AL East Notes: Rays, Drew, Pineda, Lester
Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron provides an interesting look at team age, weighted for anticipated playing time. The unsurprising result is that the oldest current MLB roster belongs to the Yankees. With the Red Sox and Blue Jays also falling in the top five, and the Rays landing in the top half with what Cameron calls a "sneaky old" roster, the American League East would appear to be the most veteran-laden division in the game.
- The loss of pitchers Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Jeremy Hellickson has exposed the fact that the Rays are thin on pitching depth in their system, says Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com (Twitter links). Gammons notes that, despite having five of the first 79 picks in the 2010 draft and a whopping ten of the first 60 choices in 2011, the only major leaguer to have emerged from those additions is infielder Derek Dietrich (who, of course, has since been dealt for fellow infielder Yunel Escobar).
- Looking at the bigger picture for the Rays, the club is still looking for a location to target for a new ballpark, as the Associated Press (via ESPN.com) reports. One possibility is to land in the city after which the club is named. "Tampa is obviously very, very attractive on the list," said club owner Stuart Sternberg, "and we expect to at some point, hopefully sooner, look there as well as some other parts of the region." The organization still needs to undertake "a full-out exploration" of possible sites in the area, including Tampa and St. Petersburg, Sternberg said. Tampa's current lease — at the St. Petersburg-located Tropicana Field — has often been noted as a significant hindrance for the team's spending capacity, and runs through the 2027 season.
- Injuries to the middle infield have not changed the Yankees' stance on Stephen Drew, according to principal owner Hal Steinbrenner. As MLB.com's Barry M. Bloom reports, Steinbrenner said that he is "pretty content with [the Yankees'] infield right now," especially given the early returns on some of the club's lower-profile offseason additions. "I'm happy with a couple of our Minor League free-agent signings — [Yangervis Solarte] and [Dean Anna]. Jeter has been healthy. So far, I'm pretty content with where we are, but I will always analyze options." (Anna was actually acquired via trade, though certainly he was the same type of addition.)
- The Yankees are also enjoying the excellent early showing from Michael Pineda, who was picked up in a rare swap of highly touted young talent. (Jesus Montero, of course, went to Seattle in that deal.) Continuing a strong Spring Training run, in 12 innings over two starts, Pineda has allowed just two earned runs and has struck out 12 batters while walking only two. As Tony Blengino of Fangraphs writes, a full return to form for Pineda would be "basically unprecedented in baseball history," with the one notable exception of another outstanding young pitcher who returned from an early-career shoulder injury to post a Hall-of-Fame career: Jim Palmer.
- Red Sox hurler Jon Lester projects to be worthy of a six-year, $145MM deal in free agency, according to ESPN.com's Dan Szymborski. Other than sticking in Boston, Lester could draw interest from teams like the Cubs, Mariners, Giants, and Tigers, in Szymborski's estimation.
Agent Says D’Backs Should Promote Archie Bradley
Top prospect Archie Bradley should be promoted to the big league club, his agent Jay Franklin tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Arizona GM Kevin Towers denied that the 21-year-old was being held down over service-time considerations.
"I think it's very apparent what is going on in Arizona," said Franklin. "Every ballplayer that is playing minor league baseball works his tail off to get an opportunity to play in the big leagues. Archie Bradley has proven to the Diamondbacks organization that he has deserved that opportunity by keeping his mouth shut and letting his numbers speak for his chance to pitch in the major leagues."
Of course, it is well accepted by observers that teams do (and should) consider MLB service time in determining when to promote top prospects. Here at MLBTR, we just broke down the timing issues for some of the best prospects around the league who could be brought to the bigs this year.
For Bradley, who is for some the top-rated pitching prospect who has yet to see MLB action, an appearance on the big league roster before the end of the month would cost Arizona the opportunity to control him for an additional season. Likewise, avoiding Super Two status (and with it an additional year of arbitration eligiblity) would require the club to hold Bradley out until some time between mid-May and early June, depending upon how this year's league-wide promotions shake out. The benefits to the team of adding control and lowering cost, of course, can come with a countervailing effect on the player (assuming, at least, that there would be no harm to the player's development — a highly subjective consideration).
For multiple reasons, clubs are loath to say that their determinations are based upon such considerations. For a Diamondbacks team that has had injury and performance issues in its rotation in the season's early going, there has been widespread speculation as to whether the team would call up Bradley.
But Towers said that he has legitimate baseball reasons not to go to the hyped young righty at this point. He cited two primary considerations in an interview with Rosenthal: the desire to avoid undue pressure in the middle of a tough start for the team, and the fact that Bradley struggled toward the end of the spring. "If it gets to the point where we straighten this thing out and it's a more positive environment here and he's throwing the ball well," said Towers, "we'll do it regardless of the clock."
On the whole, it seems quite unlikely that Franklin has an actionable complaint (or that he has any such intention). It is, after all, quite common for outstanding young players to experience just this situation. But for a player who many expect to turn into a top-line starter, this early relationship issue — Rosenthal describes it as a "spar" between agent and GM — will certainly be worth watching as time goes on.
Rays’ Matt Moore To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
APRIL 14: Moore will undergo Tommy John surgery, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The young hurler said that he decided to have the procedure after experiencing discomfort while throwing this afternoon. "What was coming out, it's a shame to be have to be shut down right now but it just wasn't comfortable," Moore said. "Being stuck in the position I am right now, where it's not exactly comfortable but it's not exactly completely broke, it's kind of one of those things where you know it's going to get worse."
APRIL 10: Moore, the team, and the doctors they've consulted are still assessing the injury and the options, according to the updated report from Topkin. "What [executive VP Andrew Friedman] wanted to do was discuss it in more depth [today] based on the results as we get them," Maddon said. "We need to get all the facts and see how we want to proceed with this, see if surgery is necessary, if it's not necessary, we're still waiting to find out."
A contrast-aided MRI conducted yesterday is expected to help provide answers. One question, according to Topkin, is whether all or part of the damage was pre-existing, which will require comparison to past scans. "I don't think it's fully torn from what I understand," said Maddon, "but I don't know that. The test with the dye would probably be more conclusive."
APRIL 9: Rays manager Joe Maddon said that it is "not a slam dunk surgery right now" after Moore's tests and consultations today, tweets Topkin. Discussions about how to proceed will continue tomorrow.
APRIL 8: The injury that drove Rays starter Matt Moore from his start yesterday involves his UCL, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). Moore, 24, will see Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion, as was reported earlier today.
UCL tears are commonly associated with the Tommy John procedure, of course, as that is the surgical option in the event of a tear. As Passan notes, pitchers can occastionally attempt to rehab and pitch through a tear if it is minor enough, though in that situation any delay would push back the timetable in the event that surgery is ultimately necessary.
The club had sounded optimistic earlier this morning, but the outlook apparently took a downturn as the day went along, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweeted earlier this evening. Moore, one of the most promising young arms in the game, is in the midst of a five-year, $14MM extension that also includes three option years covering the 2017-19 seasons. Though Tampa has options to fill in for him in the near term — including Nate Karns and Erik Bedard — the team is already dealing with the loss of Jeremy Hellickson for the early part of the season and the suspension of prospect Alex Colome.
Quick Hits: Puig, Yankees, Lester, Tigers, Blackouts
For some players, just getting the chance to play is the biggest hurdle. That certainly holds true for Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig, whose journey out of Cuba and into Major League Baseball is perhaps more astounding than anyone realized. Jesse Katz of Los Angeles Magazine provides a narrative of Puig's unbelievable tale.
Here are a few notes from around the game:
- The Yankees come in at a surprising second in the early-season defensive shift count, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required). As Olney notes, that kind of decision requires organizational commitment on every level, and two offseason infield acquisitions — Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts — played an important part in the first discussions involving players.
- Red Sox players view hurler Jon Lester as worthy of the kind of huge payday that the club's front office seems somewhat unwilling to give him, Olney adds. The view from the clubhouse is obviously not likely to drive a decision, but Olney notes that players are keeping a keen eye on how the team's ace is treated.
- For Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, the big issue facing the club is health, George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press reports. He said that the team's bullpen depth at the minor league level is a strength, that the righty-heavy lineup was driven by having good options that happen to hit from that side of the plate, and that he was comfortable with the team's shortstop options — especially with Eugenio Suarez and Hernan Perez available in the minors.
- The MLB blackout policy is harmful to the game's long-term development, opines Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Passan traces the league's determined fight to maintain territorial blackouts and its connection to the local TV money that has had such a substantial impact on the MLB player market.
Injury Notes: Anderson, Moore, Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox
Needless to say, the season has gotten of to a rough start in terms of injury news. Offering some hope, perhaps, Baseball America's J.J. Cooper writes (answering a reader question) that two-time Tommy John patients have a better track record of recovery than is perhaps commonly thought. Here's the latest on a few situations around the league that have (or could have had) hot stove implications:
- Rockies starter Brett Anderson is expected to be out for a lengthy stretch with a broken index finger, as he will need four to six weeks to recover before rehabbing, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com (via Twitter). The 26-year-old, who has had more than his share of injury troubles in recent campaigns, will undergo surgery to have pins inserted in the finger, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). Anderson was a major offseason acquisition for the Rockies, coming over in exchange for one-time top prospect Drew Pomeranz, who has been working out of the pen for the Athletics this year. Fortunately for Colorado, the team appears to have enough in-house options to cover in the meantime.
- Rays starter Matt Moore played catch today as he and the team assess whether the young lefty can avoid Tommy John surgery, according to a report from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. "Actually [trainer Ron Porterfield] said he threw okay," said manager Joe Maddon, "but I'm waiting to hear back from him what the final analysis is. Nothing yet. [Porterfield] said he turned it loose a little bit too, so we'll see. That was probably a good test for him. The word pain was not used. [Porterfield] told me he actually threw the ball pretty good."
- For the Phillies, starter A.J. Burnett intends to pitch through a hernia, and the team will finally welcome back reliever Mike Adams from the DL in the coming days, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports. Adams was a major free agent addition last year, but threw only 25 innings of 3.96 ERA ball last year before going down to a labrum and rotator cuff tear. Adams' contract contains a $6MM club option for 2015 that would vest if he throws 60 innings this year, but that provision will be voided if he is not available on Opening Day next year because of the shoulder issues (since they arose before the end of the 2014 season).
- With the Yankees dealing with multiple injuries and uncertainty in the infield, the obvious question is whether the team will revisit the possibility of signing Stephen Drew. John Harper of the New York Daily News argues that the team should do just that, noting that Drew can upgrade up the middle this year while providing value in any future years he signs on for. But Wallace Mathews of ESPNNewYork.com reports cites a source who says that there is "no way" the team will sign Drew or fellow free agent Kendrys Morales.
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia got good news today, as he learned that his left wrist issues do not appear to be serious, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reported on Twitter. As fellow Herald reporter Scott Lauber reported later this afternoon, an MRI showed no structural damage that would warrant concern. The team has confirmed the reports while adding that closer Koji Uehara has no structural damage in his shoulder, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal tweets.
Blue Jays Designate Jeremy Jeffress For Assignment
April 13: The Blue Jays were not able to trade Jeffress, and have placed him on waivers, Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca tweets.
April 4: The Blue Jays announced that they have designated reliever Jeremy Jeffress for assignment, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. In a corresponding move, the team recalled righty Marcus Walden to take his roster spot, the club announced.
Jeffress, 26, gave up three hits and a run tonight in what could have been his last appearance for Toronto. He has seen MLB time in five seasons, but has never logged more than 15 1/3 innings in any one season. Jeffress has yet to harness his big arm, as his career 6.7 BB/9 tally in the bigs would indicate. He did put up outstanding results last year, as he put up a 0.87 ERA in 10 1/3 big league frames (10.5 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9) and a 1.39 mark in his 32 1/3 minor league innings (8.4 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9).
Quick Hits: Extensions, Scouting, Tommy John
There have been a number of noteworthy, research-oriented pieces written in recent days with strong hot stove implications. Here are a few worthwhile reads:
- Ben Lindbergh, writing for FOX Sports, analyzes trends in roster turnover over baseball history. He finds that the apparent boom in extensions — driven by TV money, changes in PED trends, and other factors, in concert with revenue sharing and the luxury tax — has halted (and may be reversing) the trend of increasing player movement since the inception of free agency.
- Over at Fangraphs, Tony Blengino analyzes the risks in long-term pitching deals and Wendy Thurm breaks out every player on a 40-man roster by contract type (fielders and pitchers). Blengino looks at comparables for top starters such as Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander, examining how their peers fared after their prime-aged years. Ultimately, he concludes: "There is nothing wrong with paying premium dollars to premium talent, but there is something inherently inefficient in paying premium dollars for an inordinate number of years, multiple years before a club has to do so."
- Sticking with extensions, Yahoo's Jeff Passan looks at the union's difficulties in dealing with seemingly team-friendly, option-laden extensions. Baseball is a $9 billion industry, writes Passan, and as it grows, the MLBPA wants the maximum amount of money going to player salaries, not owners' pockets. However, in some instances, it's simply too difficult for players to turn down life-changing dollars. Passan spoke with one agent who said his client couldn't even grasp the concept of $1MM after growing up in poverty in a Latin American country, so when he was presented with an eight-figure extension offer, he couldn't bring himself to turn it down, even though he was worth more. Passan also writes that some agents that fear their clients could be poached by another agent will advise a player to take an extension to ensure they receive their commission. One GM tells Passan that two club options has become a starting point in negotiations — a thought that would've been laughable a generation ago. (For addtional context on the subject of options, I recently broke down MLB's use of options myself, looking at both overall trends and different option types.)
- In a must-read piece on MLB's international player market, Ben Badler of Baseball America provides a fascinating — and troubling — profile of the scouting and signing of young international prospects. Badler paints a picture of a system that is racing towards younger players and earlier commitments, driven by actors who dislike that cycle but feel powerless to contest it.
- In a fascinating interview on Sirius XM's MLB Network Radio with Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette (audio link), famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews says that the recent run of Tommy John surgeries is a trend, not just coincidence. In his view, elbow ligament issues find their roots in a pitcher's amateur time. "So you can usually go back and see a minor injury from when they were a young kid throwing youth baseball that was not recognized, but it set them up for a major injury somewhere down the road," said Andrews. "If we can keep these kids clean through high school, then we’re going to see a lot less number of them getting hurt as they become mature college players and professional players. So you’ve got to prevent it at a young age."
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Minor Moves: Ciriaco, Mazzaro, Bixler, Accardo
The day's minor moves:
- The Royals have assigned infielder Pedro Ciriaco to Triple-A after he cleared outright waivers, tweets Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star. Ciriaco, 28, will have to wait in the minors for another big league opportunity to open with Kansas City's middle infield. The club just called up Johnny Giavotella to fill in for injured second baseman Omar Infante, who is expected to return to action soon without a DL trip.
- Pirates reliever Vin Mazzaro has accepted an outright assignment from the team to Triple-A, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune (via Twitter). That is a good result for a Pittsburgh club that had expected to lose the 27-year-old righty, who was an effective piece for them last year.
- Utility man Brian Bixler has been released by the Phillies, according to the International League transactions page. Bixler, 31, had been playing with the Phils' Triple-A affiliate. He last appeared in the bigs in 2012 with the Astros.
- The independent ball Atlantic League has made two notable additions today, according to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com (Twitter links). Right-hander Jeremy Accardo, an eight-year MLB veteran, has inked with the Long Island Ducks. And shortly after being released by the Red Sox, 29-year-old outfielder Scott Cousins has joined the Camden Riversharks.
- The Dodgers have outrighted Mike Baxter, who has cleared waivers and been assigned to Triple-A, according to the PCL transactions page. The outfielder was designated for assignment to create 40-man space for another DFA'd player in Colt Hynes. Baxter, 29, struggled at the MLB level last year, but had a strong 2012 campaign (.263/.365/.413 in 211 plate appearances).
- With this move, only four players are left in DFA limbo: Seth Rosin (Rangers, Rule 5), Pedro Ciriaco (Royals), Hector Noesi (Mariners), and Jeremy Jeffress (Blue Jays). As always, you can track DFA situations past and present using MLBTR's DFA Tracker.
Avisail Garcia To Undergo Season-Ending Labrum Surgery
The White Sox have announced that young outfielder Avisail Garcia will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn left shoulder labrum. Acquired in last year's Jake Peavy deal, the 22-year-old will join the other main piece of that 3-way swap (Jose Iglesias) in missing the 2014 campaign.
Garcia, who has already gained 167 days of service entering the year, will remain on track to qualify for Super Two status after the 2015 season, assuming that he is able to regain an MLB role next year. In 341 big league plate appearances in his still-young career, Garcia has a .287/.323/.411 triple-slash. He was rated the game's 74th-best prospect before last season by Baseball America. The biggest loss for Chicago, of course, may simply be the playing time and development that the club hoped for from Garcia over 2014.
Meanwhile, Chicago will presumably give most of the playing time at the corner outfield to Alejandro De Aza (who was displaced at center by the trade for Adam Eaton) and Dayan Viciedo. While it has long been believed that one of those players could be available in trade, the South Siders will surely be less inclined to move one of them at this point. The team also has Leury Garcia and just-recalled Jordan Danks available in the outfield.
Service Time Considerations For Top Prospects
Now that we are over a week into the season, the time is fast approaching when top prospects that have yet to accrue any MLB service time can safely be brought up without the sacrifice of a year of control for their team. With less than 172 days left in the season, players who have no prior MLB time can no longer reach a full year by straight-ahead counting. (Remember: a year of service is achieved at 172 days on the active roster or big league DL; while a season has more than 172 days, a player cannot accrue more than one year of service for each season.)
However, MLB rules provide that players accrue service time if they spend less than 20 days on optional assignment in a given year. Thus, we are still about a week and a half away from the point that prospects who are already on the 40-man (and thus currently on optional assignment) can be called up while still preserving six full seasons of future team control.
Looking at the Baseball America Top 100 prospects, the following top prospects (with rank and team) are in the minors at present, have yet to accrue any MLB service, and are projected by BA to be ready for MLB action at some point in the current season:
Position Players
Byron Buxton (#1, Twins); Oscar Taveras (#3, Cardinals); Javier Baez (#5, Cubs); Miguel Sano (#6, Twins); Kris Bryant (#8, Cubs); Gregory Polanco (#10, Pirates); Francisco Lindor (#13, Indians); Addison Russell (#14, Athletics); Maikel Franco (#17, Phillies); George Springer (#18, Astros); and Jonathan Singleton (#82, Astros).
Pitchers
Archie Bradley (#9, D'Backs); Jon Gray (#12, Rockies); Jameson Taillon (#22, Pirates); Kyle Zimmer (#23, Royals); Eddie Butler (#24, Rockies); Andrew Heaney (#30, Marlins); Alex Meyer (#45, Twins); Marcus Stroman (#55, Blue Jays); Eduardo Rodriguez (#65, Orioles); and Rafael Montero (#68, Mets).
Of course, several of those players — notably, Sano and Taillon, who are both out for the season — may not have any realistic shot at this point of seeing time in the bigs this year.
For those players, the real key is Super Two status. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes wrote in October, qualification has landed between 2.122 and 2.146 years of service in recent years. To be safe, teams hoping to dodge an extra arbitration payday will want to wait until the calendar flips from May to June to promote the above-listed prospects.
Still other players have already seen some MLB time in years prior and are waiting in the minors for a chance at the bigs. Dylan Bundy (#15, Orioles; 15 days of service) and Jimmy Nelson (#96, Brewers; 27 days service) are both within several weeks of being ready for promotion without costing a year of future control, though the former is still working back from Tommy John. Others — Kevin Gausman (#20, Orioles; 71 days service); Matt Davidson (#72, White Sox; 50 days service); Jake Marisnick (#79, Marlins; 69 days service); and Allen Webster (#88, Red Sox; 44 days service) – would need to stay down for a good bit longer for their clubs to keep that extra season. That group will be among the most interesting names to watch, since it is easy to imagine their employers being tempted both to use them in the bigs and to keep their service clocks paused.
Then, of course, there are the players who have already seen time in the season's early going. The following players will surpass their first year of MLB service unless they are optioned down for much of the season (service shown as of start of 2014):
Position Players
Xander Bogaerts (#2, Red Sox; 42 days service); Nick Castellanos (#25, Tigers; 29 days service); Travis d'Arnaud (#38, Mets; 44 days service); Billy Hamilton (#43, Reds; 28 days service); Jackie Bradley (#50, Red Sox; 59 days service); Kolten Wong (#58, Cardinals; 45 days service); Chris Owings (#66, Diamondbacks; 27 days service); Marcus Semien (#91, White Sox; 27 days service); and Michael Choice (#98, Rangers; 29 days service).
Pitchers
Taijuan Walker (#11, Mariners; 31 days service); Yordano Ventura (#26, Royals; 13 days service); Carlos Martinez (#31, Cardinals; 73 days service); Erik Johnson (#63, White Sox; 27 days service); Jake Odorizzi (#67, Rays; 42 days service); Trevor Bauer (#83, Indians; 25 days service); and James Paxton (#99, Mariners; 27 days service).
Bradley, Semien, Choice, and Bauer (who was just promoted for one start) all have some chance of spending most of their years in the minors, though each could certainly earn a MLB spot. The other players listed all seem to be set up for ongoing, regular big league roles unless they falter.
These aren't all of the young players whose rise to the big leagues will be impacted by service time considerations, of course. But the above discussion should give you a fair idea of where others would fall, based upon their service time and development timeline.