Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Released
"It appears the Angels will have no choice but to release" lefty Scott Kazmir, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. That would mean eating about $7MM in remaining salary, plus a $2.5MM buyout for 2012.
GM Tony Reagins was on hand to watch Kazmir's fifth rehab start, writes DiGiovanna, and it was the lefty's fourth ugly outing. Kazmir's recovery from back stiffness has been drawn out, as he attempts to regain his old form within the 30-day rehab window. Last year, Kazmir's 5.94 ERA was the worst in the American League among those with 150 innings. Kazmir led the American League in strikeouts in 2007 as a 23-year-old, but his work has gone downhill since.
Kazmir is still only 27, so don't count him out of baseball quite yet. Perhaps another fresh start will lead to him becoming a serviceable starter in time.
As for the August trade with the Rays, the Angels sent Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres, and Matt Sweeney to Tampa Bay. Torres could be the gem of the deal, as he was ranked sixth among Rays prospects by Baseball America prior to the season.
If The Royals Become Sellers
The Royals sit at 29-37, seven games out and in fourth place in the AL Central. The offense has been respectable, but the rotation has not. GM Dayton Moore moved a couple of veterans with expiring contracts at last year's deadline in Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth; let's see who might be on the trade block this summer.
- Jeff Francis (pictured) is the team's nominal ace; he owns a 4.40 ERA in 14 starts, and his peripheral stats mostly support that ERA despite a low strikeout rate. With a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives, Francis would fit into any team's budget. However, the Royals may not be inclined to subtract him from what is already the league's worst rotation. If you're wondering about draft pick compensation, Francis is nowhere near Type B.
- Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen are both on the DL currently, though they could return within a week. Neither pitcher would really bolster a contender's rotation except perhaps at the fifth spot. At best, the Royals could try to dump their salaries at the deadline to save about $1.7MM.
- Jason Kendall is currently on the 60-day DL recovering from September shoulder surgery, so the Royals would need to clear a 40-man roster spot to activate him. He could be back in mid-July. Like Davies and Chen, the only reason to trade him is to save a little money. Backup catcher Matt Treanor could be expendable, though he won't bring much in return.
- Jeff Francoeur has some power, hitting .275/.316/.462 on the season. As an affordable player who hits lefties, Francoeur would make sense for the Phillies. The trade return would be minimal, I'd imagine, but maybe Moore could package him with Francis for some club in the vein of last year's deadline deal.
- Melky Cabrera comes with the mild incentive of being arbitration eligible after the season. He's showing good pop with a .453 slugging percentage, and makes just $1.25MM. He's also capable of playing center field.
- Wilson Betemit is useful as well, as he can play all around the infield and is hitting .289/.348/.411 on the season. He's cheap, too. The Marlins were said to be tracking him last month.
- We've covered the Athletics, Cubs, Padres, Pirates, Twins, and Astros as potential sellers previously.
Quick Hits: Connor, Andrew Miller, Tigers
A second pitching coach change occurred today, as Mark Connor resigned from the Orioles post for personal reasons. Rick Adair will take his place. Today's links…
- A couple of young pitchers were added to 40-man rosters today, as the Blue Jays added Zach Stewart in place of Kyle Drabek and the Cubs promoted Chris Carpenter in place of Casey Coleman according to ESPN's Bruce Levine. Both teams already had one open spot on the 40-man roster.
- Andrew Miller's agent Mark Rodgers implied his client will not opt out of his Red Sox contract tomorrow, in a discussion with Scott Lauber of The Boston Herald. Lauber notes that Miller has a second opt-out date on August 5th.
- Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski suggested he might look for offense at the trade deadline, talking to Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio (Twitter link). The Tigers currently rank sixth in the AL with 4.48 runs scored per game.
- Minor league infielder Matt Lawson retired, tweets MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. The Indians acquired Lawson and cash considerations from the Mariners for Aaron Laffey in March. At least they still have the cash. Laffey currently has a 1.98 ERA in 27 1/3 innings for the Mariners.
- More bad news for the Indians: pitching prospect Jason Knapp, acquired in the Cliff Lee deal, will miss the rest of the season due to shoulder surgery according to the team (Twitter link).
- An unnamed agent guesses contracts for ten prominent free agents in Jeff Passan's latest Yahoo article. The agent guessed eight years and $200MM for Prince Fielder. Meanwhile, Fielder's former Brewers teammate Bill Hall had all kinds of praise for the first baseman in this conversation with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Astros Notes: Arnsberg, Brocail, Wandy, Crane
The Astros announced today that they've relieved pitching coach Brad Arnsberg of his duties over philosophical differences, with Doug Brocail taking his place on an interim basis. The Astros' 4.69 team ERA ranks second to last in the NL this year, with Brett Myers and J.A. Happ hovering around 5.00. A few more Astros links…
- Starter Wandy Rodriguez, who had been out almost a month due to an elbow injury, returned last night against the Braves and picked up a win with six scoreless innings. Though his contract will scare away some clubs, Rodriguez would be one of the better available starters if the Astros are willing to listen at the trade deadline.
- In this Forbes article, Maury Brown takes a look at some of the more controversial aspects of Jim Crane's business dealings. Crane may officially take over the Astros on July 7th or 8th, tweeted Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle yesterday.
What Can Be Done About Super Two?
Super Two players go to arbitration four times instead of the normal three. Every year, a group of players with more than two but less than three years of service time gets to go to arbitration for the first time and score millions, while many of their peers who miss the cutoff are still earning less than $500K. The salaries build upon themselves, so it's not just a single season affected.
The cutoff varies year to year – last year Brad Ziegler was a Super Two with two years and 122 days, but typically it's over 130 days. CAA indicated in April that it could be 146 days for 2012. It is determined by calculating the top 17% in total service of those with two to three years, assuming the players had at least 86 days in the previous season. Usually if a team promotes a player in June or later he will not achieve Super Two status.
This has led to the cynical opinion of many observers that any decent prospect who makes his MLB debut in June or later is a victim of the Super Two numbers game. That's not fair to teams, as there are often good developmental reasons to give a prospect more seasoning that might not show up in the box scores. For example, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs demonstrates that the Mariners don't have Dustin Ackley in the minors because of Super Two. And as Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos pointed out, most players are optioned at least once, changing the equation. The problem is that we can only guess as to each team's motivations.
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus discusses the Super Two situation today, noting five players who could start next season in the minors for financial reasons. He says that while "players and teams alike aren't especially fond of the system," giving it up entirely would be a major concession for the players' union. An NL exec pointed out to Goldstein that you can't really eliminate the ability of teams to make service-time based decisions just by cutting out Super Two. The same concerns would just arise in April, as teams would be accused of trying to keep a player just under a full year's service time to delay arbitration. Of course, those concerns already exist in April as teams sometimes try to delay free agency by a year.
So there is something to be gained for teams and fans by eliminating Super Two, as service time debates would be limited to April. The players would need some kind of concession to give up Super Two, as every year 15-20 of them earn extra hundreds of thousands or millions because of it (even if many are later non-tendered or signed to extensions). I wonder whether the players would be open to a new proposal that benefits all young players, rather than just a small subset with the appropriate amount of service time. For example, what if the minimum salary is raised a bit more than usual to compensate for the loss of Super Two? Another possibility would be to drop the 17% qualifier to, say, 10%, creating fewer Super Two players by effectively pushing back the cutoff date. Let's hear your ideas in the comments.
Maholm Open To Extension With Pirates
Pirates lefty Paul Maholm is 11th in the National League with a 3.12 ERA, and Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette thinks an extension is in order. The southpaw's thoughts:
"I'd definitely talk to them. I said that in the spring. They control everything. They have the option. They have the ability to trade me. They have the ability to wait and see what happens. I'm not going to beg for [a new deal], but I'd be open to what they have to say. I enjoy the guys here. I enjoy the staff. The fans are great. I like the city. Why wouldn't I talk to them? I haven't heard anything from them yet and I don't know that I will. I just hope they come to me soon if they are going to do it. I don't want them to come to me the week of the trade deadline and hit me with everything right then."
Maholm is referring to his club option for 2012, which is for $9.75MM with a $750K buyout. Is Maholm worth a $9MM net price for next year? A few months ago, the option seemed like an easy choice to decline.
The question is whether Maholm's 89 1/3 innings this year represent a new level of performance. His strikeout rate is up a bit, but still below 6.0 per nine. His walk rate is near his usual level at 3.2 per nine. Groundballs are down a bit. Maholm might be getting by on the strength of less controllable factors – only 5.9% of his flyballs have left the yard, and his batting average on balls in play is just .243. Maholm's SIERA is 4.35, after a 4.58 mark last year and a 4.28 performance in '09. The lefty is good for 30 starts a year, so Cook has a point about his durability, but there's no real indication he's taken his game up a notch.
As our agency database indicates, Maholm is represented by Bo McKinnis. McKinnis already brokered one extension between Maholm and the Pirates, the January 2009 deal that bought out the pitcher's three arbitration years for $12.25MM. A new extension would cover only free agent years, and since Maholm is only 29 this month he'd have a case for a three-year deal in the $24MM range.
Maholm would like to get an extension done within the next month or so, if the Pirates are interested. But should they instead be thinking about trading him at his peak value? That depends on the front office's philosophy about the importance of getting the .500 monkey off their backs this year. Finishing above .500 would be a nice talking point in newspapers and for casual fans, but aiming for a goal like that, even after all the losing, could be detrimental to Neal Huntington's long-term plan. If the Pirates retained Octavio Dotel last year in the name of a .500 run, they wouldn't have James McDonald in their rotation now. Maybe McDonald won't pan out, but if you collect enough guys like that you'll hit on a few.
Contenders In Need Of First Base Help
As many as six contenders might aim to improve at first base as we approach the trade deadline: the Rays, Angels, Braves, Pirates, Giants, and Diamondbacks. Let's take a closer look.
- The Rays have used Casey Kotchman at first lately, and with a .335/.392/.445 line he has not disappointed. Kotchman has scuffled in 39 June plate appearances, however, and if that is a sign that he's back to the level of his previous few seasons, the Rays will need to upgrade.
- Rookie Mark Trumbo is the Angels' first baseman. He's shown some power, but a .248/.294/.454 line is subpar at the position. Russell Branyan is also in the mix.
- The Braves are using rookie Freddie Freeman, who has played fairly close to expectations at .268/.335/.416. You'd like to see more power, but the Braves might be content here.
- Pirates first baseman Lyle Overbay is hitting just .236/.305/.369. Typically the Bucs are not mentioned in posts about contenders, but at five games back they could be more buyers than sellers.
- Giants first baseman Aubrey Huff has struggled to a .234/.288/.393 line, though he's been better in June. Given his contract, the Giants will probably stick with him. Top prospect Brandon Belt could be Plan B if Huff is struggling when the rookie recovers from a broken wrist.
- The Diamondbacks have been using Juan Miranda and Xavier Nady at first base. Miranda has been solid overall, though not in June. Nady hasn't done much. Brandon Allen is an option at Triple-A.
That makes six contenders that might consider a first base upgrade, though all of them could easily stand pat. Who's available? Carlos Pena, Michael Cuddyer, Wilson Betemit, Yonder Alonso, Brad Hawpe, Juan Rivera, James Loney, Derrek Lee, Chris Davis, and Kila Ka'aihue can probably be had, but they're not clear upgrades for anyone. The best bet to be dealt might be Pena, who is hitting .250/.388/.492 since May 1st. Loney has also been better lately.
Dodgers Links: McCourt, Padilla, Carroll
The Dodgers sit at 31-37, in fourth place and seven games back in the NL West with 58% of their season remaining. They're 11th in the league with 3.93 runs scored per game. The Dodgers' starters rank eighth with a 3.82 ERA, while their relievers are dead last at 4.77. The latest links:
- Dodgers owner Frank McCourt is expected to meet payroll tomorrow, reports Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times, but he has almost no chance to make payroll on June 30th without a cash infusion. About $30MM is owed on the 30th. In theory, MLB could complete their investigation of McCourt's finances this month and Bud Selig could approve the Fox deal, saving the team for McCourt. Otherwise, Shaikin says Selig could seize the team and put it up for sale. Meanwhile, McCourt is involved in divorce settlement talks with his ex-wife Jamie.
- Righty Vicente Padilla could be out of the season due to neck surgery, Shaikin's colleague Jim Peltz learned from Dodgers manager Don Mattingly. Padilla signed for a $2MM base salary in December. He was anointed the team's closer for a brief period of time. Instead they'll continue to piece things together until perhaps Jonathan Broxton returns this month.
- How about a positive story? Yesterday Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports named Dodgers infielder Jamey Carroll one of his unlikely All-Stars. The 37-year-old is hitting .319/.383/.389 in 255 plate appearances and appears to be in line for another multiyear deal after the season.
- Recently signed righty Ian Snell joined the Dodgers' Triple-A team, writes Kirby Arnold of The Everett Herald.
White Sox Claim Leyson Septimo
The White Sox claimed lefty Leyson Septimo off waivers from the Diamondbacks and optioned him to Double-A, tweets the team. As the team with the fewest players on their 40-man roster (36) the Sox had plenty of room to make the addition. Meanwhile, Arizona's 40-man count drops to 38.
Septimo, 25, has a 6.37 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 7.6 BB/9, and 0.3 HR/9 in 29 2/3 relief innings at Double-A this year. Prior to the 2010 season, Baseball America ranked Septimo 26th among Diamondbacks prospects. The former outfielder was converted to the mound after the '07 season and can touch triple digits with his fastball, according to BA. The White Sox currently have a position player conversion success story in their own bullpen, closer Sergio Santos.
If The Athletics Become Sellers
Having lost 12 of their last 13 games, the A's are eight games back in the AL West. It's time to discuss their potential trade offerings.
- David DeJesus has been playing right field in recent years, but he has plenty of experience at the other outfield positions. At .239/.319/.373 in 236 plate appearances, his contract year has not gone as hoped. He did hit well in May. DeJesus is affordable at $6MM, and will appeal to any contender seeking a top of the order outfielder who bats left-handed. Our latest Elias rankings have DeJesus on the cusp of Type A status in the AL, but I'm not sure the A's would offer him arbitration.
- Second baseman Mark Ellis is on the DL with a strained right hamstring. His $6MM salary will be prohibitive unless he starts raking upon his return. With Jemile Weeks and Scott Sizemore joining Oakland's second base mix, shopping Ellis makes sense if he gets healthy.
- Left fielder Josh Willingham is another $6MM Athletic. At .235/.315/.423, he's having the worst year of his career as he heads toward free agency. Willingham is more firmly a Type A free agent than DeJesus, and given how the free agent market values power an arbitration offer seems more feasible for him. Willingham should be one of the better available right-handed bats.
- The A's could break up their entire starting outfield, as Coco Crisp ($5.75MM salary) is also an impending free agent. Like Willingham, Crisp is helping some fantasy teams offensively but is not getting on base thus far. Crisp's ability to play center field sets him apart. The Braves are often mentioned as a potential fit.
- Hideki Matsui might be tough to move, as a DH hitting .216/.268/.332. If he doesn't show signs of life over the next six weeks, a release is more likely than a trade.
- First baseman/outfielder Conor Jackson could be a complementary piece for someone if the A's assume part of his $3.2MM salary. Jackson can still get on base a little bit but his modest early-career power seems gone.
- Relievers are always a trade deadline hot commodity, and Oakland's pen has a 3.25 ERA despite their leading innings guy, Brian Fuentes, checking in at 4.71. The A's might have a chance to bail on Fuentes' contract, which pays $5MM next year. Their other big relief signing, Grant Balfour, has produced better results despite shaky control; he earns $4MM in 2012. Both relievers have club options for '13. Michael Wuertz, who has been excellent, has a club option for '12 and a more modest salary. The A's could also consider moving a pair of arbitration eligible relievers in Craig Breslow and Brad Ziegler.
- We've covered the Cubs, Padres, Pirates, Twins, and Astros as potential sellers previously.