Reactions To The Stephen Strasburg Extension
The Nationals’ move to lock up Stephen Strasburg came out of nowhere, at least so far as public knowledge is concerned, and it’ll have wide-ranging repercussions for the organization and the broader market. Strasburg bypassed a chance at a major free agent sweepstakes to stay in D.C. for at least three seasons — that’s when he’ll have the first of two opt-out chances — and pick up a guarantee of $175MM over seven years. It’s a highly significant contract for many reasons, so it’s no surprise to see plenty of reactions rolling in:
- Agent Scott Boras provides some interesting details on the signing to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. After both sides gauged interest this spring, the agent and owner Ted Lerner hammered out the agreement over the weekend, per the report. Strasburg and his wife wanted to ink long-term with the Nats, said Boras, “so I really moved aggressive[ly] to get this deal done.” The super-agent says that the contract rewarded the organization for its “ethically and medically driven” handling of Strasburg through the Tommy John process, which also “has to do with why Stephen is so comfortable in Washington.” From the player’s side, the deal obviously keeps him where he wants to be, but also holds onto some upside. “For me, the big thing was the flexibility of the contract,” said Boras. “Stephen has a lot of security, and the opportunity to stay or leave. It works out well for both parties.’’
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs echoes that sentiment from an analytical perspective. He likes the idea of Strasburg taking the risk of pitching out the 2016 season off of the table, but also sees the merit in the club’s investment. As Cameron notes, Strasburg is younger than most free agent arms, and he could deliver plenty of value on the deal even if he ends up missing time over parts of it — particularly once the deferrals are accounted for.
- One notable element of this contract is that it sets a record for a Tommy John patient, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports notes. In the latest example of the Nationals’ investment in questionable elbows, Passan asks whether the organization is going against its own views of UCL replacement durability in making such a deal at this point in time. Jonah Keri of CBSSports.com also offers his thoughts, focusing in particular on the role of Boras and his cozy relationship with Nationals’ ownership.
- Jon Morosi of MLB Network argues that Strasburg’s absence from the coming free agent market could spur trade activity “far earlier than anyone expected.” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney likewise suggests that there’ll be increased focus on controllable starters from other clubs as a result of the move.
- I’m not sure I agree that the extension has a significant impact on this summer’s trade season, which already was likely to feature questions about high-quality starters who are currently under long-term control. Teams weighing deadline deals for starting pitching likely would not have changed their approach very much based upon the mere chance of landing Strasburg over the winter; after all, he would’ve been the clear prize and had multiple suitors, and his price tag would’ve been both astronomical and uncertain. Meanwhile, organizations with desirable trade assets may now actually see greater value in holding onto their arms, comfortable in the knowledge that there’ll be lots of demand even after the season. Plus, the Nats might well have been in the market for a rotation piece — and likely would’ve pursued Strasburg — had he not inked this contract, so the overall level of demand may not have changed much.
Minor MLB Transactions: 5/10/16
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Righty Vin Mazzaro has accepted an outright assignment with the Giants after clearing waivers, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. Mazzaro, who was recently designated for assignment after a dreadful outing, would have had the option of declining the assignment given his prior outrights and service time. Instead, the 29-year-old will head to Triple-A, where he’ll wait for another major league opportunity. He was solid there in the early going this season, allowing just one earned run in 14 1/3 innings prior to his brief call-up.
Free Agent Notes: Lincecum, Nathan, Oviedo
Fielding questions about the Orioles‘ interest in Tim Lincecum, executive VP Dan Duquette downplayed that likelihood and provided some hints as to the market’s development, as Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. In Duquette’s view, Lincecum is likely to sign with a west coast club and is likely to get a shot at a rotation. “He’s going to sign with a club that needs a starter,” said the O’s top baseball decisionmaker. “That’s what he wants to do, and I’m confident he’s going to get that opportunity.”
- The Diamondbacks are a theoretical suitor with a geographic match, but the club does not appear likely to get involved on Lincecum, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweets. While GM Dave Stewart says that the organization had scouts on hand for the showcase, he went on to say, “I don’t see us going any steps further.” Lincecum appears to be drawing fairly wide interest, but it’s still not clear which team will make him a handshake agreement of a starting role. We had heard that the 31-year-old could reach a decision over the weekend after his showcase on Friday, but that obviously didn’t happen.
- Last we checked in, veteran reliever Joe Nathan was still set on a comeback, and Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets an update. Nathan, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, is beginning a throwing program. There’s apparently at least some hope that he’ll be ready for game action by July 1st, though it would be pretty surprising to see him in the majors anywhere near that soon if he’s only now ramping up.
- Cuban righty Johan Oviedo is opening some eyes, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. An 18-year-old with a big frame, Oviedo is said to be working in the mid-nineties with his fastball, though of course scouts will be looking for quite a bit more than just that. He’s eligible to sign, but will be subject to bonus pool restrictions.
- Morgan Campbell of the Toronto Star provides an interesting look at the question of how the talent flow from Cuba to the majors may impact the game on the island. At present, stakeholders on the island merely watch as their best players depart, receiving no compensation. It’s certainly fair to raise doubts about the long-term impacts of that set of incentives, to say nothing of the other issues that have arisen in player movement out of Cuba. Of course, all indications are that a new system will be installed, but it remains to be seen how it’ll be structured.
Braves To Designate Matt Tuiasosopo
The Braves have designated outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo for assignment, per the MLB.com transactions page. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported earlier today that Tuiasosopo would be removed from the roster to make way for the return of infielder Gordon Beckham from the 15-day DL.
Tuiasosopo, who’ll turn 30 tomorrow, received just three plate appearances with Atlanta but nevertheless marked his first MLB action since 2013. Over 404 career plate appearances at the major league level, he owns a .206/.288/.353 batting line with a dozen long balls.
Andrelton Simmons To Undergo Thumb Surgery
Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons will undergo left thumb surgery, the club announced (h/t MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez; Twitter links). Simmons has suffered a “full thickness tear of the ulnar collateral ligament” in the thumb.
Angels GM Billy Eppler says that a typical recovery period for the procedure would be six to eight weeks, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. Notably, though, fellow middle infielder Jed Lowrie required what appears to be the very same procedure last year. His surgery took place in late April, and he did not return until the very end of July.
All told, it seems reasonable to think that Simmons can still have an impact in 2016, though obviously he’ll need a full-blown rehab build-up even if the recovery progresses well. Still, for a Halos club that’s been hit hard by injuries and is already five games under .500, it’s a major blow.
The 26-year-old Simmons was Eppler’s first major acquisition, changing hands at the outset of the offseason. The organization spent much of its remaining prospect capital to add a player who has staked a largely unassailable claim as the very best defender in baseball. While he’s never been anywhere near as useful at the plate — Simmons owns a lifetime .253/.301/.357 slash — the glove provided a lofty floor, and there was at least some hope that he’d trend up with the bat.
Things clearly haven’t gone quite as hoped. While Simmons has more or less continued his usual wizardry in the field, he has struggled out of the gate to a .219/.246/.281 batting line with just one home run in his first 118 plate appearances. To be fair, though, he’s still been quite a bit better than the player he replaced (Erick Aybar), though the organization is without its two best pitching prospects as a result of the deal.
Of course, Los Angeles’s interest in Simmons extends well beyond the present season. He’s controlled through 2020 under the extension he signed before the 2014 season with the Braves. The Halos owe Simmons $6MM this year and $47MM over the remaining four years of that contract.
While the club awaits the return of Simmons, it may need to rely on veteran utilityman Cliff Pennington at the position. Yunel Escobar could slide over to short, in theory, but he hasn’t played there for some time and Eppler has rejected that option (as Gonzalez tweets).
AL West Notes: Gattis, Trout, Calhoun, Hill, Felix
The Astros have optioned Evan Gattis to Double-A, where he’ll get comfortable behind the plate, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports (links to Twitter). Houston has yet to utilize the 29-year-old as a catcher, but he broke into the league in that position. With the organization one of several struggling with receiving depth, it seems he’ll have a chance to don the tools of ignorance once again. Gattis, who’s off to a rough start at the plate (.213/.269/.328), says that he’s excited at the development. Kaplan suggests that Gattis is unlikely to spend more than the requisite ten days on optional assignment.
Here’s more from the AL West:
- Angels GM Billy Eppler made clear that the organization is not going to begin entertaining the idea of trading superstar Mike Trout after the awful pitching news received today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. The Halos are looking hard at options for the rotation, he says, and still believes in its chances. “This team was up against a lot of adversity last year and fought to the end,” says Eppler. “We’ve got a lot of character, a lot of the same guys on the club. They will not back down from a fight.” Some aren’t so sure that’s the right approach for the Angels. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs argues that the team’s near-term outlook, depleted farm, and continued payroll constraints provide cause to at least consider taking offers on Trout, who’d surely draw unprecedented trade interest. ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, meanwhile, draws on that piece and looks at a few organizations that could plausibly make a run at a player whose immense productivity and appealing contract make him the single most valuable asset in the sport.
- The Angels have another quality young outfielder in Kole Calhoun, and Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times profiles his unlikely path to the majors. Long overlooked despite his performances as an amateur, Calhoun has turned into an eighth-round hidden gem for the Halos. “I don’t know what all of professional baseball was thinking,” said former scouting director Eddie Bane. “We were just dumb.”
- Former Angels prospect Hunter Green is sticking with his plans to retire, Mike DiGiovanna writes for Baseball America. The wiry lefty dealt with significant injury issues, and ultimately decided to hang ’em up after failing to get back on track. While the organization tried to convince him to stick with it, the former second-rounder has apparently decided to move on from the sport.
- Having seemingly come from out of nowhere to where he is now — a quality starter for the Athletics — Rich Hill‘s back story remains of interest. According to Orioles catcher Matt Wieters, Hill showed plenty of signs back when he caught the southpaw in the upper minors, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. “The stuff for a left-hander, I always thought was something you don’t see much with the type of pitches he could throw,” said Wieters.
- Felix Hernandez has provided the Mariners with typically productive innings, but there’s some cause for real concern, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs writes. The veteran righty has seen his velocity steadily decline in years past, but now he’s experienced a sudden drop-off that’s left him sitting below 90 mph with his average fastball. Meanwhile, he’s also struggling to hit the zone. While Hernandez has thus far managed to generate plenty of soft contact, the 30-year-old certainly doesn’t look like the same pitcher he has been in years past. Whether he can continue to put up ace-like results remains to be seen.
Notes On Tim Lincecum Showcase
Did you miss Tim Lincecum‘s showcase today? Despair not — Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area has uploaded the full video right here. He also has the story on Lincecum’s day. The two-time Cy Young winner says that he’s “simplified” things on the mound. “It just feels more consistent,” he said. “… I’m not searching for that extra gear to try and throw harder anymore.” Check here and here for teams that were reportedly set to attend.
Here are some more notes on the 31-year-old’s outing:
- In terms of results, Eric Longenhagen of ESPN.com writes that Lincecum showed reasonably well, but didn’t exactly do anything to suggest that he’s the ace of old. He was visibly fit, sat in the upper-80s to low-90s with his fastball (topping out at 92), and presented three useful offspeed pitches, but it doesn’t seem that any of his offerings look ready to dominate major league hitters. For Longenhagen, Lincecum looks more like a reliever and spot starter than a regular rotation piece.
- As for next steps, Lincecum may well have a deal sooner than later. Jon Heyman of MLB Network hears organizations are “lining up” (Twitter link). And Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the righty’s camp thinks a contract could come together by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, Jon Morosi of MLB Network suggests on Twitter that Lincecum’s timeline could allow him to reach a major league rotation before the end of the month, but from my perspective that looks to be a rather optimistic scenario for a pitcher who’s coming off of hip surgery (if he’s even able to secure a firm offer of a rotation opportunity).
- Lincecum himself said he’s prepared to field interest from all quarters, as Pavlovic reported in the above-linked piece. “I think I know there are other teams [besides the Giants] out there that are looking for starters right now and I wouldn’t have to go to Triple-A and have to work my way behind somebody,” Lincecum said. “To be honest with you I’d rather start, but I know I need to get timing with others hitters in the box and work my way through it that way.” While suggesting that he has some preferences in mind, Lincecum did say that he hasn’t decided what’s the most important to me right now.”
- The veteran righty also chatted with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links), saying that he didn’t feel that staying on the west coast was strictly necessary. He added that he’s only interested in one-year arrangements, though frankly it would be surprising if organizations had much inclination to go beyond that anyway.
- Whether or not Lincecum has any slight preferences to stay out west, we already know that the Giants have at least some interest in considering him as a swingman. Shea adds that the Angels have “legitimate interest,” too, and that the Dodgers are also “in the mix.” Of course, it seems likely that Lincecum and his representatives will be looking to land with an organization that will commit to giving him a chance to start, and that will be based in large part on individual teams’ scouting assessments — making it difficult to handicap things at present.
- Steve Adams and I chatted about Lincecum on today’s MLBTR podcast, which obviously occurred before he took the mound. But I’d say that our thoughts remain relevant after his showing today, which did more to suggest he’s recovered well from the hip procedure than to indicate any hope that he’ll reverse the fall-off that came well before it.
Twins Sign Nick Greenwood
Here are the day’s minor transactions:
- The Twins have agreed to a minor league deal with lefty Nick Greenwood, as reflected on the MLB.com transactions page and as MLBTR has confirmed. Greenwood, 28, has 36 major league frames on his ledger, with a 5.25 ERA and 4.3 K/9 versus 1.3 BB/9, while working almost exclusively as a reliever. But he’s pitched mostly as a starter in the minors, and has turned in three quality outings for the indy league New Britain Bees thus far in 2016. Greenwood has spun 19 scoreless innings on the year, with 17 strikeouts against only four walks and 13 hits. He’ll certainly enter a situation with plenty of opportunity in Minnesota, where there’s been a good deal of recent turnover in the pitching staff.
Giants Designate Vin Mazzaro
The Giants have designated right-handed Vin Mazzaro for assignment, as Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets. He’ll be replaced on the roster by fellow righty Albert Suarez, whose contract was purchased from Triple-A.
Mazarro, 29, only made two appearances for San Francisco, but the second was something to remember — for all the wrong reasons. He surrendered six hits, a walk, and seven runs while retiring just one batter.
Of course, there have been better days in the past. In his best year, Mazzaro put up 73 2/3 frames of 2.81 ERA ball for the Pirates back in 2013. That was the only season in which he’s walked less than three batters per nine and carried a groundball rate over 50%.
Roberto Perez Out 8-12 Weeks Following Thumb Surgery
MAY 6: Perez will miss the next eight to 12 weeks as he recovers from the operation, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (via Twitter).
MAY 5: Indians catcher Roberto Perez will undergo surgery on his fractured right thumb, the club announced. It’s not yet known how long the procedure and resulting rehab will keep him out.
There had been at least some hope that Perez would avoid surgery, which presumably would have held out the promise of at least a somewhat shorter recovery timetable. Evidently, that was not a viable option, and Indians manager Terry Francona has suggested that there may not be that much of a difference in terms of time missed regardless.
Cleveland certainly will miss Perez’s presence behind Yan Gomes in the catching ranks, though the team was able to acquire Chris Gimenez to fill in. Gomes has continued his offensive lull from 2015, increasing the need for an alternative, though Perez had only received 15 plate appearances thus far. Last year, Perez, was one of the game’s more useful reserve receivers, compiling a .228/.348/.402 batting line in 226 plate appearances while also rating well behind the dish (according to Baseball Prospectus).