to get younger and enhance payroll efficiency. There could be some interesting free agent opportunities, though perhaps the most intriguing possibility would be for the Giants to pick up some pieces that become available after late-breaking signings.
- The Rockies have some level of interest in yet again bringing back outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, Heyman adds. This particular item is frankly difficult to understand, as the Rox are working with a limited budget and still need to improve behind the dish, in the bullpen, and perhaps on the bench. Meanwhile, the team has a nice assortment of left-handed-hitting outfielders already on hand, making the veteran former star a tough fit on paper. In any event, other teams are also said to be interested in CarGo.
Nationals To Sign J.J. Hoover
The Nationals have agreed to a minor-league deal with righty J.J. Hoover. Remaining terms of the pact are not yet known.
Hoover, 31, has thrown in parts of seven seasons in the majors, including a brief stint last year with the Brewers. He was bumped from the Milwaukee roster early in the season but never ended up joining another club.
All told, Hoover carries a 4.17 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 through 285 MLB innings. He sported a career-high swinging-strike rate of 12.0% in his last full season (2017, with the Diamondbacks), so there’s reason to believe he could be a big league contributor. For the Nats, Hoover represents a fairly notable depth piece to support the high-powered, high-risk relief unit they have compiled.
Twins To Sign Wilin Rosario
The Twins have reportedly inked catcher/first baseman Wilin Rosario to a minors deal, with Roberto Carlos Feble seemingly first to tweet the news. It comes with a MLB spring invite, per Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link).
After running out of opportunities with the Rockies, Rosario took his slugging talents to Asia for the past three seasons. He thrived as a power-hitting first baseman in the KBO for two years before landing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2018. He struggled there, however, producing a meager .242/.285/.374 slash in 302 plate appearances.
Rosario remains most notable for his pop, which is significant enough largely to make up for his on-base deficiencies — or, perhaps more accurately, that was the case when he was still considered capable of serving behind the dish. Unfortunately, Rosario never impressed defensively as a backstop, so he’s now mostly limited to playing first base or serving as a DH. He’ll have to do better than his lifetime MLB 98 OPS+ if he hopes to carve out a role at the game’s highest level. Rosario turns thirty later this month.
Red Sox To Sign Brian Ellington
In yet another item on what has turned into Boston bullpen night here at MLBTR, the Red Sox have reportedly struck a deal with flamethrowing righty Brian Ellington. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link), the 28-year-old receives a minors pact; it’s unknown whether it includes a spring invite.
Like several of the team’s other recent, low-cost pen additions, Ellington is long on tools but lacks an established track record of success at the MLB level. He owns a 4.65 ERA in 102 2/3 career frames in the majors. Ellington was dropped early in 2018 by the Marlins and didn’t last long with the Diamondbacks organization after being added on a minors deal.
Ellington has averaged a whopping 98.5 mph with his average fastball in those innings, helping him to generate an 11.4% swinging-strike rate despite infrequent use of offspeed offerings. But he has also handed out free passes like candy in the majors (5.6 per nine). Both player and team will surely enter camp hoping to find a way to harness Ellington’s arm strength.
Red Sox To Sign Dan Runzler
The Red Sox have added reliever Dan Runzler on a minors deal, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). It isn’t yet known whether he’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp.
A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level.
Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.
Boston fans clamoring for some bullpen help likely won’t be appeased by this addition, any more than they were by the club’s prior winter moves. Runzler joins Colten Brewer, Zach Putnam, and Jenrry Mejia as low-risk relief candidates that have been brought on board this winter.
Outrighted: Gavin Cecchini, Max Povse
A pair of players has been outrighted after clearing waivers …
- The Mets will retain the rights to former first-round draft pick Gavin Cecchini, who was recently dropped from the 40-man roster and seemed a plausible candidate to be claimed. Evidently, no rival clubs were intrigued enough to create the roster space that would have been required. Cecchini is still just 25 years old and has at times hit well in the minors, but he has never developed much power and was limited by injuries last year.
- Also heading to Triple-A after losing his roster spot is Mariners righty Max Povse. The writing was on the wall after Povse scuffled through his two seasons with the Seattle organization, though the former third-rounder still has some impressive physical tools. The M’s will presumably be glad to hang on to the 6’8 hurler. If he throws well in camp or at the outset of the season, it’s still possible he could find his way back to the MLB mound in the season to come.
Astros Sign Wade Miley
Feb. 1: The Astros have formally announced the signing. Houston’s 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Jan. 31: The Astros have agreed to a one-year deal with lefty Wade Miley, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The O’Connell Sports Management client receives a $4.5MM guarantee and can tack on $500K in incentives, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds (Twitter links).
Miley becomes the latest mid-range starter to settle for a one-year pact after entering the offseason with a case for a multi-season arrangement. He’ll presumably step into the Houston rotation, though his incentives package includes provisions allowing him to earn either for starts or relief appearances, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (Twitter link).
This trip through free agency may not have been quite as financially rewarding as Miley might have hoped, but he landed with a clear contender and certainly fared better than he did the last time around. Miley settled for a minors pact last year with the Brewers after a rough two-season run, but turned things around after overcoming some health issues early in the season.
All told, Miley worked to a 2.57 ERA in 80 2/3 frames over 16 starts last year in Milwaukee. He averaged only 5.6 K/9 with 3.0 BB/9, but generated a robust 52.8% groundball rate and allowed only three home runs on the year.
In some regards, Miley was not a substantially different pitcher last year than he had been over the prior seven seasons. His swinging-strike rate sat just a half percentage point above his lifetime 8.6% mark; his average fastball velocity sat right at his career mean of ~92 mph. But that only tells part of the story, as Miley drastically revamped his arsenal in a manner that obviously paid dividends.
In particular, Miley ramped up usage of his cutter, which became his most-used and most-effective pitch, while burying his sinker and slider in favor of enhanced usage of a curve and change. He surrendered much more pull-side contact than before, but with a career-high 2.24 GB/FB rate, the shift-savvy Brewers were able to gobble up quite a few of those well-struck balls. Miley also induced weak contact on 19.5% of the balls put in play against him and ended the season with a career-low .269 BABIP-against.
That last figure — batting average on balls in play — is an interesting one to consider. Any change in Miley’s fortunes in that area, or in the number of balls that leave the yard, could reverse his turnaround. First, though, opposing hitters will have to find a way to solve Miley’s two favorite new offerings; they managed sub-.200 batting averages and sub-.300 slugging percentages against both his cutter and curve last year. Statcast was duly impressed, as it credited Miley with a .300 xwOBA that largely supports the weak .283 wOBA mark he held batters to.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Athletics “Considering” Matt Wieters
The Athletics are at least “considering” pursuit of veteran backstop Matt Wieters, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s unclear just how much interest the Oakland organization has; multiple unnamed rival organizations are also said to be involved.
Wieters, now 32, first qualified for free agency after the 2015 season. At the time, he was considered a high-quality, everyday backstop, but he was also coming off of two injury-plagued campaigns and took a qualifying offer to remain with the Orioles. Despite a subpar 2016 campaign, the Nationals promised him $21MM over two years (while also giving Wieters an opt-out chance that he did not ultimately take).
Add it all up, and Wieters owns a tepid .235/.303/.376 batting line in 1,200 plate appearances over the past three campaigns. Though he still draws average reviews for his blocking and throwing, Wieters has graded out as a negative in the pitch framing department. Of course, he’s also a respected veteran who seemed to suit the pitchers who worked with him in D.C., so there’s room for interpretation regarding his defensive value.
Wieters obviously does not profile as a regular receiver at this point, but the former fifth overall pick does still seem like a reasonable target for the right team. The fact that he hits from both sides of the plate adds to the appeal, along with his clubhouse gravitas. For the Athletics, there’s clearly room to improve a depth chart that’s presently topped by Josh Phegley and Chris Herrmann. Wieters ought to be an affordable option and still has a bit of pop; perhaps the A’s will stake a bet on the hope that he’ll be reinvigorated in a timeshare situation.
Bud Norris Hires Ballengee Group
Free agent reliever Bud Norris has made a late-breaking agency change. Per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter, Norris is now represented by the Ballengee Group.
Norris, who’s closing in on his 34th birthday, evidently hasn’t been pleased with the opportunities he has been afforded to this point on the open market. He’s coming off of a $3MM deal that he signed with the Cardinals last February, just before the start of Spring Training.
The St. Louis org received a quality contribution for its money, as Norris tossed 57 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with 10.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. He also recorded 28 saves after stepping into the closer’s role for the Cards. Norris sat at 95 mph with his four-seam fastball, continued to get good results with a cutter, and reached a 12% swinging-strike rate for the second-straight season.
That showing seemed likely to boost Norris’s market standing, but there has been little in the way of reported interest to this point. That isn’t necessarily unusual for a non-star reliever. Still, with just two weeks left until camps begin to open, his market outlook is unclear. MLBTR predicted that Norris would secure a two-year, $12MM deal on the open market, though that obviously represents only a best guess after contemplating a wide range of plausible outcomes.