Nationals Sign Miles Mikolas
The Nationals added an innings eater on Wednesday, announcing a one-year contract with veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas. It’s reportedly a $2.25MM base salary for the Octagon client, who can earn another $750K in bonuses. Mikolas would collect $100K apiece for every 10 innings between 100 and 120, $200K at 130 frames, and $250K at 140 innings. DJ Herz has been placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Herz underwent Tommy John surgery last April.
Mikolas, 37, became a workhorse in his mid-thirties. He began his career with the Padres and Rangers before spending three years with the Yomiuri Giants in NPB. During the 2017-18 offseason, he signed with the Cardinals and made 32 starts in each of the next two years, but forearm issues kept him off the field for most of 2020-21. Since 2022, he has started at least 31 games each year, including a league-leading 35 in 2023. Only one pitcher, Logan Webb, has made more starts than Mikolas over the last four seasons, and only four have thrown more innings.
Unfortunately for Mikolas, the quality of those innings has declined as he has aged and his stuff has diminished. In 2025, he pitched to a 4.84 ERA and a 4.83 SIERA. While the righty has never been one to rack up strikeouts, his strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped to 14.9% and 2.70, respectively, the lowest either has ever been since before he left for Japan. The only pitcher to throw at least 150 innings last year with a worse strikeout rate was Mikolas’s new Nationals teammate Mitchell Parker. Meanwhile, no pitcher (min. 150 IP) gave up barrels at a higher rate than Mikolas; according to Statcast’s xERA, he ranked among the bottom 9% of pitchers in MLB. Pitch models that evaluate raw stuff, such as Stuff+ and PitchingBot, also suggest that the veteran took a big step back in 2025. Overwhelming batters with nasty stuff was never how he succeeded, but his stuff metrics went from poor to some of the worst in the game this past season.
As negative as all that sounds, it’s important to keep in mind that Mikolas still took the mound 31 times in 2025, tossing 156 1/3 frames. He made eight quality starts and finished five innings in all but seven of his outings. The Nationals badly needed an innings eater for a woefully inexperienced rotation set to include names like Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, Foster Griffin, Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, and Parker. Of those arms, only Irvin and Parker have pitched so much as one qualifying major league season, while Gray is the only other to have a 30-start campaign under his belt. It’s a group replete with injury concerns, consistency issues, and limited track records. The dependable Mikolas will boost the floor of what projects to be one of the worst starting rotations in the league.
TalkNats first reported the Nationals and Mikolas had conversations. Jake Mintz of Yahoo Sports! was first on the agreement. Mark Zuckerman of Nats Journal confirmed it was a major league deal, while Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $2.75MM base plus incentives. The Associated Press reported the incentive specifics. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Most clubs have a slightly earlier report date this year due to the World Baseball Classic. Last year, the Cubs and Dodgers had earlier report dates because they were had an earlier Opening Day than everyone else as part of the Tokyo Series. Gavin Stone was the first player to land on the 60-day IL in 2025, landing there on February 11th. According to MLB.com, every club has a report date from February 10th to 13th this year.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until late May or beyond. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, and more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment. If a team wants to pass a player through waivers, perhaps they will try to do so in the near future before the extra roster flexibility opens up.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time or who have uncertain recovery timelines from 2025 injuries.
Angels: Anthony Rendon, Ben Joyce
Rendon’s situation is unique. He underwent hip surgery a year ago and missed the entire 2025 season. He is still on the roster and signed through 2026. He and the club have agreed to a salary-deferment plan and he is not expected to be in spring training with the club. His recovery timeline is unclear, but general manager Perry Minasian said earlier this month that Rendon would be “rehabbing at home,” per Alden González of ESPN. If they were going to release him, they likely would have done so by now, so he seems destined for the injured list.
Joyce underwent shoulder surgery in May and missed the remainder of the 2025 season. His current status is unclear. In August, he told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he didn’t know if he would be ready for spring training. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the Halos don’t expect him back before the end of May.
Astros: Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery in 2025. Wesneski was first, with his surgery taking place on May 23rd. Blanco followed shortly thereafter in early June. They will likely be targeting returns in the second half. Walter’s procedure was in September, meaning he will likely miss the entire season. All three should be on the 60-day IL as soon as Houston needs roster spots for other transactions.
Athletics: Zack Gelof
Gelof underwent surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder in September, with the expectation of him potentially being healthy for spring training. At the end of December, general manager David Forst told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com that Gelof would be “a little bit behind” in spring. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the A’s think he’ll be out through late May.
Blue Jays: Jake Bloss
Bloss underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in May. He was on optional assignment at the time and stayed in the minors for the rest of the season. Going into 2026, the Jays could keep him in the minors but they could also call him up and place him on the major league IL. Doing so would open up a roster spot but would also mean giving Bloss big league pay and service time.
Braves: Ha-Seong Kim, AJ Smith-Shawver, Danny Young, Joe Jiménez
Kim recently fell on some ice and injured his hand. He underwent surgery last week, and the expected recovery time is four to five months. The shorter end of that window only goes to mid-May, so perhaps Atlanta will hold off on making a decision until they watch his recovery, especially since they have other guys with clearer injury timelines.
Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June, so he shouldn’t be back until the second half and is therefore a lock for the 60-day IL once Atlanta needs a spot. Young underwent the same procedure in May, so he should also be bound for the IL.
Jimenez is more of a question mark. He missed the 2025 season due to left knee surgery. He required a “cleanup” procedure on that knee towards the end of the season. His timeline isn’t currently clear.
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: Justin Steele
Steele will probably be a bit of a borderline case. He underwent UCL surgery in April but it wasn’t a full Tommy John surgery. The Cubs described it as a “revision repair”. Steele had undergone Tommy John in 2017 as a minor leaguer.
Since Steele’s more recent procedure was a bit less serious than a full Tommy John, the club gave an estimated return timeline of about one year, putting him in line to potentially return fairly early in 2026. Given his importance to the Cubs, they would only put him on the 60-day IL if his timeline changes and he’s certain to be out through late May.
Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., A.J. Puk, Justin Martínez, Blake Walston, Tyler Locklear
The Snakes were hit hard by the injury bug in 2025. Burnes, Walston and Martínez all underwent Tommy John surgery. Burnes and Martínez had their procedures in June, so they should be targeting second-half returns and be easy calls for the 60-day IL. Walston would be a bit more borderline because his surgery was around Opening Day in late March last year. Puk had the slightly less significant internal brace procedure in June, so he could also be a borderline case.
Turning to the position players, Gurriel tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in September. He required surgery which came with a return timeline of nine to ten months, so he should be out until around the All-Star break.
Locklear should be back sooner. He underwent surgery in October to address a ligament tear in his elbow and a labrum injury in his shoulder. The hope at the time of that procedure was that he would be game ready to go on a rehab assignment around Opening Day and would therefore miss only about the first month. He would therefore only hit the 60-day IL if he doesn’t meet that timeline for some reason.
Dodgers: Brock Stewart
Stewart underwent shoulder debridement surgery in September. His timeline for 2026 isn’t especially clear. He will likely start the season on the IL but it’s unclear if he’ll be out long enough to warrant landing on the 60-day version.
Giants: Randy Rodríguez, Jason Foley
Rodríguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL and might even miss the entire 2026 campaign. Foley’s status is a bit more murky. He underwent shoulder surgery in May while with the Tigers. Detroit non-tendered him at season’s end, which allowed the Giants to sign him. He is expected back at some point mid-season. The Giants may want to get more clarity on his progress during camp before deciding on a move to the IL.
Guardians: Andrew Walters, David Fry
Neither of these guys is a lock for the 60-day IL. Walters had surgery to repair his right lat tendon in June with a recovery estimate of eight to ten months. Fry underwent surgery in October due to a deviated septum and a fractured nose suffered when a Tarik Skubal pitch hit him in the face. His timeline is unclear. It’s possible one or both could be healthy by Opening Day, so relevant updates may be forthcoming when camps open.
Mariners: Logan Evans
Evans required UCL surgery just last week and will miss the entire 2026 season. He was on optional assignment at the end of 2025, so the Mariners could keep him in the minors. Calling him up and putting him on the big league 60-day IL would open up a 40-man spot but would also involve Evans receiving big league pay and service time for the year.
Marlins: Ronny Henriquez
Henriquez underwent internal brace surgery in December and will miss the entire 2026 season, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL.
Mets: Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and are likely to miss the entire 2026 season, making them locks for the 60-day IL. Núñez went under the knife in July, followed by Megill in September and Garrett in October.
Nationals: Trevor Williams, DJ Herz
Williams underwent internal brace surgery in July. That’s a slightly less serious variation of Tommy John but still usually requires about a year of recovery. Herz underwent a full Tommy John procedure in April. Since that surgery usually requires 14 months or longer to come back, both pitchers are likely out until around the All-Star break and therefore bound for the 60-day IL once the Nats need some roster spots.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent shoulder surgery in August, and the club announced his recovery timeline as 12 months. He’s a lock for the 60-day IL and may miss the entire season if his recovery doesn’t go smoothly.
Padres: Yu Darvish, Jhony Brito, Jason Adam
Darvish underwent UCL surgery in November and will miss the entire 2026 season. Instead of going on the IL, he may just retire, but it seems there are some contractual complications to be ironed out since he is signed through 2028.
Brito and Adam could be borderline cases. Brito underwent internal brace surgery in May of last year. Some pitchers can return from that procedure in about a year. Adam ruptured a tendon in his left quad in early September. In November, he seemed to acknowledge that he wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. As of now, a trip to the 60-day IL seems unlikely unless he suffers a setback.
Pirates: Jared Jones
Jones required UCL surgery on May 21st of last year. The Bucs announced an expected return timeline of 10 to 12 months. The shorter end of that window would allow Jones to return fairly early in 2026. If it looks like he’ll be on the longer end of that time frame, he could wind up on the 60-day IL.
Phillies: Zack Wheeler
Wheeler underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in September, with a timeline of six to eight months. As of now, it seems unlikely Wheeler would require a trip to the 60-day IL, but it depends on how his ramp-up goes. He’s also approaching his 36th birthday, and the Phils could slow-play his recovery.
Rangers: Cody Bradford
Bradford required internal brace surgery in late June of last year. He recently said he’s targeting a return in May. That’s a pretty aggressive timeline, but perhaps the Rangers will delay moving him to the 60-day IL until that plan is strictly ruled out.
Rays: Manuel Rodríguez
Rodriguez underwent flexor tendon surgery in July of last year and is targeting a return in June of this year, so he should be a lock for the 60-day IL.
Reds: Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar
Both of these pitchers required Tommy John surgeries late in 2024, Williamson in September and Aguiar in October. They each missed the entire 2025 season. Presumably, they are recovered by now and could be healthy going into 2026, but there haven’t been any recent public updates.
Red Sox: Tanner Houck, Triston Casas
Houck is the most clear-cut case for Boston. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2025 and will miss most or perhaps all of the 2026 season. Casas is more borderline. He’s still recovering from a ruptured left patellar tendon suffered in May of last year. It doesn’t seem like he will be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline apart from that is murky.
Rockies: Jeff Criswell, Kris Bryant
Criswell required Tommy John surgery in early March of last year. With the normal 14-month recovery timeline, he could be back in May. Anything slightly longer than that would make him a candidate for the 60-day IL. Bryant’s timeline is very difficult to discern. He has hardly played in recent years due to various injuries and is now dealing with chronic symptoms related to lumbar degenerative disc disease. Updates will likely be provided once camp opens.
Royals: Alec Marsh
Marsh missed 2025 due to shoulder problems and is slated to miss 2026 as well after undergoing labrum surgery in November.
Tigers: Jackson Jobe
Jobe required Tommy John surgery in June of last year. He will miss most or perhaps even all of the 2026 season.
Twins: None.
White Sox: Ky Bush, Drew Thorpe, Prelander Berroa
These three hurlers all required Tommy John surgery about a year ago, Bush in February, followed by Berroa and Thorpe in March. Given the normal 14-month recovery period, any of them could return early in 2026, but they could also end up on the 60-day IL if the timeline pushes slightly beyond that.
Yankees: Clarke Schmidt, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Anthony Volpe
Schmidt is the only lock of this group. He required UCL surgery in July of last year and should miss the first half of the 2026 season. Cole is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in March of last year. His target is expected to be late May/early June, so he has a decent chance to hit the 60-day. However, given his importance to the club, the Yankees probably won’t put him there until it’s certain he won’t be back by the middle of May.
Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He’s expected to be back with the big league club in late April or early May, so he would only hit the 60-day IL if his timeline is pushed. Volpe required shoulder surgery in October. He’s not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline beyond that doesn’t seem concrete.
Photo courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images
Nationals Outright Trey Lipscomb
The Nationals announced Thursday that infielder Trey Lipscomb went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Rochester. Washington also reinstated catcher Drew Millas, lefty DJ Herz and righties Trevor Williams and Josiah Gray from the 60-day injured list. The Nats currently have five openings on their 40-man roster.
Lipscomb, 25, was the team’s third-round pick in 2022. He’s seen limited MLB time in each of the past two seasons, struggling to a .206/.272/.237 batting line in 215 turns at the plate. The University of Tennessee product posted roughly average offensive numbers across multiple minor league levels in 2023, but he’s been below-average in Triple-A in each of the past two seasons, logging a combined .261/.320/.392 batting line.
The majority of Lipscomb’s time on the field has been spent at third base, but he’s seen some time at all three other infield spots and in left field. Scouting reports pegged him as a roughly average defender at the hot corner, and he’s indeed posted decent grades there in limited big league work. He lacks the service time or prior outright to reject this assignment to the minors, so he’ll stick in the organization and hope to hit his way back to the majors in 2026.
Millas suffered a broken finger that required surgery late in the season. He should be healthy next spring. Herz and Gray both had UCL surgery in 2024 and figure to be ready next spring as well. Williams underwent an internal brace procedure on his own UCL back in July and will miss most, if not all of the upcoming 2026 season as a result.
DJ Herz To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Left-hander DJ Herz has decided to undergo Tommy John surgery, according to a report from TalkNats. Herz was recommended for Tommy John surgery in late March but the report suggests he sought second and third opinions before ultimately deciding to go under the knife. The procedure is likely to keep Herz out of commission through at least the first half of the 2026 campaign, though no specific timetable for his return is likely to be announced until after his surgery.
Herz, 24, was an eighth-round pick by the Cubs back in 2019. While in Chicago’s organization, Herz flashed huge strikeout stuff and fantastic results in the lower minors, including a 40.4% strikeout rate between Single-A and High-A back in 2021. It was always held back by lackluster control and paired with poor results at higher levels of the minors, however, such as when he posted a 20.9% walk rate and an 8.24 ERA in nine starts in his first taste of the Double-A level back in 2022. The lefty’s second stint with Double-A Tennessee went better, though his results still didn’t jump off the page: A 3.97 ERA in 14 starts, with a 14.1% walk rate.
Despite those potential red flags, the Nationals saw enough in Herz to trade for him as part of the package for Jeimer Candelario at the 2023 trade deadline. The southpaw made his big league debut last year and looked quite good in doing so. Across 19 starts in the majors, Herz pitched to a roughly average 4.16 ERA (97 ERA+), but struck out an excellent 27.7% of batters faced while walking a much more palatable 9.4% of opponents. His 8.0% barrel rate allowed was somewhat elevated, leading to an elevated home run rate, but even with that flaw Herz’s peripherals looked excellent. His 3.71 FIP was fourth among rookies with at least 80 innings of work last year, his 3.77 SIERA was sixth, and his 3.26 xERA was second to only Paul Skenes.
It was quite the impressive debut for the young southpaw, though one flaw was Herz’s inability to pitch deep into games. Just four of his 19 starts saw him throw 90 pitches or more, and he failed to complete five innings in eight of his starts. Herz’s overall results in his rookie season were more than enough to put him in the conversation for a regular rotation job with the big league club this year, but any plans for him to join the rotation were scuttled when he struggled during Spring Training with a 6.52 ERA, an 8.2% walk rate, and an 18.4% strikeout rate. Those numbers came in a sample of just 9 2/3 innings, but the results were ugly enough that the Nationals made what seemed like an easy decision to option Herz to the minors.
That option was quickly rescinded in favor of placing him on the injured list, however, suggesting that he had sustained an injury during big league camp. That injury proved to be a tear in his UCL, and Herz will now go under the knife and miss all of 2025, plus at least some of the 2026 season. Fortunately for the Nationals, the club has plenty of other young arms to rely on while Herz is out, including fellow lefties MacKenzie Gore and Mitchell Parker. One other name to watch this year is righty Cade Cavalli, who has been out of commission in recent years due to his own Tommy John surgery rehab but figures to be ready to pitch in the majors at some point this year for the first time since 2022.
Nationals Place Four Players On Injured List
The Nationals announced a series of roster moves to set up their Opening Day roster, including four injured-list placements retroactive to March 24. Right-handers Derek Law (forearm inflammation) and Zach Brzykcy (right quad strain) are both headed to the 15-day IL, infielder Andres Chaparro (oblique strain) is going to the 10-day IL, and right-hander Cade Cavalli was placed on the 15-day IL as he enters the final stages of his recovery from Tommy John surgery.
DJ Herz was moved from the 15-day to the 60-day IL as he could be facing a Tommy John procedure of his own in the wake of a UCL tear. Herz’s transfer opens up a 40-man roster spot the Nats to select the contract of right-hander Brad Lord, in a move that was reported earlier today. Finally, D.C. also optioned first/baseman outfielder Juan Yepez and righty Jackson Rutledge to Triple-A, and catcher Andrew Knizner was reassigned to Triple-A.
As Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post wrote last weekend, Law’s injury dates back to last season, when the reliever missed just under three weeks in late August and early September due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. Though Law was able to return in relatively short order, the discomfort lingered through the winter and into Spring Training, and Law pitched in only one game during the Nationals’ Grapefruit League schedule. The team had already planned to limit Law’s spring workload in the wake of his 90-inning campaign last season, but the forearm issue kept him off the mound almost entirely.
Manager Davey Martinez said Law’s MRI came back clean and the injury isn’t thought to be too serious, with Law saying he believes he’ll be back when first eligible for activation on April 8. Law was one of the game’s most valuable workhorses last season, tossing 90 innings of 2.60 ball over 75 appearances for the Nationals.
Brzykcy also pitched just once this spring, as his quad strain has kept him out of game action for over a month. The righty has started throwing bullpens again, so he is at least partway through the ramp-up process even if it seems like Brzykcy could miss more than the 15-day minimum given how little he pitched in the spring.
Brzykcy was an undrafted free agent from the 2020 class (the year the draft was shortened to five rounds due to the pandemic) who signed with the Nats that summer. He made his MLB debut last season, and was hit hard to the tune of a 14.29 ERA over the small sample size of 5 2/3 innings and six appearances. Brzykcy didn’t pitch in 2023 due to a Tommy John surgery, but his overall impressive minor league numbers made him a candidate to win a job in the Nationals’ bullpen this winter before his quad strain ended his bid.
Chaparro is another player who made his big-league debut in 2024, and he hit .215/.280/.413 with four home runs in his first 132 plate appearances in the Show. While the presence of the newly-acquired Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell may have hurt Chaparro’s chances of winning a bench job as a backup first baseman and outfielder, he was posting big numbers in camp before hurting his oblique during a batting practice session. The uncertain nature of oblique injuries leaves Chaparro’s recovery timeline somewhat up in the air, but a best-case scenario would probably see him activated by mid-April.
Without Chaparro, Yepez, or Knizner, Washington’s bench now consists of Riley Adams in the backup catcher role, veteran Amed Rosario, Jose Tena as the primary backup infielder, and Alex Call as the fourth outfielder. Between Law’s injury and the Nationals’ decision to option Rutledge, the Nationals went with Lord and rookie Orlando Ribalta for the last two bullpen spots.
Note: The initial version of this post erroneously stated that Cavalli was placed on the 60-day injured list. MLBTR apologizes for the error.
Nationals’ DJ Herz Recommended For Tommy John Surgery
March 26: TalkNats reports that Herz has been diagnosed with a UCL tear and recommended for Tommy John surgery, but the southpaw will seek a second opinion before making a decision regarding the procedure.
March 25: The Nationals announced this morning that left-hander DJ Herz has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow. Herz had been optioned to Triple-A last Friday, but that option has been rescinded in favor of a major league IL placement, presumably after testing revealed an injury sustained in big league camp.
While the team hasn’t announced a formal timetable or treatment plan, it’s an ominous injury. The sprain, by definition, indicates some stretching/tearing of the ligament. The majority of UCL sprains result in Tommy John surgery or an internal brace procedure, either of which would wipe out Herz’s entire season. Andrew Golden of the Washington Post reports that Herz has experienced a dead arm throughout camp and saw his velocity drop this spring, which only further adds to the level of concern.
Herz, 24, came to the Nationals in the trade sending Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs back in 2023. He made his big league debut last summer and quickly showed that he has a place in the team’s long-term plans. After logging a 3.89 ERA in 10 Triple-A starts, Herz started 19 games and tallied 88 2/3 MLB frames, working to a solid 4.16 earned run average. The 2019 eighth-rounder fanned an impressive 27.7% of his opponents and also radically improved his command in the majors; Herz has walked more than 15% of his opponents throughout his minor league tenure, including a ghastly 19% in Triple-A last year, but he cut that to a 9.4% rate in the majors. That’s only one percentage point north of league-average and is plenty passable for someone who can miss bats at Herz’s levels.
Even without any knowledge of the dead arm, a cursory glance at Herz’s spring stats would’ve suggested something was amiss. After that strong output between Triple-A and the majors last year, he’s been rocked for nine runs (seven earned) on 10 hits and nine walks in Grapefruit League play. He’s fanned only four of the 49 batters he’s faced and yielded a pair of home runs.
Having been optioned to Triple-A Rochester already, Herz wasn’t in the Nationals’ immediate rotation plan. Now, the question is whether he’ll factor into their plan anytime before the 2026 season. With Herz sidelined for the short term at the very least, Washington’s rotation will feature MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and offseason signees Michael Soroka and Trevor Williams (the latter of whom re-signed with the Nats on a two-year deal after also spending the 2023-24 seasons there). The Nats optioned another free-agent addition, former NPB lefty Shinnosuke Ogasawara, to Rochester to begin his career in North American ball. They also have righty Josiah Gray and former top prospect Cade Cavalli both on the comeback trail after undergoing Tommy John surgery to address their own UCL injuries.
Nationals Option Shinnosuke Ogasawara, DJ Herz
The Nationals announced on Friday that they’ve optioned left-handers Shinnosuke Ogasawara and DJ Herz to Triple-A Rochester. Infielder Nasim Nunez and catcher Drew Millas were also sent down. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, this essentially finalizes Mitchell Parker as the season-opening fifth starter.
Manager Dave Martinez said early in camp that MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams, Michael Soroka and Jake Irvin had rotation spots secure. The final job was up for grabs among Parker, Herz and Ogasawara. The former seemed to be the favorite going into camp, as he’d pitched to a 4.29 ERA in 29 starts as a rookie. Herz and Ogasawara probably had to pitch very well this spring to jump him on the depth chart.
That didn’t happen. Parker had the steadiest Spring Training performance. He allowed five runs with eight strikeouts and four walks across 12 1/3 innings. While that’s not exactly a dominant showing, Herz and Ogasawara both struggled. Herz gave up nine runs in 9 2/3 frames. He issued nine walks and only managed four strikeouts. Ogasawara was tagged for 19 runs (15 earned) over 12 innings. The Japanese southpaw recorded 10 strikeouts and walked eight.
Ogasawara signed a two-year, $3.5MM free agent deal over the winter. Unlike many NPB/KBO signees, he did not get a contractual clause that prohibits the team from sending him to the minors. He’ll begin his U.S. career in Triple-A after posting a 3.12 ERA with a modest 13.6% strikeout rate in his final NPB season. Herz made his big league debut last season. He struck out nearly 28% of opponents with a solid 4.16 ERA in 19 starts. He hasn’t consistently thrown strikes in the minors, though, and he clearly has not looked sharp this spring.
The Nationals’ Fifth Starter Competition
The Nationals continue to evaluate candidates for the final spot in their rotation. Manager Dave Martinez confirmed to reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that four pitchers will be in the Opening Day rotation if healthy: MacKenzie Gore, Michael Soroka, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. The Nats haven’t revealed in what order those pitchers will take the ball, but the more meaningful development is that there’s only one rotation spot up for grabs.
There appear to be three candidates for that job. Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz are coming off solid rookie seasons. The Nats added former NPB southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara on an affordable two-year, $3.5MM free agent deal. All three are left-handers who are in their mid-20s and aiming to break camp for the first time in their MLB careers.
Parker is the most experienced of the bunch. Washington called up the 6’4″ southpaw in the middle of April. He stuck in the rotation for the remainder of the season. Parker made 29 starts and worked to a 4.29 earned run average through 151 innings. He posted a slightly below-average 20.6% strikeout rate against a solid 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t have huge stuff but looks the part of a solid back-end command artist.
Herz has the opposite profile. He missed bats on nearly 13% of his offerings. Herz posted a 27.7% strikeout rate, continuing a trend of plus swing-and-miss numbers he showed throughout his minor league career. His minor league walk numbers wouldn’t point to a long-term future in the rotation, but he showed surprisingly reasonable control (9.4% walk rate) over his first 19 MLB starts. He turned in a 4.16 ERA through 88 2/3 frames.
Ogasawara’s profile is closer to Parker’s. He allowed 3.62 earned runs per nine over his nine seasons in Japan. Ogasawara worked to a 3.12 ERA across 144 1/3 frames for Chunichi Dragons last season. He had a well below-average 13.6% strikeout rate that explains his modest deal. He walked fewer than 4% of batters faced, so he’s a good strike-thrower, but it’s not clear whether his stuff will play against big league competition.
No one from this trio has had an especially impressive camp. Parker’s results have been the best. He has allowed four runs through 7 1/3 innings, striking out seven without issuing a walk. Ogasawara has surrendered 11 runs (seven earned) with five walks and six strikeouts over 9 1/3 frames. Herz has allowed eight runs (six earned) with seven free passes and only three punchouts through 6 2/3 innings. While it’s not worth reading much into a handful of Spring Training appearances, Parker’s greater experience seemed to give him a leg up on the job entering camp. If that were the case, it’s hard to argue that Herz and Ogasawara have shown enough to overtake him to this point.
Mike Rizzo Discusses Nationals’ Rotation Plans, Offseason Moves
The Nationals made a surprise addition to their already crowded rotation mix yesterday when they signed southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a two-year deal. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo spoke to reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN and Spencer Nausbaum of the Washington Post) today about the club’s rotation plans for 2025 and where Ogasawara fits into that picture.
Ogasawara, 27, has posted a 3.28 ERA in 596 innings of work over the past four seasons with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons. While that’s a solid performance, the lefty’s lackluster 13.6% strikeout rate last year raised plenty of eyebrows when he was posted by the Dragons last month. That skepticism about his ability to make such a profile with such few strikeouts work in the majors led Ogasawara to sign a modest deal that guarantees him just $3.5MM, well below the going rate for even back-end starters in free agency. Rizzo expressed confidence in Ogasawara as a starting-caliber option despite those concerns, but stopped short of fully guaranteeing him a rotation spot or even an active roster spot to open the season in his discussion of the club’s rotation plans.
“We signed [Ogasawara] to be a starting pitcher for us in the big leagues,” Rizzo told reporters, including Zuckerman. “Of course, he’ll have to earn that spot in the rotation. I think there’s going to be great competition for the five spots in the rotation by some good, young, talented players. If he’s not ready for the big leagues, then we could always option him to Triple-A and bring him up sometime during the season. But we anticipate him battling out for a rotation spot, and I think it’s going to be a fun competition to watch.”
That most tracks with Andrew Golden of the Washington Post’s reporting on the state of the club’s rotation. Golden characterizes right-hander Michael Soroka, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, and right-hander Jake Irvin as the three players locked into Opening Day rotation spots if healthy. That leaves two spots in the rotation for Ogasawara, veteran right-hander Trevor Williams, and young southpaws Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz to compete for, though it’s worth noting that Williams himself indicated earlier this month that he’ll be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation. That would leave just one spot for Ogasawara, Parker, and Herz to compete for. Ogasawara seems likely to be the favorite for that role headed into Spring Training, though all three have options remaining and Golden suggested that he or even Williams could be pushed to a bullpen role if Parker and/or Herz look particularly good coming out of camp.
The club’s approach of adding plenty of depth to the rotation to ease their reliance on up-and-coming youngsters without blocking them meshes will with the club’s overall philosophy for this winter. As Nausbaum notes, Rizzo told reporters that given “where [the club is] at right now,” the club was cautious about signing free agents with a qualifying offer attached due to the associated loss of draft capital and international bonus pool money. The club’s reluctance to target qualified free agents led the club to bring in a number of short-term reinforcements this winter.
That includes not only their trio of rotation additions but also Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, and Jorge Lopez. All of those veterans come with either one or two seasons of control, preventing them from blocking the young players and prospects that the Nationals have been building around since they first began what has become a lengthy rebuild back in 2021. The club’s fortunes appear to be on the upswing headed into 2025 with that group of intriguing youngsters in the rotation and an outfield that currently projects to feature full seasons from James Wood and Dylan Crews in the corners. Cade Cavalli, Robert Hassell III, and Brady House are among the other noteworthy prospects in the club’s pipeline who have yet to establish themselves in the majors but could arrive at some point this season.
That reluctance to block top prospects and young players seems to have played a significant role in how the club’s offseason has played out to this point. Early in the winter, the Nationals were among the teams most frequently connected to Christian Walker before he ultimately signed with the Astros. Walker, of course, received a Qualifying Offer from the Diamondbacks that may have limited the Nationals’ interest in him and led to them pivoting towards the additions of Lowe and Bell. It’s also possible that the club’s desire to avoid blocking young players contributing to them not signing second baseman Gleyber Torres. Torres made clear shortly after he signed with the Tigers that the Nats were among the teams pursuing him but that they had wanted him to move to third base in order to accommodate 24-year-old Luis Garcia Jr. after he enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2024. When Torres landed elsewhere, the Nationals opted to sign Rosario, who has moved around to a number of positions all throughout his career and should have no trouble playing out of position if needed.
Trevor Williams To Open Season In Nationals’ Rotation
The Nationals brought Trevor Williams back on a two-year, $14MM free agent deal this week. The veteran righty spoke with the Washington beat (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) this afternoon and indicated he’ll be part of Dave Martinez’s rotation.
While that’s not surprising in isolation, it potentially sets up a camp battle if Washington sticks with a five-man staff. They signed righty Michael Soroka to a $9MM deal to work as a starter. The Nats are also bringing back four pitchers who started at least 19 games last season: Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.
All four of those returning arms had productive campaigns. Gore is a former top prospect who posted a 3.90 earned run average while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents across 32 starts. He’ll certainly be in the rotation. Irvin led the team with 187 2/3 innings and turned in a 4.41 ERA with decent underlying metrics. The 27-year-old righty did seem to wear down in the second half, as he allowed a near-6.00 ERA after taking a 3.49 mark into the All-Star Break. He still seems likely to be a starting pitcher himself.
If Washington wanted to begin the year with a five-man staff, that could leave Parker and Herz battling for a job if everyone comes through Spring Training healthy. Herz showed more swing-and-miss ability, fanning nearly 28% of opponents with a 12.9% swinging strike rate in 19 starts as a rookie. The southpaw’s 9.4% walk rate was the highest of any of Washington’s starters, though. Herz has had far more worrisome walk numbers in the minors, including a massive 19% clip over 10 Triple-A starts last year.
Parker, 25, profiles as a steadier back-end arm. He made 29 starts during his debut campaign and turned in a 4.29 ERA through 151 innings. He struck out 20.6% of opponents against a tidy 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t throw quite as hard as Herz does and doesn’t miss bats at the same rate, but he looks the part of a league average starter.
Washington used a six-man rotation when Williams returned from injury late last season. Patrick Corbin, who is now a free agent, was on hand in the role that Soroka would play this year. That’d be the simplest solution if all six starters are available on Opening Day. Each of Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz have minor league options, though, so the Nats could send anyone from that group to Triple-A if they wanted to move to a five-man staff.
Prospect Cade Cavalli will be in the mix after missing nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nusbaum writes that Cavalli, who made his big league debut with one start in 2022, is likely to open the year in the minors. That’s designed to allow the team to monitor his workload since he has only thrown 8 1/3 minor league innings over the last two years. Cavalli is expected to factor into the MLB staff at some point in the season.