Feb. 1: The Astros have formally announced the signing. Houston’s 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Jan. 31: The Astros have agreed to a one-year deal with lefty Wade Miley, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The O’Connell Sports Management client receives a $4.5MM guarantee and can tack on $500K in incentives, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds (Twitter links).
Miley becomes the latest mid-range starter to settle for a one-year pact after entering the offseason with a case for a multi-season arrangement. He’ll presumably step into the Houston rotation, though his incentives package includes provisions allowing him to earn either for starts or relief appearances, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (Twitter link).
This trip through free agency may not have been quite as financially rewarding as Miley might have hoped, but he landed with a clear contender and certainly fared better than he did the last time around. Miley settled for a minors pact last year with the Brewers after a rough two-season run, but turned things around after overcoming some health issues early in the season.
All told, Miley worked to a 2.57 ERA in 80 2/3 frames over 16 starts last year in Milwaukee. He averaged only 5.6 K/9 with 3.0 BB/9, but generated a robust 52.8% groundball rate and allowed only three home runs on the year.
In some regards, Miley was not a substantially different pitcher last year than he had been over the prior seven seasons. His swinging-strike rate sat just a half percentage point above his lifetime 8.6% mark; his average fastball velocity sat right at his career mean of ~92 mph. But that only tells part of the story, as Miley drastically revamped his arsenal in a manner that obviously paid dividends.
In particular, Miley ramped up usage of his cutter, which became his most-used and most-effective pitch, while burying his sinker and slider in favor of enhanced usage of a curve and change. He surrendered much more pull-side contact than before, but with a career-high 2.24 GB/FB rate, the shift-savvy Brewers were able to gobble up quite a few of those well-struck balls. Miley also induced weak contact on 19.5% of the balls put in play against him and ended the season with a career-low .269 BABIP-against.
That last figure — batting average on balls in play — is an interesting one to consider. Any change in Miley’s fortunes in that area, or in the number of balls that leave the yard, could reverse his turnaround. First, though, opposing hitters will have to find a way to solve Miley’s two favorite new offerings; they managed sub-.200 batting averages and sub-.300 slugging percentages against both his cutter and curve last year. Statcast was duly impressed, as it credited Miley with a .300 xwOBA that largely supports the weak .283 wOBA mark he held batters to.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Surprise… surprise… another one year deal!
The next CBA negotiations will be very interesting…
You mean long and very disturbing because there are some huge issues to be negotiated. Length of years on contracts, a bottom in spending by teams, MLB service time to start at AA so players can’t be held down they will be promoted quickly, stop penalizing teams for signing FA reward teams losing FA with additional picks & international signing money from MLB not subtracting from signing team cap signing teams to a 4 years cap in contract allow teams to offer 1 extra year of contract to their own free agents 5 year max contracts. NBA, Hockey, NFL have capped lengths of contracts to around 7 years make baseball 5 years since it’s all guaranteed money
Wouldn’t teams keep prospects at single A then? Maybe do something like 8 years after getting signed for high school and 7 years for college players. That would mean players get called up sooner and best minor leaguers get moved up quicker and become free agents sooner.
Simply let players accrue service time for being on a 40 man roster.
Guess Keuchel is officially gone.
Was just thinking that. Still want the Cards to kick the tires on an offer to Keuchel. You never can have enough pitching.
Happily yes
I wouldn’t assume that. Astros still have room for another starter, and a 1-year deal indicates that they would probably want to get someone under contract for 2020 before the season starts. Miley isn’t that guy, I guess, but Keuchel could be if they work out the right deal.
I like this signing for them. They lost Morton, yes and are also primed to probably lose Keuchel, but if Miley can pitch like he did last season and into the playoffs, it’ll be a great value signing for them.
If
A HUGE if. Based on his performance in BOS and BAL in recent years last year was clearly an outlier. Brewers got lucky with this guy in 2018. I’d be surprised if he makes it to June before HOU relegated him to the bullpen before DFAing him shortly thereafter.
Surprised Buchholtz is still out there. He showed enough in AZ and his upside is higher than Miley.
Brewers seem to get “lucky” quite often lol.
Right? It’s seems like MIL quit while they were ahead with Miley. If they made any effort to retain him after the season it wasn’t obvious.
Same could have been said about Morton. Seems he’s a cheap Kuechel.
Thats unlikely. Besides his ERA, nothing really stands out. Which is why he got a cheap one year deal and anibal sanchez got 2 years
The same could be said, to a certain extent, about Charlie Morton before he signed with the Astros. The Astros clearly have a way in place to extract the most from a pitcher. Gerit Cole, Justin Verlander, Brad Peacock–all pitchers that became clearly better after joining the Astros.
Morton throws 97 with a CB from hell.
He wasn’t doing that for the Pirates.
He has a solid GB% and also limits hard contact. That is more than just a good ERA
Sure. You have a point. But he had a .274 batting average on balls in play and a 5.7% home run per fly-ball rate. Both of those would be hard to substain. Thats why i have doubts He will look like he did last year. Will he still be good? Maybe. We will see what he looks like during the season.
So this means kuechel is officially off the Astros books I’m guessing
The incentives in his contract say that the Astros aren’t necessarily considering Miley as a starter. I don’t believe this changes anything regarding Keuchel.
Would his start that he only faced one batter in the playoffs qualify him for LOOGY?
Probably going to put up cy young numbers
So they got a LH starter for 1/3’rd of what Keuchel wants in an AAV…….for 5 years.
Just another cheap owner. Not dumb though.
He’s not cheap, he’s smart. Keuchel at minimum will require 3/45 and will probably produce the same as Miley in 2019. Additionally, Crane has to pay Springer, Cole, and Verlander next off-season. And a year later other contracts are due.
This is a great one year deal that provides future flexibility while addressing a pressing need.
“will probably produce the same” is hilarious, comparing Wade Miley to Keuchel
Is it really that crazy? Keuchel gave up 211 hits last year and his K/9 and BB/9 were not that different from Miley, who pitched in a more hitter-friendly ballpark. Keuchel obviously has a higher ceiling but we do not need to give out a 3-4 year deal to a guy who is declining when we have much more pressing issues next offseason and beyong. Miley shows some of the same traits and could present great value.
Keuchel tossed 200+ innings last season. Miley pitched 80. He’s not Dallas Keuchel. You can argue Keuchel isn’t worth the salary but you’ve certainly just downgraded. The Astros big mistake was not bringing Morton back. He didn’t cost the dollars nor the years.
if you think he will produce the same, you don’t know baseball. you’d be better off to not comment.
im gunna laugh if keuchel falls apart with his next team and miley turns out to be a revelation In the rotation with Astros. I’m coming back to this thread after the season
“if you think he will produce the same, you don’t know baseball. you’d be better off to not comment.”
@ lavey;
Why does he have to produce the same?
The man is being paid 1/3’rd of what Keuchel wants in 2019.
The Astros have the best pitching prospect in MiLB, as well as a few other pitchers that will be up in late 2019 and 2020. Better they didn’t get stuck with a declining Keuchel at a ridiculous salary for 4-5 years.
The Astros got the LH stopgap starting pitcher they needed. If Miley even does 160 IP with a 4.25 ERA the Astros made a sensational move.
Frankly, you’d be better off to not comment.
While Miley only threw 80 innings compared to Keuchel’s 211, take a look at their stats. Keuchel’s whip was 1.31 whereas Miley’s was 1.21. Keuchel’s ERA was 3.74 compared to Miley’s 2.57. Keuchel gave up more hits than any pitcher in the sport last year and his hits per nine was 9.3. Miley’s hits per nine was 7.9.
Sure, Keuchel’s is the more accomplished pitcher and his career numbers are better, but the Astros are looking for a pitcher to plug in behind Verlander and Cole. Miley, at that price, is perfect. It doesn’t make any sense to give Keuchel 18-20 per to be a 3-4 hole pitcher, which is what he is now. This was a good move by Luhnow. The rotation will be Verlander, Cole, McHugh, Miley and a mid of rookies in the 5 slot to limit their innings.
@puhl, this is my exact point I was going to respond with. So thank you. Also, Keuchel is a finesse pitcher that relies on getting calls on the corners with good break on his pitches. When he’s not getting the calls on the corners or his pitches aren’t breaking (or both), he gets shelled, and hard. Miley may end up being terrible, however I also strongly feel that Keuchel’s good days are behind him. I feel that his ERA for 2019 will be around 4 as an Astro or around 4.5 anywhere else.
Dallas face the DH Miley got to face pictures overall I don’t think there is different statistic wise as people think not since 2015
Dallas face DH basically Dallas is the better pitcher but not sure if he’s worth 3 times as much as Miley?
Translate into English please?
I’m an O’s fan, and when they cut you loose, to put this person in the Sam sentence as Keuchel is hilarious.
And people think Yankees are the delusional fans?
Wade Miley is terrible. With that said I wish the Red Sox got him back, because the Yankees enjoyed having him there!
you have a strange obsession with the Astros. Go worry about the Red Sox instead. Just because one guy is looking at it with rose-colored glasses doesn’t mean an entire fan base believes it.
Just like not all Astros fans are giant homers who think that Keuchel will go 22-4 with a 2.25 ERA this year. Some of us are realistic and have a strong understanding of regression analysis and how it applies to pitchers like Keuchel.
It’d be nice if people would stop lashing out at people who say something they don’t agree with. It’d also nice if people can take off their home glasses and try to see differing perspectives.
“He’s not cheap, he’s smart.”
@ astrosfan4life;
Yes, of course I know.
lol
I was sarcastically quoting people here that say the owners are “cheap and dumb” for not throwing away money on free agents that won’t fit into their situations. All teams have business plans and analyze the heck out of their objectives and their corresponding long-term budgets. MLB organizations are finally being run like real businesses.
Wade Miley had a career year in his age 31 and 10th MLB season. I honestly wouldn’t expect him to produce the same or even anywhere close.
I love how smart they are being. It’s best not to follow the NBA route where soon they will price fans out of their arenas due to their absurd contracts they are giving out.
Except the Astros will do some kind of voodoo on him and increase his spin right LOL ask Trevor Bauer to explain it
They did voodoo magic on Morton, so here’s hoping they have some left for Miley!
That’s just not how it works. Ticket prices are not tied to payroll in any significant way. Why anyone still believes this narrative is beyond me.
Just stay healthy.
Miley’s spin rate goes through the roof lolol
Low risk signing season
great signing, limits the pressure put on Valdez and James
I’m sure he’ll suddenly become a bonafide ace thanks to that magic elixir in Houston!
Marwin Gonzalez on a plane to Denver right now.
Please.
Im still waiting on the Padres to sign a major league pitcher ready to pitch in 2019…just 1 not asking for too much.
Why would a cheap 1 year deal take Houston out of the running for Keuchel ?
because you don’t give guarenteed contracts for them not to be in the rotation. so the rotation would seem full at this point. why spend another 60-80 million on a already full rotation also with cole and verlander hopefully able to workout a deal next year for big money. cant rap up too much money in the rotation. and keuchel isnt the sure bet verlander or cole are right now.
Or he will step into the long relief role McHugh held last year. AJ Hinch seems to like 2 Starters in the bullpen.
Suprised Gio Gonzalez has not signed a 1 year deal.
Yankees say come on down
Dammit! Well so much for my prediction of them re-signing Keuchel.
Nice signing. At that money could become a good long reliever/spot starter if Keuchel comes back.
Great signing. They needed at least one more starter. I lefty that can slot into the 4 or 5 spot is perfect. Now if we can get Keuchel that’d be great, but if we can’t it’s not the end of the world. I still say we need to acquire someone who we can anticipate being our #1 in 2020.
Maybe not 2020, but they believe they have that in Forest Whitley.
If you’re banking on a kid being you’re #1 when he has only pitched 14.1 innings at AA then you’re playing a risky game. Also, you typically need two aces to win a World Series. I wish they’d get one before next offseason.
Sign Cole and Whitley replaces JV
maybe Jeff luhnow knows something David Stearns knows…
As a Brewers fan I was hoping he would come back for another year. Best of luck to him with the Astros.
Anyone dumb enough to think he was going to get a multiyear deal must have forgotten he’s Wade Miley.
Miley averaged 5 innings a start and threw only 80 frames last season. I’m not surprised he didn’t get anymore at all. I certainly wouldn’t want to commit anymore dollars to him
Unfair to lok at Miley’s length per start last season. Milwaukee had an incredible BP and nobody (just 1) averaged 6IP per start.
It’s pretty fair to point out when the guy has mediocre results over the course of his career. He has one nice 80 inning stretch where he doesn’t pitch more than 5 innings. It’s certainly relevant.
wish wade the best with the astros. I did want the brewers to sign him, and am shocked they did not match that offer. especially the one year deal. would have been nice to get him back on a low contract as such. I am concerned with his consistency. he has never shown he can be effective year after year. who knows how he will fair in the AL but wish you the best wade. lot of passion and energy he brought to the crew.
The pixie dust from the last six weeks is over. Brewers finish in 3rd in the NL central. Book it.
Yep, definitely not booking that the team with the best record in the national league is going to drop to 3rd in the central with the team not losing anything of value.
He should come in a package with Clay Buchholz. Combined they are good for a half-season worth of pitching.
Well looks like Dallas Keuchel will not be heading back to Houston. He will probably get overpaid by the Phillies just so Philadelphia can get someone anyone to be willing to play in that god awful city. They grossly overpaid for Mccutcheon they were grossly overpaid for Dallas.
I can definitely see a situation where Keuchel and Miley both fit. Miley only through 80 innings last year, so he could be a good fit for the bullpen that has Tony Sipp as the only LHP there now. He could also be used in the role that McHugh was in last year in the bullpen, where he could be brought into the starting rotation on an as needed basis.
Tony sipp is a free agent…
agreed, keuchel as the #4, miley as the 5 until they call up whittaker or james (i think thats his name).
I don’t hate it and I hope to see him succeed, but it’s just underwhelming. These one year deals can’t make these players feel like teams’ are too invested in them. Let’s just hope we extend Verlander and Cole before the season starts. But the big kahuna: I don’t know how we let Cruz get away to the Twins.
Brantley is the primary DH
I HOPE I am wrong but Brantley as “primary DH” does not sound like Astros World Series Champs. That also likely means “primary DH’ for 112 games, and does not necessarily mean “primary DH” in the postseason because he is out for the year. Trust me – I want the Stros to win as bad as anybody – I am just scared right now that we are getting too cute.
Remind me who was the DH when they won the WS. Brantley is better.
They all used to be one year contracts. The trend of offering too much for too long is reversing, unless a player is elite.
I think Miley probably likes this deal if he can stay healthy and prove the end of last season wasn’t a fluke, he can sign a bigger free agent contract next season.
Clearly a stop-gap for Forrest Whitley in my opinion. If he exceeds expectations, then he’s another solid add to the rotation tho.
Wade Miley should have better results off setting pitching behind all the hard RHs in Houston.
:::yawn:::
dont forget though baseball is about what you’ve done recently and the new pitch mix he used last year has seemed to stall hitters. plus dont forget he was one of the top pitchers in the league in 2012-13 so he has a higher ceiling than most are giving him credit for on here.
Way to go cheap! Back to the old ways!
Next Player negotiation will result in a walk out and a lock out.
He didn’t have to accept the deal.
Miley was a stud for my fantasy team a few years ago. The league was setup so the worse the player, the better the team does
Miley seems like a good guy but this is a puzzler. You lose Morton. You look to lose Keuchel. This is the answer, a 5 inning guy, at best?
They still may sign Keuchel. They put incentives in Miley’s contract for both starts and relief appearances. They could sign Keuchel and use Miley out of the pen.
So was Dallas.
But they are bringing up a couple young pitchers they are high on.
I love this move! Miley is a bulldog, very underrated. He has a chance to make his contract look like one of the biggest values of the offseason! Good move, stros.
I hate to say this but I think its a loooooooong shot kuechel comes back, it would have already happened. Whitley is the future of that staff, astros need to save $ to pay its core hitters.
I like this move. The Astros needed another arm. Sounds like he could start or relieve or both.
I believe the Astros probably still have some interest in Keuchel, but now they have leverage.
DK may not be an ace, but he’s still a damn good pitcher. I think the Astros should offer 3/50. If Keuchel takes it, that’s a good deal. If he doesn’t, the Astros get the draft pick.
I’m not worried about the youngsters getting a chance because injuries will happen.
Losing Morton is fine, but the extreme possibility of losing both Kuechel and Gonzalez (Gattis too, I guess…) should be really concerning to Astros fans, especially since they’re expected to lose all of Cole, Verlander, Pressly, Rondon, Harris, and McHugh next offseason as well.
Honestly, the future outlook of the Astros does not look very good without major contributions from James, Whitley, and Tucker in the next year or so, which isn’t guaranteed.
Houston, we have a problem.
The team is still set to be elite in 2019. Just enjoy the ride and worry about the team future next offseason.
First losing these players don’t mean anything. Kuechel isn’t worth what he’s asking. Gattis isn’t worth a bench spot. And We have someone as good as Marwan. I doubt if CFM is going to last a whole season.