Olney On Reyes, Crisp, Braves
The latest from ESPN's Buster Olney…
- The Mets must avoid diminishing or marginalizing GM Sandy Alderson, writes Olney. A source told the ESPN scribe, "If he gets some space, there is a lot of potential for great things to happen."
- The Mets have not engaged Jose Reyes' agent Peter Greenberg in contract talks, reports Olney. Mets owner Fred Wilpon told Jeffrey Toobin of The New Yorker on April 20th that Reyes "thinks he's going to get Carl Crawford money," but Olney's source says Wilpon isn't in a position to know what Reyes wants. Perhaps Wilpon simply heard the Crawford comparison via the rumor mill.
- Olney feels that center fielder Coco Crisp "would be in the shop window" if the Athletics look to move pieces. Crisp, 31, is hitting .278/.308/.420 in 170 plate appearances on the season and earns $5.75MM. Still, even after dropping six in a row the A's are only three games back in their division.
- Olney speculates that Crisp would be a natural fit for the Braves, who will employ Jordan Schafer in center field while Nate McLouth is on the DL. Right fielder Jason Heyward is also on the DL. Olney says the Braves would love to add a leadoff hitter, something Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote about on May 16th.
2012 Contract Issues: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (11)
- Starter Hiroki Kuroda, 36, is rolling along with another strong season. I'm guessing the Dodgers will have another shot to sign him to a one-year deal after the season, as Kuroda has a full no-trade clause.
- Jonathan Broxton lost the closer job again this season, and he's currently on the DL with an elbow injury. At one point he seemed destined for a monster free agent contract, but instead he might want a one-year deal to rebuild value.
- Rod Barajas leads all NL catchers with seven home runs, though it doesn't get much worse than a .260 OBP. The Dodgers may give some thought to re-signing him on a one-year deal.
- Jamey Carroll has been quite valuable filling in for Rafael Furcal; his .374 OBP leads all MLB shortstops. Carroll should top his last two-year deal and ought to seek a team that will play him every day. Before then, he could be popular at the trade deadline.
- Vicente Padilla had the Dodgers' closer role for a short period of time, but then landed on the DL with more forearm concerns. We'll have to see how the rest of his season goes before assessing his value.
- Lance Cormier has been terrible, and might not make it to the end of the season with the Dodgers.
- Dioner Navarro missed most of April with an oblique injury and hasn't done anything yet.
- Marcus Thames hasn't played much this year due to a quad injury. Vision problems have sidelined Jay Gibbons.
- Mike MacDougal is doing his usual tightrope act, but the beleaguered Dodgers bullpen needs him right now.
- Aaron Miles is also eligible for free agency. The Dodgers could see quite a bit of turnover next year.
Contract Options (3)
- Rafael Furcal: $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout. Furcal's latest Dodgers contract has been a frustrating one due to injuries. I can't picture the Dodgers exercising this, and I can envision them moving him this summer depending on what his no-trade clause allows.
- Casey Blake: $6MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout. Blake is finishing up rehab for an elbow injury. He was hitting well before that in a small sample.
- Jon Garland: $8MM club option with a $500K buyout; vests with 190 IP. At his current pace, another 22 or 23 starts would not be enough for Garland to reach 190 innings. It'd be the first time he's failed to do so since he was a reliever a decade ago. I don't picture the Dodgers exercising at a $7.5MM net price.
Arbitration Eligible (7)
- First time: Clayton Kershaw, Ramon Troncoso
- Second time: Tony Gwynn Jr.
- Third time: Matt Kemp, James Loney, Hong-Chih Kuo
- Fourth time: Andre Ethier
The Dodgers have an interesting arbitration group. Kershaw should top Jered Weaver's first-time record for a starting pitcher, though David Price may beat Kershaw and in a way the record is technically and should remain the Giants' $8MM filing for Tim Lincecum last year. Kemp and Ethier both kept their final arbitration years open, and now it's time to get paid. Ethier is operating from a higher salary point, but each player should be able to exceed $12MM. Targets for their agents may include Mark Teixeira's $12.5MM in '08 or even Prince Fielder's $15.5MM this year.
Loney probably should have been non-tendered or dealt last offseason; he's highly unlikely to be tendered a contract this time. Kuo, on the DL with anxiety disorder, is an unknown. Troncoso and Gwynn could be cut, though they wouldn't cost much to retain. For my rough estimate I'll put Kershaw at $6MM and Kemp and Ethier at $13MM each, plus Kuo at $3MM for a total of $35MM.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Dodgers' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $48MM if you include all three buyouts on the options. Our arbitration estimate puts them at $83MM, a solid $37MM short of this year's payroll without considering minimum salary players. The big question, of course, is the team's ownership situation. If by November Bud Selig successfully removes Frank McCourt from the picture entirely and installs a new owner, the Dodgers figure to be major players in free agency. If not, I have to think payroll would be cut. In that case GM Ned Colletti would still have some spending money, just not for the big names.
Contenders And Lefty Relievers
Athletics lefty reliever Jerry Blevins has been designated for assignment and is presumably available, leaving me to wonder which contenders have a need. For now I'll define a contender as any team five games out in the division or wild card at worst. That generously leaves 24 teams to consider. Note that I haven't included minor league southpaw starters who could be promoted to the big league pen, like Charlie Furbush was with the Tigers. The lefties on each team's active or Triple-A roster or DL list:
AL East
- Yankees (1): Boone Logan. Pedro Feliciano aiming for July return. Randy Flores and Andrew Sisco at Triple-A.
- Rays (2): J.P. Howell, Cesar Ramos. Jake McGee and R.J. Swindle at Triple-A.
- Red Sox (2): Rich Hill, Franklin Morales. Felix Doubront is on the DL but will be used as a starter. Hideki Okajima could remain in the organization if he clears waivers. Also have Andrew Miller, Randy Williams, and Tommy Hottovy at Triple-A.
- Blue Jays (2): Luis Perez, Marc Rzepczynski. Willie Collazo, Sean Henn, Wil Ledezma, and Rommie Lewis at Triple-A.
- Orioles (2): Mike Gonzalez, Clay Rapada. Alberto Castillo, Mark Hendrickson, Chris George at Triple-A.
AL Central
- Indians (2): Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp. Nick Hagadone at Triple-A.
- Tigers (2): Charlie Furbush, Daniel Schlereth. Brad Thomas on the DL with elbow inflammation. Ramon Garcia, Matt Hoffman, Fu-Te Ni at Triple-A.
- White Sox (3): Will Ohman, Chris Sale, Matt Thornton.
- Royals (2): Tim Collins, Everett Teaford. Blaine Hardy at Triple-A.
AL West
- Rangers (2): Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes. Beau Jones, Michael Kirkman, Zachary Phillips at Triple-A.
- Angels (2): Scott Downs, Hisanori Takahashi. Scott Kazmir on DL with lower back stiffness. Barret Browning, Horacio Ramirez at Triple-A.
- Athletics (3): Craig Breslow, Brian Fuentes, David Purcey.
- Mariners (1): Aaron Laffey. Cesar Jimenez, Royce Ring at Triple-A.
NL East
- Phillies (2): Antonio Bastardo, J.C. Romero. Juan Perez, Mike Zagurski at Triple-A.
- Marlins (2): Randy Choate, Mike Dunn. Victor Garate, Dustin Richardson at Triple-A.
- Braves (3): Eric O'Flaherty, George Sherrill, Jonny Venters. Yohan Flande, Jose Lugo at Triple-A.
- Mets (3): Tim Byrdak, Pat Misch, Michael O'Connor. Justin Hampson, Taylor Tankersley at Triple-A.
NL Central
- Cardinals (2): Trever Miller, Brian Tallet. Rich Rundles, Raul Valdes at Triple-A.
- Reds (1): Bill Bray. Aroldis Chapman on DL with shoulder inflammation. Tom Cochran, Jeremy Horst, Joseph Krebs, Dontrelle Willis at Triple-A.
- Brewers (0): None, though Danny Ray Herrera could join the active roster soon. Zach Braddock, Manny Parra, Mitch Stetter on DL. Sam Narron, Chase Wright at Triple-A.
- Pirates (1): Joe Beimel. Dan Meyer, Daniel Moskos, Garrett Olson, Justin Thomas, Tony Watson at Triple-A.
NL West
- Giants (3): Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler. Justin Dowdy, Geno Espineli at Triple-A.
- Rockies (1): Matt Reynolds. Rex Brothers, Eric Stults at Triple-A.
- D'Backs (1): Joe Paterson. Tom Layne, Jordan Norberto at Triple-A.
The Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Brewers, Mets, and Diamondbacks strike me as a few clubs looking light on lefty reliever depth, though unproven or journeyman pitchers step up every year. Plus, some teams are comfortable with their right-handers' abilities to retire left-handed hitters.
Brewers Claim Danny Ray Herrera Off Waivers
The Brewers claimed reliever Danny Ray Herrera off waivers from the division-rival Reds, reports John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The Brewers will have to open a spot on the 40-man roster for the 5'6" lefty, who is currently at Triple-A. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein first tweeted that Milwaukee made the claim on Herrera.
The 26-year-old Herrera came to the Reds from the Rangers in December of 2007 along with Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton. Herrera logged 92 big league innings from 2008-10, posting a 3.62 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 0.8 HR/9. Against southpaws, he has a 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 0.41 HR/9 in 44 career innings. He's the definition of a soft-tosser, with an average fastball in the 83-84 mile per hour range. Herrera's out pitch is a screwball, as ESPN's Tim Kurkjian explained in this article a couple of years ago.
The Brewers are the only contender currently without a left-handed reliever on the active roster. Zach Braddock, Manny Parra, and Mitch Stetter are all on the DL.
Athletics Designate Jerry Blevins For Assignment
The Athletics designated lefty reliever Jerry Blevins for assignment, tweets the team. The move opens a spot on the active roster for Josh Outman, who is scheduled to make his first Major League appearance in nearly two years tonight.
Blevins, 27, appeared in 15 games for the A's this year. He struck out 13 but walked 13 in 14 1/3 innings. In his career, he's handled lefties very well: a 10.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.83 HR/9 in 54 innings. The A's should be able to find a trade partner within the next ten days.
If The Padres Become Sellers
Having lost their last three games, the Padres are 19-28, in last place and 8.5 games out in the NL West. They're second to last in the league with 3.51 runs scored per game, though at 4.40 the offense has been much better in May. The Padres' starters carry an unspectacular 4.16 ERA, while their bullpen remains on top at 2.30.
Padres GM Jed Hoyer tried for the best of both worlds during the offseason, trading his best player in Adrian Gonzalez while also importing a bunch of bounceback candidate veterans in hopes of remaining competitive. Perhaps 2010 was just an anomaly in the Padres' rebuilding process, and Hoyer will continue thinking long-term when the trade deadline approaches in a couple of months. In that case, who might be available?
- Closer Heath Bell sports a 1.13 ERA on the season. Like Pittsburgh's Joel Hanrahan, the 33-year-old Bell has traded a bunch of strikeouts for an improved groundball rate this season. Bell is earning $7.5MM and will be eligible for free agency after the season; there's a good chance his team can offer arbitration and net a pair of draft picks. The Nationals were able to extract highly-rated catching prospect Wilson Ramos from the Twins for closer Matt Capps last year. Capps came with an additional year of control but without Bell's pedigree. Still, even an Octavio Dotel rental netted the Pirates James McDonald and Andrew Lambo.
- I can picture the Padres dealing Bell or Mike Adams, though moving both would be bold. There's a case to be made that Adams has more trade value – he owns a 0.87 ERA through 20 2/3 innings, has much stronger peripheral stats than Bell, and is under team control for 2012 at a salary unlikely to reach $5MM. Chad Qualls sits a level below Bell and Adams and figures to be dealt. He's not striking batters out, but he is keeping the ball on the ground and it's worked so far.
- Ryan Ludwick owns a .224/.304/.373 line in 425 Padres plate appearances dating back to last year, work that would get most players designated for assignment. Silver lining: he's at .289/.331/.526 since April 20th. If Ludwick maintains that production over the next two months, he'll be one of the better bats available and should net the Padres a decent prospect.
- Brad Hawpe has a similar story, in that he's heated up this month. Hawpe is cheaper, but he also carries more of a platoon bat reputation and has been shielded from lefties this year. The other half of that platoon, Jorge Cantu, has been terrible and might not make it to the trade deadline.
- Padres prospect Jedd Gyorko is doing major damage in High-A ball, though they'll probably still want Chase Headley around in the $4MM range next year. Headley, who ranks fifth in the league with 27 walks, would be worth listening on now though. He doesn't have the power of a typical third baseman, but there's not much better on the trade market aside from perhaps Wilson Betemit.
- Aaron Harang has a 4.31 ERA in nine starts on the season, with peripheral stats similar to last year. Only three of his starts have come away from PETCO, and he pitched well in two of them. Harang has shown the skills of a 4.50 ERA pitcher, though that was true last year as well. The difference is that he's earning $4MM this year instead of $14.5MM, so a contender should be willing to take a flier.
- I've analyzed four other potential sellers so far: the Astros, Twins, Diamondbacks, and Pirates.
Twins May Explore Kevin Slowey Trade
The Kevin Slowey relief experiment has ended, and a change of scenery appears to be in order. The 27-year-old control artist told Twins manager Ron Gardenhire he was having a hard time as a reliever, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Slowey is headed back to Triple-A to get stretched out as a starter, but Gardenhire implied on ESPN 1500 that the right thing is to find the righty a starting opportunity with another club. After Sunday's game, Slowey had this to say to Neal:
"I understand our situation here. I understand the starters we have here, and I understand that, even given past successes as a starter, this might not be the right fit for me anymore."
That's a far cry from March of 2009, when Slowey talked to MLBTR about how he'd love to stay with the Twins long-term.
It's odd that a team with the second-worst rotation in the AL to date can't find room for Slowey, but Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker are pitching well and Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano were very good last year. There's a case to be made for replacing Brian Duensing, but the Twins may prefer to give top prospect Kyle Gibson a look.
Slowey is not without his flaws. He's a righty with a 90 mile per hour heater. He's hittable, and his high flyball rate makes him prone to the longball. He's averaged about 5.5 innings per start in recent years and hasn't reached 175 in a season since '07. Most recently, he battled a shoulder strain in April.
Some team has a chance to buy low on Slowey, though, since he is capable of a sub-4.00 ERA. Slowey is earning $2.7MM this year, and is under team control through 2013 as an arbitration eligible player. Given how the 2011 season has gone so far, his 2012 raise should be limited. Contenders like the Red Sox and Marlins are currently hurting for starting pitching, though needs will become clearer for all teams a month or two from now. The Blue Jays reportedly had interest in Slowey in early March.
2012 Contract Issues: Arizona Diamondbacks
The surging Diamondbacks are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (4)
- Kelly Johnson is the Diamondbacks' biggest free agent and may be a trade candidate if he returns to his 2010 form.
- Melvin Mora had a resurgent 2010 for the Rockies, but he's struggling so far with Arizona. Xavier Nady and Aaron Heilman, also signed to one-year free agent deals, have failed to produce as well.
Contract Options (3)
- Zach Duke: $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout. Duke is currently rehabbing in the minors after breaking his pitching hand in mid-March. If the lefty is to be retained at a $4.75MM net price, he'll need a solid four months.
- Henry Blanco: $1.15MM mutual option with a $250K buyout.
- Willie Bloomquist: $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout. Kevin Towers dished out three mutual options last offseason, the most of any team. This was just a way to push $400K onto next year's payroll.
Arbitration Eligible (8)
- First time: Juan Gutierrez, Gerardo Parra, Ryan Roberts
- Second time: Josh Wilson, Micah Owings
- Third time: Joe Saunders, Miguel Montero, Sean Burroughs
Parra and Roberts will be on the Super Two borderline, assuming it is around two years and 146 days. Saunders is the big money case, as he's working from a $5.5MM salary. However, if he continues along with an ERA over 5.00, he'll probably be non-tendered. Montero will still provide good value, though the catcher's salary could climb past $5MM. Gutierrez's salary should remain reasonable, while Wilson, Owings, and Burroughs will probably be cut loose. If Saunders is cut, Arizona's arbitration eligibles shouldn't cost much more than $8MM.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Diamondbacks' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $28.908MM if Duke's option is declined. Throw in $8MM for arbitration eligibles and the D'Backs are still about $20MM under their 2011 payroll before accounting for minimum salary players. The payroll exceeded $70MM in each of the two previous years, and a return to that level would give Towers over $30MM in 2012 salaries to work with.
Fred Wilpon On Reyes, Wright, Beltran
Jeffrey Toobin of The New Yorker has penned a must-read article about Mets owner Fred Wilpon, although at almost 11,000 words you may have to save it for your lunch break. Toobin spent significant time with Wilpon, and also conversed with Bernie Madoff. The article serves as a great primer on Wilpon's rise. A few items within MLBTR's realm:
Wilpon on Jose Reyes on April 20th:
"He thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money. He’s had everything wrong with him. He won’t get it."
MLBTR's take: We've heard the rumor that Reyes could seek a contract in the seven-year, $142MM range, but it gains credibility coming from the Mets' owner. While it's rare to hear this kind of blunt honesty from a team owner, there's nothing surprising here. Reyes may have raised his stock beyond Crawford's in the month since Wilpon's quote, and a Mets extension has seemed unlikely for some time.
Wilpon on David Wright on April 20th:
"He’s pressing. A really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar."
MLBTR's take: Again, there are plenty of people who consider Wright less than a superstar at this stage in his career, but now we can count the Mets' owner among them. Since Wright can be under team control through 2013, there's not much reason to consider an extension right now anyway.
Wilpon on Carlos Beltran:
"We had some schmuck in New York who paid him based on that one series [his 2004 postseason with the Astros]. He’s sixty-five to seventy per cent of what he was."
Toobin notes that Wilpon was referring to himself in this quote. I imagine most GMs agree that Beltran is 65-70% of what he was, especially since he's playing right field rather than center. But Wilpon's comment doesn't exactly boost Beltran's trade value.
Wilpon on Ike Davis and the Mets in general on April 20th:
"Good hitter. Shitty team—good hitter."
MLBTR's take: I just thought this was a funny quote coming from Wilpon.
Bernie Madoff on Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz:
"He must feel that I betrayed him, as do most of my friends who were involved. Hopefully, they will understand the pressures I was under. I made money for them legitimately to start, but then I got trapped and was not able to work my way out of it. It just became impossible for me to extricate myself, or even try and extricate myself…Fred and Saul were only guilty of trusting their friend and I will live with that guilt and shame forever."
Toobin feels "there are many levels of self-delusion" in this quote, but it is "relevant evidence" as Irving Picard attempts to prove that Wilpon and his associates just looked the other way in Madoff's Ponzi scheme.
Fred Wilpon on investing money with Madoff:
"We certainly wouldn’t have had five hundred and fifty million dollars invested in something that’s a Ponzi scheme, when you know it can only evaporate at some point. We didn’t know."
For me, this is hard to argue. Toobin notes that as the Mets' risks in the Picard lawsuit far outweigh Picard's, "some kind of settlement seems likely, if not inevitable." For Fred Wilpon's sake, hopefully the sides can agree on an amount closer to the owner's initial $160MM-range expectation rather than Picard's one billion-range figure.
Gammons On Millwood, Catchers, Posada
MLB Network's Peter Gammons appeared on WEEI's Mut & Merloni show today, and Jerry Spar has the transcript. A few highlights:
- The Red Sox called on Kevin Millwood to see if he will go to Triple-A Pawtucket and pitch, according to Gammons (on Twitter). With John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka on the DL, the Red Sox are short on starting pitching.
- Gammons does not consider Pedro Martinez a likely option. In a May interview, Pedro seemed to be leaning toward retirement. There's not much else on the free agent market – Jeremy Bonderman and Jarrod Washburn are unsigned, but it's not clear if they're looking to get back into the game or would consider the East Coast.
- "Raise your son to be a catcher," advises Gammons, as many teams around baseball in addition to the Red Sox are getting no production at the position. The average American League catcher is hitting .224/.294/.361 this year, a similar line to the one Ivan Rodriguez had in 2010.
- If Jorge Posada doesn't start hitting, Gammons can see the Yankees releasing him and calling up Jesus Montero, who is hitting .331/.363/.433 at Triple-A. In that case Gammons believes Posada would remain in the AL East, signing with the Orioles. Buck Showalter's final season managing the Yankees coincided with Posada's rookie year.
- Speaking of the Orioles, Mark Teixeira spoke to the Baltimore Sun's Luke Broadwater about the team's interest back in '08: "Of the five offers I received, the Orioles were by far the lowest offer and I don't know if they were ever that serious about signing me. We had one meeting and that was it. I'm not sure if they were ever very interested." Digging through the MLBTR archives, I think the Orioles topped out at seven years, $140MM. Teixeira added that he expects to finish his career as a Yankee.