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Avisail Garcia

Marlins Notes: Reynolds, Hernandez, Bullpen, Neidert, Sixto

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The Marlins were on the hunt for outfield upgrades all winter, eventually culminating in multi-year free agent deals with Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Neither player required parting with young talent, but the Fish looked into potential higher-impact acquisitions on the trade market.

Miami has long had interest in prying star center fielder Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald shed some light on the teams’ discussions. The Bucs and Marlins discussed permutations that would’ve involved top shortstop prospect Kahlil Watson — Miami’s first-round pick last summer — headed back as part of a deal. However, Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins balked at including both Watson and 2020 #3 overall pick Max Meyer in a Reynolds trade.

Baseball America placed both Watson and Meyer among the back half of their Top 100 prospects this winter. Watson, a lefty-hitting shortstop with big bat speed and athleticism, fell to the Marlins at 16th in last year’s draft but signed for the 10th-highest bonus. That better reflected how evaluators viewed him as an amateur prospect, and he’s generally regarded as one of the highest-upside players in the minors. Meyer, meanwhile, has one of the minors’ best fastball-slider combinations and struck out 27.2% of Double-A hitters in his first full pro season. Prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about his size and command consistency, but he boasts a high-octane arsenal and isn’t that far from MLB readiness.

Parting with both Watson and Meyer would’ve been quite a blow to the Miami farm system, but it reflects the huge asking price the Pirates can justifiably set with four years of arbitration control over Reynolds. Reports going back to last summer’s trade deadline have suggested the Bucs preferred to build around him rather than move him. Reynolds told reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) this afternoon the Pirates haven’t approached him about an extension this offseason, and they’re set to go to an arbitration hearing to determine his 2022 salary after not agreeing to terms yesterday. Still, the 27-year-old downplayed the notion that a hearing could affect his relationship with the organization. “I’m an adult,” he said. “I can handle it. I don’t care. I have a pretty good idea of what’ll be said and all that. We’ll prepare, and we’ll be fine.”

Jackson and Mish write the Marlins and Pirates may eventually revisit trade talks, although it’ll again be difficult to pry him out of Pittsburgh. The Herald reports the Marlins also had some pre-lockout discussions with the Blue Jays regarding corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández, but those conversations are no longer active. Soler’s signing to play right field would seem to close the door on the possibility of Miami making a run at another corner outfielder/DH option like Hernández.

Speaking with reporters (including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com) this afternoon, general manager Kim Ng expressed her confidence in the Miami outfield. She pointed to García and Bryan De La Cruz as options to see some time in center field, while Jackson and Mish write that Jesús Sánchez could get a look there as well. Ng didn’t expressly rule out the possibility of further moves on the position player side, but she suggested it was more likely they’d look to add another arm to the bullpen.

“As I mentioned, the bat was first and foremost, and making sure that we secured that and what the parameters of that looked like,” Ng said (via De Nicola). “And now we’re definitely focused on relievers. I will say that I’ve gotten some nice reports on some of the guys here, so we might be able to pull from within as well.”

Among those internal possibilities is right-hander Nick Neidert. A well-regarded starting pitching prospect early in his career, Neidert has yet to find success in 44 MLB innings. The Marlins are deep in rotation options, and manager Don Mattingly told reporters today that Neidert will transition to a bullpen role (De Nicola link). Despite his profile as a changeup specialist — which theoretically should aid him against opposite-handed batters — Neidert has been hit at a .314/.444/.500 clip by lefties in the majors. He was similarly ineffective against southpaws in Triple-A last season (.306/.393/.471), and the bullpen role may afford Mattingly the opportunity to deploy him more often with the platoon advantage.

At present, the Marlins look likely to open the year with a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Elieser Hernández and Jesús Luzardo. That’s a particularly strong top end, and Miami has high-upside young arms like Meyer, Edward Cabrera and Sixto Sánchez who could factor into the mix at some point.

Sánchez has already had some MLB success, but he missed the entire 2021 season due to injury and will also begin this year on the injured list as he recovers from last July’s shoulder surgery. De Nicola tweets that the fireballing 23-year-old is currently a third of the way through a six-week shutdown period. Given that he won’t even pick up a ball until at least a few weeks into the season, it seems likely he’ll spend a fairly significant amount of time on the IL to open the year.

Latest On Marlins’ Outfield

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The Marlins headed into the offseason looking for at least one outfield upgrade and checked one addition off the box prior to the lockout when securing Avisail Garcia on a four-year, $53MM contract. They’re still hoping to add “at least one more” outfielder when the current transaction freeze lifts, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald writes, which meshes well with recent reports tying the Fish to myriad outfield options.

They were linked, to varying extents, free-agent options such as Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Eddie Rosario even after adding Garcia. On the trade front, they’re reported to have interest in D-backs star Ketel Marte. One note of importance in their search to add to the outfield mix, via a second column from McPherson, is that general manager Kim Ng suggested the team believes the newly signed Garcia can play regularly in center field, if needed.

Miami doesn’t have a true, everyday center fielder at present, and at least ostensibly, the Marlins look to be carrying quite a few corner-only outfielders (e.g. Garcia, Jesus Sanchez, Garrett Cooper). Deadline acquisition Bryan De La Cruz has some experience in center (629 innings between MLB and the minors), but a good portion of that (199 innings) came out of necessity with the Marlins late last season. Meanwhile, he has just shy of 3000 career innings in right field and another 723 in left field, suggesting that the Astros –who traded him to Miami in the Yimi Garcia deal this past July — viewed him as mostly a corner option, at the very least.

A willingness to play Garcia in center field would open up the Fish to adding another corner option. To that end, it’s worth noting that MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggested last week on his Big Time Baseball Podcast that Miami “may end up with Rosario” being their preferred option as a second outfield pickup. Both Rosario and Garcia have played a fair bit of center field in their careers, so if the former indeed joins the latter in Miami, perhaps both could see occasional time there.

Following the Marlins’ signing of Garcia and their pre-lockout trades to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Joey Wendle, Miami has $23.8MM in guaranteed payroll and a projected Opening Day payroll of about $69MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez (including arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players). That’d be a jump of about $12MM from last year’s stripped-down roster, but even for a typically low-payroll club like the Marlins, there’s room to add onto that mark. The Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group has in the past been reported to be planning a gradual payroll uptick as the team emerges from a rebuilding effort. The Garcia signing, the Sandy Alcantara extension and the acquisitions of some arb-eligible players with salaries of relative note (Stallings, Wendle) all support that line of thinking.

Marlins Sign Avisail Garcia

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TODAY: The Marlins officially announced the signing.  The contract details are provided by Jon Heyman, who notes that Miami’s 2026 club option is worth $12MM, with a $5MM buyout.  Garcia will earn an even $12MM in each of the 2022-25 seasons, and he will also donate $120K per year to the Marlins’ team charity.

NOVEMBER 28: The Marlins have agreed to a four-year contract with free agent Avisail Garcia, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  Garcia will earn $53MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Garcia is represented by Mato Sports Management.

Mish notes that this is the largest contract the Marlins have handed out under owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, who purchased the team more than four years ago.  The Marlins are “far from done,” tweets Mish.  Garcia joins Jesus Sanchez in the Marlins’ outfield, after the club reportedly made a strong push to bring Starling Marte back before he signed with the Mets.  The Marlins continue to sit on perhaps the game’s best starting pitching surplus, suggesting GM Kim Ng may solve some of the team’s other needs on the trade market.

MLBTR had predicted a three-year, $36MM contract for Garcia, who managed to snag an extra year and a better average annual value.  Garcia’s contract is exactly double that of Mark Canha, who signed with the Mets two days ago at the same $13.25MM AAV.  Garcia, 31 in June, posted a fine 115 wRC+ in 135 games for the Brewers this year.  Garcia’s two-year, $20MM contract with the Brewers included a provision that converted a $12MM club option into a mutual one once he reached a certain plate appearance threshold in September.  That allowed Garcia to become a free agent.  Likely fearing acceptance, the budget-conscious Brewers elected not to make the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.

Garcia has had an up-and-down career since signing with the Tigers for $200K as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela back in 2007.  The toolsy outfielder reached the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2012 and was traded to the White Sox the following year as part of a three-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to Detroit.  Garcia fell short of expectations in Chicago until a BABIP-driven 138 wRC+ in 2017.  After a down 2018 season that culminated in knee surgery, the White Sox chose not to tender Garcia a contract with a projected $8MM arbitration salary looming.

The Rays swooped in with a one-year, $3.5MM free agent contract for Garcia, who rode a 113 wRC+ in 2019 to the aforementioned two-year contract with Milwaukee.  It’s fair to question why, two years later, Garcia is coming off a similar season and managed to secure $33MM more than last time.  Interestingly, Marte was reportedly “seeking a three- or four-year deal in the $50 million range” back in July when the Marlins attempted to extend him, according to Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish in the Miami Herald.  The Marlins didn’t get there, trading Marte for Jesus Luzardo before attempting to sign him back last week.  It’s been an odd sequence of events for the Marlins, who ended up with Garcia for a similar price to what Marte might have cost.

The answer to Garcia’s appeal might lie in Statcast, where his top of the charts numbers have always hinted at something more.  This year, he ranked in the 73rd percentile for average exit velocity, 98th for maximum exit velocity, 78th for hard hit percentage, and 80th for barrel rate.  Garcia simply hits the ball very hard, even if this year’s 29 home runs represented a career best.  Garcia pairs his hard-hitting with 88th percentile sprint speed, so his is a rare blend of athleticism.  Defensively, Garcia has been a bit below average in Outs Above Average over the past few years.

We’ve seen a flurry of hot stove activity today with three days remaining until the collective bargaining agreement expires, with December 1st serving as a transaction deadline of sorts.  Today alone, we’ve seen free agent contracts for Marcus Semien, Corey Kluber, and Garcia, as well as an extension for Byron Buxton.  After the CBA expires, ownership is widely expected to lock out the players and freeze free agency, speculatively until the eve of spring training in February.  This has created an unprecedented urgency from teams in free agency, resulting in many November contracts that have exceeded expectations.

Marlins Notes: Avisail, Castellanos, Lopez, Hernandez, Blue Jays

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The Marlins are intent on adding offense, and are exploring both the free agent and trade routes to accomplish this goal.  On the open market, the Marlins have shown interest in Avisail Garcia (as per The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson) and they have spoken with agent Scott Boras, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Boras represents any number of top hitters in this year’s free agent market, though Heyman observes that outfielder Nick Castellanos is from Miami, even if it’s “hard to see [the Marlins] affording him.”

Using MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list as reference, we have Castellanos pegged for a five-year, $115MM deal, not to mention the additional draft pick compensation the Marlins would need to surrender since Castellanos has rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.  Garcia is projected for three years and $36MM, which much more realistic even for a Marlins team that has expressed a willingness to flex a bit more financial muscle this winter.  As it happens, our Garcia estimate is pretty close to the three-year, $30MM extension offer the Marlins floated at Starling Marte last summer, so that could give some hint as to what the team is prepared to spend.

Garcia is less expensive and is a better defender than Castellanos, though Castellanos has a more consistent track record as a hitter.  Garcia does happen to be coming off one of the best seasons of his career, after hitting .262/.330/.490 with a personal-best 29 homers in 515 PA with the Brewers.  While Garcia alone wouldn’t elevate Miami’s lineup, Heyman believes the Marlins could “acquire multiple hitters that cost somewhat less” than one big splashy acquisition like Castellanos.

The opportunity also exists for the Marlins to trade from their pitching surplus, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are one of the teams who have been in touch with Miami.  Heyman identifies Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez as the Marlins’ “most available arms,” likely in the context of Lopez and Hernandez being the type of big league-ready pitchers that would appeal to a win-now team like Toronto.

Since the Jays have a catching surplus and the Marlins have a need behind the plate, Alejandro Kirk seems like a logical trade possibility, Morosi opines.  Kirk may have the most trade value of any Blue Jays catcher besides star prospect Gabriel Moreno, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that Moreno “appears extremely unlikely” to be dealt anywhere.  Toronto could also be a fit for the Marlins’ outfield needs, as Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have been getting a lot of interest in their catchers and outfielders at the GM Meetings.

Brewers Won’t Issue Qualifying Offer To Avisail Garcia

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NOVEMBER 7: The Brewers won’t issue a qualifying offer to Garcia or any of their free agents, MLB.com’s Tim McCalvy reports (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 5: Avisail Garcia declined his end of a $12MM mutual option with the Brewers yesterday, opting for a $2MM buyout and a return trip to the free agent market. Before he formally hits free agency on Sunday at 5pm ET, however, the Brewers will have the opportunity to issue him a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. No decision on that front has been made just yet, but the Brewers are indeed considering that course of action, writes Will Sammon of The Athletic.

If Milwaukee does issue a qualifying offer Sunday, Garcia would have ten days to determine whether to accept or reject. Garcia and agent Gene Mato would be able to negotiate with other teams during that ten-day window in order to get an early sense of the market. If Garcia were to accept that $18.4MM offer, he’d be signed for the 2022 season and effectively ineligible to be traded prior to next June 15, as is the case with all free agents who sign Major League contracts.

Were Garcia to reject the offer, he’d be subject to draft pick compensation; any team that signed Garcia would do so at the cost of forfeitures in next year’s draft. The exact compensation varies from team to team. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2021 (i.e. Dodgers, Padres) would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft, in addition to $1MM of next year’s league-allotted international bonus pool. Teams that received revenue-sharing would forfeit their third-highest pick in the draft. Any of the 15 other teams would forfeit its second-highest pick and see a $500K reduction in its international bonus pool. (The team-by-team breakdown of those categories can be seen in this previous piece from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.)

The Brewers, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2022 draft if Garcia signs a contract worth $50MM or more in guaranteed money. Should Garcia sign for less, Milwaukee would receive a compensatory pick after next year’s Competitive Balance Round B — typically in the No. 75 to 80 range.

On the one hand, making an offer is a risk for the Brewers. There’s at least a chance that Garcia would accept the offer in hopes of producing another strong season and returning to the open market next year, without the burden of draft compensation. Garcia accepting a qualifying offer would push Milwaukee’s projected payroll up into the $140MM range for next season — well north of the team’s current Opening Day record of about $122.5MM (from 2019).

On the other hand, Garcia’s 2021 season — .262/.330/.490, 29 home runs, 18 doubles, eight stolen bases, strong right field defense — was certainly worth that $18.4MM. Were he to accept and repeat that production, it’d hardly be an egregious overpay. And, that strong showing both at the plate and in the field has made Garcia a clear candidate for a multi-year deal in free agency. He’s not likely to secure that same $18.4MM value on an annual basis, but he could earn a much larger guarantee over a longer term. Players reject the qualifying offer more often than they accept, as most generally prefer the stability and security of a long-term deal. Longer-term pacts protect them against any injury or regression that might occur in the event of accepting the QO, and it’s eminently understandable that players with families prefer the continuity of a multi-year pact rather than moving those families around the continent on a year-to-year basis.

Market context matters, too. There’s a fair number of corner outfield options on the market this winter, with Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte (who can also play center), Mark Canha, Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario among the available options. Garcia falls into the middle of that group, but his stock could be strengthened by the fact that not every team will be able to afford the very top-of-the-market options. Garcia could well be viewed as one of the more palatable options in that next tier, offering a promising blend of power, athleticism and defense.

Avisail Garcia Declines Mutual Option, Becomes Free Agent

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Brewers outfielder Avisail Garcia has declined his half of a $12MM mutual option for the 2022 season, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). He’ll instead receive a $2MM buyout and head out into the free agent market in search of another multi-year deal.

Avisail Garcia | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Garcia, 31 next June, struggled through the 2020 season in Milwaukee but enjoyed one of the finest seasons of his career in a rebound 2021 showing. The former Tigers, White Sox and Rays slugger swatted a career-best 29 home runs this season while posting a strong .262/.330/.490 batting line — about 15 percent better than league-average production, by measure of wRC+. His original two-year, $20MM deal with the Brewers came with a $12MM club option that the team could very well have exercised. However, the contract also contained a provision that converted that option into a mutual option with enough plate appearances, and Garcia reached that threshold back in September, earning the right to return to the free-agent market.

This will be the second foray into the free-agent market for Garcia, who posted a similar 113 wRC+ mark in his last platform year (2019). However, Garcia hit for more power in ’21 than he did in ’19 and also drew better defensive grades for his outfield work this year (in part because the 2019 Rays occasionally deployed him in center, to sub-par results).

Another multi-year deal for Garcia seems quite likely, as he’s wrapped up a strong season and further solidified the notion that he’s capable of being a team’s everyday right fielder. Garcia crushed lefties in 2021 (.279/.406/.529), as he is wont to do, and delivered league-average output against right-handed opponents. The question for him in free agency will be the extent by which he can eclipse his prior contract.

The improved power output and defensive ratings are obvious points in Garcia’s favor, but he’s now also two years older than last time around. His 2021 Statcast profile is quite appealing, as Garcia ranked in the 73rd percentile of MLB hitters in average exit velocity and had strong percentile showings in hard-hit rate (78th), expected batting average (83rd), expected slugging (87th), expected wOBA (85th) and sprint speed (88th). Then again, much of that was true in 2019 (albeit not quite to this extent).

Garcia has long shown a knack for hard contact and far more speed than one would expect from a player listed at 6’4″ and 250 pounds. The 2021 season, however, is the first that he’s delivered truly high-end power output with the type of plus defensive ratings that align with his tantalizing tool set. The Brewers technically have the right to make him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but that’d register as something of a surprise given the typically tight payroll in Milwaukee.

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Correa, Garcia

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Former Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter has agreed to join the Angels. The 46-year-old former first round pick of the Blue Jays  will “work with young pitchers on their mental skills and advancement toward the majors,” per Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter worked in the Cardinals front office as a special assistant for a number of years, but he was let go as a result of pandemic-driven belt-tightening. The Angels can certainly use all the help they can get, especially after spending their entire draft capital on pitchers. Besides, Carpenter knows a thing or two about the struggle to establish yourself in the Majors. Carpenter is one of the most notable late developers in recent history, making his first All-Star team at age 30 after moving from his original franchise to St. Louis, where he became a Cy Young winner and three-time All-Star. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Despite his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal and the negative public sentiment that’s followed him since, expect Carlos Correa to cash in big this winter, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. MLBTR agrees, having placed him atop the free agent rankings back in August. Indeed, Correa has been the face of the Astros post-scandal, and even that could be construed as a positive for his next club. His talent is unquestioned, and he has certainly proved that he can withstand just about any level of public criticism.
  • Avisail Garcia and the Brewers share a $12MM mutual option for the 2022 season, and Garcia will be first to make a move. As a note of clarification, that’s how all mutual options work, writes The Athletic’s Will Sammon. Garcia put up a resurgent campaign, slashing .262/.330/.490 with 29 home runs in 515 plate appearances. Garcia was one of the Brewers’ most consistent power bats, and they have a lot of money committed to their outfield even without him. Still, with a 14-man arbitration class, the Brewers might consider declining their side of Garcia’s option even if he does opt-in.

Avisail Garcia Reaches Mutual Option Threshold, Can Opt For Free Agency

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Avisail Garcia made three plate appearances in last night’s 10-2 Brewers loss to the Cardinals, giving the Milwaukee outfielder 492 PA for the season.  This is the exact number needed to turn the Brewers’ $12MM club option on Garcia for the 2022 campaign into a mutual option, and thus Garcia can now decide whether or not he wishes to remain with the Brewers or enter this winter’s free agent market.

Garcia initially came to Milwaukee via free agency in the 2019-20 offseason, as Garcia received a guaranteed $20MM over the 2019-20 seasons.  This broke down as a $500K signing bonus, $17.5MM in salary, and a $2MM buyout of that 2022 club option.  The club option turned into a mutual option if Garcia achieved either of two criteria — either 550 PA in 2021, or 1050 total PA over the 2020 and 2021 seasons.  Contractual thresholds in the shortened 2020 season were prorated, so Garcia’s 207 PA in 2020 were the equivalent of 558 PA in a normal season.  Now that the option has vested, Garcia’s buyout adjusts to $1.5MM (also based on plate appearances) should he decline his end of the mutual option.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco outlined Garcia’s situation back on August 26, and not much has changed for the outfielder in the last four weeks.  Garcia has missed a few games due to back and hamstring soreness and hit a modest .212/.255/.500 over his last 55 plate appearances.  That said, Garcia has also homered in two of three games since a four-game absence due to back spasms, so it is possible he has turned the corner on his injury problems.

Another little hot streak over the Brewers’ final 10 games or (perhaps more importantly) during the postseason would only enhance what has already been a very solid year for the 30-year-old.  Garcia has hit .270/.337/.506 with a career-best 29 homers, which translates to a 121 wRC+ and 122 OPS+.  He has been making a lot of hard contact, and as per Statcast, Garcia might even be a little shortchanged in the production department — his .374 xwOBA is higher than his .356 wOBA.  Beyond the offensive side, Garcia has also been an excellent right fielder according to the UZR/150 (13.6) and Defensive Runs Saved (9) metrics, though he is rated as merely average by Outs Above Average.

Since mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides, it’s safe to assume Garcia will look to exercise his free agent rights unless he and the Brewers can work out an extension beforehand.  Between a big arbitration class and a lot of money already invested in the outfield, Milwaukee might prefer to seek out the proverbial next Avisail Garcia (i.e. another outfielder who could be signed for a mid-tier salary) rather than spend more on a player who hasn’t been very consistent over his 10 MLB seasons.

Should Garcia indeed decline the mutual option, the Brewers could also issue him a qualifying offer, so the team could obtain a compensatory draft pick if Garcia declined the QO and signed elsewhere.  Though the one-year QO will be in the neighborhood of $20MM, Garcia would most likely decline that one-year payday in search of a longer-term offer on the open market.

Avisail Garcia Nearing The Right To Reach Free Agency This Offseason

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The Brewers are coasting to a division title, leading the NL Central by nine and a half games after taking the first two games of this week’s series with the Reds. That’s the largest divisional lead of any team in MLB. While the pitching staff deservedly gets plenty of credit as the biggest driver of Milwaukee’s success, the offense has been solid enough to hold up its end of the bargain. Avisaíl García has somewhat quietly been among the Brewers’ top performers, which looks as if it’ll set up an interesting offseason decision for teams.

García signed with Milwaukee on a two-year, $20MM guarantee over the 2019-20 offseason. The pact contained a $12MM club option ($2MM buyout) covering the 2022 campaign. That provision vests into a mutual option, however, were García to tally 1050 plate appearances over his first two seasons in Milwaukee.

Thresholds for vesting options were prorated during last year’s shortened season, with each plate appearance in 2020 counting as 2.7 plate appearances for option purposes. García’s 207 trips to the plate last year comes out to 558 plate appearances over a full season, meaning he needs to reach 492 plate appearances this season to trigger the vesting option. García’s already at 433 plate appearances, so he’ll need just 59 more over Milwaukee’s final 35 games of 2021 to reach that mark. Barring injury, he should have no problem getting there.

That would give García a lot more control over his future this winter. The 30-year-old could decline his end of the mutual option, collect the $2MM buyout, and look to top the $10MM in remaining guaranteed money on the open market. Given how well he’s played this season, he shouldn’t have trouble doing that, although precisely what kind of contract he could land is an interesting question.

García is hitting .275/.346/.506 with 24 home runs this year, translating to a 125 wRC+ that suggests he’s been 25 percentage points better than the league average hitter. That’s the second-best mark of his career, topped only by his .330/.380/.506 showing (138 wRC+) with the 2017 White Sox. That season in Chicago never looked replicable, as García benefitted from a .392 batting average on balls in play that easily led all qualified hitters. This year, García’s sporting a .304 BABIP that’s not much higher than the league average and is well below his career mark.

This time around, García’s getting to his production with career-best power. He’s already exceeded his previous personal best in home runs (20 in 2019), and his .231 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) is also a career high. García’s 21.9% strikeout rate is his second-lowest ever, nearly five percentage points below the 26.5% mark he posted in 2017. So while García has posted this level of bottom-line production before, he’s never gotten there in quite this way.

That said, there are still reasons for teams to be reluctant to buy in completely. While his strikeouts are down a bit relative to recent seasons, his actual level of swing-and-miss is not. García’s 17.1% swinging strike rate this season is a near-match for his 17.2% career mark, and it’s the fifth-highest figure in the league among the 198 players with 300+ plate appearances. That reflects one of the sport’s most aggressive approaches. García has swung at 57% of pitches he’s seen, the fourth-highest rate among that group; his 40.2% swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone is eleventh.

Rather than toning down his aggressiveness, García has gotten to his high-end production this year by making consistently strong contact. The career-best home run and slugging output is supported by the batted ball metrics. His hard contact rate (49%) and average exit velocity (90.7 MPH) are career-best marks. Statcast’s estimators — which predict the results of balls in play based on their exit velocity and launch angle — suggest García has “deserved” a .285 batting average and a .520 slugging percentage, slightly better than his actual marks in those respective categories.

That García has seemingly earned all of his success this year — as opposed to benefitting from an inordinate amount of luck on balls in play — doesn’t automatically mean he’ll be able to keep this up, though. He’s always been something of a Statcast darling, with the huge raw power that once made him a top prospect manifesting itself in high-end batted ball metrics. Despite that, his results have varied wildly throughout his career, largely because he has walked such a fine line with his approach.

García became a regular in 2015. In the seven years since, he’s had three above-average offensive seasons and four subpar campaigns. His career hasn’t followed any sort of linear trajectory; his good years in 2017, 2019 and 2021 were interrupted by disappointing intervening seasons. Even within this season, he has sandwiched a poor April and June around monstrous months of May, July and August.

He’s been similarly tough to pin down defensively. García’s certainly fast and athletic enough to make some highlight plays in the outfield (he took away a home run from Max Schrock just last night, in fact). But the advanced metrics have all pegged him right around league average in the corners over the course of his career. He has rated rather poorly in his limited looks in center.

Taken in aggregate, García looks to be one of the more fascinating players who could hit the open market in a few months. Between his youth, high-end platform season and obvious physical gifts, his representatives at Mato Sports Management could plausibly push for a four-year deal if García finishes the year at this level. But there’ll certainly be some teams scared off by his approach and career-long streakiness.

The first team that’ll be faced with a decision on García is his current club. Assuming García reaches the vesting option threshold and declines his end to hit free agency, the Brewers will have to decide whether to make him a qualifying offer. That would land somewhere in the $19MM range for 2022 if García accepts, nearly doubling the AAV of his current deal. Were he to decline and sign elsewhere, Milwaukee would pick up a compensatory draft choice to aid a farm system that Baseball America just ranked as one of the league’s ten worst. How the Brewers and other teams feel about García looks likely to get answered this winter, as he’s around fifteen games away from earning the right to explore the market.

Image credit: USA Today Sports.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

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