Craig Kimbrel

Phillies Sign Craig Kimbrel

By Anthony Franco | January 4, 2023 at 1:00pm CDT

January 4: The Phillies have officially announced Kimbrel’s signing.

December 23: The Phillies are adding an established closer. They’re reportedly in agreement with Craig Kimbrel on a one-year, $10MM pact. Kimbrel is a SportsMeter client.

Philadelphia will be the seventh MLB team for Kimbrel, who is headed into his 14th season. He returns to the NL East, where he was arguably the sport’s best closer from 2011-14 as a member of the Braves. Kimbrel remained excellent after being dealt to the Padres and subsequently to the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski was running baseball operations in Boston while Kimbrel was there for three straight All-Star seasons between 2016-18. They’re now reunited with Dombrowski leading the charge in Philly.

Since leaving the Red Sox, Kimbrel has had his share of ups and downs. He lingered in free agency until June 2019 before securing a three-year commitment from the Cubs. That deal looked like a misfire after he posted an even 6.00 ERA in 41 appearances through the end of the 2020 campaign. However, he looked good as ever at the start of the third season. The right-hander posted a microscopic 0.57 ERA through 31 2/3 innings in the first half of 2021, securing his eighth All-Star selection in the process. The Cubs flipped him to the crosstown White Sox in a deadline deal that brought back Nick Madrigal.

Kimbrel didn’t finish the season all that well, posting a 5.09 ERA for the Sox. Chicago exercised a $16MM option on his services for the 2022 season but shopped him most of last winter. In the days leading up to Opening Day, they sent him to the Dodgers in a one-for-one swap for AJ Pollock. Kimbrel spent his age-34 campaign in Los Angeles, putting up solid numbers overall but showing some worrisome signs down the stretch.

While his first half ERA was a pedestrian 4.35, he struck out more than a third of opponents in that time. The Dodgers relied upon him as their primary closer early in the year, but he began to fall out of favor as the season pulled along. Kimbrel’s strikeout rate in the second half was a modest 20.7%. His ERA checked in at 3.10 thanks to a meager .227 batting average on balls in play against him. The Dodgers were clearly skeptical of Kimbrel’s ability to maintain that kind of batted ball fortune. They removed him from the ninth inning in September and scratched him from the roster entirely come playoff time.

It’s surely not the way either Kimbrel or the team envisioned the season ending, but his 2022 campaign was hardly a disaster. He posted a 3.75 ERA across 60 innings overall. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging strike percentage were each a bit better than par, and he averaged a quality 95.8 MPH on his fastball. He walked batters at a elevated 10.8% clip and gave up a fair bit of hard contact, but he still showed quality bat-missing stuff. While it wasn’t vintage Kimbrel or even at the level of his 2021 production, he showed enough to believe he’s still capable of solid play.

Kimbrel went 22 of 27 on save attempts this year. He’s now up to 394 saves for his career, most of any active player. Kimbrel should soon become the seventh pitcher in MLB history to reach the 400-save mark, and he’ll have a path back to ninth-inning work in Philadelphia. Players like José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez previously stood as the in-house favorites for closing work, though they’re each capable of taking on higher-leverage responsibilities in the seventh or eight inning.

It’s a relatively low-cost gamble for the Phils, matching the $10MM flier they took on Corey Knebel last offseason. They’ll have to tack on a few million extra in taxes, as they’re likely to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight season. Philadelphia’s luxury tax commitments are up to approximately $251MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re subject to a 30% tax on every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, so the Kimbrel signing comes with an extra $3MM in fees. It also brings them within a couple million dollars of the second CBT threshold at $253MM. That would come with a 42% tax on overages, with higher penalties in the event they top $273MM.

Precisely where owner John Middleton wants to draw the line isn’t clear, though the Phils have little reason to spare much expense on the heels of a pennant win. Philadelphia has already brought in Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker this winter, and Kimbrel joins Matt Strahm as relief additions. The Phils are set for another battle with the Mets and Braves in a top-heavy NL East, and they’ll hope Kimbrel has plenty of opportunities to lock down wins at the back end of the bullpen.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Kimbrel and the Phillies had agreed to a contract. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the one-year, $10MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers’ NLDS Roster Does Not Include Craig Kimbrel

By Darragh McDonald | October 11, 2022 at 1:31pm CDT

The Dodgers announced their roster for the NLDS today, with right-hander Craig Kimbrel not making the cut. Here’s who did make it…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Austin Barnes
Will Smith

Infielders

Outfielders

The Dodgers are in the postseason for a tenth consecutive season, winning the NL West in each of those seasons except last year. However, 2022 was the most impressive of the bunch as the club went 111-51, the highest win total in franchise history. They will now face off against division rivals, squaring up against the Padres in a best-of-five series.

Kimbrel’s omission from the roster is the latest step in what has been an extremely mercurial portion of his career. From 2010 to 2018, Kimbrel was one of the most dominant relievers in the sport, pitching to a 1.91 ERA while striking out 41.6% of batters faced and racking up 333 saves.

Since then, however, it’s been a rollercoaster for the righty. He was issued a qualifying offer by the Red Sox after the 2018 season, which he declined. He lingered on the open market all the way until June, eventually signing with the Cubs once the draft had already taken place and he was no longer attached to draft pick forfeiture. After missing nearly half the season, Kimbrel struggled that year by putting up a 6.53 ERA, then struggled again the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with a 5.28 ERA.

In the first half of 2021, he seemingly got the train back on the tracks, registering a 0.49 ERA over 36 2/3 innings, getting traded from the Cubs to the White Sox. However, the pendulum swung the other way after the trade, with Kimbrel posting a 5.09 ERA after moving across town. Nonetheless, they Sox picked up his $16MM option before trading him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock. Kimbrel recorded 22 saves for Los Angeles but was eventually moved off the closer role in September and now seems to have dropped far enough on the bullpen chart to be excluded from their playoff plans, unless an injury opens a spot for him down the line. He has a 3.75 ERA on the season, with a 27.7% strikeout rate that’s above league average but well below any of his previous seasons.

The exclusion of Kimbrel might actually say more about the Dodger bullpen than it does about him. Overall, the club’s relievers posted a 2.87 ERA this year, second only to the Astros, though L.A.’s bullpen logged 85 2/3 more innings than Houston’s. Along with quality starting pitching, an elite offense and strong defense, it’s not hard to see how this was the best team in baseball this year.

Dodgers Remove Craig Kimbrel From Closer Role

By Anthony Franco | September 23, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

The Dodgers are going to take a closer-by-comittee approach for the remainder of the regular season, manager Dave Roberts informed reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Craig Kimbrel will pitch in different roles while the club takes a variable approach to the ninth inning based on matchups.

Roberts didn’t guarantee he’d stick with the committee approach through the playoffs, although it’s hard to envision the Dodgers removing Kimbrel from the closing role for the final 12 regular season games before reinstalling him in the ninth at the start of the postseason. The decision comes in the wake of a dip in production for the eight-time All-Star, who has surrendered runs in three of his last four outings. That includes a game-tying homer to Christian Walker to blow a save opportunity yesterday against the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers walked off in the bottom of the ninth inning anyhow, but the blown lead finalized the team’s decision to take a more flexible approach with the playoffs on the horizon.

Kimbrel is in his first season as a Dodger. Acquired from the White Sox in a surprising one-for-one swap with AJ Pollock just before Opening Day, he’s made 57 appearances. Kimbrel certainly hasn’t been disastrous. He owns a 4.14 ERA across 54 1/3 innings, striking out an above-average 27.2% of opponents. His 9.6% walk rate is a bit higher than the league mark but not an untenable figure. He has successfully closed out 22 of his 27 save attempts. The right-hander’s overall production has been fine if unspectacular.

Nevertheless, Kimbrel clearly hasn’t performed at the level at which the Dodgers were hoping. The 34-year-old was arguably the best reliever in the game through last season’s first half with the Cubs. While he disappointed following a deadline trade to the White Sox — largely due to home run troubles — he still generated whiffs on an excellent 17.2% of his offerings with the South Siders. That led to some hope Kimbrel could continue pitching at an elite level in a new environment, but this season’s 12.1% swinging strike rate is only a bit better than average.

Taking Kimbrel out of the ninth inning should allow Roberts to be more judicious with his usage once the postseason arrives. Maximizing his work against right-handed hitters figures to be a priority. Kimbrel has held same-handed batters to a .208/.296/.307 line across 115 plate appearances this season; lefties, on the other hand, have managed a much more robust .266/.355/.431 showing in 124 trips.

The White Sox picked up a $16MM option on Kimbrel for this season before trading him to L.A. He’s in the final few weeks of that deal and will hit free agency for the second time in his career this offseason. In the interim, he’ll remain part of one of the game’s top relief corps.

That the Dodgers feel equipped to take the career-long closer out of the ninth inning is a testament to the strength of the remainder of their bullpen. Los Angeles enters play Friday with the majors’ second-lowest bullpen ERA (2.94) and fourth-best strikeout percentage (26.5%). Evan Phillips, a waiver claim from the Rays last August, almost immediately emerged as one of the best relievers in the game. The slider specialist has a 1.24 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate over 58 innings during his breakout campaign. Flamethrowing sinkerballer Brusdar Graterol has ridden a massive 63.5% ground-ball percentage to a 2.96 ERA. Deadline acqusition Chris Martin has a 1.71 mark with a laughable 26:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio since landing in Los Angeles. Southpaw Alex Vesia has the bullpen’s best strikeout rate (34.6%) and a 2.24 ERA in 51 2/3 frames.

That quartet looks likeliest to assume the highest-leverage work in the playoffs. Roberts can also call upon Kimbrel, Phil Bickford and Tommy Kahnle from the right side, while Caleb Ferguson and the rehabbing David Price are left-handed options. Yency Almonte has had a nice season of his own and is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and there’s still a possibility of Blake Treinen making a playoff return (although Treinen is currently on the injured list and continues to battle shoulder discomfort).

NL Notes: Kimbrel, Fedde, Cavalli, Nationals, Junis

By Mark Polishuk | August 21, 2022 at 10:55pm CDT

The Dodgers used Craig Kimbrel for the last inning of today’s 10-3 win over the Marlins, and the reliever delivered a perfect frame to mop things up. While not a save situation for Kimbrel, manager Dave Roberts told J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (Twitter links) and other reporters that Kimbrel and the team have agreed to base the right-hander’s workload going forward not on save chances, but rather on just getting regular outings. This wouldn’t preclude Kimbrel being used in save opportunities, of course, and Roberts said he could still choose to use Kimbrel in consecutive games.

It has been a shaky year for the veteran reliever, as between a subpar walk rate and a lot of hard contact allowed, Kimbrel has only a 4.46 ERA over 42 1/3 innings. A big .388 BABIP is responsible for some of these struggles, but consistency has been hard to come by in Kimbrel’s first season in Los Angeles. It has turned the ninth inning into a question mark for the Dodgers heading into the postseason, and it could be that Kimbrel’s adjusted role could be the team’s way of auditioning some other relievers for the closer’s job as October looms. It is also possible the Dodgers will rotate Kimbrel and many other pitchers into save situations as circumstances dictate, which may concern L.A. fans who have seen late-game breakdowns doom the Dodgers in past postseason trips.

AL East Notes: Pearson, Borucki, Harvey, Judge, Meadows, Rays, Pollock

By Mark Polishuk | April 2, 2022 at 5:12pm CDT

The Blue Jays are dealing with some injury concerns in their bullpen, as Nate Pearson is dealing with a non-COVID illness and Ryan Borucki left yesterday’s game with discomfort in his right hamstring. Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link) and other reporters that Borucki will undergo an MRI. More will be known about Borucki’s situation when the MRI results are in, but for Pearson, his illness has limited him to only two appearances thus far in Grapefruit League action.

In all likelihood, Pearson’s illness will keep him from making Toronto’s Opening Day roster. While this issue seems less serious than the other injuries that have sidelined the righty over the last two years, it represents yet another setback for the former top prospect. As for Borucki, the southpaw has been a pretty solid reliever when healthy, though he missed almost all of the 2019 season due to elbow problems and over two months of last season with a forearm strain. If another IL stint is required for Borucki, Tim Mayza will be the only left-hander in the Jays’ projected bullpen, which could open the door for Anthony Kay, Tayler Saucedo, or Andrew Vasquez to break camp.

Dodgers Trade AJ Pollock To White Sox For Craig Kimbrel

By Steve Adams | April 1, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

The Dodgers and White Sox are in agreement on a trade sending outfielder AJ Pollock to Chicago in exchange for reliever Craig Kimbrel, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The two teams have since announced the trade.

It’s a fairly stunning blockbuster involving two high-profile and highly paid veterans. Pollock is earning $10MM this season and is owed at least a $5MM buyout on a $10MM player option for the 2023 season. Kimbrel, meanwhile, is slated to earn $16MM this coming season after the ChiSox picked up a 2022 club option despite a poor performance following the trade that sent him from Chicago’s north side to the south side last summer.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that there is no money changing hands in the deal, which means the Dodgers are effectively adding an extra million dollars in financial commitments (assuming Pollock declines his player option at a net $5MM and tests free agency next winter). The Dodgers will also see their luxury ledger tick upward a bit as a result of the trade. Pollock’s contract was a four-year, $55MM deal but counted as five years and $60MM for luxury tax purposes, as the player option on the end of the contract was considered guaranteed money. Thus, the contract carried a $12MM luxury hit. As Matt Gelb of The Athletic recently reported, the new CBA stipulates that a traded contract’s remaining actual dollars will count toward the luxury tax. As such, Kimbrel will now represent a $16MM luxury hit for the Dodgers (rather than the $14.5MM he’d have represented under previous rules).

Setting aside the financial component of the blockbuster swap, the trade fills a need for both teams. The Dodgers’ bullpen was lacking a shutdown option late in the game, and Kimbrel restored his credibility as a dynamic ninth-inning option through the first four months of the 2021 season while closing games for the Cubs. He’ll now join Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson and young flamethrower Brusdar Graterol at the back of the Los Angeles bullpen.

For much of the 2021 season, Kimbrel looked back to his vintage form. In 36 2/3 innings with the Cubs, the 33-year-old righty (34 in May) posted a microscopic 0.49 ERA while racking up 23 saves and 46.7% of his opponents against a 9.4% walk rate. Kimbrel deservingly made the All-Star team, and the three-year, $43MM contract he’d signed in 2019 went from albatross to trade asset in a matter of months. The White Sox, looking to push what was already a clear division winner over the hump, traded injured second baseman Nick Madrigal and right-hander Codi Heuer to the Cubs in a crosstown blockbuster.

Kimbrel pitched a shutdown inning in each of his first two appearances with the Sox, and though he was rocked for three runs in his third outing, it looked like a blip on the radar when he bounced back with three more scoreless appearances thereafter. However, the right-hander’s struggles increased in the coming weeks as reports that Kimbrel was uncomfortable pitching in a setup capacity behind Sox closer Liam Hendriks gained prominence. Ultimately, Kimbrel posted an ugly 5.09 ERA in 23 regular season frames with the Sox before being trounced for another three runs (two earned) in two ALDS innings.

Whether Kimbrel’s struggles were indeed tied to the role in which he was pitching or whether that was a more narrative-driven explanation, the Dodgers clearly feel confident that he can return to the high level of performance he displayed with the Cubs last year. If that’s indeed the case, a bullpen that recently lost Kenley Jansen to the Braves (for this same $16MM price tag) will prove one of the most formidable in the sport.

The trade of Pollock also opens up playing time in the outfield for Chris Taylor, who’d previously been deemed the team’s primary second baseman. With Pollock and left-handed-hitting Matt Beaty now gone via trade — Beaty went to the Padres earlier this week — there’s room for Taylor to take over as the primary left fielder and longtime top prospect Gavin Lux to get in everyday reps at second base. Of course, that assumes no further additions are coming for the Dodgers. It’s at least worth noting that L.A. just traded its left fielder and has a right-handed-heavy lineup at a time when former All-Star outfielder Michael Conforto and his left-handed bat are still looking for a landing spot.

Meanwhile, the White Sox have yet to address a glaring hole in right field all offseason. The closest the Sox had come to bolstering the right field position was a recent trade for the Phillies’ Adam Haseley, but the Sox announced that Haseley was optioned to Triple-A just minutes before word of today’s trade broke. Pollock will now step right into the outfield mix, giving the Sox a quality option to pair with center fielder Luis Robert and left fielder Eloy Jimenez. The Sox went much of the 2021 season with first basemen Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets masquerading as corner outfielders, so bringing Pollock into the fold will give them a true outfielder — and a solid defensive one at that.

Pollock, who turned 34 this offseason, will come to the White Sox fresh off a .297/.355/.536 showing in 117 games/422 plate appearances with the Dodgers this past season. Typically a better hitter against lefties than righties — though his career marks against right-handed pitchers are still well above average — Pollock posted a more even split last season and was immensely effective at the plate regardless of opponent handedness.

That said, Pollock also spent more than a month on the injured list with a pair of hamstring strains, one in each leg. That marked the fourth time in the past five seasons — the shortened 2020 campaign the lone exception — that he’s spent at least a month on the shelf with an injury. Pollock has also missed time with a fractured elbow that cost him 150 games in 2016, a groin strain (2017), a fractured thumb (2018) and elbow surgery (2019) in recent years. Pollock played in a career-high 157 games in 2015, but he’s averaged just 88 games per 162-game season since that time. Notably, he did play in 55 of 60 possible games during the shortened 2020 campaign, which shouldn’t be completely overlooked when weighing questions about his durability.

Even if Pollock does miss time this year, the Sox have their share of fill-in options. Veteran Adam Engel gives Chicago a defensively gifted right-handed bat who can play any of the three outfield positions. Neither Vaughn nor Sheets graded out well in terms of defense last year, but they at least got their feet wet in the outfield and could handle some corner work on a short-term basis. The aforementioned Haseley is an option to be called up at any point and at least provide quality defense and a passable bat against righties. Utilityman Leury Garcia, meanwhile, is an option all over the infield or the outfield. Second baseman Josh Harrison has his share of experience in the outfield corners as well.

As for the Chicago bullpen, the team’s offseason dealings have helped to build a strong relief corps that looks formidable even sans Kimbrel. The Sox signed veteran righties Kendall Graveman (three years, $24MM) and Joe Kelly (two years, $17MM) to multi-year deals this winter. Of course, the Sox are subtracting not only Kimbrel but also free-agent righty Ryan Tepera (who went to the Angels on a two-year deal) and lefty Garrett Crochet, whom GM Rick Hahn announced is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery just minutes after announcing the Kimbrel/Pollock deal. Hendriks, Graveman, Kelly and lefty Aaron Bummer still give the Sox a strong quartet at the end of games, but they’ll need a few in-house options to step up in the middle innings — assuming no further outside additions, of course.

Ultimately, the swap serves as the rare one-for-one, pure baseball trade that sees teams exchange a pair of veterans to address a need on either side. It’s a mostly cash-neutral swap that gives the Sox a new everyday outfielder, the Dodgers their new closer and sets the stage for both veteran to play pivotal roles for their new teams — both during the regular season and quite likely in the playoffs.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Braves Discussed Craig Kimbrel Trade With White Sox

By Darragh McDonald | March 20, 2022 at 2:43pm CDT

The Atlanta Braves recently discussed a Craig Kimbrel trade with the White Sox, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, before the Braves signed Kenley Jansen. That one-year, $16MM deal for Jansen is an exact match for the one-year and $16MM remaining on Kimbrel’s contract, which perhaps suggests that Atlanta’s pursuit of Kimbrel is no longer in the cards.

Even before last year’s playoffs were finished, the writing seemed to be on the wall for Kimbrel and the White Sox. Reports at that time stated that the club’s plan was to pick up Kimbrel’s $16MM option and then trade him in the winter. With Liam Hendriks already present as an elite closer, Kimbrel was seen as surplus to requirements. Prior to the lockout, the club further bolstered their bullpen with the signing of Kendall Graveman, seemingly only increasing the odds of a Kimbrel trade. During the lockout, MLBTR listed him as one of the players most likely to be dealt in the post-lockout period.

However, after ten days of post-lockout frenzy and with Opening Day just over two weeks away, Kimbrel is still on the roster. The club also added yet another hard-throwing reliever recently, signing Joe Kelly to a two-year, $17MM deal.

Although the clock is ticking, there are still reasons to think Kimbrel could eventually be moved. The White Sox are currently projected for a payroll of $194MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s miles beyond the club’s record for an Opening Day number, which was last year’s $129MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Between Hendriks, Kimbrel, Graveman and Kelly, they have over $44MM devoted to four relievers this year. While they could just roll into the season trying to have a super bullpen, it still seems more likely that they look to subtract Kimbrel’s salary from the ledger. The Blue Jays were recently reported to have checked in on Kenley Jansen. With Jansen now signed to the Braves, perhaps the Jays and any unknown Jansen suitors could now pivot to a Kimbrel deal instead.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

By Tim Dierkes | February 8, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts. Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet. Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point. Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place. Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market. We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets. The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars. One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected. For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three. Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll. Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt. Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration. He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March. Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+. Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards. It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson. He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected. The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal. Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game. The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2. Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018. It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends. Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+. In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019. Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19. He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021. Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors. The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing. A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining. We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022. The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3. Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation. We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration. Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA. While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01. He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September. Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency. He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4. Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate. It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out. Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday. Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time. In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best. Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage. Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September. He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas? He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5. Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post. The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022. He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate. Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6. After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72. Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings. After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either. So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable. He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6. Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings. The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball. The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout. They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again. That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary. Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable. I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen. The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7. Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons. He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards. With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario. Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017. He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger. Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field. Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over. The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8. Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list. Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency. They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH. A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano. But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021. It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested? Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game. After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties. He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21. Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July. He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old. He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining. I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH. The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9. J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022. He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020. This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October. By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart. While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22. As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit. Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21. A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well. It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average. It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position. On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs. While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis. I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10. Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here. As such, he’s the least likely to be traded. In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20. Escobar is also capable of playing second base. McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well. It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays. Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected. A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20. Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period. A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well. McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021. McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month. He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat. 30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11. Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job. As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well. Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher. Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career. WAR is always tricky with catchers. FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross. The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency. Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras. At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload. The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending. A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends. A midseason trade is a possibility as well. The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12. Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade. He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19. His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain. Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19. He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration. He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return. Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13. Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi. After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th. Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month. In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches. In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury. Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart. 32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year. He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings. You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season. The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14. Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees. However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production. This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee. He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time. We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year. He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry! We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

What If The White Sox Don’t Trade Craig Kimbrel?

By Mark Polishuk | January 16, 2022 at 9:40pm CDT

While the White Sox exercised their $16MM club option on Craig Kimbrel back in November, Chicago GM’s Rick Hahn hinted that the veteran closer could very well be in a different uniform come Opening Day 2022. “What we have to figure out is if it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him perhaps via trade?” Hahn told reporters, thus setting the stage for weeks of trade rumors before the lockout halted all big league trade activity. The signing of Kendall Graveman prior to the transactions freeze also seemed to indicate that Kimbrel would be moved, as the White Sox now had his replacement readied.

Kimbrel’s salary, age (he turns 34 in May), his lack of success in 2019 and 2020, and his struggles after joining the Sox at the trade deadline are all notable obstacles to any deal. The clearest avenue towards a trade might be some kind of swap of unfavorable contracts, with the White Sox moving Kimbrel for another high-salaried player that could be a fit for second base, right field, or another of Chicago’s positions of need. Or, in a longer shot, there might be a bullpen-needy team out there willing to cover most or all of Kimbrel’s contract, with this team less focused on Kimbrel’s aforementioned red flags and more on the incredible numbers he posted for the Cubs during the first four months of the 2021 campaign.

As much as Kimbrel didn’t pitch well post-trade, his early-season dominance can’t be written off. Kimbrel posted a 0.49 ERA, 46.7% strikeout rate, and a 37.2% strikeout-to-walk rate, looking all the world like he’d bounced back to his early-career star form. This performance was why the Cubs were able to command a high price for Kimbrel at the deadline, resulting in the acquisition of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer from their Windy City rivals.

Declining Kimbrel’s option would’ve meant the White Sox would’ve gotten nothing at all for that big trade outlay. So, as risky as it may seem, exercising Kimbrel’s option and dealing him now might allow the Sox salvage a good return (if obviously not a Madrigal/Heuer return) and get a new player who can help them take that next step forward in the postseason.

But, for all of the Kimbrel trade speculation, there has been far less buzz over the other portion of Hahn’s statement. While it can be assumed that the team’s preference is to work out a trade, what if such an acceptable deal can’t be found, and thus “it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward“?

NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber recently explored the challenges of a Kimbrel trade, and floated the possibility that Kimbrel might wind up returning to the White Sox bullpen. “Yes, it would seem quite strange for Hahn to take the seemingly significant step of talking about a Kimbrel trade in the open only to not make a deal,” Duber notes, and yet it isn’t exactly a worst-case scenario for the Sox to have what might be a potentially loaded bullpen.

With closer Liam Hendriks headlining a group of Kimbrel, Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Jose Ruiz, and (depending on how he is deployed) Garrett Crochet, there’s a lot of talent in that relief corps. This type of depth might also be a necessity given the questions in Chicago’s rotation — Carlos Rodon seems likely to sign elsewhere in free agency, Dallas Keuchel struggled in 2021, and Michael Kopech might not yet be ready to assume a full starters’ workload. If the White Sox bullpen can consistently eat three or more innings per game, however, that significantly reduces what is required of the starters, and helps keep them fresh for the playoffs.

This assumes that Kimbrel will be a solid contributor himself in 2022, rather than the homer-prone reliever who allowed five home runs and posted a 5.09 ERA over 23 innings with the ChiSox. As small as that sample size is, Kimbrel’s 36 2/3 innings with the Cubs last season isn’t much larger, so it remains to be seen exactly which Kimbrel might show up next year.

Breaking down Kimbrel’s Sox tenure, it is worth noting that a lot of his problems were contained to two brutal games — ironically, both against the Cubs. Kimbrel allowed three runs over two-thirds of an inning against the Cubs on August 6, and then three more runs against his former team in an inning of work on August 27. Subtract those two outings from the equation, and Kimbrel suddenly has a much more impressive 2.95 ERA over 21 1/3 frames with the White Sox, and only two home runs allowed.

There might also be a more basic reason why Kimbrel didn’t pitch well with the White Sox. The right-hander tossed only 36 total regular-season innings over the 2019-20 seasons, before jumping back up to 59 2/3 IP in 2021. As Jordan Lazowski of the Sox On 35th blog observed, Kimbrel’s fastball velocity declined by 1.7 mph from June to September, leading to a natural decrease in the quality of his fastball, and some mechanical issues that seemed to develop as Kimbrel tried to adjust and compensate.

In theory, if the 2021 season helped get Kimbrel’s arm re-acclimated to an increased workload, it could bode well for the righty to keep things going for all six months of the next regular season (and, the White Sox hope, into October). This is another instance where a deep Chicago bullpen can come in handy, as if Tony La Russa can pick and choose from several quality options for close late-game situations, Kimbrel’s innings can be managed to some extent.

Keeping Kimbrel’s $16MM on the books gives the White Sox less flexibility for other moves this winter, as the Pale Hose are already projected for a team-record high number of roughly $180MM in 2022. Yet, if Hahn and company can move some other money around to get that second baseman or right fielder, or if ownership green-lights more spending, a Kimbrel deal wouldn’t be so critical to Chicago’s post-lockout plans.

Phillies Notes: Schwarber, Knebel, Bullpen

By Steve Adams | December 8, 2021 at 1:29pm CDT

The Phillies, like most teams around the league, have plenty of work to do once the lockout is resolved and a new collective bargaining agreement is in place. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes the Phils “pursued [Kyle] Schwarber hard” prior to the lockout but weren’t able to finalize an agreement.

The 28-year-old Schwarber (29 in March) shook off a slow couple months to begin the 2021 season, ripping through MLB pitching at a Herculean clip throughout the summer and into the postseason. The longtime Cubs slugger inked a one-year deal with the Nats last winter, found himself traded to the Red Sox despite being on the injured list due to a hamstring injury, and finished the regular season with a combined .266/.374/.554 batting line and 32 home runs in just 471 plate appearances. Schwarber added three more homers in the playoffs, though he closed out October with an 0-for-15 skid following an epic grand slam in Game 3 of the ALCS.

When finished, the new collective bargaining agreement is expected to include a universal designated hitter, which would make it easier for the Phillies (or another team) to slide the defensively challenged Schwarber into the lineup. He could still see some reps in left field or even at first base, of course, but Schwarber would be viewed largely as a much-needed bat to pair with reigning MVP Bryce Harper in Philadelphia.

Schwarber ought to have plenty of other suitors, as he’s been linked to the Red Sox, Nationals, Marlins and others since the offseason began. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported not long ago that Schwarber is seeking a deal of at least three years and $20MM annually, though with enough competition the asking price could obviously further increase.

While supplementing the lineup with some help for Harper is a major goal, it wasn’t the top priority for Philadelphia this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made clear that solidifying the ninth inning was one of his top needs this winter, and the Phils look to have checked that box already.

Corey Knebel and the Phillies got their one-year, $10MM contract in just hours before the expiration of the 2016-21 CBA, and he’s expected to serve as the team’s closer in 2022, writes Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Dombrowski noted that he did not promise that role to Knebel (link viaNBC Philly’s Jim Salisbury), but he strongly suggested as much, telling reporters that Knebel opted for a one-year deal in order “to show people that he’s a dominant closer again” now that he’s healthier.

Knebel, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019, saw his fastball velocity jump two miles per hour from the 94.6 mph he averaged in his abbreviated return to the mound in 2020. While his 29.7% strikeout rate didn’t match the ridiculous 40.2% mark he posted in Milwaukee from 2017-18, it was nevertheless a strong mark and a reminder that Knebel can be as dominant as any reliever in the game when at his best.

Gelb suggests that a subsequent acquisition of Craig Kimbrel is unlikely to be in the cards, as the Phils aren’t likely to want to commit $26.5MM to a pair of relievers. Still, Knebel certainly won’t be the only addition to the ’pen. Said Dombrowski: “We’ve got a guy that we think will close games for us, and that’s a big start. Then we can kind of build the rest of the bullpen.”

The addition of Knebel and the Phillies’ one-year, $1.4MM deal with utilityman Johan Camargo pushed the team’s payroll to a bit more than $181MM — with a near-identical tally in terms of luxury obligations, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That’s well shy of last year’s $197MM end-of-season payroll and the even-larger $206.5MM in luxury obligations the team carried. Assuming the $210MM luxury-tax threshold is ultimately increased in a new CBA, the Phils could have quite a bit more luxury breathing room than the $29MM they already possess at the moment.

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