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Projected Arbitration Salaries

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As explained in these three posts, Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model for MLBTR to project arbitration salaries.  By my count there are 196 remaining arbitration eligible players.   Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with our projected salaries, or click below to see everything.

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Tigers Notes: Ordonez, Guillen, Catcher, Jose Reyes

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Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski spoke to reporters today; here's the latest from John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press on Twitter.

Yankees Decline Option On Andrew Brackman

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The Yankees declined their 2012 option on righty Andrew Brackman, GM Brian Cashman told reporters on a conference call today.  The 6'10" 25-year-old righty is now a free agent; ESPN's Keith Law explains that Brackman's contract called for the Yankees to release him if they didn't pick up his option. 

Brackman, 25, made his Major League debut this year with three relief appearances.  The Yankees drafted him 30th overall out of North Carolina State in 2007 and signed him to a $4.45MM Major League contract.  The Yankees knew at the time that Brackman needed Tommy John surgery.  Brackman made it up to Triple-A this year, where he was shifted to the bullpen.  He posted a 6.00 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 7.0 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 96 innings.

Beltran Switches From Boras To Lozano

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One of the offseason's biggest free agents is leaving baseball's most notorious agency.  Carlos Beltran has switched from the Boras Corporation to Dan Lozano's Icon Sports Group, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.  Boras gets a taste of his own medicine here, as he's well-known for taking prominent free agent clients from other agencies as big paydays are approaching.

Back in January of 2005, Boras authored Beltran's seven-year, $119MM contract with the Mets.  With the contract reaching its conclusion, Boras had lunch with Beltran in September to discuss his next contract.  However, the 34-year-old right fielder may have already been interviewing other agencies, as Crasnick says he did so this summer.

As MLBTR's agency database shows, Lozano will also be working on free agent deals this winter for Albert Pujols, Jimmy Rollins, and several other veterans.  Boras, meanwhile, still has Prince Fielder, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, Francisco Rodriguez, Carlos Pena, Bruce Chen, Johnny Damon, Mike Gonzalez, Magglio Ordonez, Andruw Jones, and Jason Varitek this offseason.

Follow @mlbtraderumors On Twitter

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In the last three years, Twitter has become an essential part of MLB coverage.  Nearly every baseball writer has a Twitter account, and the majority of news is broken through this medium.

Twitter isn't the perfect medium for disseminating baseball news and opinions.  Tweets are limited to 140 characters, so context is often lacking.  Plus, traffic that previously went to the website of a major news outlet now may go primarily to Twitter itself.  One early concern was whether baseball writers would take Twitter seriously and make sure to post only reliable information.  That concern is all but gone as we approach 2012.  In my experience, baseball writers realize they must treat Twitter with the same permanence and seriousness as words printed in a newspaper.

Twitter is free to join; you can do so here.  You can follow us @mlbtraderumors.  Following MLBTR means you'll see a tweet for each new post, including a link to MLBTradeRumors.com.  We also re-tweet information we've added to pre-existing posts, so you know there's been an update.  Retweeting is simply passing along a tweet authored by a baseball writer.

For my personal opinions and the occasional piece of inside information, follow me @timdierkes.  Many MLBTR writers are on Twitter as well.     

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are unlikely to do much free agent shopping, but improvements at left field and shortstop are possible. 

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents 

The 2011 Braves collapsed in epic fashion down the stretch, yet most of the pieces are in place for a competitive 2012 club.  That's fortunate, because GM Frank Wren has limited financial flexibility.

Assuming Moylan is non-tendered, the Braves will have about $84MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's $7MM less than the 2011 payroll of $91MM.  The Braves were closer to $100MM in 2008-09, but with a 5% drop in attendance this year raising payroll could be difficult.  Clearing $5MM of Lowe's salary yesterday was a win for the Braves, who did not envision him in next year's rotation.  Wren told reporters in October that Prado is likely back in left field next year, but otherwise I can see him traded or non-tendered.

Trading Jurrjens could serve the dual purpose of shedding $5MM and bringing back a bat, but Wren said this month: "We have a lot of pitching but I think it’s not something that we’re looking to trade from."  His statement could be interpreted in various ways, so we can't rule out a Jurrjens deal if the right offer comes along.  The Braves have more depth than most teams with their "Big Four" of young starters: Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor, and Arodys Vizcaino.  With Lowe gone, Hudson will be the lone 2012 starter who exceeded 152 MLB innings in 2011.  But if the Braves feel Brandon Beachy, Tommy Hanson, and perhaps Minor can handle full workloads, Jurrjens may be expendable.

I think teams will be wary of surrendering a lot for Jurrjens.  SIERA suggests he's a 4.40 type pitcher, despite his career ERA of 3.40.  His strikeout rate dropped to 5.3 per nine this year, and he's missed significant time the last couple years due to knee, oblique, and hamstring injuries.  Any big league hitter the Braves get back would probably come with similar question marks or red flags.

I'm unconvinced the Braves won't look into left field upgrades, though a reasonable free agent target like Josh Willingham could prove a wash with Prado.  Still, bringing in a left fielder would allow Prado to back up Jones at third base.  The Braves will need an answer at shortstop, with prospect Tyler Pastornicky the favorite at the moment.  The Braves showed with Freddie Freeman they're not afraid to pencil a rookie into a starting job, but Wren should probably bring back Alex Gonzalez or a comparable veteran as an insurance policy.  Since Gonzalez is a Type B free agent, an arbitration offer makes sense.

The Braves' rotation averaged only 5.91 innings per start, 11th in the NL and worst among contenders.  They were saved by the league's best bullpen, but Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, O'Flaherty, and Cristhian Martinez probably can't provide 316 innings again.  Free agents Linebrink and Sherrill didn't shoulder that kind of a workload, but the Braves should probably sign at least one veteran reliever to take some of the load.  Overall it looks like another winter of limited free agent shopping, after the Braves spent only about $5MM on that market last offseason.

For the most part, the Braves' improvements will come from within, as better overall seasons from Uggla, Prado, Jason Heyward, and Bourn are entirely feasible.  More innings from the rotation will be another key to success.

Anthopoulos On DH, Encarnacion, Rauch

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Blue Jays reporter Alex Anthopoulos spoke with reporters today; here's the latest.  All links go to the Twitter accounts of Shi Davidi and Gregor Chisholm.

C.J. Wilson: “Great Chance” Of Staying With Rangers

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C.J. Wilson is currently the best pitcher on the free agent market, and he could probably use a break after making 39 starts this year.  Paul Salfen of Scoreboard Daily caught up with Wilson on Saturday; here are some highlights.

  • Asked the chances he'll be back with the Rangers next year, Wilson replied, "Yeah, there’s a great chance because I like it here and I’ve won here."  He added later, "It’s now all about figuring out how all of the guys on the team – not just me – there’s Elvis, Nelson, Josh, Ian – a lot of guys have contractual things that are coming up. I think one thing the Rangers want me to know is what they’re planning on doing with all of these other guys in the long term. So that gives me confidence that we’re going to keep winning."
  • Wilson expects the Rangers and other teams to call, but doesn't think there will be an actual offer for a while.  He is not expecting a quick resolution.
  • On ESPN's Galloway and Company show yesterday, Rangers president Nolan Ryan said, "You don't really know what that market is going to be.  That market will develop as we go forward. Do I think we'll be competitive? Yeah, I do. I think we'll be competitive."  Earlier this month, SI's Jon Heyman wrote there's little chance the Rangers get close to a five-year, $75MM offer for Wilson.
  • Predict the landing spots for Wilson and 49 other free agents in our new contest for a chance to win cash and baseball-related prizes.

Red Sox Rumors: Sizemore, Shortstops, Sabathia

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The latest Red Sox rumors, courtesy of Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald…

  • The Red Sox are expected to explore signing free agent Grady Sizemore as a right field option, a team source tells Silverman.  Sizemore would not rule out playing a corner outfield position for the first time in his MLB career, said agent Joe Urbon.  An incentive-laden contract for Sizemore would likely include a player option, writes Silverman.  Sizemore ranks 26th on my top 50 free agents list.
  • Predict which top free agents the Red Sox and other teams will sign in our new contest for a chance to win awesome prizes.
  • In declining Dan Wheeler's $3MM option yesterday, new Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said, "We didn’t feel like we could commit to that money this early in the offseason."
  • Cherington hinted that the team's shortstop surplus could be helpful on the trade market.
  • The Red Sox made no offer for Derek Lowe, said Cherington.
  • The Red Sox were "expected to go after C.C. Sabathia hard, if only to drive his price tag in New York higher," hears Silverman.  Sabathia completed a contract extension last night.
  • Though Commissioner Bud Selig could step in as early as today to resolve the Theo Epstein compensation talks, Silverman doesn't think it's a hard deadline.

C.C. Sabathia Signing Reactions

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Last night the Yankees completed a contract extension with ace C.C. Sabathia, adding one guaranteed year and an additional $30MM and preventing him from opting out and reaching the open market.  The new total is $122MM over five guaranteed years, with the $24.4MM average annual value representing a record for a pitcher.  If Sabathia avoids a shoulder injury in 2016, a 2017 option will vest and the total will become $147MM over six years.

As with Cliff Lee and the Phillies last year, it's hard to call a record-setting contract a discount.  However, I believe Sabathia would have landed six guaranteed years in that same $147MM range, at minimum, on the open market.  A seventh guaranteed year wouldn't have been out of the question.  It's a huge contract, but Sabathia took significantly less guaranteed money to stay in New York.  On to today's C.C.-related links…

  • "It was an easy choice" to stay with the Yankees, Sabathia told reporters.  Avoiding free agency was a big motivation for him.
  • The Yankees can now "shop in comfort rather than desperation," writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Sherman still expects the Yankees to bid for the right to negotiate with Yu Darvish, if the righty is posted.  He also thinks the team will explore the trade market for another left-handed starter.
  • Yesterday "wasn't a great day for Yankees fans," writes Ken Davidoff of Newsday, but "it could've been much worse."
  • "The number of elite pitchers who excel throughout their 30s should make us accepting of the deal," writes Benjamin Kabak of River Ave. Blues.

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