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Carlos Santana

Royals Place Carlos Santana On 10-Day Injured List

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First baseman Carlos Santana has been placed on the Royals’ 10-day injured list due to right ankle bursitis.  Emmanuel Rivera was called up from Triple-A to take Santana’s spot on the active roster.

Kansas City manager Mike Matheny told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that Santana suffered the injury while running the bases in Monday’s game, and continued soreness caused Santana to be a late scratch from Tuesday’s lineup.  No specific timeline was suggested for Santana’s return, but he might not be out of action too far beyond the 10-day minimum.

While it seems as though Santana has escaped a serious injury, the absence is still unlucky, as Rogers notes that Santana has finally started to produce at the plate.  The veteran slugger’s four-game hitting streak is pretty modest, yet it still stands out as a positive sign after Santana hit only .104/.307/.188 over his first 62 plate appearances.  After signing a two-year, $17.5MM free agent deal with the Royals in the 2020-21 offseason, Santana has still yet to get on track in a K.C. uniform, as he struggled through an injury-hampered 2021 campaign.

Hunter Dozier or Ryan O’Hearn are probably the likeliest candidates to fill in at first base during Santana’s absence.  Top prospect Nick Pratto is hitting pretty well at Triple-A, though the Royals might not call Pratto up and start his MLB service clock if Santana is only going to miss a couple of weeks.

Trade Candidate: Carlos Santana

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Carlos Santana was an above average hitter in every season of the first decade of his career. In his first taste of the big leagues, 2010, he only played 46 games but knocked six homers and walked more than he struck out, slashing .260/.401/.467 for a wRC+ of 141. In each of the next nine seasons, he played at least 143 games, hit at least 19 home runs and never had a walk rate lower than 13.2% or a wRC+ lower than 108.

In 2020, his age-34 season, things didn’t go so smooth, as he hit just .199/.349/.350, wRC+ of 99. However, there were still reasons for optimism. Firstly, it was a small sample of just 60 games, due to the pandemic. Secondly, the walk rate was still excellent, coming in at 18.4%. Thirdly, his .212 batting average on balls in play was well below his previous seasons, suggesting that perhaps bad luck was dragging him down somewhat.

The Royals seemingly favored that optimistic view, as they beat the market and signed Santana to a two-year contract with a $17.5MM guarantee prior to the 2021 season. At the time, the club had posted a losing record in four straight seasons, but believed the time was right to act aggressive in trying to bolster a young core and attempt to open a competitive window.

Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan for Santana or the team. Although the walks were still there, as evidenced by his 13.1% rate, his line of .214/.319/.342 only amounted to a wRC+ of 83. The BABIP rebounded, but only slightly, to .227. As for the team, they finished well out of contention with a record of 74-88.

The Royals now have a bit of a crowded infield mix for a few reasons. While Adalberto Mondesi was on the shelf last year, Nicky Lopez took over the shortstop job, pushing Mondesi to third base upon his return. That pushed Hunter Dozier into spending some time at first base and the corner outfield spots. Then there’s the looming presence of top prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto. Witt should eventually be playing regularly at shortstop or third base, which could push Mondesi into some time at DH, or push Lopez to second, pushing Whit Merrifield into the outfield, which bumps someone else into DH time.

Pratto, however, is a more direct source of pressure on Santana, as he is almost exclusively a first baseman, playing just three games in the outfield last year. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Pratto hit 36 home runs with a line of .265/.385/.602, wRC+ of 156.

That crowded position player mix makes Santana a clear trade candidate, given that he has just one year and $10.5MM remaining on his contract. The trouble for the Royals lies both in that they would be trading low on Santana and also that there are other first base options available to those teams looking for one. The free agent market features Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo as the high profile names, along with other options such as Daniel Vogelbach, Brad Miller, Albert Pujols and many more. On the trade front, Matt Olson is widely expected to be traded after the lockout. Luke Voit could be on the move if the Yankees find another option. Even if the Royals want to go the route of including a prospect to help stimulate a Santana trade, they’d be competing with the Padres who are known to be trying to take the same approach with Eric Hosmer.

It might be a challenge to hastily work out a deal during the transaction frenzy that will surely take place between whenever the lockout ends and the season gets underway. Perhaps the best path forward for the Royals is to hold onto Santana and hope that he can get things back on track, either to help the team compete or to rebuild trade value. He was dealing with a quad issue at times last year, which he has now recovered from, but he will turn 36 in April, making it harder to expect perfect health and ideal production going forward. Though late career bounceback campaigns are certainly possible, as Joey Votto just showed in his age-37 season.

Quick Hits: Santana, Nimmo, Bedell

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After receiving a PRP injection in October, Carlos Santana said that “Now, I feel 100 percent” in the wake of an injury-plagued season, the Royals first baseman told The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy.  This tracks with the 4-6 week timeline Santana initially gave in the wake of the injection, which was meant to help treat the Grade 2 quad strain that plagued the veteran slugger during the last six weeks of the season.  Between the quad and other leg problems, Santana clearly wore down in 2021, batting only .185/.217/.284 over his last 351 plate appearances.

With this rough season lingering, Santana said that he is “working on a couple things that I need to help me, my swing and my body.  That’s the only thing I changed.  I started early, working out, compared to the year before.”  Now entering his age-36 season, Santana has posted two below-average offensive years (as per the wRC+ metric) since his 2019 All-Star campaign, which is a little ominous for a Royals team that still owes Santana $10.5MM in 2022.  While Santana has bounced back strongly from disappointing years in the past, 2021 was the worst of his 12 big league seasons by just about every metric, so Santana will have more of a climb to recapture his old form.

More from around the baseball world as we enter 2022….

  • Brandon Nimmo is a free agent next winter, and “the expectation is” that the Mets will pursue a contract extension, The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes.  Nimmo has a strong .266/.393/.445 slash line over six career MLB seasons, yet he has only 1695 PA and 457 games on his big league resume due to a variety of injuries.  Given this checkered health history, one wonders how much of a long-term commitment New York would be willing to make to Nimmo, or if the Mets might only be willing to offer an extension at a relatively team-friendly price.  From Nimmo’s perspective, he will have to weigh locking in some form of a guaranteed payday, or perhaps betting on himself to stay healthy and productive, thus potentially setting him up for a much richer free agent contract from the Mets or another team in the 2022-23 offseason.  Hypothetically, the incentive-heavy extension between the Twins and another oft-injured outfielder in Byron Buxton could serve as something of a model for a Nimmo extension, if likely at a lower price point than the $100MM in guaranteed money that Buxton will receive.  (Interestingly, Nimmo and Buxton are more comparable than one might think, in terms of fWAR.)
  • Cardinals prospect Ian Bedell is set to make some light throws off a mound this week, according to Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This marks Bedell’s first work off a mound since he underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and the 22-year-old has been able to continue his rehab normally with minor league staff, as Bedell and minor league team personnel aren’t subject to the lockout.  The right-hander is tentatively still on schedule to return to action by May 2022, as Bedell is eager to resume a pro career that has already been set back by the pandemic and now his TJ procedure.  Bedell was a fourth-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2020 draft, and he tossed only 2 2/3 innings for the team’s high-A affiliate before being shut down for surgery last season.

Infield Notes: Harrison, White, Santana

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Free agent utilityman Josh Harrison fielded multiple offers from teams before the institution of the lockout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. As is to be expected given Harrison’s skillset, Nicholson-Smith suggests different clubs have indicated they’d deploy the 34-year-old in different roles depending on team need. This past season, he started games at six positions — second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield spots, with the bulk of that work coming at second and third base.

Harrison is coming off a decent season split between the Nationals and A’s. The right-handed hitter posted a .279/.341/.400 line with eight home runs across 558 plate appearances, numbers that check in a touch above the league average by measure of wRC+. While he didn’t draw many walks or hit for much power, Harrison’s minuscule 13.4% strikeout rate enabled him to hit for a solid batting average. It’s worth noting, though, that the two-time All-Star’s production tailed off following the midseason trade that sent him to Oakland. After starting at a strong .294/.366/.434 clip across 359 plate appearances in Washington, Harrison hit only .254/.296/.341 over 199 trips to the dish in the Bay Area.

Some notes on other infield situations around the game:

  • Mariners first baseman Evan White has fully recovered from the season-ending left hip surgery he underwent in mid-July and has begun some baseball activities, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. While a return to full health is an unequivocal positive, there’s still plenty of question about how productive White will be in 2022. After all, he’s already been supplanted on the depth chart by Ty France, who looks cemented as the regular first baseman following a .291/.368/.445 showing in 2021. White, who’s under contract through at least 2025 thanks to the pre-debut extension he signed in November 2019, owns only a .165/.235/.308 line across 306 career MLB plate appearances. The 25-year-old did win a Gold Glove award in 2020, but he’ll obviously need to be far more productive offensively to earn everyday playing time. Divish writes that some within the organization feel White could benefit from more time at Triple-A, and he does still have all three minor league option years remaining. He’s expected to see some outfield time in Spring Training to broaden his defensive versatility, although the bigger question figures to be his form at the plate once gameplay resumes.
  • As part of a reader mailbag, Alec Lewis of the Athletic suggests the Royals could attempt to find a taker for Carlos Santana coming out of the lockout. That’d assuredly require some creativity — including cash, taking back an undesirable contract as part of the trade, including a prospect of note, etc. — given how Santana performed in 2021. The generally reliable veteran hit only .214/.319/.342 over 659 plate appearances, easily the worst production of his career. The switch-hitter continued to avoid strikeouts (15.5%) and draw plenty of walks (13.1%), but his results on contact cratered. Santana is guaranteed $10.5MM in 2022, the final season of a two-year deal. Kansas City has first base prospect Nick Pratto on the doorstep of the majors after combining for a .265/.385/.602 line between the minors’ top two levels. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Pratto eventually starts to see playing time at Santana’s expense even if Kansas City doesn’t find a way to pull off a trade this winter.

AL Notes: Athletics Ballpark, Santana, Orioles, Yankees

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The Alameda County board of supervisors voted (by a 4-1 margin) Tuesday to join the Athletics and the city of Oakland in the team’s attempts to construct a new ballpark at the Howard Terminal site in Oakland.  The county’s agreement is non-binding, and as Annie Sciacca of The Bay Area News Group explains, many steps remain before construction can or would actually begin on a new A’s stadium, or how financing for the development project would break down between the county, city, and the team.  Still, “I think our willingness to at least go further based on the motion gives the county the opportunity to do more due diligence around this,” supervisor Nate Miley said.

More from around the American League…

  • Carlos Santana will require 4-6 weeks of recovery time after receiving a PRP injection to treat a quad strain, the Royals first baseman tells The Athletic’s Alec Lewis, which should give Santana plenty of time to be ready for Spring Training.  Testing after the season revealed that Santana had a Grade 2 quad strain, and Santana said he’d been playing on the injury for the season’s final six weeks, since he hurt himself trying to beat out a grounder in a game on August 23.  Even prior to the quad injury, Santana’s performance was already tailing off badly, and the veteran slugger’s first season in K.C. resulted in a career-worst .214/.319/.342 slash line over 659 plate appearances.  Santana is set to earn $10.5MM in 2022, the final season of the two-year, $17.5MM free agent pact he signed with the Royals last winter.
  • November 19 is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Orioles are one of several clubs facing some tough decisions about how to protect and who to expose.  Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com believes that since the O’s have something of a surplus of infield prospects, any excess infielders (such as Adam Hall or Cadyn Grenier) could be more likely to be left off the 40-man.
  • The Yankees’ huge arbitration class includes Gary Sanchez (projected to make $7.9MM in 2022) and Luke Voit ($5.4MM), who each somewhat fell out of favor in the Bronx.  The catching market is thin enough that The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler doesn’t think the Yankees would non-tender Sanchez, yet cutting ties with Voit isn’t out of the question, as New York is looking to make its roster more athletic and versatile.  One would expect the Yankees to once again explore the trade market for Voit rather than just let him go for nothing, as while Voit’s 2021 production was down sharply from his 2018-20 numbers, he still managed above-average offense (109 OPS+, 111 wRC+) even while batting multiple injuries.  That said, if an acceptable trade offer couldn’t be found, Voit wouldn’t be the only first base-only slugger to find himself non-tendered come arbitration time, as teams have trended away from somewhat one-dimensional players with limited defensive capability.

Royals Notes: Moore, Duffy, Merrifield, Barlow

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The Royals parted ways with Danny Duffy yesterday, trading the veteran left-hander to the Dodgers for a player to be named later.  Given Duffy’s long history with the Royals, it was a tough call for GM Dayton Moore, who told reporters (including Lynn Worthy of The Kansas City Star) that Duffy was “a family member” for the organization.

It remains to be seen if more difficult decisions are in store for Moore and company, as the Royals have a number of interesting trade chips.  However, Moore indicated that the club would be more apt to move rental players, as opposed to players who are controlled beyond the 2022 season.  By name, Moore said that the team didn’t want to move any of Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, or Mike Minor, though said the Royals would remain “open” to ideas.

The Royals signed both Santana and Minor as part of a rather busy offseason, indicating that the team felt it was to some extent on the other end of its semi-rebuild phase.  After a hot start, Kansas City has since faded to a 45-56 record, though it makes sense that the Royals wouldn’t want to deal all their veterans and entirely start from scratch heading into 2022.

Merrifield’s name has been floated in trade rumors, as the Royals have reportedly been at least a little more willing than in the past to hearing what other clubs had to offer for the multi-position speedster.  However, the Royals were known to be putting a hefty price tag on Merrifield, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Merrifield “is likely” to remain in K.C. beyond today’s deadline.

Given Moore’s hesitations about moving veterans controlled for just one more season, it seems even more far-fetched that Kansas City would trade a player like Scott Barlow, though The Athletic’s Jayson Stark hears that multiple clubs have some interest in the right-hander.  Barlow has a 2.70 ERA/3.36 SIERA and a 31% strikeout rate over 50 innings out of the Royals’ bullpen this season, and has been generally solid since making his MLB debut in 2018.  Barlow is controllable through the 2024 season, so the Royals could demand for quite a bit in a reliever-hungry trade market, assuming they’re inclined to deal Barlow at all.

East Notes: Mets, Jays, O’s, Nats

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The Mets are interested in righty reliever Liam Hendriks, arguably the No. 1 bullpen arm available on the open market, per Andy Martino of SNY. He’d be the second major relief addition this offseason for the Mets, who signed Trevor May to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee last week. Hendriks, previously with the Athletics, was perhaps the most dominant reliever in baseball during the previous two seasons. In that 108 1/3-inning stretch, the 31-year-old logged a matching 1.66 ERA/FIP, notched 13.21 K/9 against 1.83 BB/9, and recorded 39 saves in 47 opportunities. While the New York club has some level of interest in cross-town star D.J. LeMahieu, David Lennon of Newsday writes, it’s more on the “periphery” in that pursuit at the moment.

More from the eastern divisions:

  • The aforementioned Hendriks and fellow free-agent reliever Brad Hand “are believed to be” on the Blue Jays’ radar, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet writes (their interest in Hand was previously reported). Either pitcher would further strengthen a Toronto bullpen that finished 24th in the majors in ERA and 28th in K/BB ratio last season. It seems the Toronto organization is still casting rather a wide net in its free agent search. Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star recently linked the team to a number of big names at a variety of positions.
  • Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Tuesday that the team is unlikely to give out any multiyear contracts in free agency (Twitter links via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun). However, Elias acknowledged the Orioles are hunting for a new shortstop after trading Jose Iglesias to the Angels last week. Elsewhere, Elias said the Orioles plan to keep righty Alex Cobb, who has one year and $15MM left on his contract. Cobb had a decent year in 2020 (4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings), though he may be a tough sell at his current salary.
  • Sticking with the Orioles, beleaguered first baseman Chris Davis revealed Wednesday (via Melo) that he has no plans to hang up his cleats at this point. “I don’t want it to end the way that things have gone the last few years for me. I think there’s more of a story to be told but as far as my contract is concerned, it is what it is,” said Davis. “I’m not going anywhere. I’m not giving up. I’m not throwing in the towel. I understand the club is in a position right now to where they’re trying to cut payroll, and I’m the one big lump that they’re kind of stuck with. But they knew what they were signing up for when they took the job.” Davis’s seven-year, $161MM contract has been an unmitigated disaster for the Orioles, but he’s certainly not obligated to walk away from the remaining two seasons even if the club would prefer it. The 34-year-old is coming off a third-straight woeful season. Davis took just 55 plate appearances, failed to hit a home run and posted a brutal minus-14 wRC+.
  • Moving south on 95, the Nationals have a need for just the sort of player Davis once was. The D.C. organization put in an effort to lure Carlos Santana before he latched on with the Royals, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. Missing on the veteran slugger makes it likelier that the Nats will end up putting together some kind of timeshare at first, as there isn’t a clear everyday alternative available in free agency. It also keeps the door open to a return for Nationals stalwart Ryan Zimmerman, whose intentions remain unknown.

Royals Sign Carlos Santana

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3:03PM: The Royals have officially announced the signing.

1:06PM: The Royals have agreed to a two-year deal with free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  The contract is worth $17.5MM in guaranteed money, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link), with another $1MM available in incentives.  The majority of the money will come in 2022, as the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that Santana will earn $7MM in 2021 and then $10.5MM in the second year of the deal.  Santana is represented by Octagon’s Ulises Cabrera and Brian Mejia.

The $17.5MM matches what Santana would have earned in 2021 had the Indians exercised their club option on his services.  Instead, Cleveland declined the option and bought Santana out for $500K, sending him into free agency.

This is the Royals’ second notable two-year free agent contract in as many weeks, following their two-year pact with Mike Minor worth $19MM in guaranteed money.  Kansas City had over $23.5MM coming off their books in the form of expired contracts for Ian Kennedy and Alex Gordon and Maikel Franco being non-tendered, and now just about all of that money has been reinvested in the form of Santana, Minor, and Michael A. Taylor.

As a smaller-market team facing a bigger financial hit than most clubs in 2020 given the lack of revenue-sharing funds, this type of aggressive spending from the Royals is a little surprising, yet it signals that owner John Sherman (who bought the team last offseason) is willing to green-light some significant roster upgrades.  GM Dayton Moore openly said that he plans to field a competitive team in 2021, and while the Twins, White Sox and (even likely without Francisco Lindor) Indians still loom as powers in the AL Central, the organization clearly feels it is possible to contend.

Kansas City is very familiar with Santana over his years in Cleveland, and Santana has more career home runs (31) and RBI (93) against the Royals than any other opponent over his 11 Major League seasons.  2020, however, was a down year for veteran, as he hit .199/.349/.350 over 255 plate appearances for the Tribe — the lowest numbers Santana has ever posted in all three slash-line categories.  While he still led the American League with 47 walks, Santana’s power numbers dropped significantly, and he posted his lowest hard-hit ball and barrel percentage (as per Statcast) of the last six seasons.

It isn’t what you want to see out of a player entering his age-35 season, making it somewhat surprising that Santana was able to land such a healthy two-year guarantee in free agency.  (MLBTR projected Santana for a one-year, $6MM deal.)  Still, Santana had only a .212 BABIP last season and his .360 xwOBA far outpaced his .311 wOBA, so some misfortune was baked into his lackluster results.  Combine this lack of batted-ball luck with the small sample size of the shortened 2020 season, and there’s certainly reason to imagine Santana could look like his old self next year.  It was just in 2019 that Santana hit .281/.397/.515 with 34 homers for Cleveland, earning the first All-Star and Silver Slugger nods of his long career.

Santana played all 60 games at first base last season, with somewhat mixed reviews (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, but -2.0 UZR./150 and -2 Outs Above Average) depending on the metric.  Still, Santana has long been at least an average defender at first base, so he is likely to get the bulk of playing time at the position in 2021, with likely a fair number of DH days included to keep him fresh.

With Santana at first base and Franco gone, it now looks at if Hunter Dozier will slide back across the diamond to play third base.  Dozier didn’t exactly shine defensively in his previous stints at third base, so there is some possible room for flexibility within the Royals’ lineups.  Speculatively, Dozier could see some time in the outfield and Whit Merrifield could get some time at the hot corner, though Merrifield hasn’t played third base since 2017.  If Bobby Witt Jr. is called up at some point in 2021, K.C. could also deploy the star prospect at third base.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Indians Decline Options For Carlos Santana, Domingo Santana, Brad Hand; Pick Up Roberto Perez’s Option

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The Indians have turned down club options for first baseman Carlos Santana, outfielder/designated hitter Domingo Santana and left-handed reliever Brad Hand, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. They have, however, picked up catcher Roberto Perez’s $5.5MM option.

Carlos Santana will get a $500K buyout instead of the $17.5MM salary he could have made. Domingo Santana will earn $250K in lieu of a $5MM salary. Meanwhile, the Indians will pay Hand $1MM over the $10MM figure he was due on his option.

It’s not a surprise the small-budget Indians are moving on from the Santanas, at least at those prices. Carlos Santana has spent all but one season of his career in Cleveland since it began in 2010 and has performed quite well, but he’s now coming off a disappointing year. Santana’s keen eye at the plate did lead to more walks (47) than strikeouts (43), but his average and power declined significantly en route to a .199/.349/.350 line with eight home runs in 255 PA. Even with another effective season, it would have been difficult to imagine the Indians keeping the 34-year-old for such a lofty fee.

The Indians took a chance last free agency on Domingo Santana, who once looked like a breakout hitter with the Brewers. Santana struggled late in 2019 with the Mariners, though, and that carried into this year. He gave the Indians a horrid .157/.298/.286 line with a paltry two HRs in 84 PA.

It’s not at all eyebrow-raising that the Indians are moving on from Hand, as they placed him on outright waivers Thursday. The move came as a shock at the time, though Hand nonetheless cleared waivers instead of saving the Indians from a buyout. He’ll head to free agency as a 30-year-old with an outstanding track record, including three All-Star appearances. Hand’s now fresh off a season in which he led baseball in saves (16, with no blown chances), put up a magnificent 2.05 ERA/1.37 FIP and posted 11.86 K/9 against 1.64 BB/9 in 22 innings.

Perez was one of the game’s top all-around catchers as recently as 2019, but a right shoulder injury limited his appearances and his effectiveness this year. However, despite slashing a woeful .165/.264/.216 with one HR over 110 PA, the Indians are keeping him in the fold. As things stand, they have two light-hitting, defensively gifted backstops in Perez and Austin Hedges, who could combine to make in the $8.5MM neighborhood in 2021.

Three Teams Played Musical Chairs With First Basemen…And Five Teams Came Away Winners

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Last week, I looked at Cole Sulser’s prospects of making an impact in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Sulser found his way to Baltimore via Tampa Bay after being included in a three-way swap of more prominent players. Today, let’s take a look at those players. 

To review: in December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around their first basemen. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with (at least one) major-league first baseman. The Rays got Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, while the Indians snagged a pair of first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. 

There were auxiliary pieces that fit less cleanly into our first basemen carousel. The Rays picked up Sulser from Cleveland, while Tampa also sent $5MM to the Mariners. Seattle paid that money forward, sending a total of $6MM to the Indians. Coming back to Seattle was the Indians’ Round B selection in the draft. The Mariners ended up selecting right-handed pitcher Isaiah Campbell out of Arkansas with the #76 pick in the draft. Those pieces aside, let’s check in on how each team is feeling about their end of this whirlwind deal one season after the fact.

Indians

This move – and much of their offseason last winter – was largely about shuffling money around – but not wholly so. The Indians took back Santana, who had only recently been sent to Seattle after playing one season in Philadelphia. Santana made $20.3MM in 2019, but his contract was offset by sending out Encarnacion, who was owed $21.7MM in 2019 with a $5MM buyout for 2020. The difference in their salaries, plus the money acquired from Seattle netted the Indians close to $7.5MM in 2019, though they took on more long-term money in Santana.

On the field, this deal basically amounts to two exchanges for the Indians: Santana over Encarnacion in terms of big-money players, and Bauers over Diaz for cost-controlled assets. As for the first exchange, the Indians have to count this as a win. After one so-so year with the Phillies, Santana returned to form in a big way with the Indians. All aspects of Santana’s game came together in 2019. He hit .281/.397/.515 on the year with 34 home runs and 110 RBIs. He turned in his typically strong BB-K numbers, posting identical walk and strikeout rates of 15.7% (slight improvements on his career norms in both departments). His isolated power (.234 ISO) was the second-highest mark of his career, while the .397 OBP was a new career-high for a full season. Santana’s season totaled 4.6rWAR/4.4 fWAR, good for 135 wRC+, and he’ll be back in their lineup for 2020.

Bauers, on the other hand, is a work in progress. He brings an added level of versatility, appearing in 31 games at first and 53 games in left, but he’ll need to improve at the plate to put that value to work. Bauers hit just .226/.312/.371 across 423 plate appearances in his first season with the Indians. His walk rate dropped to 10.6% and with a power mark of just .145 ISO. That’s not enough pop from a first baseman/left fielder. He finished with below-average marks of 78 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. Still, all hope is not lost for Bauers. A career-low .290 BABIP might point to some positive regression in the future, and he doesn’t even turn 25-years-old until October.

Mariners

The Mariners’ biggest get here was the draft pick. GM Jerry Dipoto continued his rebuild, and ultimately, the swap of sluggers was an avenue to add another draft pick. After taking on Santana a week prior, the Mariners shed long-term money by swapping in Encarnacion, whom they eventually flipped to the Yankees.

While with the Mariners, Encarnacion was about as good as expected, slashing .241/.356/.531 with 21 home runs in 65 games. With the rebuild in full swing, EE was never expected to spend a full season in Seattle. Given his start to the year, the Mariners’ return for the DH was a little underwhelming, but the market for teams in need of a designated hitter was limited. Still, Trader Jerry added right-hander Juan Then from the Yankees. Fangraphs ranks Then as the Mariners’ #13-ranked prospect after finishing the season in A-ball. Campbell, selected with the acquired draft choice, comes in at #16.

The Yankees and Mariners essentially split the remaining money owed Encarnacion at the time, so the M’s did see some financial benefit as well. It’s often difficult to track the wheeling and dealing done by Dipoto, but we can give it a go here. To do so, we have to go back to the deal that sent Santana from the Phillies to Seattle. Dipoto sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, and James Pazos to Philly for Santana and J.P. Crawford. In sum, he started with Segura, Nicasio, and Pazos, and the Mariners ended up with Crawford, Then, and Campbell, along with some financial saving both in the short-and-long-term.

Rays

It was surprising to see the Rays move Jake Bauers at the time of this deal, but they’re no stranger to dealing from a young core. The Rays picked up Sulser and Diaz for Bauers in this trade, while also sending $5MM to the Mariners. Considering Sulser was eventually lost on waivers to the Orioles (though he did give them 7 scoreless innings in 2019), the move essentially amounts to the Rays paying $5MM to swap in Diaz for Bauers. At the time of the deal, Bauers was seen as an up-and-comer, while Diaz was a little-known 27-year-old utility player with little-to-no boom in his boomstick. As has often been the case of late with Rays’ trades, at a cursory glance, the Rays were trading away controllable youth for a role player.

But where the Rays are concerned, it’s often worth delving a little further. Diaz quickly became known for his above-average exit velocities. And while Diaz was a little older and without the prospect pedigree of Bauers, he came with similar team control, more versatility given his ability to line up at the hot corner, and his biceps have a cult following all their own.

Injuries unfortunately limited Diaz’s production in 2019, but when he was on the field, he was dynamite. While posting a line of .267/.340/.476 across 79 games, Diaz was coming into his own as a hitter with a 116 wRC+. Diaz’s minor league career to this point was a testament to his ability to get on base, limit strikeouts, and make hard contact, but a groundball-heavy approach limited his power.

But it was a different story in Tampa. Diaz produced a career-best .208 ISO to go with a 91.7 mph exit velocity that put him in the top 8% of the league, per Statcast. His hard-hit percentage continues to be well above average, and a small improvement in launch angle and a large jump in barrels led to Diaz smashing 14 home runs in 79 games after hitting just 1 in 88 big league games with the Indians.

Not only that, but Diaz returned from the injured list in time for the playoffs, leading off the wild card game with a solo shot off Sean Manaea. Diaz went deep his second time up as well, at which point the Rays had more than enough to get past the A’s. It was a monster performance from Diaz in the biggest game of the year up to that point. (Things didn’t go quite so well for Diaz in Houston, as he went 0 for 9 with four strikeouts in the ALDS.) The Rays have to feel pretty good about where they stand with Diaz moving forward, as he should continue to be a cheap source of offense for the next couple of seasons.

For that matter, all three teams have to feel pretty good about this deal, as they each accomplished their goal. If Bauers has a better showing in 2020 and the Mariners’ prospects come to fruition, there will ultimately be very little not to like about this three-way deal. Include the Orioles for nabbing Sulser and the Yankees for getting a half a season of Encarnacion, and it could be argued that five teams actually came away winners from this three-way swap of first baseman.

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