Last Year’s Best January Signings
If January is a time for bargains, we should have plenty of examples from 2010. The best Major League signings from that month:
- Adrian Beltre to Red Sox for one year, $10MM.
- Vladimir Guerrero to Rangers for one year, $6.5MM.
- Jon Garland to Padres for one year, $5.3MM.
- Brett Myers to Astros for one year, $5.1MM.
- Colby Lewis to Rangers for two years, $5MM.
- Matt Capps to Nationals for one year, $3.5MM.
- Octavio Dotel to Pirates for one year, $3.25MM.
- Aubrey Huff to Giants for one year, $3MM.
- Jack Cust to Athletics for one year, $2.65MM.
- Miguel Olivo to Rockies for one year, $2.5MM.
- Jim Thome to Twins for one year, $1.5MM. This deal was agreed to in January but made official in February.
- Jose Contreras to Phillies for one year, $1.5MM.
For the most part, the key was to sign someone coming off a disappointing season to a one-year contract. Candidates for 2011: Nick Johnson, Derrek Lee, Johnny Damon, Scott Hairston, Manny Ramirez, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Duchscherer, Jeff Francis, Kevin Millwood, Brad Penny, Chris Young, Chad Qualls, Alfredo Aceves, Manny Delcarmen, and Mark Hendrickson.
Nolan Ryan Talks Lee, Webb, Beltre, Hamilton
Rangers president Nolan Ryan appeared on Sportsradio 1310 The Ticket recently, and the Dallas Morning News transcribed key comments.
- Ryan believes that teams these days are "overpaying some free agents that probably shouldn’t be getting paid what they are." He has a three to four-year comfort level on free agent contracts, which of course the Rangers exceeded in their Cliff Lee offer. Noted Ryan, "And the thing is that Cliff could have gotten even more money than that if he'd been willing to go to another ballclub, which wouldn’t have been that competitive."
- The Rangers "are probably getting really close" on a Brandon Webb deal, in Ryan's words. Webb's physical is expected "early this week," tweeted Ken Rosenthal on Sunday.
- Asked about significant remaining additions, Ryan pointed to available designated hitter candidates. He even talked about how the Rangers could sign one DH and "then sign another one that might be good from the other side of the plate."
- Ryan admitted interest in Adrian Beltre, but suggested his team's fit for the third baseman is less clear-cut than the Angels or Athletics.
- Asked about acquiring a center fielder to allow Josh Hamilton to shift to left, Ryan instead pointed to internal center field candidates Julio Borbon and Engel Beltre.
- Ryan gave a general reply when asked how the Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth contracts will affect Hamilton. Ryan said that huge contracts have an impact on the entire game, and demonstrate the importance of developing from within. Hamilton is entering his second arbitration year; he's under team control through 2012. The Rangers have decent raises due for 2011 with Nelson Cruz and C.J. Wilson also among their arbitration eligible players.
Unfinished Business: NL West
We've covered the NL East and Central. Now it's time to examine the remaining unfinished business for NL West clubs.
- Diamondbacks: None. New GM Kevin Towers suggested eleven days ago that the signings of Xavier Nady and Henry Blanco might be his last of the offseason. Check out our Transaction Tracker for a look at Towers' winter.
- Rockies: Starting pitching depth, lefty reliever, Carlos Gonzalez extension. Having added Matt Lindstrom recently, the Rockies' major changes may be done. They may be minor league deals, but it appears GM Dan O'Dowd could add extra starting pitching depth with a Bartolo Colon or Josh Fogg type. They were also thinking about re-signing lefty reliever Joe Beimel earlier this month, though Troy Renck suggests they might stick with internal options. Extending CarGo this winter appears unlikely.
- Dodgers: Right-handed hitting left fielder. At last check the Dodgers had interest in Marcus Thames and the Hairston brothers, who are still free agents. But GM Ned Colletti told Ken Gurnick there's a chance he'll go into spring training with his current group of internal candidates. The Dodgers could also try to do a multiyear deal with Chad Billingsley.
- Padres: Backup infielder. They had plenty of needs, but Jed Hoyer appears to have addressed most of them once the Brad Hawpe deal becomes official. They could sit back and try to snag a bargain middle infielder on the free agent market.
- Giants: Backup shortstop, sixth starter. The Giants haven't ruled out Edgar Renteria, who doesn't have experience beyond shortstop. It was 20 days ago that John Shea linked them to Orlando Cabrera, Ramon Santiago, and sixth starters as well.
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Unfinished Business: NL Central
We looked at the NL East earlier; now it's time to examine the unfinished business of NL Central clubs.
- Cubs: Starting pitcher. ESPN's Bruce Levine says the Cubs are still talking to Tampa Bay about Matt Garza, though the Rays seem to prefer to hang on to him. The Cubs' rotation is already five-deep, so adding a back-end guy wouldn't make sense.
- Reds: Lefty reliever, left-handed hitting outfielder/leadoff hitter, backup shortstop, Joey Votto extension. The Reds have a small amount of cash to play with after Arthur Rhodes signed with the Rangers. Scott Podsednik or Fred Lewis could fit into their tight budget. NL MVP Votto will be tough to lock up, but he's under team control through 2013 anyway.
- Astros: Lefty reliever. The Astros will probably stay in-house for left-handed relief, though they could make a minor move. They also appear reluctant to sign a left fielder and affect Brett Wallace's playing time. Their last move may be trading Jeff Keppinger to clear a little payroll.
- Brewers: None. After signing Takashi Saito today, the Brewers might be done with a successful offseason. They have Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop and Carlos Gomez/Chris Dickerson in center, but don't appear to be looking for upgrades.
- Pirates: Veteran reliever, starting pitcher, taker for Ryan Doumit. Despite the signings of Kevin Correia and Scott Olsen, MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch says they're still looking for starting pitching. They've also been in on Octavio Dotel and others and appear to be shopping Doumit.
- Cardinals: Albert Pujols extension, pitching depth. There was word on December 8th from Joe Strauss that the Cards were shopping for a sixth starter and big league reliever, though MLB.com's Matthew Leach wrote six days ago that they appear to be done adding Major Leaguers. An established backup third baseman wouldn't hurt. The dominating story for the next several weeks should be Pujols, who will be perilously close to free agency if the Cards don't get something done before spring training.
Unfinished Business: NL East
The new year is typically when free agent bargains begin, for teams that set a few million bucks aside. Let's examine the unfinished business for each of the NL East clubs today.
- Braves: Backup outfielder who can handle center field. Someone like Dewayne Wise, Scott Hairston, or even Andruw Jones could work within the Braves' limited payroll flexibility. The Braves will also be seeking a taker for Kenshin Kawakami.
- Marlins: Left-handed hitting bench bat. Catcher John Baker is one candidate. Free agency offers plenty of options – Laynce Nix, Jason Giambi, Joe Inglett, Mark Kotsay, Hank Blalock, Jeremy Hermida, Ryan Church, Casey Kotchman, Gabe Gross, and Jody Gerut, for example.
- Mets: Starting pitcher, lefty reliever, fourth outfielder. The Mets will undoubtedly be bargain shopping, and it's not clear whether they'll manage to add Chris Young or Jeff Francis to the rotation. The market for lefty relievers still features useful, affordable names like Mark Hendrickson and Tim Byrdak.
- Phillies: Taker for Joe Blanton. It seems the Phillies' main remaining goal is to unload Blanton's contract. They could add to the right field mix, but may stick with internal options.
- Nationals: Starting pitcher, first baseman, reliever. The Nats remain in the mix for Carl Pavano and Derrek Lee. Failing those two, they could go in significantly cheaper directions. Casey Kotchman's name has been mentioned. Hard to say whether the Nationals are content with Chad Gaudin and Henry Rodriguez as the bullpen additions.
Will Carl Pavano Land A Three-Year Deal?
The Twins and Nationals are still vying for free agent righty Carl Pavano, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. He suggests a decision could come later this week.
On December 15th, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports passed along one GM's word that Pavano sought a three-year deal worth $10-11MM per year. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote yesterday that Pavano is holding out for three years.
Aside from the Twins and Nationals, Cafardo tossed the Rangers and possibly Mariners into the mix for Pavano. Rosenthal's column from a couple of weeks ago said the Rangers were "not on" Pavano, and their agreement with Brandon Webb probably solidified that stance.
So Pavano seems to have two serious suitors, and agent Tom O'Connell could have a problem if one of them makes a deal for Joe Blanton or even signs a remaining free agent on a one-year deal. My guess is that if Pavano received a three-year offer anywhere near $30MM, he would have taken it already. Teams may be comparing Pavano to Joel Pineiro, who was coming off a great 2009 but could only find a two-year deal from the Angels on January 22nd. But while Pineiro was coming off a lone strong season, Pavano was solid in '09 as well and has tallied 433 1/3 innings over 2009-10 including the postseason. Perhaps the spectre of Pavano's Yankees contract is still looming.
Let's get your take: will Pavano sign a three-year deal?
Will Carl Pavano sign a three-year deal?
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No 67% (5,300)
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Yes 33% (2,662)
Total votes: 7,962
What’s In Store For January
Here's what to expect as we prepare to enter 2011…
Boras Clients Will Find Homes
Last January, Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, Rick Ankiel, and Xavier Nady signed. This offseason Scott Boras still has to place top clients Beltre and Rafael Soriano despite no signs of bidding wars breaking out. He also has to find homes for Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, Kevin Millwood, and Bruce Chen, among others. A year ago, Damon talk dominated January and he didn't sign with the Tigers until late February.
Multiyear Free Agent Deals Will Dry Up
In January 2010, Holliday and Jason Bay came off the board in the first week. Otherwise only three multiyear free agent deals were signed, as Danys Baez, Jose Valverde, and Joel Pineiro received two years. Aside from the Boras guys, Adam LaRoche, Carl Pavano, and a handful of relievers are trying to find multiple years now. Most free agents should expect one-year deals in the $1-5MM range, though.
A few interesting international signings may occur, for example Aroldis Chapman and Colby Lewis last January.
Big Trades Are Rare
Kevin Kouzmanoff was the biggest name moved last January. In 2009 the Cubs dumped Jason Marquis and Felix Pie in separate deals, while the Mariners were active in deals involving David Aardsma, Aaron Heilman, and Ronny Cedeno.
Teams Address Arbitration Eligible Players
On Wednesday of next week, over 150 players will begin filing for arbitration. Many will settle on one-year deals in advance of the salary request exchange date, January 18th. Extensions will be abundant – 14 multiyear deals were reached in January 2010, and nine in January 2009. Possible candidates for multiyear deals next month include Geovany Soto, Miguel Montero, Chad Billingsley, Johnny Cueto, Delmon Young, Jonathan Sanchez, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Matt Garza, Joey Votto, Billy Butler, Francisco Liriano, and John Danks. Agent Matt Sosnick has gotten a jump on things by reaching deals for Jay Bruce and Ricky Nolasco.
January is also a good time to address players who can become free agents after the season. Examples this year: Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, David DeJesus, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Jose Bautista, Josh Willingham, Wandy Rodriguez, and C.J. Wilson.
Other Fun Stuff
Top 50 prospect lists will come out. Waiver claims and DFAs will occur. A few players may retire, while others will start talking comeback. Former big names will sign minor league deals. MLBTR will cover all of it, while also trying to figure out how to make the site even better in 2011.
The Hardest Throwers Available
Fastball velocity holds a certain allure. This winter we've seen four pitchers who averaged 95+ miles per hour on their 2010 fastballs change teams: Henry Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, and Bobby Jenks (minimum 20 innings pitched). Here are the hardest-throwing free agents still out there:
- Kyle Farnsworth (94.9)
- Blaine Boyer (94.6)
- Jose Veras (94.4)
- Brad Penny (94.1)
- Chris Ray (93.9)
- Todd Coffey (93.6)
- Dustin Nippert (93.1)
- Manny Delcarmen (93.1)
How about trade candidates?
- David Aardsma (94.1). Note that setup man Brandon League actually threw harder in 2010.
- Leo Nunez (94.0)
- Matt Garza (93.3)
- It wouldn't be a complete shock to see Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Joba Chamberlain, or Heath Bell included in a deal, though they are unlikely trade candidates.
All velocity data comes from FanGraphs/Baseball Info Solutions.
Possible Fits For Manny Ramirez
Agent Scott Boras intends to find Manny Ramirez a one-year deal as a full-time designated hitter for 2011. ESPN's Keith Law said the slugger has lost bat speed, but "even Reduced Manny has value because he'll get on base at a strong clip and show doubles power, so the only question for suitors is whether they can put up with the injury risk and the potential for drama." Which teams could fit as suitors as we near January?
- Orioles: Their plan appears to be to sign a free agent first baseman like Adam LaRoche or Derrek Lee and continue using Luke Scott as the primary designated hitter. Still, as recently as December 8th the Orioles were open to using Scott at first base and signing a DH.
- Rays: Manny remains a viable option for Tampa Bay, though they could try Dan Johnson at DH if they bring in a first baseman.
- Blue Jays: The Jays committed $2.5MM to Edwin Encarnacion as a cheap DH candidate, so despite Manny's affinity for John Farrell and Toronto they are probably set.
- Royals: Using Kila Ka'aihue at first base and Billy Butler at DH would be a reasonable plan, so there's no need for Manny.
- Twins: They've still got Jason Kubel and a possible desire to re-sign Jim Thome.
- Angels: It's hard to see the Angels adding Manny, with Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera already on the roster. He doesn't seem like their type of player, either.
- Rangers: Vladimir Guerrero is still a free agent, so there is an opportunity for Boras to jump in and try to place Manny with Texas.
Teams such as the Blue Jays, Athletics, and Mariners are now off the board for Ramirez, leaving the Rays and Rangers as the two legitimate possible matches. With Thome, Guerrero, and Johnny Damon still looking for work, the Manny situation could get interesting. Boras probably won't be able to find more than $5MM for Ramirez, who has little leverage.