Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers seems to be planning a quiet offseason, though the team must address second base and determine the future of Joe Saunders.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Chris Young, CF: $17MM through 2013
- Stephen Drew, SS: $9.1MM through 2012
- Justin Upton, RF: $45.25MM through 2015
- J.J. Putz, RP: $6MM through 2012
- John McDonald, IF: $3MM through 2013
- Geoff Blum, IF: $1.35MM through 2012
- Henry Blanco, C: $1.2MM through 2012
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Joe Saunders, SP: $8.7MM (non-tender candidate)
- Miguel Montero, C: $5.3MM
- Brad Ziegler, RP: $1.8MM
- Ryan Roberts, 3B/2B: $1.7MM
- Micah Owings, RP: $1.3MM (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Jason Marquis (unranked SP), Lyle Overbay (unranked 1B), Xavier Nady (unranked 1B/LF), Willie Bloomquist (unranked IF/OF), Aaron Hill (Type B 2B), Zach Duke (unranked SP)
The Diamondbacks pulled off the difficult worst-to-first feat this year. Several different executives deserve credit for crafting the 2011 D'Backs, but GM Kevin Towers will continue to mold the club in his second offseason. However, Towers is due for a relatively quiet winter, based on his October conversation with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
One area of need is second base, a position Towers shook up midseason by shipping the disappointing Kelly Johnson to Toronto for Hill and McDonald. Hill's $8MM club option didn't make sense for the D'Backs, and while Towers declined it, the idea of offering Hill arbitration should give the GM pause. The move would give the team a shot at a supplemental draft pick or the chance to have Hill back for around $6MM. But since Hill's stellar 142 plate appearances for Arizona were preceded by over 1,000 mostly bad ones, even $6MM seems generous. The idea of a second baseman worth three-to-four wins above replacement is tantalizing, and the D'Backs should be willing to commit $4MM in base salary to see if Hill can return to that level.
Towers has already addressed a couple of minor concerns, re-signing backups Blanco and McDonald for a total of $4.2MM. The D'Backs moved quickly on McDonald after Bloomquist declined his side of a mutual option, prompting agent Scott Boras to suggest, "They got upset when Willie opted out. They got emotional and they went out and signed a guy who hit .169." McDonald was a better fit, though, as a superior shortstop who can handle the assignment if Stephen Drew is not ready for Opening Day after July ankle surgery.
There's no trade market for a $9MM, mid-4s ERA southpaw, as the Pirates' inability to find a suitor for Paul Maholm attests. The D'Backs have a similar predicament with Saunders, whom they may non-tender by December 12th if they can't find a trade partner. Saunders is more of an innings eater, but the trade market will be very limited. Getting rid of Saunders means relying on Josh Collmenter as the team's third starter, a fairly risky proposition. If two of Tyler Skaggs, Pat Corbin, and Trevor Bauer round out the rotation, then a lot of pressure gets placed on Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson to repeat phenomenal 2011 seasons.
Towers told Piecoro he doesn't think there are "big, big needs" for his team, yet he won't rule out a run at "the right kind of marquee guy." President and CEO Derrick Hall agrees that there are "not many holes to fill." But with a potential $30MM in payroll flexibility, the D'Backs should be more aggressive in replacing Saunders in the rotation and adding a productive player at second or third base.
Towers also has internal business to tend to, as Drew, Montero, and Kennedy could be considered for extensions. Drew and Montero are entering their walk years and therefore should be more pressing concerns. Drew's health uncertainty and Boras representation make an offseason extension unlikely, but the D'Backs must begin planning for life without their longtime shortstop. There's no obvious replacement for Montero, either.
The Diamondbacks must be wary of resting on their laurels, as their rotation lacks stability behind Kennedy and Hudson. Instead, Towers should take advantage of the team's payroll flexibility by adding depth throughout the roster.
MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
Your window to make picks for MLBTR's first-ever free agent prediction contest is coming to a close. Tonight at midnight central time, picks will be locked. Only ballots with picks made for all of the top 50 free agents will be counted; incomplete ones will not be eligible. Be sure to update and save your picks by tonight's deadline!
For information about the contest rules and prizes, click here.
Sherman On Wright, Reyes
The latest from Joel Sherman of the New York Post…
- "We will listen on [David] Wright for sure," a Mets official told Sherman last week. The official added, "We know we are not going to win it all in 2012. We have to hope the Phillies get old and we are in position to take advantage of that in 2013-14, and we have to figure out ways to speed the process to get there." Sherman says the Mets crave a "young, defensive-oriented center fielder plus an arm or two" for Wright. He says they are focusing most on the Angels, and Peter Bourjos is a possibility.
- Sherman was hearing similar thoughts about Wright from a Mets official back on October 21st. Around then, an official told him, "We'll explore Wright's market. I think considering where we are as an organization, it would be foolish not to at least look at it. However, I expect actually pulling the trigger is a long shot." GM Sandy Alderson said on on October 31st that he thinks Wright will be a Met in 2012. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News heard a few days later that Alderson will be "strongly disinclined to deal" Wright. Though some of these reports have different themes, I don't consider them conflicting. I think the Mets are being careful not to be seen as "shopping" Wright, as that's considered a dirty word in terms of leverage. Wright seems far from off-limits, but with his value at a low point the Mets might prefer to wait.
- Sherman questions why the Mets weren't more proactive in trading Jose Reyes in July, a theme of my offseason outlook a few weeks ago. But I did note, "In Alderson's defense, Reyes spent half of July on the disabled list, perhaps cutting down his trade value to the point that two draft picks wasn't much worse."
- Sherman spoke to one American League talent evaluator who thinks the Phillies will be in on Reyes. It's true that they'll have the need and the money if Jimmy Rollins signs elsewhere.
MLBTR’s Agency Database
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MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
Dust off your crystal ball, it's time for MLBTR's first-ever free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team.
How To Play
- Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents. For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
- A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest. You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
- Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom. The contest is open now and runs until midnight central time on Sunday, November 6th. Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the Sunday deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest.
- The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing. The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.
Rules
- Final picks must be saved by November 6th at midnight central time – no exceptions.
- MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
- One entry per person, please.
- With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents. If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
- Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.
Prizes
- $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers
- Three Baseball's Greatest Games DVD sets from A&E
- One-year digital subscription to Baseball America, 2012 Prospect Handbook, 2012 Almanac, 2012 Great Parks Calendar
- Three copies of Baseball HQ's 2012 Forecaster book, three copies of Baseball HQ's 2012 Minor League Analyst book
- $50 coupon code for American Needle headwear
- One-year subscription to Baseball Prospectus
- One year unlimited services at Fantasy Judgment
- Three 2012 Bill James Baseball IQ iPhone apps
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Free Agents Can Sign With New Teams
Let the bidding begin! Free agents are now allowed to sign with new teams.
Activity may still be limited this month, however. 55 Type A or B free agents are eligible to be offered arbitration at the November 23rd deadline, based on the Elias rankings. In many cases, teams will wait to see whether an arbitration offer is made before signing a free agent. Say the Pirates want to sign Type A free agent Ramon Hernandez. If they sign him before November 23rd, an arbitration offer becomes assumed, and the Pirates have to give the Reds their second-round pick in the June 2012 draft. They'll want to see whether the Reds actually offer arbitration, because if not there will be no draft pick compensation.
This concept matters less for Type B free agents, because the new team doesn't directly give a draft pick to the old one. Teams still may not want to guarantee their competitors draft picks, though. If the Red Sox want to sign Type B free agent Freddy Garcia, doing so before November 23rd guarantees the Yankees a supplemental draft pick.
Certain star players will be obviously be offered arbitration, for example Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Jose Reyes. With these players the November 23rd deadline is not important, but stars usually don't sign in November anyway because they prefer to let the market develop into December or January.
Last year free agents were free to sign with new teams as of November 7th, and the arbitration offer deadline was November 23rd. Victor Martinez was the only Type A free agent to sign with a new team during that period, while Joaquin Benoit and John Buck were the only Bs. All three were locks for arbitration offers, so there was no harm in signing them early. There were several re-signings during that period, including Aubrey Huff, Jake Westbrook, Ramon Hernandez, and Jhonny Peralta.
Outrighted: Crowe, Rangers, Rodriguez, Braves
The latest players to be outrighted off 40-man rosters:
- The Indians outrighted Trevor Crowe off of their 40-man roster, according to the team. Crowe, who appeared in 15 games for the Indians in 2011, cannot elect free agency
- The Rangers outrighted pitchers Omar Beltre, Merkin Valdez and Eric Hurley and infielders Andres Blanco and Esteban German off of the 40-man roster, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. Blanco, who would have been arbitration eligible, projected to earn $500K through arbitration. He posted a .605 OPS in 82 plate appearances as a utility player and was the only one of the outrighted players to pick up significant playing time in 2011.
- The Mariners outrighted infielder Luis Rodriguez, tweets Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. I named Rodriguez and David Aardsma as the Mariners' primary non-tender candidates back in September, and now both are off the 40-man roster, which stands at 36. Rodriguez has elected free agency, reports MLB.com's Greg Johns.
- The Braves outrighted catcher J.C. Boscan, reliever Stephen Marek, outfielder Wilkin Ramirez, and outfielder Antoan Richardson to Triple-A Gwinnett, tweets MLB.com's Mark Bowman. Meanwhile, starter Todd Redmond's contract was selected. Marek had Tommy John surgery in May; he was obtained from the Angels with Casey Kotchman for Mark Teixeira at the '08 trade deadline. I thought at the time that the Braves' return topped the value of a couple of draft picks. That hasn't been true if you look at who the Angels took with their two Teixeira picks: top prospect Mike Trout and lefty Tyler Skaggs, a main component in the Dan Haren trade.
Cubs Will Have New Manager For 2012
The Cubs announced Mike Quade will not return as their manager in 2012, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. New Cubs president Theo Epstein said the following in a statement:
"The managerial search process begins immediately. We are looking for someone with whom and around whom we can build a foundation for sustained success. The next manager must have leadership and communication skills; he must place an emphasis on preparation and accountability; he must establish high standards and a winning culture; he must have integrity and an open mind; and he must have managerial or coaching experience at the major league level. I want to thank Mike for his nine years of excellent service to the Cubs, and we certainly wish him well in the future."
The statement seems to rule out Ryne Sandberg as a candidate for the next Cubs' manager. The Cubs are expected to talk to Dale Sveum, tweets MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. Sveum interviewed for the Red Sox manager job today.