Free Agent Notes: Brewers, Williams, Gaudin, Figgins, Tomko
With the signings of Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds to minor league deals, the Brewers seem likely to spend roster spots on both of the veterans. "[First base] is a position where we may have to mix and match with Overbay, Reynolds, Juan Francisco," GM Doug Melvin told MLB.com's Dick Kaegel. "We've got numbers now to work with and guys can come into camp and be competitive. … I didn't think we'd be able to sign both Reynolds and Overbay, but sometimes the situation with two guys doing it, you might get some production."
Let's have a look at some notes on a few other free agents who are likely to end up with one-year or minor league deals:
- The Phillies are not pursuing Jerome Williams at present in spite of prior interest, reports Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. Philadelphia does, however, have an offer out to a swingman whose identity is not presently known, according to Cotillo. (Twitter links.)
- About a half-dozen teams are "in on" pitcher Chad Gaudin, who is expected to reach agreement soon, reports Cotillo (via Twitter). Last we checked in on Gaudin, the Phils were being floated as a possible landing spot.
- Red Sox scouts actually were in attendance to watch infielder Chone Figgins work out last week, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo had recently reported to the contrary. The 35-year-old signed with the Marlins last spring, but did not make it out of camp with the organization.
- Righty Brett Tomko, who is reportedly on the comeback trail at age 40, will throw for the Orioles on Friday, tweets Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. As MLBTR's Zach Links noted on Twitter, Tomko has received interest from multiple clubs and is said to be throwing in the low-90s.
Carlos Santana Expects To Play Third For Indians
MONDAY: In the "Around the Horn" section of his latest column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that despite Santana's comments, club officials will wait until Spring Training to make a definitive call on his position. The team still hasn't ruled out using Chisenhall at third base, according to Rosenthal.
FRIDAY: Carlos Santana has served as the club's primary backstop for the last three seasons, but says he is preparing to play at the hot corner in 2014, according to ESPNDeportes.com's Enrique Rojas (Spanish language link). Though Santana was known to be trying his hand at a return to third — where he spent some time early in his professional career — this report indicates a much more serious likelihood of a position shift.
As Santana explains (all translation errors mine), he is only preparing to play third at this point in time. "Those are the plans of the team at this moment," Santana said. Indicating that the club asked him to give third a try, Santana said he "took a month thinking about it before accepting."
Santana seemed destined to spend less time at the catcher position anyway next season, for several reasons. To begin with, the 27-year-old's bat is good enough to play anywhere on the diamond. Last year, he posted a .268/.377/.455 triple-slash, including twenty home runs, in 642 plate appearances. That was good for a 137 OPS+, a particularly impressive mark given that Santana labored behind the dish for 84 games.
And while any player can theoretically be more valuable while playing a defense-first position like catcher, Santana had increasingly struggled at the spot. Defensive Runs Saved panned Santana's work in 2013, and recent pitch framing metrics (e.g., here and here) have viewed him as a poor framer. There were good reasons for Cleveland to limit Santana's defensive impact, though of course third is hardly the easiest position. (And UZR has not looked kindly on Santana's 942 2/3 career innings at first, though he told Rojas that he never felt comfortable there.)
Most importantly, perhaps, is the emergence of Yan Gomes, who was picked up from the Blue Jays in a deal that has strongly favored the Indians to date. The 26-year-old's emergence last year played a big role in fueling the club's Wild Card run. He hit .294/.345/.481 in 322 plate appearances, splitting time at catcher with Santana. In just 88 games, Gomes was worth 3.7 fWAR and 4.0 rWAR, drawing positive reviews for his defensive work.
The news on Santana could have hot stove implications. For one, it may explain why the club has done little to push Lonnie Chisenhall outside of inking David Adams, who has just 152 big league plate appearances under his belt despite the fact that he will turn 27 in May. For what it is worth, Santana is a better hitter from the right side (.855 OPS vs. .794 OPS hitting lefty), though he'd surely find his bat at another position in the lineup if he were to platoon at third.
Of course, if Cleveland no longer plans to give Chisenhall regular at-bats, it raises the question why the team was so hesitant to part with him in a prospective Matt Garza trade deadline deal. And if Santana were to spend significant time at third, it could make the 25-year-old a candidate to be dealt. He was once a top-25 prospect, and his career .694 OPS has come in only 682 plate appearances over three MLB seasons.
If Santana is able to play a passable third, moreover, it could impact the fate of both he and Gomes. Spending less energy behind the dish, and more time in the lineup, could lead to bigger offensive numbers for Santana. He would make for quite an interesting multi-position player, given his outstanding bat, and would increase his stock as a trade piece or eventual free agent. (He is signed through 2016, plus the Indians hold an option for the following season.)
As for Gomes, the shifting of the club's prized young catcher off of the catching position would open up a world of opportunity. Gomes would presumably be looked upon as the catcher of the future in Cleveland. The Oliver and Steamer projection systems (via Fangraphs) both project him to keep hitting at better than league average, and view him as a three or four win player in a full-time role. Eligible for arbitration after the 2015 season, Gomes would have a chance to build real value through arbitration or as an extension candidate.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Arbitration Roundup, Part II: Notable Deals And Cases
With the day's arbitration activities complete, the filterable MLBTR Arbitration Tracker now has a full set of information for your perusal. The settlement amount is available for every player that has reached agreement already. And the team and player arbitration demands exchanged earlier today (and the resulting midpoint) are available for all 38 players that have yet to ink a new deal. (As always, you will want to reference the projections from the arbitration model of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.)
Let's take a quick look back, and then a quick look forward:
Notable Deals
The most interesting signings of the day included:
- Starter Max Scherzer of the Tigers landed far and away the biggest one-year jump of a 5+ service year hurler.
- Orioles first baseman Chris Davis, who received a record raise for a second-time eligible player.
- Outfielders Brett Gardner of the Yankees (link) and Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins (link) both got substantially more money than was projected by Swartz.
- The Nationals signed interesting two-year deals with extension candidates Jordan Zimmermann (link) and Ian Desmond (link) that guaranteed their remaining arbitration years without extending team control.
- Dillon Gee of the Mets became the first player to sign after exchanging figures, when he and the club apparently realized that they were too close to warrant a fight.
Notable Cases
As we move ahead, here are the situations most worth watching:
- The Braves say they will go to hearings with star players Craig Kimbrel ($9MM vs. $6.55MM), Jason Heyward ($5.5MM vs. $5.2MM), and Freddie Freeman ($5.75MM vs. $4.5MM).
- Homer Bailey and the Reds are nearly $3MM apart in terms of arbitration positions ($11.6MM vs. $8.7MM), but seemingly plan to use their time before the hearing to talk long-term extension.
- Some of the other sizeable gaps between player and team filings, in absolute terms, are Justin Masterson and the Indians ($3.75MM), Doug Fister and the Nationals ($2.75MM), Mark Trumbo and the Diamondbacks ($2.45MM), and Matt Wieters and the Orioles ($2.25MM).
- More significantly, in some respects, are the differences in position in relative terms. These cases feature the greatest relative gulf (percent by which player demand is higher than team offer): Logan Morrison and the Mariners (127.3%), Daniel Descalso and the Cardinals (77.42%), Brandon Belt and the Giants (75.6%), Ben Revere and the Phillies (75.0%), and Trumbo and the D-Backs (72.1%). Among these situations, all of the player figures were further away from Swartz's projections than were the teams'. Belt and Revere — both Super Two players — were furthest away from the projected salary. The gap in exchanged figures can have a huge impact on the bargaining positions of lower-salaried players in post-exchange negotiations: they stand to lose much more by failing in a hearing, and their teams are better able to take on the risk of taking them to a hearing.
- Amongst cases with over $4.5MM player demands, these have the largest percentage differences: Trumbo and the D-Backs (72.1%), A.J. Ellis and the Dodgers (53.3%), Fister and the Nationals (47.8%), Masterson and the Indians (46.6%), David Freese and the Angels (46.3%), Kenley Jansen and the Dodgers (44.3%), Tyler Clippard and the Nationals (42.7%), Alex Avila and the Tigers (42.7%), and Jeff Samardzija and the Cubs (40.9%).
- The two seemingly unnecessary disputes are between Andrew Cashner and the Padres (5.49%) and Heyward and the Braves (5.77%). And yet, both cases could end up in a hearing.
Minor Moves: Joe Beimel, Logan Kensing, Manny Pina
There were a few minor moves from earlier today that got lost in the arbitration shuffle:
- Seattle has also inked southpaw Joe Beimel, tweets Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. The 36-year-old last pitched in the bigs in 2011, but Brown says his velocity has returned after making a full recovery from Tommy John surgery.
- The Mariners have signed righty Logan Kensing and catcher Manny Pina to minor league deals with Spring Training invites, according to the club's non-roster invitee page. Kensing, 31, has a 5.79 ERA in 161 2/3 MLB innings. He made one appearance last year for the Rockies, but last saw the show in 2009. Pina 26, has had two brief cups of coffee with the Royals. At Triple-A last year for the Kansas City organization, he put up a .228/.274/.359 triple-slash in 325 plate appearances.
- Only one player remains in DFA limbo at the moment, per MLBTR's DFA Tracker: Carlos Peguero of the Mariners.
NL Notes: Reds, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers
Here's the latest out of the National League:
- Even as they continue to work out contracts with key pitchers Homer Bailey and Aroldis Chapman, the Reds are keeping an eye on the free agent market, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. GM Walt Jocketty says he is looking for an extra outfielder and infielder, indicating that he'd like to have a player at Triple-A that can handle shortstop in the event of an injury to Zack Cozart. "We're still looking at a couple of guys," said Jocketty. "I don't think there's been any progress, especially this week. Once a lot of the agents get through the arbitration process this week, we'll have more time to pursue any last minute invites for Spring Training that create more competition."
- The Cardinals have improved in several areas without sacrificing prospects or draft picks while the rest of the division largely stood pat in terms of acquisitions, says Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, but that does not mean the club has only smooth sailing ahead. While the organization dealt with injuries impressively last year, it is no sure thing to do so again, and players like Peter Bourjos and Allen Craig have some injury baggage. Whether the team can get a repeat performance from Matt Carpenter, and get production from an all-new middle infield (Jhonny Peralta, Kolten Wong, and Mark Ellis) are also all open questions.
- After signing all but one arbitration player (Andrew Cashner), the Padres' payroll looks likely to end up at around $87MM by Opening Day, writes Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego. That would constitute a delivery on owner Ron Fowler's promise of a payroll increase of over 20%, says Lin, who opines that the team could still look to extend Cashner and add a southpaw to the pen.
- As noted in an earlier post, MLB.com's Ken Gurnick says the Dodgers should prioritize an extension of Hanley Ramirez over the signing of Masahiro Tanaka. Meanwhile, reports Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com, the team has continued to talk with Michael Young about a return for the trade deadline acquisition.
Masahiro Tanaka Rumors: Friday
Let's round up the day's rumblings on Masahiro Tanaka, who will have chosen his new club by this time next week:
- Both Chicago organizations are real contenders for Tanaka, Dan Martin and Ken Davidoff of the New York Post wrote yesterday. An industry source says that the Cubs and White Sox have serious interest in the Japanese ace. Seven teams met with Tanaka during his trip to the U.S., the pair notes, though the Sox are the only ones to have publicly acknowledged a face-to-face.
- Those meetings have not yet resulted in feedback, according to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com (via Twitter). Teams had around an hour to pitch Tanaka, but have not heard back. "Nobody knows where they stand," says Sanchez.
- The Cubs have withheld cash thus far in order to keep a sufficient war chest to make a real run at Tanaka, says Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. But with a "debt-strung, skittish-to-spend ownership," in Wittenmyer's words, the club may not be a real player in the sweepstakes.
- The Dodgers are actively involved in talks with Tanaka, reports Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. This report confirms what many had suspected (and the front office had indicated): the club will not be precluded from another massive investment after extending Clayton Kershaw. As Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com further reports, GM Ned Colletti has had discussions with Tanaka's reps at Excel Sports Management all week long. "We're still, first and foremost, concerned with the quality of the team we can put together, and adding it up comes second," said president Stan Kasten. "This is a long-term strategy of ours. After five or six or seven years, it will make a lot more sense than it does to people looking at today's snapshot."
- For his part, MLB.com's Ken Gurnick is not so sure that Los Angeles will go all out for Tanaka, though it is interested if he values the chance to play on the West Coast and is "willing to make his decision on factors other than total financial package." But with interest that has been only "lukewarm at best," says Gurnick, the Dodgers would probably not look to win a bidding war absent intervention from the ownership group. A Hanley Ramirez extension is, in Gurnick's estimation, a higher priority for the L.A. brass.
Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today's noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available here.
As MLBTR has previously explained, 146 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had alread reached agreement). Of those, 40 players will exchange figures with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place betwee February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side's figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.
For the Braves players listed below, however, Atlanta says it will cease negotiations and take all cases to a hearing. Two other teams that have swapped figures with some players — the Nationals and Indians — also have employed variations of the "file and trial" approach with their arbitration cases.
Though a tweet from FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal indicates that the Reds have joined the list of teams employing "file and trial," GM Walt Jocketty did not seem to echo that position in comments today to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. It turns out that the team has only taken that position with respect to players whose deals were valued under the $2MM level, tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.
We will use this post to keep tabs on the the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM:
- A.J. Ellis filed at $4.6MM while the Dodgers countered at $3MM, tweets Passan.
- Gerardo Parra filed at $5.2MM while the Diamondbacks countered at $4.3MM, tweets Passan.
- Tyler Clippard filed at $6.35MM while the Nationals countered at $4.45MM, tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.
- Alex Avila filed at $5.35MM while the Tigers countered at $3.75MM, tweets Jason Beck of MLB.com.
- David Freese filed at $6MM while the Angels countered at $4.1MM, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
- Mark Trumbo filed at $5.85MM while the Diamondbacks countered at $3.4MM, tweets Heyman.
- Kenley Jansen filed at $5.05MM while the Dodgers countered at $3.5MM, tweets Heyman.
- Craig Kimbrel filed at $9MM while the Braves countered at $6.55MM, tweets Bowman.
- Jason Heyward filed at $5.5MM while the Braves countered at $5.2MM, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com.
- Doug Fister filed at $8.5MM while the Nationals countered at $5.75MM, tweets Heyman.
- Aroldis Chapman filed at $5.4MM while the Reds countered at $4.6MM, tweets Heyman.
- Greg Holland filed at $5.2MM while the Royals countered at $4.1MM, tweets Heyman.
- Justin Masterson filed at $11.8MM while the Indians countered at $8.05MM, tweets Heyman.
- Freddie Freeman filed for $5.75MM while the Braves countered at $4.5MM, tweets Heyman.
- Matt Wieters filed for $8.75MM while the Orioles countered at $6.5MM, tweets Heyman.
- Homer Bailey filed for $11.6MM while the Reds countered at $8.7MM, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
- Jeff Samardzija filed for $6.2MM while the Cubs countered at $4.4MM, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.
Reds Discussing Long-Term Deal With Homer Bailey
Discussing the team's inability to reach agreement with pitcher Homer Bailey before today's deadline to submit arbitration figures, Reds GM Walt Jocketty indicated that the sides were discussing a long-term extension, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. He further indicated that the club was not concerned with the situations of either of its two prominent remaining arbitration cases, Bailey and closer Aroldis Chapman.
The sides have reportedly had previous discussions on a significant extension. They came close to getting something done today, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, 'We talked a one-year and a multiyear deal," said Jocketty. "We'll keep talking."
In his discussions with Sheldon, Jocketty raised expectations that something would get worked out, saying that he is "optimistic" about reaching a long-term deal. As the GM explained:
"In Bailey's case, we were working on a multi-year [deal]. The agent [Casey Close] has [Clayton] Kersaw and he has [Masahiro] Tanaka also, so he's been tied up with that. We just didn't anticipate getting it done, but we exchanged numbers in the event and we will continue to negotiate and hopefully get something done before the hearing date."
Discussing the terms of the contract, he said:
"I just think it depends on where they feel the market settles in on free-agent pitchers. Hopefully, we're not too far with our estimate and with their estimate about the market going forward. What it will be based on is what market for a guy like Bailey will be in the future."
The recent Clayton Kershaw extension would not be a comparable deal, but would nevertheless play a role, Jocketty explained. "I don't think it affects this one directly with Bailey, but it affects the market as a whole," Jocketty said. "Any time you sign a free agent to a contract, it drags it up a little bit. Kershaw is a special case."
Bailey has been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.3MM through arbitration in his final run through the process before reaching free agency. He filed at $11.6MM, with the club countering at $8.7MM.
Regarding Chapman, Jocketty said that he had not had much discussion with his representatives at Hendricks Sports. "Actually, this week was the first one we've had," Jocketty said. "I'm not that concerned about it." Swartz projects a $4.6MM tab for the fireballing lefty. That is the exact figure that the team submitted, while Chapman filed at $5.4MM, leaving a modest gap to bridge.
Jocketty's comments indicate that the Reds do not intend to take a "file and trial" approach, at least with these two players. An agent had told FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) that Cincinnati was adopting such a policy. It turns out that the team has only taken that position with respect to players whose deals were valued under the $2MM level, tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.
Braves Will Go To Arbitration Hearings With Kimbrel, Freeman, Heyward
Braves GM Frank Wren says that his club will take its arbitration case to a hearing with the club's three remaining arbitration-filing players, reports David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). Wren says that the club will not have any further negotiations with closer Craig Kimbrel, first baseman Freddie Freeman, and outfielder Jason Heyward.
The Braves are a noted "file and trial" club, and Wren's statements indicate that the club intends to stand by its position. "We have an organization philosophy of the filing date is our last date to negotiate prior to a hearing," said Wren. "We're done." None of the other "file and trial" clubs — the Blue Jays, Marlins, Pirates, Rays, Reds, and White Sox — has any players yet to reach agreement. (The Pirates and Reds are new additions to the list, per tweets from MLBTR's Tim Dierkes and FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal.) For the first time ever, no players went to an arbitration hearing last year, but that apparently will not be the case for 2014.
As O'Brien explains, the Braves have not had a hearing since John Rocker back in 2001. The club avoided arbitration in 2009 with Jeff Francoeur just before a hearing, but has adopted its strict negotiating policy since that time.
Needless to say, those three players represent both a critical component of the team's young core and a substantial portion of its current and future payroll. Kimbrel, in particular, represents a fascinating arbitration case given his historic early-career performance from the back end of the pen. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn a $7.25MM salary in his first trip through arbitration, with Freeman and Heyward projected to take home $4.9MM and $4.5MM, respectively.
Wren discussed the club's negotiations as well, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports on Twitter. "At the end of the day," Wren said, "we went well above the recommended salary arbitration numbers for all of our players."
The filing splits between player and team show that the Braves' filing numbers were in the ballpark of Swartz's projections. (The club may, of course, have been willing to go somewhat higher to avoid a hearing.) Kimbrel asked for $9MM, with the team countering at $6.55MM, while Freeman ($5.75MM vs. $4.5MM) and Heyward ($5.5MM vs. $5.2MM) also landed right around the projected dollar amounts.
Arbitration Roundup: 40 Players To Exchange Figures
Now that the dust has settled from the morning's rash of arbitration-avoiding deals, it is time to look out for reports on the arbitration numbers filed by players and teams that have yet to reach agreement. As MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows, at least 39 players will be exchanging figures with their clubs after failing to agree upon terms before noon central. (It is not yet known whether Pedro Strop avoided arbitration before exchanging figures with the Cubs.)
Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases. Last year, for the first time ever, no arbitration hearings took place, but it appears that at least three hearings are going forward this time around.
That being said, some teams are known for their "file and trial" approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Among those clubs, only the Braves (Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel) failed to reach terms with all of their arb-eligibles.
Meanwhile, some other clubs have historically employed the "file and trial" approach on a modified or case-by-case basis. Two of those — the Nationals (Tyler Clippard, Doug Fister) and Indians (Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson, Vinnie Pestano, Josh Tomlin) — have open cases remaining.
Other prominent players who have yet to agree upon a 2014 salary include Homer Bailey and Aroldis Chapman of the Reds, Brandon Belt of the Giants, David Freese of the Angels, Greg Holland of the Royals, Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers, Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs, Mark Trumbo of the Diamondbacks, and Matt Wieters of the Orioles. Be sure to keep a close eye on MLBTR's pages for information on those and other situations, and in the meantime click here to review MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz's projections for all arbitration-eligible players.