Free Agent Stock Watch: Wei-Yin Chen
Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen belongs somewhere in our top 50 free agents list, perhaps in the 20s. Chen will likely be coming to MLB from Japan's Chunichi Dragons as a 26-year-old free agent. The Taiwanese lefty was a foreign player in Nippon Professional Baseball, and his agents at Octagon negotiated free agency into his contract.
Chen's arm may be fresher than many hurlers coming over from Japan, given his age and the fact that his innings were limited by Tommy John surgery several years ago. On the other hand, he's not lighting up radar guns as he once did, and his strikeout rate dipped to 5.1 per nine innings in 164 2/3 frames this year. Chen did manage a 2.68 ERA, keeping his walks and home runs allowed down.
Chen is expected to come to MLB if he's offered a rotation job. I don't expect the price to be exorbitant — perhaps a four-year deal worth less than $20MM would get it done. Interest should be strong in a market light on reasonably-priced starting pitchers with upside.
NPB Rumors: Aoki, Nakajima, Chen, Kuroda, Igawa
Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker has scoured Japanese newspapers for the latest rumors.
- Yakult center fielder Norichika Aoki has asked to be posted. Aoki hit .292/.358/.360 in 643 plate appearances in 2011. Newman wrote last year that Aoki was "the best pure hitter Japan has produced since Ichiro," but that was before his numbers dropped off significantly in 2011. Despite great range, Newman thought last year that Aoki's weak arm could limit him to left field in MLB.
- Seibu shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima will again ask to be posted this offseason. Nakajima was denied that request last winter, though the Orioles and Mariners were reportedly among the interested teams. The 29-year-old hit .297/.354/.433 with 16 home runs in 633 plate appearances this year. Newman considered Aoki Japan's second-best hitter in his August 2010 article.
- Chunichi southpaw Wei-Yin Chen was 50/50 on moving to MLB as of October 26th. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports dubbed Chen a "likely free agent" in a report this morning. The 26-year-old posted a 2.68 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 0.49 HR/9 in 164 2/3 innings this year. He's represented by Alan Nero of Octagon.
- The Hiroshima Carp have an offer out to Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda said he's happy to have received the offer from his former team. His plans for 2012 remain unknown though.
- Multiple Japanese teams have interest in Kei Igawa, who reached free agency after his five-year deal with the Yankees expired.
Rosenthal On Oswalt, Giants, Kuroda, Chen
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports dishes the latest on several free agents…
- The Nationals "plan a major push" for free agent righty Roy Oswalt, and Rosenthal considers the Rangers another potential player. Nats GM Mike Rizzo explained his interest earlier this month. Oswalt's agent Bob Garber told Jon Paul Morosi, "With Roy, home and family are very important to him. It would be a bonus to be close to home, but nothing is off limits, in terms of either coast or the Midwest. Ideally, yes, it would be great to be close to home, but it's not going to stop us, if it's the right situation. His goal is to get the ring. He doesn't have any jewelry right now. He's made a lot of money. At this point, it's about the ring. That's what he wants to take with him." Oswalt lives in Mississippi.
- Rosenthal doesn't see the Giants having the money to afford Carlos Beltran or Jose Reyes this winter. This math was apparent in September, when GM Brian Sabean told reporters payroll would remain about the same, around $125MM. The Giants currently have $81.683MM in contractual commitments for 2012, and if they tender the most likely nine of their 13 arbitration eligible players that's another estimated $38.7MM for a total of $120.383MM before minimum salary players are considered. A few million for 2012 could be freed up by trading Jeff Keppinger and signing Tim Lincecum to a multiyear deal.
- Rosenthal feels that Hiroki Kuroda "might be more open to playing elsewhere, having gone through the experience of considering another team." I ranked Kuroda 15th on my top 50 free agents list.
- Wei-Yin Chen of the Chunichi Dragons is a likely free agent, writes Rosenthal. Agent Alan Nero told Rosenthal Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada are drawing significant interest. Last week, Chen said he was 50/50 on moving to MLB (link in Japanese, thanks to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker for the translation). Chen controls the process due to a free agency clause in his contract, and he's only 26. Newman tells me Chen topped out around 91 miles per hour this year, short of the 95 he reached a few years ago, but he's still interesting enough to fit in the middle of our top 50 list. I ranked Wada 34th.
Visit Rumores De Béisbol
Did you know MLB Trade Rumors has a Spanish-language sister site with a focus on Latin American players? Rumores De Béisbol features human-translated MLBTR posts every day, and can be followed on Twitter here.
Yoenis Cespedes To Gain Free Agency
7:15pm: The Red Sox are "sending everyone" to the Dominican to evaluate Cespedes, according to MLB.com's Peter Gammons. The Rangers are also interested, along with the many teams named below, according to Gammons, who confirms that small-market teams like the A's, Pirates and Indians will be involved.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports names the Marlins, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, and Nationals as teams with a significant presence at the Friday workout.
5:49pm: Yankees GM Brian Cashman confirmed that he saw the Cespedes video, but wouldn't say whether the Yankees are interested, according to Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger (link on Twitter; the video has been removed). Meanwhile, Braves GM Frank Wren told David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he doesn't expect to sign the center fielder, though they're checking in on him (Twitter link).
2:25pm: The Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Indians, Athletics, and Pirates have had a presence at Cespedes' workouts, reports Yahoo's Tim Brown. Giants GM Brian Sabean told reporters today that his team will not be involved on Cespedes, however (via Andrew Baggarly on Twitter).
Agent Adam Katz tells Brown he'll wait until his client is technically declared a free agent before discussing contract terms with teams. The Yankees, Phillies, and Marlins will have private workouts with Cespedes within the next few weeks, with a Marlins contingent heading to the Dominican Republic this week.
8:30am: Cuban center fielder Yoenis Cespedes defected mid-summer and is expected to be cleared for free agency within a matter of weeks, reports Yahoo's Jeff Passan. The 26-year-old is "arguably the best all-around player to come out of Cuba in a generation," according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, who describes Cespedes as "a legitimate centerfielder with plus power and speed." Both Passan and Goldstein expect the 26-year-old to receive a deal in the range of the $30.25MM Aroldis Chapman received in January of 2010. MLBTR first told you about Cespedes' escape from the Cuban National Team in July.
If you really want to get to know Cespedes, though, you need to watch the 20-minute YouTube video sent by his trainer to MLB teams. Goldstein's column provides a full breakdown of this bizarre production, but I'll just note that it includes Cespedes making a 45-inch vertical jump, leg-pressing 1,300 pounds (with two friends atop the weights), catching a flyball behind his back while facing the batter (twice), a thank you to Ahman Green, and the player roasting a pig. Some of the songs used may not be appropriate for your workplace, except for Christopher Cross' 1980 hit "Sailing," which was deemed too tame even for your office's elevator.
Cespedes is represented by Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group. Passan says the Yankees are "particularly hot" for the center fielder. Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post says the Nationals had multiple talent evaluators on hand at Cespedes' workout last week in the Dominican Republic, and a team official said they'd "love to have him." Ownership has been informed about Cespedes and what it would take to sign him. The Marlins and Phillies are also in the mix for Cespedes, writes Kilgore. As with Chapman, this type of player in his prime will draw the interest of almost every club.
The Marlins have the inside track, one American League source who attended the showcase told Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. A Marlins contingent including owner Jeffrey Loria will visit Cespedes in the Dominican Republic later this week, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Jose Reyes To Meet With Marlins
3:47pm: The Marlins contacted Reyes one minute into the free agent signing period, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. A group of Marlins executives went to New York this week and it appears they were going to visit Reyes’ agent, Peter Greenberg.
2:38pm: Free agent shortstop Jose Reyes is scheduled to meet with the Marlins, according to WFAN's Mike Francesa (Twitter link). The tweet says that Reyes has received an offer, but my guess is nothing has been formally presented at this early stage.
The Marlins' interest in Reyes is real, so what would become of Hanley Ramirez if they sign Reyes? Marlins president David Samson told MLB.com's Joe Frisaro there have been no conversations about moving Ramirez to another position, but I'd be surprised if the Fish haven't discussed the possibility internally. A trade could be another option.
Major free agents typically sign in December or January, so much remains to be seen about the composition of Reyes' market.
Twins Name Terry Ryan Interim GM
Terry Ryan is returning to the role of Twins GM, the team announced today. Ryan, who has an interim tag on his title this time, replaces Bill Smith. Said owner Jim Pohlad in a statement:
"The Twins goal is to get better in 2012 and beyond. Bill was equally motivated to achieve that goal but we differed in the scope and approach that was required. Going forward, we intend to have additional discussions with Bill about an ongoing role within the organization."
Smith spent over four years as Twins GM. He won two division titles and nearly three in that time, but 2011 was disastrous for the club.
Ryan has been in the Twins organization for 28 years, serving as GM from 1994-2007 before assuming the role of senior advisor. The two-time Sporting News Executive of the Year said, "We have many assets in place including a strong front office, manager, coaching staff and returning core of players. We have a lot of work to do in relation to development of our roster, but I’m optimistic in our collective abilities to ensure the future on-field success of this franchise."
Trade And Free Agent Market For Starting Pitchers
The Braves, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, and Diamondbacks probably will not be in the market for starting pitching this offseason, but most other teams will be. Here's how the market shapes up.
Top-Of-The-Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade
Yu Darvish is not technically a free agent, but any team will be able to bid for the exclusive rights to negotiate with him if the Nippon-Ham Fighters post him. He may require a $100MM+ commitment, and would become the ace of many MLB staffs. Regular free agents C.J. Wilson and Roy Oswalt would slot in as the #1 or #2 starter in several rotations. All three have their share of question marks, but they're as close to aces as we've got.
The trade market for aces looks bleak or non-existent, if the Rays' James Shields is truly "very unlikely" to be dealt. There is currently no reason to think Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, or Josh Beckett will be traded this offseason, though there's a surprise every year.
Middle-Of-The Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade
The free agent market features several starters who can slot in comfortably at #3: Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, and Javier Vazquez. Erik Bedard and Bartolo Colon make solid #3s when healthy, while Hisashi Iwakuma could be worthy of the designation.
On the trade market, Gio Gonzalez and Jair Jurrjens can be considered third starters or even a little more. With four more years of club control, the A's could having an asking price for Gonzalez exceeding that of Matt Garza last offseason. If the A's are willing to discuss Gonzalez they may also listen on Brandon McCarthy. Wandy Rodriguez, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jeremy Guthrie, and Ricky Nolasco could be available as well.
Back-Of-The Rotation Starters Available In Free Agency Or Trade
The free agent market offers known commodities Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia, Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm, Jason Marquis. There are also many more with something to prove, like Rich Harden, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Dontrelle Willis.
John Lannan, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Homer Bailey, Brett Myers, Carlos Zambrano, Travis Wood, A.J. Burnett, and Edinson Volquez are speculative trade candidates.
Non-Tender Candidates
Joe Saunders, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Volstad, Ross Ohlendorf, Kevin Slowey, Jerome Williams, and Tom Gorzelanny have some chance of being non-tendered in December, so they may be presently available. Jonathan Sanchez, a non-tender candidate for the Giants, was just traded to the Royals.
Thinking Outside The Box
Last winter the Rangers were interested in signing Bobby Jenks as a starter, and a rotation opportunity motivated Aaron Heilman to sign with Arizona. There are no obvious candidates to make the relief-rotation shift, but a few should pop up as the offseason progresses.
Royals Acquire Jonathan Sanchez For Melky Cabrera
The Royals acquired lefty Jonathan Sanchez and minor league starter Ryan Verdugo from the Giants for outfielder Melky Cabrera, announced the team.
Sanchez, 28, may have been a non-tender candidate for the Giants after a disappointing 2011 season that saw him walk 5.9 per nine innings and miss significant time with biceps tendinitis and a sprained ankle. The southpaw is tough to hit and has big-time strikeout numbers, but control has always been a problem. In Sanchez, Felipe Paulino, and Danny Duffy, Royals GM Dayton Moore has strong strikeout potential for three-fifths of his 2012 rotation. Sanchez projects to earn $5.2MM in 2012, after which he'll be eligible for free agency. That he was traded for one year of Cabrera shows how much his trade value slipped during the '11 season. Sanchez was set to battle Barry Zito for the Giants' fifth starter job next year.
Cabrera had the opposite experience in 2011, as he had a resurgence after being non-tendered and signing a $1.25MM free agent deal. The 27-year-old hit .305/.339/.470 with 18 home runs in 706 plate appearances for the Royals, playing mostly center field. UZR suggests he is a below-average defender there, though there seems a good chance the Giants continue to use him in center. If so, Andres Torres could become expendable. Cabrera is projected to earn $4.4MM in 2012, after which he'll be eligible for free agency. With the deal, the Royals opened up center field for prospect Lorenzo Cain.
Verdugo, a 24-year-old Double-A southpaw, went to Kansas City along with Sanchez in the deal. Baseball America ranked him 25th among Giants prospects prior to the season, describing him as a deceptive lefty who misses bats but has minus command. Verdugo was a starter in college and returned to that role last year.
Rosenthal On Butler, Sizemore, Orioles
The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- The Phillies have serious interest in free agent Michael Cuddyer, although Rosenthal is skeptical of them adding a player who turns 33 in March. Rosenthal says other left fielders are in the mix, but none are ideal. One player Rosenthal did not mention is Josh Willingham, who I can see the Phillies considering. As for a splash at shortstop, Rosenthal says Jose Reyes' leg problems scare the Phillies.
- The Orioles were desperate to find a new GM and Dan Duquette was desperate to be a GM again, writes Rosenthal. A press conference is expected this week to announce Duquette's three-year deal.
- The Royals view Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer as their 3-4 hitters long-term, so don't look for Butler on the trade market this winter. The 25-year-old is potentially under team control through 2015 on an extension signed in January.
- Rosenthal sees Grady Sizemore landing with a high-revenue team for an amount close to the $9MM option Cleveland passed on. I'd be surprised if he tops $7MM guaranteed. Sizemore's agent Joe Urbon said his client prefers to play center field, but is open to a corner spot.
- The Orioles are trying to add pitching depth via the six-year minor league free agent market. Here's the list of minor league free agents from Matt Eddy of Baseball America.
- Rosenthal says to look for Ryne Sandberg to be promoted to Phillies bench coach of Pete Mackanin is hired by the Cubs or Red Sox. He also thinks recently-fired Cubs manager Mike Quade would then be a possibility to manage the Phillies' Triple-A club.