SIERA is an estimator of what a pitcher's ERA would be with average luck, defense, and park, by looking at other pitchers with similar strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rates in recent seasons. The stat goes a step further than similar estimators by accounting for the batting average on balls in play and home run per flyball rates of similar pitchers. Here's your trade candidate SIERA leaderboard from FanGraphs, which now carries an improved version of the stat:
- Anibal Sanchez – 3.07
- Rich Harden – 3.20 (18 innings)
- Erik Bedard – 3.23
- Derek Lowe – 3.52
- Brandon McCarthy – 3.58
- Wandy Rodriguez – 3.60
- Ricky Nolasco – 3.60
- Chris Capuano – 3.61
- Edwin Jackson – 3.62
- Ubaldo Jimenez – 3.64
- Hiroki Kuroda – 3.68
- Tom Gorzelanny – 3.70
- Ted Lilly – 3.79
- Jeff Niemann – 3.92
- Brett Myers – 3.94
- John Danks – 4.05
- Aaron Harang – 4.05
- Jason Marquis – 4.08
- Livan Hernandez – 4.20
- Javier Vazquez – 4.26
- Jeff Francis – 4.26
- Jeremy Guthrie – 4.27
- Bruce Chen – 4.58
- Kyle Davies – 4.61
- Aaron Cook - 4.66 (38 2/3 innings)
There is a subjective element in choosing trade candidates – for example, it was my choice to leave off James Shields and include McCarthy. For the most part I tried to be inclusive, including players like Sanchez, Nolasco, and Jimenez even though they are unlikely to be dealt.
