Arbitration Eligible Players For 2012
As part of the process for the 2012 Contract Issues series I determined the players projected to be eligible for arbitration for each team. Right now about 230 players project to be arbitration eligible, but a good 60 of them will probably be released, demoted, or non-tendered, so focus on the bigger names. Click below to see the current list.
2012 Contract Issues: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (6)
- J.D. Drew owns a line of .268/.376/.468 in 2,243 plate appearances as a member of the Red Sox. Drew has provided value, but he'll be 36 in November and his power is declining. In March he talked about retirement as a possibility. There's a good chance the Red Sox look outside the organization for a replacement.
- Designated hitter David Ortiz had been a slow starter since 2008, but he was decent in April this year and has been killing it in May. Ortiz wants to finish his career with the Red Sox, but Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote in March that the team is "itching to abandon a full-time DH and initiate a rotation at that position." Last offseason the decision on Ortiz's option was entirely in the team's hands, but this winter he could field offers elsewhere, especially if the Sox remain reluctant to guarantee two years.
- Closer Jonathan Papelbon has been dominant, with an 11.8 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 20 2/3 innings. Daniel Bard has been solid, but other possible late-inning holdovers like Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler have not. Papelbon would be a big loss, but in free agency he figures to seek at least a three-year deal in the $36MM range. In March, Papelbon told Rosenthal it's "50-50" and "a tossup" that he will remain in Boston.
- Mike Cameron has served mainly as Drew's platoon partner this year, appearing in 15 games overall. Cameron hinted to WEEI's Alex Speier that he hasn't ruled out retirement after the season, but now is not the time for that decision.
- Catcher Jason Varitek told MLB.com's Ian Browne in February he wants to play into his 40s, so he'll probably re-sign as Boston's backup if they'll have him.
- Tim Wakefield replaced John Lackey in the rotation, though Lackey may come off the DL on June 5th. Wakefield's stance on retiring after the season seems to have softened, given comments made in October, December, and January. The active career wins leader by a long shot, Wakefield is only six from 200.
Contract Options (2)
- Marco Scutaro: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout. Scutaro is often mentioned as a trade candidate. His club seems likely to decline their end of the option. In that case Scutaro may prefer to take the buyout and have the flexibility to choose his team.
- Dan Wheeler: $3MM+ vesting option. Wheeler has struggled this year in terms of home runs and hits allowed, but his 2012 option vests with 53 more appearances. A May stint on the disabled list probably means he'll be a free agent after the season.
Arbitration Eligible (9)
- First time: Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, Scott Atchison, Jed Lowrie, Franklin Morales
- Second time: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rich Hill
- Third time: Matt Albers
Bard, Lowrie, Ellsbury, and Saltalamacchia are the biggest cases here, though the Sox may end up tendering contracts to all but Atchison. I'll put the group as a whole around $14MM.
2012 Payroll Obligation
Boston's 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $126.934MM including Scutaro's buyout. Throw in $14MM for arbitration eligibles, and we're about $23MM shy of this year's payroll before accounting for minimum salary players. Possible needs include right field, designated hitter, the rotation, and the bullpen. It would be hard to add premium players in free agency to fill these needs if the flexibility is around $23MM in 2012 salaries.
Of course, the Red Sox do not calculate payroll in the simplistic way I just did. Perhaps no team does, but Boston's payroll requires extra maneuvering because of the luxury tax. Still, the use of AAVs instead of salaries again puts the Sox around $125MM in commitments before arbitration eligibles are accounted for. I think the Red Sox will have to raise payroll or backload the contract if they are to get involved on, say, C.C. Sabathia. Perhaps instead of free agency the Red Sox will lean toward trades, where the main expenditure would be prospects rather than money.
Yankees Notes: Soriano, Colon
After a rousing come-from-behind win last night, the Yankees are atop the AL East by a half game. The latest on the club:
- A third MRI on Rafael Soriano's elbow has prompted the Yankees to send the pricey reliever to see Dr. James Andrews, report Mark Feinsand and Sean Brennan of the New York Daily News. The writers note that this marks Soriano's sixth elbow-related DL stint; he's a survivor of Tommy John surgery and ulnar nerve transposition surgery. I'm not sure what surgeries are left, but the decision by Hal and Hank Steinbrenner and Randy Levine to overrule GM Brian Cashman on this signing is looking bad. If the team's bullpen depth is compromised due to the Soriano injury, Cashman might be forced to throw more money and/or prospects at the situation.
- A baseball official reviewed video of the procedures done on Bartolo Colon's elbow and shoulder, physician Leonel Liriano told Marc Carig of the Newark Star-Ledger. "I feel that they know that everything is good," remarked Liriano. MLB has been concerned that Colon's stem cell therapy could have involved the use of HGH.
- Our 2012 contract issues entry for the Yankees was published a week ago, check it out. Many key players have unresolved contract situations.
- Our post on each team's draft picks reveals that the Yankees are one of 14 teams with two picks within the first 90. The Yankees will sit out until pick #51 overall, the longest wait for any team aside from the Tigers. The draft is less than two weeks away.
Marlins Designate Jay Buente For Assignment
The Marlins designated righty Jay Buente for assignment to open a spot on the 25-man roster for Steve Cishek, tweets Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post. The move leaves the Marlins with 39 players on the 40-man roster.
Buente, 27, posted a 1.94 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.2 HR/9 in 41 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, including five starts. He spent most of 2010 in relief, posting a 10.0 K/9 across three levels. Buente was a fifth-round pick of the Marlins in 2007.
Hideki Okajima Clears Waivers
Red Sox lefty Hideki Okajima cleared waivers and accepted a Triple-A assignment, tweets Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Okajima had been designated for assignment on Thursday to clear a spot for Franklin Morales.
As WEEI's Alex Speier noted four days ago, Okajima has had a rough year but does not regret re-signing with the Red Sox in January.
Alex Cintron Retires
Infielder Alex Cintron has retired, tweets Padres Triple-A broadcaster Tim Hagerty. Cintron had signed a minor league deal with the Padres earlier this month after a brief stint in the Nationals organization.
Cintron, 32, finishes with a .275/.313/.394 line in 2,217 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Orioles, and Nationals. He played shortstop, second base, and third base. Cintron's best season was with the 2003 D'Backs, when he hit .317/.359/.489 with 13 home runs. The Puerto Rico native earned over $4MM in his big league career, according to Baseball Reference.
Fred Wilpon On Payroll, Reyes, Beltran, Minaya
Fred Wilpon's media blitz was actually a two-part plan. Jeffrey Toobin's article in The New Yorker was the big story Monday morning, mainly because the Mets owner was so candid about his players and team. As informative as that article was, SI's Tom Verducci has more from an interview conducted with Wilpon last week.
- The Mets are "bleeding cash," possibly $70MM this year according to Wilpon.
- Wilpon talked about investing $100MM properly, an indication that the 2012 payroll may drop about 30% to that level. This isn't a surprise; I wrote on May 2nd that a $100MM payroll next year would still give GM Sandy Alderson around $20MM to play with before accounting for minimum salary players. So while Wilpon confirmed that the Mets are not likely to reinvest the money coming off the payroll after the season, it would have been nice if someone asked him how they'd handle a potential $10MM+ saved if veterans are traded during the season.
- Verducci says the Mets "have studied the success of the Boston Red Sox in letting top veterans play out their contracts and taking the compensatory draft picks," and would only trade Jose Reyes if they receive a first-round type talent who is close to the Majors, similar to when the Athletics acquired Brett Wallace for Matt Holliday. Does this mean the Mets won't consider trades built around top prospects who are not big league ready, such as the Giants' Zack Wheeler?
- On the Reyes topic, Wilpon said, "I know there's a great question about whether we can keep the shortstop, so we're preparing for that if that should happen." He admitted that Carlos Beltran "will be elsewhere" and the Mets hope Fernando Martinez could fill his shoes. Of Martinez, Wilpon said, "He's fragile, but he can hit."
- The Mets' new investor will be treated as a partner and will have some say, even though Fred Wilpon will remain the team's designated "control person" and Jeff Wilpon will remain the COO.
- On former GM Omar Minaya, Wilpon said, "It was painful to see what Omar did to himself. Why did he do that?" I'm not sure what Wilpon is referring to specifically here.
The Offseason Closer Market
I've seen some talk about the 2011-12 offseason featuring a strong free agent market for closers. However, it's possible the strength of this class has been overstated. Let's take a look.
- Heath Bell: Bell has yet to allow a home run this year in 17 innings, and he's generally pitching well. However, he's typically been good for at least a strikeout per inning and this year he's down to 6.3 per nine. That's come with an increase in groundballs, but if the lack of strikeouts continues it will have to give some teams pause before committing big bucks to a 34-year-old.
- Jonathan Broxton: Broxton has relative youth on his side, but he lost his closing job again and his numbers are lousy across the board. He's currently on the DL with an elbow injury and may have to take a one-year deal to rebuild value.
- Matt Capps: Capps has never been a top-shelf closer. He's showing fantastic control this year, but otherwise his strikeout rate is dangerously low and he's allowing tons of flyballs (and as you'd expect, home runs). He's blown four saves already; only one other closer (Craig Kimbrel) has done that without being ousted from the role.
- Francisco Cordero: Cordero has a $12MM club option the Reds figure to decline, even though the 36-year-old has a 1.77 ERA. He's improved his typically poor control and added groundballs, but like several other closers it's come at the cost of strikeouts. In general, teams figure to be reluctant to commit $8MM+ salaries and multiple years to relievers in their mid-30s who don't strike people out.
- Frank Francisco: Francisco's season began with a DL stint for tightness in his right pectoral muscle and inflammation in his biceps. That's a concern for a pitcher with a lengthy injury history. He's got his usual huge strikeout rate, but he's walked eight and allowed four home runs in 12 1/3 innings so far.
- Ryan Franklin: Four blown saves got him replaced as the Cardinals' closer, and he may not return to that role for any team.
- Brad Lidge: Lidge has a $12.5MM club option that will surely be declined. He's rehabbing a shoulder injury and could make his 2011 debut in June. Lidge probably won't close upon his return, unless something happens to Ryan Madson.
- Joe Nathan: Nathan's return from Tommy John surgery has not been smooth sailing, and he's another former great closer certain to have a big club option declined. So far his customary control has been missing. Like Broxton and Lidge, he'd do well to take a one-year deal and rack up 40 saves somewhere.
- Jonathan Papelbon: Quietly, Papelbon is having one of the best statistical seasons of his career. If he can put 2010 in the rearview, maybe he can challenge Nathan's relief record $47MM contract.
- Francisco Rodriguez: Though he's on pace, I still can't see the Mets allowing K-Rod's 2011 option for $17.5MM to vest with 55 games finished. The Mets could eat some salary and trade Rodriguez to a team for which he would not close. Of course, that team would be taking on a risk in that they might have little recourse but to turn to K-Rod to close if their ninth inning guy falters or gets hurt. K-Rod still whiffs a batter per inning with questionable control, but this year he boasts the best groundball rate of his career by far. His average fastball velocity is down to 90.4 miles per hour.
- Rafael Soriano: Perhaps he's unhappy as a setup man, but there's no way he opts out after a season that included an elbow injury and lousy numbers (so far). Soriano must choose between $25MM over the 2012-13 seasons or free agency and a $1.5MM buyout.
- Jose Valverde: His fastball is down a tick, but he is 11-for-11 in save chances. I imagine the Tigers will exercise his $9MM club option.
- Kyle Farnsworth: Farnsworth's customary strikeouts are missing, but he's got a fantastic 62.5% groundball rate. Did all the closers have a meeting about this? Farnsworth is fixing his reputation by going nine for ten in save opportunities, and the Rays will probably exercise his $3.3MM option.
- Ryan Madson: Thrust into the closer role with Lidge and Jose Contreras unavailable, Madson is nine for nine in save chances and has allowed one run in 19 innings. His peripherals are strong, including a career-best 62.8% groundball rate. This Scott Boras client is also mending his reputation and may jockey with Papelbon for the biggest contract for any reliever this winter.
- Vicente Padilla: He snagged a couple of save chances with Broxton unavailable, but is back on the DL with pain in his surgically-repaired forearm. Fun fact: Padilla's Major League debut in 1999 with the Diamondbacks was a save situation, but Greg Vaughn, Barry Larkin, Eddie Taubensee, and Aaron Boone got the best of him. We'll see whether Padilla can come back strong and remain the Dodgers' closer this year.
There are strong options here, though we all know the fickle nature of relievers. This closing class is weaker than expected given the poor pitching of Broxton, Capps, Franklin, and Nathan. Papelbon and Madson represent the best combinations of age, success, and strikeouts.
Chicago Notes: Montanez, Sox Rotation
Both Chicago teams are struggling this year. The White Sox sit at 22-27, 10 games out in the division and 4.5 back in the wild card. The 20-25 Cubs are seven games out in their division and six out in the wild card. Combined payrolls: about $262MM. On to the links:
- Outfielder Lou Montanez will have his contract purchased by the Cubs, Iowa manager Bill Dancy told Rick Brown of the Des Moines Register. Montanez, 29, was the third overall pick for the Cubs in 2000 as a shortstop. He became an outfielder in 2004, and after a stint with the Orioles signed a minor league deal to return to the Cubs in January. As Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald notes, the Cubs will have to create a 40-man roster spot for Montanez, perhaps by moving Andrew Cashner or Brian Schlitter to the 60-day DL. The team would also have to open a spot on the 25-man roster, and ESPN's Bruce Levine speculates that that could be accomplished by putting Matt Garza on the DL.
- The White Sox will likely bump someone from their six-man rotation after the current road trip, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Bumping Phil Humber might create the fewest waves, since he's the only starter earning less than $5MM. However, he has the best ERA of the group and the Sox are talking about doing what's best for the team because some starters can't pitch with eight days rest. It'd be very interesting to see John Danks or Edwin Jackson moved to the bullpen, as Danks has a big arbitration raise coming and Jackson will be a free agent.
- You can follow MLBTR's Cubs rumors via Facebook, Twitter, and RSS. Check out MLBTR's Sox rumors via Facebook, Twitter, and RSS as well.
Tigers Designate Robbie Weinhardt For Assignment
The Tigers designated righty reliever Robbie Weinhardt for assignment to create room on the 40-man roster for lefty Adam Wilk, according to the team. Wilk takes the spot of Phil Coke on the 25-man roster, as Coke hit the DL with a right foot bone bruise.
Weinhardt, 25, had an 8.80 ERA in 15 1/3 Triple-A relief innings this year after posting a 1.57 mark in 34 1/3 frames at the level in 2010. Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Weinhardt 12th among Tigers prospects, 15 spots ahead of Wilk. To put that in perspective, BA ranked the Tigers' farm system 25th overall. BA says Weinhardt uses a near-sidearm delivery to generate groundballs with his sinking fastball, and also employs a slider.