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Nationals Outright Joan Adon

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The Nationals announced Wednesday that right-hander Joan Adon passed through waivers unclaimed after he was designated for assignment last week. He’ll remain with the organization and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Rochester. Washington designated Adon to clear roster space for free agent signee Amed Rosario.

The 26-year-old Adon has logged big league time with the Nats in each of the past four seasons. He’s totaled 132 1/3 innings but sports a 6.66 earned run average in that time. He’s fanned 19% of his opponents, issued walks at an 11.3% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.3% rate. Both those strikeout and walk rates are worse than league-average, but Adon’s grounder rate is a few percentage points above par and he averages about 95 mph on his heater.

Adon has been durable in the upper minors, typically working as a starter, but he’s also gotten some bullpen work in recent seasons as his big league results have been lackluster. Given that he sits nearly 95 mph as a starter when he’s facing lineups multiple times, it’s fair to wonder how high that velocity might trend upward if he were to move to short relief stints.

Adon was out of minor league options, so the Nationals would’ve had to either break camp with him on the Opening Day roster or jettison him from the 40-man by way of trade or DFA at some point during spring training. Now that he’s cleared waivers, he’ll head to big league camp this spring as a non-roster invitee. If he doesn’t pitch his way back into the big league plans, he’ll start the year in Rochester and bide his time while waiting for another opportunity.

Washington’s rotation mix is deeper after signing Michael Soroka and re-signing Trevor Williams. That pair will join MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin and DJ Herz — all four of whom delivered some encouraging performances in 2024 (albeit with some late fades as that group surpassed previous career-high workloads). With that group of six starters in the fold and top prospect Cade Cavalli hoping for a healthy 2025 campaign, Adon has been pushed a ways down the depth chart. A full-time look in the ’pen could be interesting, but it’s not yet clear how the Nats will utilize him moving forward.

Daniel Bard To Throw Off Mound In February, Planning To Sign In April

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Veteran right-hander Daniel Bard missed the 2024 season after undergoing surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right elbow. He sat down with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast eight months ago to discuss how the injury impacts his mindset, his daily routine and to give an inside look into the life of an injured pitcher. He also suggested within that his recovery would be about a full year. That timetable still seems largely the same. Bradford reports this morning that Bard is planning to resume throwing off a mound early next month. He’s hopeful of signing with a team in April and pitching in games not long after.

Bard’s surgery repaired only his flexor tendon and not his ulnar collateral ligament, the pitcher himself told Bradford in that interview. He’d been pitching through elbow pain for some time but reached a point where he could no longer complete a bullpen session. An MRI revealed the need for surgical repair.

Now 39 years old, Bard posted elite results as recently as 2022, when he notched a dominant 1.79 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in 60 1/3 innings for the Rockies. His 34 saves that season were a career-high and ranked sixth in all of baseball. He was a heavily speculated trade candidate that summer, given his status as an impending free agent on a non-contending Colorado club, but the Rox inked Bard to a two-year, $19MM extension instead.

Clearly, that deal didn’t pan out. Bard was brilliant in April and May the following season before taking a step back in June/July and cratering in August and September. The righty told Bradford he was pitching through elbow pain for much of that 2023 season.

Since returning from a six-year absence in the major leagues back in 2020, Bard has been inconsistent but effective on the whole. He sports a 3.83 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and a bloated 13.5% walk rate that’s skewed by the 21.1% walk rate he logged in ’23 while pitching through elbow pain and anxiety. Bard attributed his dominant 2022 showing to scrapping his four-seamer and changing the arm slot on his sinker; if he can get back to anything close to that form, he’d be a bargain for anyone who signs him.

That’s far from a given, of course, but the most recently healthy version of Bard we saw was one of the best relievers in the sport. Given that he’s going to wait until he’s close to game-ready to sign, it’s possible Bard will sign a prorated big league deal and then consent to be optioned when April rolls around. Presumably, he’ll host a workout/showcase for interested teams at that point. He’s spent the past four years in the Rockies organization and spoke fondly of his time there and his teammates with the club, which could give the Rox a leg up if they’re interested in a reunion, but a healthy Bard should draw interest from a wide range of teams.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/25

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January 15 marks the official opening of the international signing period. The majority of top talents have reached verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance, they’re allowed to formally put pen to paper to begin their affiliated careers. The signing period technically runs until December 15, but many of the top signees ink their contracts as soon as first eligible.

This year’s international market has been thrown into disarray, to an extent, by the emergence of star NPB right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. While Sasaki is an established professional in every sense of the word over in Japan, his age (23) and the fact that he has fewer than six seasons of pro ball in another country under his belt make him an “amateur” under the purview of Major League Baseball’s international free agency structure.

As such, we’ve seen both the Dodgers and Padres both hold off on finalizing longstanding agreements with other teams and, in some cases, let players with whom they’ve had standing verbal agreements instead pursue other opportunities. The Dodgers, for instance, saw Dominican shortstop Darell Morel instead agree to a $1.8MM bonus with the Pirates. That worked out for Morel, who’d agreed to sign for roughly half that amount with Los Angeles (likely more than a year prior). Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports that Venzuelan outfielder Oscar Patiño also walked away from his Dodgers deal ($400K) to sign for a $570K bonus with the White Sox. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reported yesterday that Dominican outfielder Teilon Serrano, another Dodgers commit, will instead sign with the Twins now. He’ll receive roughly $1MM from Minnesota, per Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.

Those defections will sting for the Dodgers if they’re unable to ultimately sway Sasaki to sign in Los Angeles, though there will be other opportunities to spend those dollars down the road. Unexpected amateur players can pop up well after a signing period has commenced, and Los Angeles would also have the ability to trade some any unused international money. The Dodgers have long been regarded as the Sasaki favorite — so much so that agent Joel Wolfe had to publicly deny speculation regarding a predetermined agreement between the two sides — and the recent run of prospects bolting from their international class does little to quell that perception. The Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists for Sasaki, whose posting window closes on Jan. 23.

Turning back to the rest of the class, Badler has a team-by-team breakdown of the most prominent signings over at Baseball America, as well as scouting reports and (in some cases) projected bonuses for as many as 100 players. Longenhagen runs through his own list of 50 international prospects with their expected team and signing bonus over at FanGraphs, as well as a detailed look at some of intricacies and idiosyncrasies of Sasaki’s unique free agent saga. Romero runs through 35 high-profile international talents and their expected team/signing bonus at his site as well. At MLB.com, Jesse Sanchez and Jesse Borek have their own ranking of the top 50 in the class, with scouting reports on each. Those interested in the finer details of this year’s collection of international amateurs are highly encouraged to check out those resources in full. Badler, Longenhagen, Romero, Sanchez and many others around the baseball world dedicate enormous portions of their time and efforts to covering this topic to the fullest.

Note: This is not a comprehensive list of all international signings, nor is it intended to be. If your favorite team is not listed here, it’s not because they’ve sat out the IFA market. There are a few dozen players who’ll sign $1MM+ bonuses and a few hundred who’ll ink six-figure bonuses. Those interested in a comprehensive rundown of the international class can check out links to the excellent work from Badler, Romero, Sanchez and Longenhagen provided above. We’ll run down some of the top signing bonuses here, focusing on those that check in at $2.5MM or more. These are ordered by reported signing bonus, and this list will be updated multiple times today:

  • Elian Peña, SS, Mets: The Mets paid a reported $5MM bonus to Pena, per Badler, which represents a whopping 80% of their $6.261MM bonus pool. Currently listed at 5’11” and 170 pounds, Pena is a lefty-swinging shortstop who’s expected to move down the defensive spectrum but have more than enough bat to profile at third base or second base if all pans out. Badler and Romero both liken his power potential to that of Rafael Devers, praising his pitch recognition, plate discipline and willingness to draw walks. He turned 17 in October.
  • Andrew Salas, SS/OF Marlins: The younger brother of Twins infield prospect Jose Salas (originally signed by Miami but traded to Minnesota alongside Pablo Lopez) and current Padres top prospect Ethan Salas, Andrew will turn 17 in March. He’s a switch-hitter who’s touted for his patient approach, good swing decisions and balance on both sides of the plate. MLB.com lauds him as a potential plus defender both at shortstop and in center field. Salas was born in Florida but moved to Venezuela, his family’s native country, and is already bilingual as a result. The Marlins are committing a $3.6MM bonus to the youngest of the three Salas brothers, per Romero.
  • Cris Rodriguez, OF, Tigers: Rodriguez receives a $3.2MM bonus from Detroit, per Badler. Already 6’4″ and 200 pounds with his 17th birthday still two weeks away, Rodriguez stands out for his bat speed and raw power. Badler calls him a potential 30-homer slugger who’ll probably settle into a corner but for the time being runs well enough to have a chance in center. MLB.com’s report calls Rodriguez a “near carbon copy” of Eloy Jimenez at this same age, even down to hailing from the same city in the Dominican Republic and possessing a similarly aggressive approach. The Tigers will hope Rodriguez can do a better job of avoiding injuries, but Rodriguez possesses thunderous power — more so than any other player in this class.
  • Josuar de Jesus Gonzalez, SS, Giants: Badler and Romero both note that some scouts have graded De Jesus as the top prospect overall in this year’s class (Sasaki excluded). MLB.com indeed ranks him as the top non-Sasaki talent in the class. Listed at 5’11” and 175 pounds, the 17-year-old switch-hitter draws 70 grades for his speed (on the 20-80 scale) and also plus bat speed and the defensive tools required to convince scouts he can stick at shortstop. He’s landing a $3MM bonus from San Francisco, Badler reports.
  • Diego Tornes, OF, Braves: Tornes won’t turn 17 until July. He’s younger than many of the players in this year’s class but still received a $2.5MM bonus (per Badler) thanks to a projectable 6’4″, 200-pound frame that scouts think is a portent for plus power. He’s a switch-hitter who’s praised for plus bat speed and physicality that are well beyond some of his older peers on this year’s class. MLB.com feels he’ll eventually settle into an outfield corner, where he has an above-average arm and — at least at present — above-average speed.

Krall: New TV Agreement Allows Reds To “Work A Little Bit More” In Free Agent, Trade Markets

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The Reds reached a surprise agreement with Main Street Sports/FanDuel Sports Network (the rebranded entities formerly known as Diamond Sports Group and Bally Sports) yesterday — a one-year cable and streaming rights deal that’ll take care of the team’s broadcasts for the upcoming 2025 season. With Diamond Sports Group in bankruptcy proceedings, the Reds had turned their broadcast rights over to the league (as have several other clubs) in a less-lucrative arrangement. It’s still not clear how much extra revenue Cincinnati will pick up in the wake of this new agreement, but president of baseball operations Nick Krall told the Reds beat yesterday that there will be a positive impact on the team’s payroll, which had been close to maxed out.

“Just getting a little bit more money is great,” Krall stated (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). “We can work a little bit more in both the free agency and the trade market.”

Reds fans will surely welcome the news of additional resources at the front office’s disposal. Krall didn’t make any definitive statements about what’s to come on the horizon, but it’s a change in tone from last week, when after the Gavin Lux trade he noted that the Reds did “not [have] a ton” of flexibility with regard to the payroll.

At the moment, RosterResource projects the Reds for a $106MM payroll — about a $6MM increase over where they finished the 2024 season. That’s generally been considered the top end of ownership’s range; Krall implied following the Lux acquisition that the inclusion of the team’s competitive balance draft pick in the swap was a creative means of fitting Lux’s modest $3.325MM salary onto the books, as it reduced the Reds’ draft budget. That doesn’t speak to a team with future acquisitions still in the pipeline.

Only time will tell the extent of the impact on Cincinnati’s spending ability. COO Doug Healy somewhat vaguely said the deal “enhances our economics slightly.” Krall’s subsequent comments more clearly suggest that the Reds could squeeze another move out of the unexpected uptick in revenue.

It’d be a major surprise if the Reds suddenly felt emboldened to spend on Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso, even as both reportedly warm to the possibility of shorter-term deals in free agency. They’ve recently been linked to reliever Carlos Estevez and were reported to have had interest in Gleyber Torres before he signed with the Tigers, as well. Wittenmyer writes that despite prior interest in Estevez, the two parties hadn’t talked in “weeks” prior to the new television agreement, as the right-hander was simply out of their price range.

Even if it’s not Estevez specifically, that interest suggests a desire to strengthen the relief corps. With regard to how the market has played out this winter, that’s arguably the “best” need to still have on any team’s to-do list. The relief market has moved slowly compared to other corners of free agency. It’s begun to pick up steam recently, but Estevez is just one of several quality bullpen arms still looking for a new home next year. David Robertson, Kenley Jansen and Kirby Yates are among the highest-profile names available, but the open market also includes names like Kyle Finnegan, Paul Sewald, Phil Maton, A.J. Minter and Tommy Kahnle, among others.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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In order to keep with our growing base of subscribers, we'll be offering a second weekly Front Office subscriber chat taking place on Monday afternoons. I'll be hosting these Monday chats, which will come in addition to my weekly free chat on Tuesday afternoons, Mark Polishuk's free weekend chats and Anthony Franco's subscriber-only chat on Friday afternoon. None of those other live Q&A formats are going anywhere.

 

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GM: Giants Have Been Informed They’re Out Of Running For Roki Sasaki

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The Giants are currently introducing future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander at a press conference, but there’s some other headline news coming out of that media session as well. Giants general manager Zack Minasian revealed during his comments that while his team met with Roki Sasaki’s camp, they’ve now been informed that Sasaki will not be signing there (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).

There are no further details on the matter than that. It’s not fully clear whether Sasaki visited Oracle Park in San Francisco or whether the meeting being referenced was conducted in Los Angeles, at the headquarters for Sasaki’s agency, Wasserman. That’s moot at this juncture anyhow, though, as the Giants’ elimination from the process is the latest step in narrowing the field.

Agent Joel Wolfe detailed at last month’s Winter Meetings that the plan for Sasaki’s free agency was for teams to submit initial presentations and pitches prior to the holidays. Sasaki and Wasserman hosted interested teams for meetings at a central location — Wasserman’s L.A. headquarters — and the plan was for the 23-year-old righty to then visit some finalists in their home locales after the holidays.

A full list of teams with which he’s visited isn’t publicly known, though Sasaki did travel to Toronto to meet with the Blue Jays recently. Presumably, with Wasserman being based in Los Angeles, Sasaki has met with the Dodgers and nearby Padres — the two long-presumed favorites in the bidding. Other clubs that have been prominently linked to Sasaki include the Rangers, Yankees, Mets, Cubs and Mariners.

With Sasaki not coming to San Francisco and Verlander’s deal now official, the Giants’ rotation appears all but set. Verlander will join Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks in rounding out a quintet that’s quite talented but has a handful of question marks (Verlander’s age, Ray’s health, Hicks’ workload). In-house depth options with at least some big league experience include Tristan Beck, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black and Landen Roupp.

What Could Pete Alonso’s Market Look Like On A Short-Term Deal?

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As the offseason wears on, talk about a potential short-term deal for Pete Alonso only intensifies. The slugger is one of the sport's most prolific home run hitters, second only to Aaron Judge dating back to Alonso's 2019 MLB debut. He's a consistent 30- or 40-homer presence who's anchored the middle of the Mets' lineup from the moment he set foot in the majors. The "Polar Bear" is a former Home Run Derby winner who's leaned into the spectacle of that summer showcase, participating in the event for five straight years and taking home the trophy on two different occasions.

Alonso is a marketable, star-caliber player who'd improve any lineup -- even on the heels of a downturn in performance (relative to his lofty standards). After slashing .261/.349/.535 through his first four MLB campaigns, Alonso has dipped to "only" .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons. He's still corked 80 homers in that time and been 21% better than average at the plate by measure of wRC+, but it's a notable departure from Alonso's first four seasons, when wRC+ pegged him 37% better than the average hitter.

For a player who just turned 30 and doesn't bring much to the table with the glove or on the bases, any dip in production is worrying. Alonso's strikeout rate has also crept back up. After falling from 26.4% to 25.5% to 19.9% and 18.7% from 2019-22, he's punched out at a 22.9% rate in 2023 and a 24.7% rate in 2024. It's not necessarily an alarming trend yet for a player with Alonso's prodigious power -- especially since he's also boosted his walk rate in consecutive seasons, reaching 10.1% in '24 -- but there's still some reason to be concerned.

Alonso thrived at making contact on pitches off the plate in 2021-22 when his strikeout rate was at its lowest, doing so at a 59.4% clip that was well north of the 56.5% league average across those two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Alonso's contact rate outside the strike zone has dipped to 54.6%. He's offset that by cutting down on the rate at which he chases -- hence the improved walk rate -- but when he does chase, he's swinging through the pitch more often.

Those red flags (of varying severity), Alonso's age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer all surely combine to tamp down some interest in him. He never seemed that likely to reach the heights that Freddie Freeman did in free agency (six years, $162MM), but there was some thought that a five-year deal (or six at a lower rate) could be there.

That said, the short-term developments were also foreseeable. We've kicked ourselves for moving off the prediction of a three-year, $90MM deal with multiple opt-outs for Alonso, which for awhile was our unofficial prediction for MLBTR's annual Top 50 free agent list. The market hasn't rewarded this skill set in recent years, and it felt very possible that Alonso would go out looking for Freeman money -- if not more -- and find himself in a situation similar to that of last offseason's quartet of fellow Boras clients who lingered on the market into spring training. We ultimately opted to bet that the market -- or at least just the Mets -- would show out for Alonso and predicted five years and $125MM. Maybe he'll still get there, but the likelihood seems much lower now.

ESPN's Jeff Passan, The Athletic's Will Sammon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio and a host of others have all reported on the possibility of Alonso taking a short-term deal in recent weeks. It's hard to imagine such an arrangement would happen anywhere other than Queens. But, if the Mets simply don't want to bring Alonso back on a premium annual salary -- they're nearly into the third luxury penalty tier; Alonso would catapult them to the fourth and highest tier -- others could certainly enter the mix.

Let's run through some potential landing spots under the assumption that Alonso has indeed softened his stance on a short-term arrangement...

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Pirates Sign Burch Smith, Bryce Johnson To Minor League Deals

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The Pirates announced a slate of 13 non-roster invitees to spring training Monday, revealing within that they’ve signed right-hander Burch Smith and outfielder Bryce Johnson to minor league contracts.

Smith, 35 in April, split the 2024 season between the Marlins and Orioles, pitching to a combined 4.95 ERA with a below-average 19.1% strikeout rate but a superlative 5% walk rate. The Truth Sports client averaged 94.9 mph on his heater and kept the ball on the ground at a 43.9% clip that’s nearly two percentage points north of the league average of 42.2%.

Originally a 14th-round pick by the Padres back in 2011, Smith has pitched for seven big league teams across parts of six major league seasons. He’s pitched all over the globe, including a brief appearance with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization in 2023, a solid run with the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in 2022, and some work with los Gigantes de Cibao in the Dominican Winter League as well.

In 247 1/3 big league innings, Smith has a 5.79 ERA, although it’s worth pointing out that the 2024 version of Smith looks far different from the version we saw in the majors between 2013-21. He’s throwing harder than he ever did early in his career, when he averaged 93.1 mph on his fastball from 2013-21. He’s also scrapped his changeup and sinker — both offerings he once leaned upon heavily — in favor of a four-pitch mix including a four-seamer, cutter, curveball and sweeper (used in that order of frequency). Smith’s ground-ball rate climbed by more than eight percentage points with that new-look arsenal, while his 5% walk rate was less than half the 10.1% rate he showed over his first five MLB campaigns.

Smith will give the Bucs some veteran bullpen depth and compete for one of the final spots in Pittsburgh’s relief corps this spring. At least five spots feel locked into place with now with David Bednar, Colin Holderman, Dennis Santana, Carmen Mlodzinski and free-agent signee Caleb Ferguson all staking their claim.

Righty Kyle Nicolas was solid for 54 1/3 innings last year (3.95 ERA) but walked too many hitters (12.8%) and has minor league options remaining. DFA pickups Joey Wentz (claimed last September) and Peter Strzelecki (acquired for cash this offseason) are both out of minor league options and will need to make the Opening Day club or else be removed from the 40-man roster themselves. Others in the running could include Elvis Alvarado (on the 40-man roster) and non-roster invitees Yohan Ramirez, Tanner Rainey, Yerry Rodriguez, Isaac Mattson and Eddy Yean.

Turning to the 29-year-old Johnson, he’ll give Pittsburgh some depth at a corner outfield spot where they’ve been seeking help throughout the offseason. He’s played in each of the past three big league seasons, spending time with both the Giants and Padres, but carries a tepid .177/.248/.226 slash over a small sample of 140 major league plate appearances.

Those numbers clearly don’t impress, but Johnson also had his best Triple-A season in 2024, hitting .288/.407/.431 with the Padres’ El Paso affiliate. He’s played in parts of four Triple-A campaigns and touts a sharp .286/.381/.429 slash. Johnson is lacking in power — he hasn’t reached a double-digit homer total since hitting ten round-trippers across three minor league levels in 2019 — but he’s been a fleet-footed on-base machine in the minors. The former sixth-rounder (Giants, 2017) has walked in 10.9% of his minor league plate appearances, including an 11.6% clip in his four Triple-A seasons. He’s 181-for-226 in minor league stolen base attempts (80%) and has a trio of 30-steal seasons under his belt. Last year, he went 20-for-23 in just 74 games at the Triple-A level.

As things stand, the Pittsburgh outfield will have Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz locked into two of the three spots (with Cruz set in center field, in particular). Joshua Palacios, Jack Suwinski, Ji Hwan Bae and Billy Cook are all on the 40-man roster and hoping for outfield at-bats. The Pirates have also been looking outside the organization, though, with recent reports indicating interest in Alex Verdugo and Randal Grichuk.

Roki Sasaki Met With Blue Jays In Toronto

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Within the next ten days, we’ll know where right-hander Roki Sasaki will be playing for the foreseeable future. The Japanese right-hander is one of the most talked-about international free agents in recent memory, due to a combination of age (23), pedigree (2.10 ERA in four NPB seasons) and his decision to potentially leave hundreds of millions on the table by pursuing an MLB move right now rather than in two years, when he’d be exempt from MLB’s bonus pool system for international “amateurs.” There’s been plenty of talk about the Dodgers and Padres as favorites, but Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic report that Sasaki recently traveled to Toronto to meet with the Blue Jays in person.

Back at last month’s Winter Meetings, agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman laid out a timeline in which Sasaki would receive presentations from all interested teams and host interested parties at a central location prior to the holidays. The right-hander then planned to narrow the field and, post-holidays, meet with a smaller group of clubs in their home cities. That the Jays hosted Sasaki in Toronto ostensibly indicates that they’re still in the running in what’s effectively the second round of consideration.

That shouldn’t be construed with Toronto being considered any sort of favorite, however. Pinning down any kind of favorite at this stage remains difficult because so much hinges on the preferences of Sasaki himself. Baseball America’s Ben Badler just this morning ranked the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and Rangers — in that order — as the likeliest to sign Sasaki.

The Dodgers and Padres have been the most heavily speculated landing spots — so much so in the case of the former that Wolfe felt obligated to publicly quash rumors of a pre-meditated deal between the two parties. Los Angeles and San Diego are both still believed to be in the running for Sasaki, who’s also been linked to the Mets, Rangers, Cubs, Mariners and Giants in recent weeks. It’s not yet clear which of those teams have hosted Sasaki for an in-person meeting at their own sites just yet.

Ultimately, the decision will boil down to where Sasaki feels most comfortable and which team he feels gives him the best long-term opportunity to develop as a pitcher. Wolfe has stated that market size isn’t a consideration. He said at last month’s Winter Meetings that he’d advise Sasaki against simply signing for the largest bonus right now, as the difference between theoretical bonus offers would be “negligible” compared to the “long-term arc of [Sasaki’s] career,” which is where he’ll truly earn his money.

Teams will still very likely to try to swing some deals to add space to their international bonus pools as they try to do everything they can to make themselves most enticing, but at least based on Wolfe’s prior comments — and based on how much Sasaki is leaving on the table to come to North American ball right now — it’s fair to presume that Sasaki won’t simply be going to the highest possible bidder.

Trade activity regarding bonus pool space is just one manner in which the international amateur market — which opens on Wednesday — is being thrown into chaos. Will Sammon, Dennis Lin and McCullough report at The Athletic that the Padres have told some international prospects with whom they’d previously reached handshake deals that they’re free to again talk to other clubs. Both the Padres and the Dodgers have also asked some within their expected group of signees if they’d wait to sign until next year’s period, per the report. The Dodgers already lost one high-profile prospect from their class to the Pirates.

It should be noted that while Sasaki cannot formally sign a contract prior to Jan. 15 and must sign by Jan. 23 (the final date in his 45-day posting window), he can agree to terms on a deal prior to either of those dates. It’s not clear of the right-hander is still traveling to meet with prospective clubs in their home locales, but in theory he could make his decision at any point now and simply sign on the dotted line when the international period opens. In that sense, it’s similar to any other free agent; it’s commonplace for an agreement to be reached, leak out to the public and only be formally announced by the team a few days later after the physical has been completed.

As a reminder of how this will all work, Major League Baseball’s international amateur bonus system allows clubs to sign players from Latin America, Asia, Europe, etc. beginning at age 16. Clubs scout players — particularly those in Latin America — for years ahead of time, often agreeing to handshake deals more than a year (sometimes two or three years) in advance. The league hard-caps each team’s bonus pool. Clubs are permitted to trade for up to 60% of the value of their initial bonus pools.

This year’s bonus pools range from $5.146MM (Dodgers, Giants) to $7.555MM (Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Twins, Brewers, A’s, Mariners, Rays). In theory, one of those eight clubs with the maximum pool size could trade to balloon their pool to $12.088MM. There’s no indication any of those clubs will do so, however.

International “amateur” players can only sign a minor league deal for a bonus that fits within a team’s allotted pool space (plus any additional space acquired via trade). Because of the stringent criteria to be classified a “professional” rather than an “amateur,” Sasaki will fall into the amateur bucket. MLB stipulates that a player must be at least 25 years of age and have six or more seasons of experience in a prominent foreign professional league (e.g. Nippon Professional Baseball, Korea Baseball Organization, Mexican League, Chinese Professional Baseball League, Cuban National Series, etc.). Had Sasaki waited two years, he might’ve been in line for the type of contract received by Yoshinobu Yamamoto (13 years, $325MM). Instead, he’ll sign a minor league deal with a bonus valued south (likely well south) of that $12.088MM maximum.

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