Quick Hits: Hanrahan, Jackson, Blue Jays
Links for Wednesday, as Seattle's Michael Pineda prepares to continue his Rookie of the Year bid against the Orioles…
- Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan noted his daily readership of MLBTR in an interview at the MLB Fan Cave yesterday. Said Hanrahan, "[MLBTR] provides updates for all the transactions in one quick place. I go on there on my phone all the time, because you find out about any deals and transactions. I’m definitely an active reader of that site, but other than that, I don’t really read too many other baseball websites." We're honored to have Joel among the many players who read MLBTR; give him a follow on Twitter here.
- Tip of the cap to White Sox righty Edwin Jackson, who explained to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he'll accept bullpen duty if the team decides to remove him from the rotation. The Scott Boras client has a team-first attitude despite his impending free agency.
- Blue Jays righty Dustin McGowan has endured two shoulder surgeries since he last appeared in the Majors in July of '08, but Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports his rehab went well in May and the Jays are now considering using him as a starter again. In other good news for the Jays, top prospect Brett Lawrie tweeted late last night that his hand is only bruised after being hit by a pitch. Prior to that pitch, Lawrie had been slated to make his big league debut Friday.
- Jack Zduriencik's smaller acquisitions are looking good for the Mariners, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. For a look back at our Mariners offseason in review, click here.
If The Cubs Become Sellers
At 23-30, the Cubs are 8.5 games back in the NL Central and eight back in the wild card. Their chance of making the playoffs is 1.1%, according to Baseball Prospectus. The team's front office has to start thinking about a potentially huge offseason and how they can improve and free up even more cash for 2012. Which Cubs might be available this summer?
- Alfonso Soriano, currently on the DL with a strained left quad, always has to be presumed available. The 35-year-old left fielder is showing good pop, but with a walk rate down to 3.2% he's a one-trick pony. He earns $18MM per year through 2014, a contract I'd probably deem immovable if the Blue Jays hadn't managed to send Vernon Wells packing. Soriano has a full no-trade clause.
- Also close to immovable is righty Carlos Zambrano, who earns about $18MM this year and next. He's pitched OK, with a reduced strikeout rate but the best control of his career. Pitching is always coveted at the trade deadline, but the Cubs would need Zambrano's consent to make a deal.
- Third baseman Aramis Ramirez has been healthy this season but his power has been missing. He earns $14.6MM this year and his $16MM option for 2012 vests upon a trade. He also has full no-trade rights. A trade could be worked out if Ramirez displays power over the next six weeks or so, consents to a trade, and waives the '12 option. Stranger things have happened.
- Outfielder Kosuke Fukudome has trade protection as well. At .432 he has the fourth-best OBP in the National League, though he has only six extra-base hits. He could help a lot of teams, but is known for his fast starts and has a troublesome $13.5MM salary.
- Starter Ryan Dempster saw his ERA top out at 9.58 on April 28th. He then turned in a 3.08 mark in May. Dempster has a $14MM player option for 2012 with no buyout. This is a tricky one – he could get more total dollars and years on the open market, but he has a strong relationship with the Cubs and he wouldn't find a $14MM salary. Dempster must approve any trade.
- First baseman Carlos Pena had an awful April, but smacked seven home runs in May. He's earning $10MM on a one-year deal and could be one of the better bats available.
- Southpaw John Grabow is earning $4.8MM this year. He hasn't been anything special against lefties and hasn't been used as a specialist. He'd be hard to move.
- Reliever Kerry Wood has been decent this year and would be a popular trade deadline target. However, he took a big discount to come back to Chicago at $1.5MM, so he'll probably only be dealt if that's his preference.
- Extra outfielder Reed Johnson is having a strong year in a limited sample, but he's on the DL due to back spasms. If healthy, the Cubs figure to be open to moving him.
- The Cubs have a lot of overpaid, somewhat useful players. Guys like Dempster and Pena could generate a lot of interest, but in general GM Jim Hendry would have to assume salary to have another active trade deadline. The Cubs were willing to eat $4.2MM in salary to move Derrek Lee, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Theriot last year. Would Hendry resist another fire sale, knowing that those moves could be his last as Cubs GM? Would the Cubs install someone else to conduct the proceedings, as the Diamondbacks did last year?
- We've covered the Padres, Pirates, Twins, and Astros as potential sellers as well.
Rosenthal On Betemit, Reds, Indians
The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- The Marlins are "among the teams tracking" Royals third baseman Wilson Betemit. The 29-year-old is a free agent after the season and has hit .303/.378/.488 in 492 plate appearances in his Royals career. Betemit is earning only $1MM, so any team could fit him in. He has experience all around the infield and has dabbled at the outfield corners as well. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith discussed his trade candidacy earlier this month.
- "There is not a lot of pitching to be had. It would be tough to get anyone if we do need someone," remarked Reds GM Walt Jocketty to Rosenthal. The Reds' rotation has been surprisingly lousy this year, but Travis Wood, Bronson Arroyo, and Mike Leake are not as bad as their cumulative 5.33 ERA suggests.
- Orlando Cabrera's impact is "very difficult to quantify," Indians GM Chris Antonetti tells Rosenthal. You have to wonder if O-Cab could provide the same intangibles off the bench, allowing the Tribe to start Cord Phelps or Jason Kipnis at second base.
2012 Contract Issues Series
The 2012 Contract Issues series is complete. Below are links to our posts for each team, as well as a brief summary of what they face after the season. Please take the estimated 2012 payroll flexibility numbers with a large grain of salt, because those figures involve me making assumptions on arbitration awards, options, and payrolls and do not reflect possible trades.
AL East
- Orioles: Slew of veteran free agents in Vlad, Derrek Lee, Mike Gonzalez, Hardy. Jones, Guthrie, Scott due big arb raises. Could have $18MM+ to spend.
- Red Sox: Major free agents include Drew, Ortiz, and Papelbon. Ellsbury is biggest arb case. Plenty of needs but only $23MM in estimated payroll flexibility, and must deal with luxury tax.
- Yankees: Have to decide whether to re-sign Colon and/or Garcia; rotation will face huge uncertainty in likely event Sabathia opts out. Tough option decision on Swisher; Cashman could have $50MM to work with if declined.
- Rays: Record-setting arb case for Price; arb raise due to Upton. Retaining all option and arb eligible players would require a payroll increase; major creativity required here.
- Blue Jays: Club options on three relievers plus Hill; notable arb cases in Escobar and Morrow. Should have $24MM+ to spend.
AL Central
- White Sox: Rotation questions with Buehrle and Jackson due for free agency; also Pierre. Solid arb raises due to Danks and Quentin; $13MM to spend unless payroll is raised or there's a trade.
- Indians: Options on Sizemore and Carmona; big arb cases for Masterson, Choo, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera. Retaining all key players would bring them to '11 payroll level, but playoff run would create some flexibility.
- Tigers: Estimated $13MM in flexibility unless payroll is raised. Scherzer in line for large raise as first-time arb player.
- Royals: Opening Day rotation may be mostly replaced by top prospects; solid stopgaps Betemit and Francoeur up for free agency also. Arb raise due to Gordon; sticky situation with affordable Soria option. Could easily find $40MM+ to spend this offseason.
- Twins: Five regular players hitting free agency; arb decisions due on Liriano and Young. Estimated $30MM to spend but lots of needs.
AL West
- Angels: Pineiro is biggest free agent; nice arb raise due to Kendrick and possibly a historic one to Weaver. Should still have $24MM to spend.
- Athletics: Likely that 60% of team's regular position players reach free agency. Large arb class headed by Gio Gonzalez and Bailey. Might have $17MM to spend but lots of openings.
- Mariners: Bedard is most notable free agent; pitchers Vargas and League due arb raises. Should have $20MM+ to spend.
- Rangers: Crucial free agent in C.J. Wilson, and expensive arb raises coming for Cruz, Napoli, and others. No payroll flexibility even without Wilson unless payroll is raised significantly.
NL East
- Braves: Notable arb case for Jurrjens; could have $15MM to put toward tinkering. More available if a starter is dealt.
- Marlins: Disappointing free agents in Vazquez, Infante. Anibal Sanchez, Leo Nunez biggest arb cases. Would have less than $10MM to spend with $70MM payroll.
- Mets: Reyes, Beltran, and possibly K-Rod up for free agency if either is still around at season's end. Solid arb raise due to Pelfrey. Would have $20MM to play with even with a drop to a $100MM payroll; future of franchise hinges on Picard lawsuit.
- Phillies: Rollins, Madson are key free agents; Oswalt has mutual option. Massive arb raise due for Hamels; could still have $38MM to spend.
- Nationals: Limited flexibility once decent arb class is accounted for, until the team gets a payroll bump.
NL Central
- Cubs: Fukudome, Pena, Ramirez likely to depart as free agents; Dempster has player option. Notable arb cases for Soto, Garza. Even with Dempster they'd have over $60MM to spend if payroll is maintained, opening up possibility for big offseason led by bidding on Pujols or Fielder.
- Reds: Option on Phillips; less than $10MM to spend if he's retained.
- Astros: Big arb cases in Pence and Bourn; would leave less than $10MM to spend unless Crane raises payroll to previous levels.
- Brewers: Expected to lose Fielder; big arb raise coming for Marcum. May have only $10-15MM to spend.
- Pirates: Lots of club options, most will be declined. Morton, Hanrahan up for arb; should have at least $25MM to spend.
- Cardinals: Free agent monsters in Pujols and Berkman plus a tough option decision on Carpenter. Rasmus, Garcia enter arb. Declining Carp would give about $26MM to spend, most of which would have to go to Pujols.
NL West
- Diamondbacks: Kelly Johnson a free agent; Saunders a non-tender candidate. Should have over $20MM to spend.
- Rockies: No big free agent or arb cases. Could have around $12MM to spend.
- Dodgers: Kuroda eligible for free agency and uncertainty in the infield. Large raises due for Kershaw, Kemp, and Ethier in arb; Loney may be non-tendered. Maintaining payroll could leave $37MM to spend, though that could be reduced assuming ownership remains in flux.
- Padres: Veteran free agents: Bell, Ludwick, Harang, Hawpe, Qualls. Adams, Gregerson, Stauffer lead a large arb group. Arb paydays could leave less than $10MM to spend.
- Giants: Ground-breaking arb case for Lincecum; Sandoval and Sanchez also eligible. Even with several position players up for free agency, payroll flexibility appears to be under $10MM.
Keith Law’s Updated Top 25 Prospects
ESPN's Keith Law has updated his top 25 prospect list, four months after publishing his top 100. You'll need Insider to view these articles. I can vouch that it's a good investment. A few notes:
- Eight members of Law's offseason top 25 are not in his current top 25 because they are in the Majors: Domonic Brown (#3 in February), Eric Hosmer (5), Zach Britton (11), Kyle Drabek (13), Jeremy Hellickson (14), Aroldis Chapman (15), Brandon Belt (17), and Michael Pineda (21).
- 11 players moved into the top 25. Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez made the biggest leap, from #52 to #25. Brett Lawrie, Anthony Rizzo, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jarred Cosart, and Manny Machado also climbed at least 16 spots.
- Aaron Hicks, Mike Moustakas, and Tyler Matzek fell out of Law's top 25 despite eight openings being created by players graduating to the Majors.
- Mike Trout and Bryce Harper maintained their #1-2 rankings as the best prospects in baseball.
40-Man Roster Counts
A look at how many players each team currently has on its 40-man roster:
AL East
- Orioles: 40
- Red Sox: 40
- Yankees: 39
- Rays: 40
- Blue Jays: 40
AL Central
- White Sox: 37
- Indians: 40
- Tigers: 40
- Royals: 40
- Twins: 40
AL West
- Angels: 37
- Athletics: 40
- Mariners: 40
- Rangers: 40
NL East
- Braves: 36
- Marlins: 40
- Mets: 40
- Phillies: 39
- Nationals: 38
NL Central
- Cubs: 39
- Reds 40
- Astros: 40
- Brewers: 40
- Pirates: 40
- Cardinals: 39
NL West
- Diamondbacks: 40
- Rockies: 39
- Dodgers: 40
- Padres: 40
- Giants: 40
Updated: 3-8-12 at 2:59pm
If The Diamondbacks Become Buyers
Remember back on May 16th, when I wrote a post about what might happen if the Diamondbacks become trade deadline sellers? They lost that day, then promptly won 13 of 14 games. The first-place D'Backs are a half-game ahead of the Giants, and ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that they'll be aggressive before the trade deadline and are poised to spend.
Starting pitching could be considered a need for the D'Backs. Their starters have a cumulative 4.20 ERA, which ranks 12th in the National League. The rotation is led by Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson. Southpaw Joe Saunders has struggled, and despite an improved ERA in May his peripheral stats suggest his 4.77 ERA might not get much better. Still, I think he'll remain in the rotation.
After those three it's Zach Duke and rookie Josh Collmenter. Duke was excellent in his Saturday season debut and should have a fairly long leash in the rotation. Collmenter has pitched well in three of four starts. Right now GM Kevin Towers is probably thinking if it ain't broke he won't fix it, and obvious upgrades will be hard to come by on the trade market. Back on May 11th, when Collmenter joined the rotation, Towers told Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic that his first choice is to look in-house, but they're exploring external options as well. He's got two full months prior to the trade deadline to determine the staying power of the current starting five.
Arizona's bullpen has been strong this year, but Towers should be proactive in adding reinforcements. The pen is built around J.J. Putz and David Hernandez. Putz must be handled with care – he hasn't pitched three days in a row since August of last year. And while Hernandez has been a big addition, walking 5.9 batters per nine innings is rarely a sustainable approach. Sam Demel and Juan Gutierrez are on the DL and Collmenter is in the rotation, leaving Joe Paterson, Esmerling Vasquez, Aaron Heilman, Zach Kroenke, and Micah Owings to round out the pen. Paterson and Vasquez have been useful, but this bullpen could use more depth.
Offensively the Diamondbacks are strong; they rank third in the league with 4.78 runs per game. Of course, you can never score too many runs, so Towers could consider left field upgrades if he'd like to push Gerardo Parra to a fourth outfielder role. But if Towers wants to swap defense for offense in left field, he can just call up Wily Mo Pena.
A team that is "poised to spend" would match up well with the Mets, who have useful but expensive players in Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez. The Twins are another likely seller with several players who would fit with Arizona. Towers is in a good position – his team's needs are not desperate, and if he can take on salary that will set him apart from many other buyers.
2012 Contract Issues: Minnesota Twins
The Twins conclude our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (4)
- Michael Cuddyer hasn't been especially productive since 2009, so retaining him only makes sense at a drastic pay cut from this year's $10.5MM salary.
- Though the Twins' 2012 bullpen is even less settled than their current one, investing in Matt Capps as the anchor might not be the best move. He figures to look to at least match this year's $7MM salary on a multiyear deal.
- Jason Kubel is among a handful of Twins having a solid year. He's affordable too, giving him decent trade value. Kubel could find his way to Type A status, and an arbitration offer would be justified, so the Twins may prefer to sort out his situation after the season.
- Jim Thome is seven home runs from 600 and probably would not be traded before reaching that milestone. Since he wouldn't fetch a ton anyway, the best course may be to keep him unless he prefers to play for a contender.
Contract Options (1)
- Joe Nathan: $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout. Perhaps Nathan will want to continue his Twins career, but it won't be by way of this option.
Arbitration Eligible (9)
- First time: Jose Mijares, Matt Tolbert, Phil Dumatrait
- Second time: Kevin Slowey, Alexi Casilla, Glen Perkins
- Third time: Francisco Liriano, Jason Repko
- Fourth time: Delmon Young
A few of these players won't make it past the non-tender deadline. The big cases belong to Young, Liriano, and Slowey. Young's terrible season could earn him a non-tender, or else a modest raise to the $6.5MM range. I can't picture Liriano being non-tendered, as his salary could sit around $5MM. Slowey, the most likely to be dealt, could come in around $3.5MM. Perkins and Mijares also seem likely to be tendered contracts. In total I'll put the group around $17MM, though several of these players could wind up on other teams by December.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Twins' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $65.75MM. Throw in $17MM for arbitration eligibles and we're around $83MM, about $30MM shy of this year's payroll before accounting for minimum salary players. The Twins could shed millions more through trades or non-tenders. I imagine they'll be built to contend for 2012, which should mean expenditures on the bullpen, outfield, middle infield, third base, and designated hitter.
Rays Claim Jay Buente; Designate Rob Delaney
The Rays claimed righty Jay Buente off waivers from the Marlins and created a 40-man roster spot by designating pitcher Rob Delaney for assignment, tweets The Tampa Tribune. The Rays then optioned Buente to Triple-A.
Buente was designated for assignment yesterday by the Marlins to clear a spot on the active roster for Steve Cishek. The 27-year-old posted a 1.94 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.2 HR/9 in 41 2/3 Triple-A innings this year, including five starts. He spent most of 2010 in relief, posting a 10.0 K/9 across three levels. Buente was a fifth-round pick of the Marlins in 2007.
The Rays claimed Delaney off waivers from the Twins in late January. The 26-year-old right-handed reliever had been optioned to Triple-A on Friday to open a spot for J.P. Howell. In recent years he's posted big strikeout rates at Triple-A, though he allowed ten home runs in 80 frames last year. Baseball America ranked him 24th among Twins prospects prior to the 2009 season, noting that Delaney does not throw particularly hard but his fastball has excellent sink and he has above-average command.
2012 Contract Issues: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (5)
- Carlos Guillen had knee surgery in September, and coupled with recent back tightness there's no timetable for his 2011 debut. It's safe to say the Tigers will be moving on.
- Magglio Ordonez is on the DL for right ankle weakness. Surgery on that ankle ended his 2010 season in July. His '11 season is too much of an unknown to make any predictions for '12.
- Brad Penny has already topped last year's nine starts, though his peripheral stats suggest an ERA close to 5.00. I imagine Penny will keep getting chances.
- Joel Zumaya had exploratory elbow surgery this month and may not return this season. The Tigers won't be re-signing the hard-throwing righty, wrote SI's Jon Heyman.
- Utility infielder Ramon Santiago is also eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (1)
- Jose Valverde: $9MM club option with no buyout. Should the closer's success continue, the Tigers will probably exercise his option.
Arbitration Eligible (6)
- First time: Rick Porcello, Brad Thomas, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Ryan Perry, Don Kelly
- Second time: None
- Third time: None
Porcello, Scherzer, Coke, and Perry are the significant cases. Porcello has a cheap club option for '12, though I imagine he can and will choose arbitration instead. Scherzer has built a strong resume, and while he's not in Clayton Kershaw/David Price territory he could get $4MM. Porcello, starting from a higher salary than most pitchers, could reach the same level. Coke and Perry should be more affordable. In total I'll estimate $11MM for the four.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Tigers' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $73.875MM. Add in Valverde and the arbitration eligibles and they're around $94MM, $13MM shy of the 2011 payroll before accounting for minimum salary players. The Tigers' payroll has topped $130MM a couple of times, so there might be additional flexibility.