Starting Pitcher Trade Candidates By SIERA
SIERA is an estimator of what a pitcher's ERA would be with average luck, defense, and park, by looking at other pitchers with similar strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rates in recent seasons. The stat goes a step further than similar estimators by accounting for the batting average on balls in play and home run per flyball rates of similar pitchers. Here's your trade candidate SIERA leaderboard from FanGraphs, which now carries an improved version of the stat:
- Anibal Sanchez – 3.07
- Rich Harden – 3.20 (18 innings)
- Erik Bedard – 3.23
- Derek Lowe – 3.52
- Brandon McCarthy – 3.58
- Wandy Rodriguez – 3.60
- Ricky Nolasco – 3.60
- Chris Capuano – 3.61
- Edwin Jackson – 3.62
- Ubaldo Jimenez – 3.64
- Hiroki Kuroda – 3.68
- Tom Gorzelanny – 3.70
- Ted Lilly – 3.79
- Jeff Niemann – 3.92
- Brett Myers – 3.94
- John Danks – 4.05
- Aaron Harang – 4.05
- Jason Marquis – 4.08
- Livan Hernandez – 4.20
- Javier Vazquez – 4.26
- Jeff Francis – 4.26
- Jeremy Guthrie – 4.27
- Bruce Chen – 4.58
- Kyle Davies – 4.61
- Aaron Cook - 4.66 (38 2/3 innings)
There is a subjective element in choosing trade candidates – for example, it was my choice to leave off James Shields and include McCarthy. For the most part I tried to be inclusive, including players like Sanchez, Nolasco, and Jimenez even though they are unlikely to be dealt.
Reviewing Royals Trade Candidates
The Royals are on the rise, but it's not happening this year. Let's review their primary trade candidates.
- The Royals are pushing Melky Cabrera rather than Jeff Francoeur, wrote Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports yesterday. However, SI's Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Royals are not anxious to trade either outfielder, with both expected back next year. Francoeur has a mutual option, while Cabrera will be arbitration eligible. Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi wrote recently that the Phillies and Angels have shown interest in Cabrera, while the Giants have light interest.
- Heyman finds infielder Wilson Betemit more likely to be dealt. The FOX writers noted the Brewers' interest a couple of days ago. The Pirates make some sense as well, in my opinion.
- Southpaw Jeff Francis owns a 4.62 ERA in 122 2/3 innings and should draw interest. Likewise for Bruce Chen. Francis has not been linked to any specific teams yet, but during the offseason the Pirates, Rangers, and Yankees were among the teams in on him.
- The Royals would let righty Jeff Suppan go to any team seeking big league help, tweets Heyman. The 36-year-old veteran has a 4.68 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 1.3 HR/9 in 115 1/3 Triple-A innings this year.
Tigers Interested In Jeremy Guthrie
The Tigers have interest in Orioles righty Jeremy Guthrie, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The 32-year-old is behind Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda on Detroit's wish list, however.
Guthrie sports a 4.45 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9, and 35.7% groundball rate in 123 1/3 innings this year. He's earning $5.75MM this year, and depending on how his peers do in arbitration, Guthrie could jump to the $10MM range in 2012. Word is that the Orioles will listen on Guthrie, but they'll need to get pitching back in return.
Morosi notes that the Orioles had a Major League scout at Sunday's game between the Triple-A affiliates of the Tigers and Yankees. Not only did the Tigers' second-best pitching prospect Andy Oliver start that contest, but the Tigers' front office instructed manager Phil Nevin to use Charlie Furbush. It appears that the Tigers and Orioles match up well for a Guthrie trade.
On the Derek Lowe front, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick tweets that the chances of the Tigers acquiring him are extremely low. He says the Braves would have to pick up at least 75% of the $21MM owed to Lowe through next year, so about $15.75MM, and that's not happening. Surely there's a team that values Lowe at more than $5.25MM through 2012.
Players With 10-and-5 Rights
10-and-5 rights are tough to earn – a player needs ten years in the Majors, the last five with his current team. The players' union wants these rights to mean something, so players are discouraged from waiving them. The rights are still waived at times – for example, Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman eventually approved trades last summer.
Here's our list of players with 10-and-5 rights:
Carlos Beltran
Mark Buehrle
Chris Carpenter
Ryan Dempster
Rafael Furcal
Carlos Guillen
Todd Helton
Tim Hudson
Brandon Inge
Derek Jeter
Chipper Jones
Paul Konerko
John McDonald
Joe Nathan
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz
A.J. Pierzynski
Jorge Posada
Albert Pujols
Aramis Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Jimmy Rollins
Ichiro Suzuki
Jason Varitek
Tim Wakefield
Michael Young
It appears that Carlos Zambrano will join the club on August 7th, and Josh Beckett will achieve 10-and-5 rights on August 19th. Zambrano, of course, already has a full no-trade clause as part of his contract.
Pirates Eyeing Hunter Pence
The Pirates have scouted Astros outfielder Hunter Pence with the trade deadline in mind, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Astros hosted the Bucs over the weekend, losing two of three. Yesterday morning, Pence noted that the possibility of being traded is completely out of his hands. At .320/.363/.490, he makes a coveted trade target in a market thin on bats.
Pence said before yesterday's game that everyone's been talking about the Pirates, who are a half game out in the NL Central with over 40% of the season remaining. On Friday, ESPN's Buster Olney reported that the Astros would have to be "overwhelmed" to part with Pence. I imagine Astros GM Ed Wade would require even more from the Pirates for the 28-year-old, since they'd have to compete against him through the 2013 season. Plus, the Bucs' top prospects are not close to the Majors, so they might be a tough sell to the Astros' fanbase. The two division rivals haven't matched up on a significant trade in a decade, when the Astros acquired Pirates closer Mike Williams for Tony McKnight. That deal was authored by Gerry Hunsicker and Dave Littlefield.
Biertempfel mentions one intriguing possibility, which I tossed out there a week ago: Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez. The former Pirate could provide a big-time offensive boost from the hot corner for the season's final two months. One issue: on June 7th, Ramirez's agent Paul Kinzer explained that Ramirez has a full no-trade clause and doesn't want to go anywhere. Kinzer did leave the door open a crack, though. And Pirates GM Neal Huntington told Biertempfel in a general sense that "no-trade clauses are often used as leverage," unless a player flat-out doesn't want to be dealt to a particular club. The other issue might be negotiating away Ramirez's $16MM club option for 2012, which vests upon a trade.
The Pirates have checked in on the Athletics' Josh Willingham and Conor Jackson, tweeted ESPN's Jerry Crasnick last night. For more players the team could pursue, check out my post from a week ago.
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Rangers Place Scott Feldman On Outright Waivers
9:45pm: Feldman will join the Rangers' big league bullpen tomorrow, reports MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. The Rangers will need to clear a 40-man roster spot for the righty. Either Andres Blanco is going to the 60-day DL, or someone is getting designated for assignment or outrighted.
10:02am: The Rangers placed starter Scott Feldman on outright waivers, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The waivers expire in about two hours. The Rangers' goal appears to be avoiding adding Feldman back to the 40-man roster, since his stay on the 60-day DL is ending and the roster is currently full.
Feldman had microfracture knee surgery in November of last year, and I think he'll clear waivers because of his contract. He's owed about $1.8MM more this year, $6.5MM in 2012, and a $600K buyout for a total of almost $9MM through next season. Feldman has made ten rehab starts this year, posting a 4.17 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 across 49 2/3 Double and Triple-A innings.
Feldman, 28, posted a 4.08 ERA in 189 2/3 big league innings in 2009, earning him the multiyear contract. Teams looking for low strikeout innings eaters have safer options this month, such as Jason Marquis and Bruce Chen.
Francisco Rodriguez Trade Links
Shortly after the All-Star game last night, the Brewers came out of nowhere to acquire Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez and $5MM from the Mets for two minor league players to be named later. The deal came together quickly, tweets ESPN's Adam Rubin. The Mets couldn't afford to wait much longer, because K-Rod has a $17.5MM option for 2012 that vests with 55 games finished, and the reliever racked up 34 closing for the Mets. Details and links on the deal…
- Agent Paul Kinzer never submitted the list of ten teams to which Rodriguez could block trades, according to David Waldstein of the New York Times. The Mets didn't want to lose the freedom to deal Rodriguez anywhere, so they made the deal once Rodriguez switched agents to Scott Boras. The Mets thought Boras would submit a list of ten teams or file a grievance in an attempt to do so.
- Brewers GM Doug Melvin told Jim Memolo and Mel Antonen of MLB Network Radio that the list of five minor league players the Mets will choose from in September does not include the Brewers' "top top guys," but they are "players that could play in the big leagues."
- The Brewers were not among the ten teams to which Rodriguez could block a trade, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. That comes as no surprise, because new agent Scott Boras had indicated recently that his client would not approve a trade to set up if the team was among those ten. The smart money is on K-Rod setting up for Brewers closer John Axford, though there's room for the new acquisition to safely finish ten or more games.
- Though the agent had no influence on the trade, Rosenthal and Morosi note that it benefits Boras to get Rodriguez to free agency after the season, commission-wise. I imagine Boras found all of this to be the likely scenario when he began representing K-Rod.
- The Mets called around and offered similar deals to other teams, including the Yankees, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney. He says the Brewers were willing to take on more money than any other team. Alderson told the Brewers they had other deals for Rodriguez, so they'd have to pull the trigger now to get him, tweets Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. The Yankees declined because they were wary of having two emotional relievers – K-Rod and Rafael Soriano – working before their preferred ninth inning, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs says the trade is a big bet on Axford for the Brewers.
- ESPN's Keith Law says the Brewers should have gone after a reliever who misses more bats, given the team's porous defense. With all due respect to Law, I can't find an available reliever with a higher strikeout rate than Rodriguez's 9.7 per nine, outside of Koji Uehara.
- K-Rod will diminish his free agent value if he makes any waves about his role with Milwaukee, writes Rosenthal.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson had to be the adult in the room and make this deal, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- Dan Mennella discusses the fantasy baseball ramifications of the trade over at CloserNews.
Cardinals Sign Jaime Garcia To Four-Year Deal
The Cardinals announced that they signed Jaime Garcia to a four-year deal with two club options, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN). Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that the deal is worth $27.5MM in guaranteed money (Twitter link). Michael Golde of KTRS 550 AM first tweeted a rumor of the Garcia extension last Thursday, with the contract details included.
Garcia, 25, is enjoying another fine season with a 3.22 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 54.5% groundball rate in 117 1/3 innings. He was set to become arbitration eligible for the first time after the season, so it appears that the contract covers his three arbitration years (2012-14) and his first free agent year, with options on two additional free agent years. Garcia is represented by Melvin Roman of MDR Sports Management, having made a change this year.
The deal falls a bit short of the contracts earlier this year for Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill, which also featured a pair of club options. Keep in mind that Garcia's first-year arbitration earning power would have been limited by time missed due to '09 Tommy John surgery.
West Notes: Rockies, Padres, Mariners
Baseball's western divisions have the Rangers, Angels, Giants, and Diamondbacks as contenders, with the Mariners, Athletics, Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres looking like potential sellers. Today's links:
- There's little the Rockies could obtain that would justify trading Ubaldo Jimenez, explains Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. It was revealed Saturday that the Rockies will listen on their ace, but Renck says Dan O'Dowd is the rare GM who will engage in trade talk that's headed nowhere just to understand other teams' needs.
- O'Dowd told MLB.com's Thomas Harding that he's looking for a strike-throwing pitcher who's under team control beyond 2011. The Rockies, who have been eyeing pitching for a while, will look for deals that make sense for the team's present and long-term well-being, O'Dowd says.
- The Padres want "impact players in return for their movable pieces," tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock. The Padres' best trade chips are relievers Heath Bell and Mike Adams, though Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Harang, and Chad Qualls should draw interest.
- Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner runs through the Mariners' trade chips, led by Brandon League and Erik Bedard.
- Righty Doug Mathis is headed for Korea to play with the Samsung Lions, tweets Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. To make it official, he'll need his release from the Athletics' Triple-A club. Kurtz notes that Ryan Garko would be released from the Lions to make room.