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Craig Kimbrel

Rangers To Sign Craig Kimbrel To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers are signing right-hander Craig Kimbrel to a minor league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The righty elected free agency yesterday after Atlanta passed him through waivers unclaimed.

Kimbrel, 37, signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in the middle of March. He reported to Triple-A Gwinnett and logged 18 innings with an earned run average of 2.00. His 12.9% walk rate was a bit high but he also struck out 32.9% of batters faced. Atlanta called him up a few days ago but designated him for assignment after just one appearance. He tossed one scoreless inning against the Giants, allowing one hit and surrendering one walk while striking out one opponent.

As a veteran with years of big league experience, Kimbrel has the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. He did exactly that and has quickly secured this minor league deal with the Rangers.

Kimbrel’s track record is well known. He has been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport at times and is currently fifth on the all-time saves list. The bigger question is whether he can still be an effective big leaguer, as his recent track record is shaky. He had an ERA north of 5.00 in both 2019 and 2020. He got that down to more reasonable levels for the 2021-23 seasons but struggled again last year. He had a 2.80 ERA in the first half with the Orioles but was lit up for a 10.59 ERA in the second half, getting released before the season ended.

This year, any club could have given him a big league shot. It was reported that his minor league deal with Atlanta had a “rolling opt-out” that essentially allowed any club to offer him a major league role at any time. If any had done so, Atlanta would have needed to decide whether to call him up themselves. As far as we know, no club took advantage of that contract provision. Atlanta did call him up but for literally one day.

That has left him to settle for another minor league deal. He will presumably report to Triple-A Round Rock shortly and will get some work for that club as he tries to get another chance in the majors.

For the Rangers, they have been looking for cheap bullpen solutions for a long time. In the offseason, they clearly wanted to upgrade the group but also wanted to avoid the competitive balance tax. They signed Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, Luke Jackson, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong and Luis Curvelo to major league deals, none of them worth more than $5.5MM. They also acquired Robert Garcia, who has not yet qualified for arbitration, in the deal that sent Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals.

They are currently running a four-man rotation with Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list and Kumar Rocker recently optioned to the minors. They can have Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter, Patrick Corbin and Jacob deGrom start the next four games but might need to do something creative by Saturday. Perhaps they will do a bullpen game or call up a minor leaguer for a spot start. Perhaps a fresh arm will be needed in the next week and Kimbrel could be that guy.

Photo courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images

Craig Kimbrel Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Kimbrel cleared waivers, and the Braves announced that Kimbrel elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A.

JUNE 7: Craig Kimbrel’s return to the Braves lasted just one day, as the club announced today that the veteran reliever has been designated for assignment.  Left-hander Austin Cox was recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to take Kimbrel’s place on the active roster.

Kimbrel signed a minors contract in March, providing a full-circle moment in rejoining his original organization.  The story reached a pinnacle when Atlanta selected Kimbrel’s contract to the active roster yesterday, and he posted a scoreless inning in the Braves’ 5-4 loss to the Giants.  It was an eventful inning, as Kimbrel allowed a hit to Heliot Ramos and a walk to Jung Hoo Lee, but Ramos was caught stealing and Kimbrel picked Lee off first base to emerge unscathed.

While it may surprise fans to see a prominent name like Kimbrel so quickly shuffled off the roster (and after a scoreless frame, no less), today’s move may reflect the reality of where the 37-year-old is at during this stage of his career.  Kimbrel is, after all, coming off a rough 2024 campaign that saw him released by the Orioles in September after posting a 5.33 ERA in 52 1/3 innings.  Kimbrel had a 3.10 ERA and two All-Star nods over 188 2/3 innings during the 2021-23 seasons, but he seemed to lose his effectiveness in the later stages of those three seasons or into the postseason.

That said, it isn’t as though Kimbrel doesn’t have anything left in the tank for his 16th Major League season.  He posted a 2.00 ERA over 18 combined innings with Double-A Columbus and Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 32.86% strikeout rate in that small sample size but also a 12.86% walk rate.  Control has been a question mark for Kimbrel even in some of his best big league seasons, but a spike in his home run rate in recent years has contributed to his struggles.

Kimbrel’s minors deal with the Braves had a distinctive “rolling opt-out” clause that would’ve allowed Kimbrel to exit the deal at any point if another team offered him a spot on their Major League roster.  News of this clause surfaced only a few days before Atlanta selected Kimbrel to its active roster, but obviously none of other 29 clubs felt compelled to try and lure the right-hander away beforehand.  Kimbrel’s minor league contract called for a prorated $2MM salary if he was called up the active roster, so (as per The Athletic’s Dave O’Brien) the Braves will now be on the hook for roughly $25K, counting Kimbrel’s day on the active roster and however long his DFA period may last.

While Kimbrel has more than enough MLB service time to reject an outright assignment and re-enter free agency, it is possible he might accept an outright to stay with Atlanta.  Staying in a familiar organization might hold more appeal for Kimbrel than re-entering the market after his long stay in free agency last winter, plus the Braves’ ever-revolving bullpen could mean that Kimbrel may get another look in the majors in relatively short order.  It all depends on what Kimbrel wants to do at this point of his career, though it doesn’t appear as if retirement is in the cards.

Braves Select Craig Kimbrel

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June 6th: Atlanta made it official today, announcing they have selected Kimbrel’s contract. They also recalled lefty Dylan Dodd, placed right-hander Daysbel Hernandez on the 15-day injured list with forearm inflammation and traded righty Scott Blewett to the Orioles.

June 5th: The Braves are planning to select the contract of right-hander Craig Kimbrel from Triple-A Gwinnett, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The full-circle promotion of the now-37-year-old former Atlanta closer, who’s been pitching well on a minor league deal in Gwinnett, comes less than an hour after the Braves’ bullpen melted down and squandered a six-run ninth-inning lead in an 11-10 loss to the Diamondbacks.

Kimbrel, of course, broke into the majors with Atlanta late in the 2010 season and immediately catapulted himself into stardom. He was the unanimous NL Rookie of the Year in 2011 — winning over teammate Freddie Freeman — after posting a 2.10 ERA with an NL-best 46 saves and a colossal 41.5% strikeout rate. He made the first of four straight All-Star teams that year — a remarkable run of four straight seasons that saw him lead the Senior Circuit in saves while garnering repeated Cy Young and MVP votes. From 2010-14, Kimbrel posted a comedic 1.43 ERA and 42.2% strikeout rate while racking up 186 saves. It’s arguably the best five-year from any reliever in the sport’s history.

Kimbrel has never quite recaptured that dominance, though he was still excellent from 2015-18 before running into some rough patches. He logged ERAs north of 5.00 in 2019-20 before bouncing back with a solid if tumultuous 2021-23 stint where he was often shakier than his surface-level numbers might initially suggest. His 2024 run with the Orioles started well — Kimbrel carried a 2.10 ERA into the All-Star break — but went off the rails in the season’s second half. From July 14 onward, Kimbrel was shredded for an 11.50 ERA in 18 innings before being released.

Now back in the Braves organization after signing a minor league deal, he’s looked terrific in Triple-A. Kimbrel carries flat 2.00 ERA in 18 innings. He’s set 33% of his opponents down on strikes, albeit against a 13% walk rate. He’s also working with a fastball that’s now sitting just 93.2 mph — nowhere near the sizzling 97-98 mph he averaged at his peak. Even as recently as 2023 with the Phillies, Kimbrel’s heater sat at 95.8 mph, but he’s now dropped nearly three ticks off that velocity.

Time will tell whether Kimbrel can get big league hitters out with such diminished power on his pitches and with command that’s clearly not up to par, but the bar to clear in Atlanta is low right now. Closer Raisel Iglesias saw his ERA balloon from 5.79 to 6.75 today. Scott Blewett, who’s been designated for assignment to make room on the roster for Kimbrel, yielded five runs on his way out the door. Daysbel Hernandez has a 2.22 ERA but has walked more than 19% of his opponents, so there’s no way he can continue at that pace. Trade acquisition Rafael Montero has a 5.29 ERA in 17 innings.

Atlanta has gotten good to great results from Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Enyel De Los Santos and Dylan Lee, but Iglesias has floundered all season and the final couple spots in the ’pen have been a revolving door. The hope will be that Kimbrel can help to solidify things, but recent seasons have shown that he’s susceptible to lengthy slumps not all that dissimilar from the one in which Iglesias is currently mired.

Braves To Designate Scott Blewett For Assignment

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The Braves are shaking up their bullpen after a heartbreaking loss. David O’Brien of The Athletic reports that the club is going to select right-hander Craig Kimbrel and recall left-hander Dylan Dodd. In corresponding moves, right-hander Daysbel Hernández will land on the 15-day injured list while righty Scott Blewett will be designated for assignment. The Kimbrel move was reported earlier today.

Blewett unfortunately lived up to his name today, leading to a deluge of social media jokes at his expense. Atlanta was leading this afternoon’s game against Arizona 9-3 through seven innings. Blewett was put into the game in the eight and allowed one run, making it 9-4. Atlanta got that run back in the bottom of the eighth, making it 10-4. Blewett was sent back out for the ninth with a six-run lead to protect and three outs to get. He struck out the first batter he faced but the next four reached. With the score having narrowed to 10-7, Atlanta went to closer Raisel Iglesias to get the final two outs. Unfortunately, he allowed Arizona to take an 11-10 lead before getting out of the inning. Atlanta couldn’t score in the bottom of the ninth to stay alive.

It was a heartbreaking loss in what has already been a rough stretch for the club. It was their fourth straight L and they are now 3-11 in their past 14 contests. Their overall record is 27-34, putting them behind all the other National League contenders in the standings. Blewett was charged with five earned runs in an inning and a third in today’s dagger.

Blewett, 29, is out of options. That’s led him to bounce around the league. He started the season with the Twins on a minor league deal and was added to that club’s roster for a few days in April before getting designated for assignment. He was then claimed off waivers by the Orioles, though that club also designated him for assignment a few days later. That led him to Atlanta on a cash deal.

He had a pretty decent run prior to today’s unpleasantness. Between those three clubs, he came into today with 24 innings and a 2.25 earned run average. His 22.8% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate were both around league average while his 58.5% ground ball rate was quite strong. The ERA climbed to 3.91 after today’s game but it’s been a solid season overall.

But since he’s out of options and the club is looking to shake things up by adding Kimbrel, a 40-man roster spot was needed, so Blewett heads into DFA limbo. That can last as long as a week but the waiver process takes 48 hours, meaning Atlanta could take as long as five days to explore trade interest. Though he’s out of options, he’s still in his pre-arbitration seasons, meaning he’s cheap. As mentioned, he’s been having a good year, today’s results notwithstanding.

As for Hernández, it’s unclear exactly what his injury is but he departed yesterday’s game and appeared to be in discomfort. More information should be revealed when he is officially placed on the injured list.

Photo courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images

Craig Kimbrel’s Braves Deal Contains Rolling Opt-Out Clause

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The Braves signed veteran closer Craig Kimbrel to a minor league deal in the middle of March. He hasn’t been called up to the big leagues yet but it seems that could happen at any time with any club. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Kimbrel’s deal has a clause that Rosenthal refers to as a “rolling opt-out”. This clause means that, if any other club offers him a major league job, Atlanta has to promote him or let him go.

The way Rosenthal describes it, it sounds more like an upward mobility clause than a strict opt-out. With an opt-out clause, a player usually has a specific date wherein he can trigger the clause and become a free agent. With an upward mobility clause, when the player triggers it, it gives teams around the league a chance to give the player a major league roster spot. There’s usually a time frame of 48 hours for such decisions. If any club wants the player, the original signing team then has to decide to call him up or let the claiming team have him.

Semantics aside, what seems to be unique in this case is the “rolling” nature of the clause. Rather than having specific dates mentioned in the contract, it seems that any of the 29 other clubs could trigger the clause at any time by offering Kimbrel a gig in the big leagues. If that happens, Atlanta would then have to decide to call him up or let him go.

That makes it somewhat surprising that Kimbrel isn’t in the majors already. He has thrown 17 innings in the minors this year, mostly at Triple-A but also with a few appearances at Double-A. He has a combined 1.06 earned run average on the year. His 12.5% walk rate is a bit high but he has struck out 32.8% of batters faced and kept 45.7% of balls in play on the ground. A .171 batting average on balls in play isn’t sustainable but his 2.43 FIP suggests he’s still doing quite well when correcting for some regression.

That’s a fairly small sample of work in the minor leagues but Kimbrel also has his lengthy major league track record. He is fifth on the all-time saves leaderboard with 440. He has a 2.59 ERA over 809 2/3 innings, along with a 38.8% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate.

More recently, his results have been less consistent, which is why he settled for a minor league deal coming into this year. He was quite shaky in 2019 and 2020, posting ERAs north of 5.00 in both of those seasons. He generally had better results for the 2021-23 campaigns but struggled again in 2024. He posted a 5.33 ERA with the Orioles last year, getting released in September.

Perhaps teams are putting more stock in last year’s struggles in the majors, as opposed to this year’s good results in the minors. His deal also comes with a $2MM base salary if he’s called up. Presumably, that’s prorated, leaving a bit less than $1.3MM to be paid out at this point. That’s relatively small by MLB standards but teams are often reluctant to add money in midseason pickups. Joel Payamps just passed through waivers unclaimed even though he was quite effective in 2023-24. His $2.995MM salary this year might have been a factor, in addition to the fact that his results have backed up.

Whatever the reasons, Kimbrel still doesn’t have a major league opportunity. But given that a number of clubs around the league are dealing with bullpen challenges and pitcher injuries are inevitable, a path could open for him. Given the specifics of this clause, he only needs one of the 30 clubs to bite.

Photo courtesy of Kareem Elgazzar, Imagn Images

Braves To Sign Craig Kimbrel To Minor League Deal

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The Braves and right-hander Craig Kimbrel have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The SportsMeter client will earn a $2MM salary if brought up to the big leagues, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’ll spend some time building up before reporting to Triple-A Gwinnett, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com.

Kimbrel, 37 in May, has been on a rollercoaster in recent years. He had a long run as one of the most effective closers in the league, starting that tenure with Atlanta. From 2010 to 2014, he tossed 289 innings for them, allowing only 1.43 earned runs per nine. His 9.6% walk rate was a bit high but he had a massive 42.2% strikeout rate in that time. He quickly became the club’s closer and earned 185 saves in a four-year stretch from 2011 to 2014. He would continue to produce similar results for a few years, going to the Padres and Red Sox.

But as alluded to, things have been far rockier lately. A free agent after 2018, Boston gave him a $17.9MM qualifying offer. Kimbrel rejected that offer, meaning that any signing club would have to forfeit at least one draft pick. That seemed to have a significant impact on his market, as he remained unsigned until after the summer draft, which was held in June at that time. No longer tied to draft pick forfeiture, he signed a three-year, $43MM with the Cubs in early June of 2019.

Perhaps it was due to missing the first half of the season, but Kimbrel’s results were awful once he became a Cub. He eventually made 23 appearances for them that year, posting an ugly 6.53 ERA. That carried over into the shortened 2020 season, as he had a 5.28 ERA that year. Over those two seasons, he still struck out 35.2% of opponents but his 14.5% walk rate was far higher than average.

In 2021, he seemed to rebound in a big way. He made 39 appearances for the Cubs that year with a tiny 0.49 ERA. His 9.5% walk rate was still above average but a massive improvement over the previous two years. He also punched out 46.7% of batters faced. He was shipped across Chicago at that year’s deadline, with the White Sox sending Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer to the Cubs. Unfortunately, his results immediately backed up, as he posted a 5.09 ERA over the remainder of the season.

Despite that rough finish, the Sox picked up his $16MM club option, though they traded him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock just prior to Opening Day 2022. Heading to Los Angeles seemed to work out for a while, though he again had a rough finish. He had a 33.8% strikeout rate in the first half but punched out just 20.7% of opponents in the second half. He lost the closer’s job in September and then was left off the Dodgers’ postseason roster.

Going into 2023, the Phils gave him a one-year, $10MM deal, which led to a good bounceback season. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA over 71 appearances that year, with a 33.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. But a one-year, $13MM deal with the Orioles last year led to another downturn. He had a 5.33 ERA for Baltimore, striking out 31.5% of batters but also giving out walks 13.4% of the time. He was designated for assignment and released in September.

The overall track record is obviously impressive. Kimbrel has a career ERA of 2.59 and is fifth on the all-time saves list. He’s just seven behind Kenley Jansen, who will close for the Angels this year, and 38 away from third-place Lee Smith. But he’s been incredibly shaky in recent years, so it’s anyone’s guess what he can provide this year.

There’s little harm on a minor league deal. Atlanta can get a close-up look at him over the next few weeks and see how it goes. If he doesn’t look like he can engineer another bounceback, they can simply move on. Some veterans have guaranteed opt-outs in their minor league deals, but that wouldn’t apply to Kimbrel since he was released before the end of the 2024 season. It’s possible he negotiated some opt-outs into his deal, though no details of that nature have been reported yet.

Atlanta’s bullpen took a hit when it was reported that Joe Jiménez will likely miss the entire season due to knee surgery. They should have Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson and Aaron Bummer locked into four spots. One of Ian Anderson or Grant Holmes could have a long relief role. That leaves three spots available early on. Daysbel Hernández is on the roster and could secure one.

The club also has a big collection of notable guys on minor league deals, including Héctor Neris, Enyel De Los Santos, Jake Diekman, Chasen Shreve, Buck Farmer and others. That is perhaps a reflection of the club hoping to avoid the competitive balance tax this year. Per RosterResource, they project to have a $230MM CBT number, about $11MM shy of the $241 base threshold. They have opted to sign many minor league deals and hope that a handful of them turn out to be hidden gems.

Kimbrel will jump into that cluster of non-roster veterans trying to earn major league jobs. He has the most impressive track record of anyone in that group but is a few weeks behind them and will have to overcome the memories of a poor 2024 season.

Photo courtesy of Tommy Gilligan and Kareem Elgazzar, Imagn Images.

Tigers Pursuing Relievers With Closing Experience

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The Tigers are interested in adding a late-inning reliever who has experience as a closer, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold identifies top unsigned reliever Carlos Estévez as one of a number of bullpen targets in whom the Tigers have shown interest.

Spending on relief pitching has picked up this month. Estévez’s own market has accelerated. Petzold writes that the Tigers are among six teams still in the mix for the hard-throwing righty. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the Reds remain in contact with Estévez’s camp. He was also linked to the Cubs — who are themselves evaluating a number of late-game options — last week. The Diamondbacks and Braves are among other teams known to be seeking relief help, though neither has been linked to Estévez specifically.

The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.

Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.

Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Kyle Finnegan are other free agent relievers with varying degrees of closing experience. (Kirby Yates is also technically unsigned but seems to be headed to the Dodgers.) Jansen and Robertson could command eight-figure guarantees. Finnegan is likely to sign for somewhere below the $8.6MM which he was projected to make in arbitration before he was non-tendered by the Nationals. He should command more than $5MM, though. Kimbrel would be a rebound flier after posting a 5.33 ERA for the Orioles last year.

Petzold writes that the Tigers’ action in the relief market has been held up by Alex Bregman’s extended free agency. Detroit has been one of the top four suitors for the star third baseman. Petzold reported earlier this week that talks were at a “standstill,” though, and the Astros have seemingly made a renewed push to bring him back. That doesn’t mean a move to Detroit is off the table, but it leaves the Tigers in something of a holding pattern.

According to Petzold, the Tigers are unlikely to land Bregman and a top reliever. He suggests they’d be more motivated to spend on a closer if Bregman signs elsewhere, which would lead them to look at a much lower tier of free agent hitter. A few teams have moved to prioritizing the bullpen with the hitting market have slowed down. The Tigers may eventually need to do the same or risk their top relief targets signing while they await Bregman’s decision.

Orioles Option Eloy Jiménez, Release Craig Kimbrel

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The Orioles announced that first baseman Ryan Mountcastle has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. Designated hitter/outfielder Eloy Jiménez was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk as a corresponding move. Jiménez has more than five years of major league service time and therefore can’t be optioned without his consent, so he presumably has agreed to this move. The club also announced that right-hander Craig Kimbrel, who was designated for assignment last week, has been released.

Jiménez was acquired from the White Sox at the deadline in a buy-low move. From 2019 through 2023, he had hit .275/.324/.487 for the White Sox, with that production translating to a 118 wRC+. Mounting injuries were becoming a growing concern but he had generally hit when on the field.

Here in 2024, the injury-prone label got branded a little deeper. He twice went on the IL in the first couple of months of the season, once due to a left adductor strain and another for a left hamstring strain. His production had also slipped, as he was hitting .240/.297/.345 for an 82 wRC+ when the Orioles traded for him, sending minor league reliever Trey McGough the other way.

The change of scenery hasn’t helped, as Jiménez has hit .232/.270/.316 for a 68 wRC+ since coming to Baltimore. The club had been battling a number of position player injuries in recent weeks but each of Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías and now Mountcastle have returned to the active roster in the past few days, which has squeezed Jiménez from the roster.

Though he has the right to reject an optional assignment, it’s understandable why he would accept. There’s only a handful of days left in the season and he wouldn’t be postseason eligible with any other club at this point. Rather than look for other opportunities, he will hold his 40-man roster spot with the O’s and hope to be able to contribute in the club’s postseason run at some point. He came into the campaign with exactly five years of service time and already has enough in 2024 to add another full season to that.

His contract has a $16.5MM option for 2025 with a $3MM buyout that the O’s are sure to decline after a rough season from Jiménez. As part of the trade, the White Sox are covering half of that buyout. That will send him to free agency where he will be looking to market himself as a bounceback candidate. It’s obviously been a rough season but he’s still fairly young, turning 28 in November, and has a strong pre-2024 track record.

As for Kimbrel, a release was the expected outcome after he was designated for assignment last week. He wouldn’t have been postseason eligible with any club claiming him off waivers. Even grabbing him for a few regular season games would be costly as his contract has a $1MM buyout on a 2025 club option. That would be on top of the roughly $400K of his $12MM salary that is still to be paid out in the final week of this season.

Given his 5.33 earned run average on the year, no club was going to pay that price. As a veteran with years of service time, he has the right to reject an outright assignment, so the O’s have simply skipped the formalities and let him go.

It will be an interesting offseason for Kimbrel, who is now 36 years old and coming off a rough showing. Some may expect him to call it a career but he has come back from down years before. In both 2019 and 2020, he posted an ERA north of 5.00, but bounced back with a 2.21 ERA in 2021. He then had two more solid seasons before his 2024 struggles. Some clubs may be interested in taking a flier and hoping for another comeback, though he likely won’t be the first choice of club’s with championship aspirations.

Orioles Designate Craig Kimbrel For Assignment

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve designated veteran right-hander Craig Kimbrel for assignment. Baltimore has recalled righty Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk in his place.

Kimbrel, 36, was signed to a one-year, $13MM deal over the winter after All-Star closer Felix Bautista required Tommy John surgery last October. The club banked on Kimbrel’s track record and excellent strikeout rate helping to solidify the ninth inning, even after Kimbrel had a shaky finish to his 2023 stint with the Phillies — including three innings of NLCS work wherein he yielded four runs.

At least early in the year, Kimbrel was generally effective, even while walking a highwire. His walk rate was up, but so was his strikeout rate, and in spite of four blown saves in the season’s first half he pitched to a pristine 2.10 earned run average. As things have gone off the rails since the All-Star break, he’s ceded the ninth inning to deadline pickup and former Phillies teammate Seranthony Dominguez.

Dating back to July 14, Kimbrel has been decimated for 25 runs (23 of them earned) in 18 innings of work. He’s yielded 23 hits (five of them homers), walked 17 batters and plunked a hitter during that disastrous run. The tipping point was a six-run meltdown in last night’s loss to the Giants. Kimbrel faced eight batters, allowed three hits (two singles and a double), walked two hitters and allowed a runner to advance on a wild pitch in what was his worst and likely last outing of the 2024 season.

Kimbrel will be placed on waivers, and he’ll surely clear. He’d be ineligible for the postseason roster with another club, and a claiming team would be on the hook for the prorated remainder of this year’s $12MM salary and the $1MM buyout on next year’s club option. No team is going to make that move. He’ll clear waivers and be released, at which point the club option will be moot (though the O’s will still owe him that $1MM buyout). He could sign with any other club for the final few days of the season, but it’s possible he’ll simply wait until the offseason to seek out his next opportunity.

Kimbrel’s second half has been so gruesome that it’s overshadowed his excellent first half, but a run of two bad months shouldn’t torch any and all interest in him over the winter. He’s not the dominant high-leverage force he once was, but he still fanned 31.5% of his opponents this season and turned in a strong 11.8% swinging-strike rate. His fastball is down from an average of 95.8 mph in 2023 to 93.9 mph in 2024, per Statcast. It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be handed a closing job this offseason, but assuming he wants to continue pitching, Kimbrel should find interest on lower-priced big league deals — perhaps with incentives based on games finished in the event that he ascends back to the closer’s role in his next destination.

Kimbrel currently ranks fifth all-time with 440 saves and is only six behind another still-active closer, Kenley Jansen, for the fourth spot on that list. Either pitcher could still catch Lee Smith for No. 3 all-time (478), but climbing north of 600 alongside Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman isn’t going to happen. In 809 2/3 career innings, Kimbrel has a 2.59 ERA, 56 wins, 26 holds and 1265 strikeouts (38.8%) to go along with those 440 saves.

Orioles Could Pursue Closing Help At Deadline

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The Orioles lead the American League with a 26-13 record, putting them half a game above the Yankees at the top of the AL East. Baltimore again looks like one of the best teams in the league and is trending towards buying at the deadline.

One area that could be a priority this summer: fortifying the back of the bullpen. Baltimore lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery last fall. They signed Craig Kimbrel — their only major league free agent pickup of the winter — to a $13MM deal to solidify the ninth inning. That hasn’t worked out quite the way the front office envisioned. Kimbrel has run into recent struggles that put his status as closer into question.

Baltimore used Kimbrel in the seventh inning in last Friday’s win over the Diamondbacks. Manager Brandon Hyde was noncommittal after that game about whether that signified a permanent role change for the nine-time All-Star. The O’s haven’t had a save situation since then, though they used Yennier Cano in the top of the ninth in a tied game (a situation in which a team typically calls on its closer) on Saturday. Kimbrel threw a scoreless 11th inning in that contest and got the win when the Orioles walked off in the bottom half.

There are more than two months for Kimbrel to pitch his way back into the ninth inning before the deadline. Still, the situation is flexible enough that the Orioles could consider alternatives if the veteran’s performance remains uneven. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend the O’s will monitor the status of established closers like Jordan Romano, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Pressly.

All three players are theoretical deadline trade possibilities, although they’re each on teams that entered the season expecting to contend. The Blue Jays are four games under .500 and sit last in the AL East. The Cardinals are at the bottom of the NL Central with a 16-24 record. At 15-25, the Astros have an even worse mark, though they’re at least ahead of the Angels in their division.

None of those clubs are going to start moving veteran players anytime soon. Houston GM Dana Brown recently shot down the possibility of selling in any capacity, although it seems likely the team would reconsider that approach if they remain well below .500 in July. All three are veteran-laden teams that surely won’t pivot to selling unless it’s clear they don’t have a path back to competing this year, though.

Romano, 31, has operated as Toronto’s closer for the last three seasons. He’s a two-time All-Star who has saved 36 games in consecutive years. Romano hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs per nine in any of the past three seasons. He opened this year on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He was reinstated in mid-April and has worked at his typical velocity (96.5 MPH fastball, 86.4 MPH slider). Romano is playing on a $7.75MM salary and is under arbitration control for one more season.

Helsley is also arbitration controlled through 2025. He’s making $3.8MM this year for the Cardinals. The 29-year-old has been one of the game’s most effective relievers on a rate basis going back to 2022. Helsley owns a 1.65 ERA with a massive 36.5% strikeout rate in 120 1/3 innings over the past two-plus seasons. The power righty pairs a fastball that averages more than 99 MPH with an upper-80s slider. After missing a good chunk of the 2023 campaign to a forearm strain, Helsley has been healthy this season. He has allowed just three earned runs with 21 strikeouts and two walks over 19 innings.

Things have been more rocky for Pressly, who has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) in his first 14 1/3 frames. The 35-year-old righty has managed 22 strikeouts with six free passes, though, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground more than half the time an opponent makes contact. Those secondary marks and Pressly’s career track record should lead to plenty of interest if the Astros get to a point where they’d seriously consider moving him at the deadline. Pressly has worked in a setup capacity to Josh Hader this year; he saved more than 30 games in each of the last two seasons.

From a financial perspective, Pressly would be a costlier add than either Romano or Helsley. He’s playing on a $14MM salary and has a matching option for 2025 that would vest if he appears in 50 games this season. He’s at 16 appearances already and looks well on track to triggering that option barring a notable injury.

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