Several Teams Interested In Brian Fuentes
SATURDAY: Having added Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox appear out of the running for Fuentes, tweets Heyman. However, the Rays, Yankees, and a handful of other teams are still showing interest.
THURSDAY: The Rays appear to be very interested in Fuentes and are pursuing him, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
TUESDAY: SI's Jon Heyman pegs the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Rockies, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Phillies, Brewers, Yankees, and Mets as teams with some interest in free agent lefty reliever Brian Fuentes.
If Fuentes is still looking for Scott Downs money, as ESPN's Buster Olney suggested 12 days ago, many of those eleven teams will drop out. I'm skeptical the Red Sox would sign Fuentes, as he'd be a luxury and they'd be hit with a 30% added tax. The Blue Jays appear close with Octavio Dotel, the Rockies just added Matt Lindstrom, the Brewers signed Takashi Saito, the Yankees added Pedro Feliciano, the Twins have big commitments to Joe Nathan and Matt Capps, and the Phillies and Mets appear nearly tapped out on payroll.
The Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners, Twins, Pirates, Yankees, and Mets do seem destined to add relievers, though I can see a shift toward a buyer's market a few weeks from now.
Potential Free Agent Bats For 2012-13 Offseason
Last week we looked at starting pitchers who could reach free agency after the 2012 season. Today, let's see which bats might be available.
The following position players are among those on pace to have six-plus years of service time for the first time once the '12 season ends: Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Luke Scott, and Carlos Quentin. Others currently in the four-plus service time class, such as Mike Napoli and James Loney, will need strong 2011 seasons to avoid being non-tendered. Hamilton looks like the only candidate for a $100MM+ deal, unless someone else posts massive 2011-12 seasons. Of course, any of these players could be extended before the '12 season ends.
As far as position players on multiyear deals that will expire after '12, in most cases we'll see veterans who won't qualify as top bats: Torii Hunter, Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand, and Marlon Byrd for example. There are a pair of big names, though: David Wright and Ichiro Suzuki. Wright will turn 30 in December of 2012, and if his next two campaigns go well he could land a huge contract. Ichiro will turn 39 after the '12 season.
More than a dozen position players have contract options for 2012, which if exercised would make them eligible for free agency after that season. Yadier Molina, Aramis Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Nick Swisher are the interesting names here, though some could be free agents after '11 if the options are declined.
A similar-sized group has options for '13, which if declined will make them free agents prior to that season. Names here include Brian McCann, Aubrey Huff, Travis Hafner, Mark Reynolds, Ian Kinsler, Kevin Youkilis, and Curtis Granderson. The most appealing players, however, figure to have their '13 options exercised.
Aaron Hill, Ryan Doumit, and Robinson Cano have club options on the '12 and '13 seasons – '14 as well for Hill. The big prize, Cano, will probably have both exercised.
Current free agent hitters could join this group by signing two-year deals or one-year contracts with options that are picked up. Still more names will be added from those who sign one-year deals now and again after the season, as well as those non-tendered after '12.
As of right now Hamilton and Wright project as the top bats for the 2012-13 offseason, though others like Upton, Young, Drew, Ethier, and Kemp could join the discussion by posting a pair of big offensive seasons.
Cot's Baseball Contracts was instrumental in creating this post.
Athletics Out On Adrian Beltre
The Athletics pulled out of talks with Adrian Beltre this week, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. They made multiple offers for the third baseman this winter, but will now look at relievers Chad Qualls and Hideki Okajima and possibly a different third base option.
Rosenthal says the Rangers maintain interest but "remain uncomfortable with both the price and fit" for Beltre given incumbent third baseman Michael Young.
Unless a surprise team jumps in, the Angels remain the favorite despite pulling their offer. It does not appear that their situation has changed since these reports eight days ago.
Orioles Interested In Grant Balfour
The Orioles have "definite interest" in free agent reliever Grant Balfour, according to MASN's Roch Kubatko. Kubatko notes that signing the Type A-designated Balfour would require the Orioles to hand over their second-round pick to the Rays. A year ago, the Orioles were willing to give up the 53rd overall pick to sign Mike Gonzalez. This pick would be later in the draft.
Other former Balfour suitors such as the Red Sox and Rockies have filled bullpen needs, so the Orioles have some leverage. The O's still have lingering interest in Kevin Gregg, a situation that's starting to drag. Kubatko says they'd also like to sign a lefty reliever, and "the door still hasn't closed" on Mark Hendrickson and Will Ohman.
Unfinished Business: AL Central
We've covered the unfinished business for teams in the NL East, Central, and West as well as the AL West. Now it's time to tackle the AL Central.
- White Sox: Swingman or reliever. A week ago, MLB.com's Scott Merkin opined that Chicago's biggest remaining need was a fourth or fifth starter type who could move to the bullpen when Jake Peavy returns. Or, the Sox could add another reliever and put Chris Sale in the rotation to start the season. GM Kenny Williams could theoretically clear some payroll space by moving Mark Teahen. Another remaining offseason goal could be to lock up John Danks, who is entering his second arbitration year.
- Indians: Veteran starting pitcher, third baseman, utility infielder, Shin-Soo Choo extension. A Choo extension is unlikely, but MLB.com's Jordan Bastian suggests the Tribe will attempt to find bargains for the other needs. Here's a look at the unsigned third base candidates. Bartolo Colon is the type of pitcher on the radar to compete for a fifth starter job.
- Tigers: Starting pitcher, lefty reliever. MLB.com's Kelly Thesier suggested a couple weeks ago that the Tigers could add a fifth starter/swingman type as well as a lefty reliever later in the offseason. On a later conference call, GM Dave Dombrowski said he's comfortable with the team's pitching staff but remains open-minded. They were linked to Brad Penny that same day.
- Royals: Starting pitcher, reliever. The Royals' 2011 rotation is looking barren at this point, and their bullpen is light too. The additions of Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera imply that Dayton Moore likes a little veteran presence on his team, so I expect him to add some stopgaps to augment the pitching staff. Things have been quiet on the rumor front since the Zack Greinke trade, however.
- Twins: Starting pitcher, reliever(s), backup infielder, Jim Thome situation, Francisco Liriano extension. The Twins will have to figure out a Plan B if they fail to re-sign Carl Pavano. They lost Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, and likely others from the bullpen, so some kind of veteran addition seems likely. We haven't read much on the Twins' desire to re-sign Thome since this December 7th report. The Liriano idea is pure speculation on my part, but perhaps discussions will occur.
Arbitration Tracker
More than 20 arbitration eligible players have already agreed to 2011 contracts, but over 100 are still preparing to file next week. MLBTR now has the best tool for keeping on top of it: our arbitration tracker.
The arbitration tracker shows all eligible players with fields for the player and team's salary submissions, the midpoint, and the amount they settled upon. You'll be able to filter by team, signing status, and whether a hearing took place. Also, links to MLBTR stories are provided if you'd like more information on agreements or extensions.
January 5-15th marks the arbitration filing period, and figures will be exchanged on the 18th for those who have yet to reach an agreement. Hearings will take place in February.
Click here to access our arbitration tracker, which has been added to the Tools menu at the top of the website as well.
How Long Will Phillies’ Four Aces Stay Together?
The Phillies have assembled an amazing quartet to front their 2011 rotation: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. How long can we expect this group to stay together?
- Halladay is signed through 2013, with an option for '14. It's possible the option will vest if Halladay tosses 225 innings in '13, 415 innings in '12-13, and avoids the disabled list at the end of the '13 season.
- Lee is signed through 2015, with a $27.5MM club option for '16. This option can vest more easily than Doc's, if Lee has 200 innings in '15 or 400 in '14-15 and does not finish the '15 season with a left shoulder or elbow injury. Plus, the massive $12.5MM buyout on that option gives it a $15MM net price, which might be worth exercising if Lee is good but not great in his age 36 season.
- Hamels is signed through 2011 and is arbitration eligible for the '12 season. Will he test the free agent waters after '12? The Phillies were able to sign Hamels to his current deal two years ago, but were not able to secure his final arbitration year let alone a free agent season or two.
- Oswalt is signed through 2011. He has a $16MM mutual option for '12 with a $2MM buyout. The $14MM net price should be appealing to the Phillies if Oswalt performs anywhere near his 2010 level, though the pitcher does have the ability to opt out. There are plenty of possibilities after the '11 season: Oswalt could retire, both sides could decide $16MM is a fair salary for another go-round, the Phillies could choose to decline, or the pitcher could decide he wants security for 2013 and seek a multiyear deal.
My guess: the Phillies will work something out with Oswalt for 2012, and we'll enjoy these four pitching together for two seasons.
Thanks to Cot's for the contract info.
Unfinished Business: AL West
We've examined the unfinished business for the NL East, Central, and West; now it's time to check out the AL West.
- Angels: Third base, outfielder/DH, leadoff man. Adrian Beltre remains a great fit for the Angels, but owner Arte Moreno criticized recent huge deals for Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. Another possibility could be to add Scott Podsednik or Johnny Damon in what many fans would deem a disappointing offseason.
- Athletics: Reliever. GM Billy Beane mentioned 12 days ago that he might be in the market for a reliever after sending Henry Rodriguez to the Nationals in the Josh Willingham deal. However, that was before the A's inked Rich Harden to improve their pitching depth. We can't rule out the possibility that the Angels and Rangers remove themselves from the Beltre bidding and Scott Boras has to come crawling back to the A's.
- Mariners: Starting pitcher, left fielder, reliever, backup infielder. The Mariners figure to add a back-end starter, and possibly a reliever if they move David Aardsma. Back around the Winter Meetings, there was talk of finding a left fielder to supplement Michael Saunders. They could also use a reserve infielder, so the Ms should be active in the shallow end of the free agent pool.
- Rangers: Designated hitter, possible extensions. It's a buyer's market for designated hitters, so the Rangers can probably get Vladimir Guerrero back at their price. Theoretically, they could make a move for Adrian Beltre and shift or trade Michael Young. Brandon Webb was affordable, so the Rangers could sign another veteran starter if they're so inclined. The Rangers may also look into extensions for arbitration eligible players like Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson in the coming months.
Odds & Ends: McCrory, Gregg, Hill
A year ago today, the Giants signed Mark DeRosa to a two-year, $12MM deal. Due to a wrist injury, DeRosa wasn't a factor in the team's World Championship. Today's links:
- The Chiba Lotte Marines announced the signing of Bob McCrory, writes NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman. McCrory, 29 in May, had labrum surgery in October of 2009, became a minor league free agent, failed a physical for the Red Sox, and ended up making 19 appearances for Baltimore's Double-A affiliate this year.
- Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun is surprised by the lack of a resolution in the Orioles' month-long pursuit of reliever Kevin Gregg. Zrebiec notes that the O's have "some interest" in Jon Rauch, and there are plenty of other available free agents as well.
- Free agent designated hitters lack leverage in contract negotiations, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. We explored this situation yesterday in trying to find possible fits for Manny Ramirez.
- Red Sox lefty Rich Hill explains the origin of his signature curveball, talking to WEEI's Alex Speier.
- A reminder: in addition to our list of remaining available free agents, MLBTR has a free agent tracker that allows you to filter signed players by team, position, years, and amount.
Bill Me Later: Backloaded Multiyear Deals
Most multiyear free agent contracts are backloaded to some extent. For example, Adam Dunn's four-year, $56MM deal has an average annual value of $14MM but pays the player $12MM in 2011. The White Sox will pay Dunn about 85% of his deal's AAV in the upcoming season, which reflects the average first-year percentage for the 36 multiyear deals signed so far this offseason.
Some teams have opted for a more drastic "bill me later" plan, however. The biggest example is the Phillies' five-year, $120MM deal with Cliff Lee. That works out to $24MM a year on average, but they'll pay him only $11MM in 2011 – just 46% of the AAV. The backloading is accomplished by $25MM salaries in the final three years, plus what appears to be the biggest option buyout ever at $12.5MM. The deals for A.J. Pierzynski, Jayson Werth, and Orlando Hudson are other examples of heavily backloaded contracts that pay the player less than 70% of the AAV in 2011. Including part of his signing bonus, Werth will make only $12MM in '11.
Dodgers GM Ned Colletti did some big-time backloading this winter in his three-year deals for Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, and Juan Uribe. Overall the trio will be paid 67% of their AAV in 2011. Lilly, for example, will make only $7.5MM in 2011 but $12MM in '12 and $13.5MM in '13.
Teams can also pay later by negotiating deferred money into the contract. This is the case with Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, and even Carlos Pena's one-year deal. These deferrals are often without interest, so the team benefits greatly.
Some teams prefer balanced contracts. Including his signing bonus, the Red Sox are paying Carl Crawford a full $20MM in 2011, almost the same as his AAV. They didn't backload Bobby Jenks' deal either. The contracts for Victor Martinez, Aubrey Huff, and Jorge de la Rosa are also spread out evenly.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for contract details. Click here to download a spreadsheet used to create this post.