If The Reds Become Buyers
There's been plenty of talk about the Reds becoming sellers later this year, potentially shedding the salaries of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Francisco Cordero. However, at 17-15, this team is firmly in contention. The problem is that their runs scored and allowed totals suggest a below-.500 team, a club that should finish with 74 wins or so. To remain in the playoff hunt, the Reds need to play better.
With 4.66 runs scored per game this year, the Reds rank in the middle of the NL. If they're able to maintain that production, they'd probably finish around sixth in the runs scored rankings. Improvements might come from within, as more is expected from Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Drew Stubbs, and Jonny Gomes. My speculation: potential outfield bats the Reds could pursue include Scott Podsednik, Andruw Jones, David DeJesus, and Ryan Church. The ability to play center field would be beneficial.
The Reds' starting pitching has been terrible, with a 5.31 ERA. Only Mike Leake has an ERA under 5.00. Again, improvements should come from within, with Harang, Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey capable of better things. Aroldis Chapman doesn't appear ready given a 5.1 BB/9 in Triple A. One interesting rental idea if the Diamondbacks continue to stumble: Brandon Webb. He's talked about playing closer to his Kentucky home, so Cincinnati would be perfect.
The Reds' bullpen has technically struggled, though much of the ERA damage came from low-leverage pitchers Logan Ondrusek and Carlos Fisher. Despite spotty control, Nick Masset's 14.6 K/9 and .511 BABIP suggest he'll round back into setup man form.
Like most teams, the Reds have a few areas for improvement. However, their likeliest path to the playoffs involves veterans simply meeting expectations.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jose Contreras
After an ugly outing against the Yankees on August 29th of last year, Jose Contreras' record stood at 5-13. He had a 5.42 ERA on the season and was well overpaid at $10MM. At the August 31st deadline, the White Sox shipped Contreras to Colorado for minor league pitcher Brandon Hynick plus cash in a salary dump move. The 38-year-old Cuban pitched well in his Rockies debut but suffered a quad injury in his second start. Contreras returned from the injury as a reliever and did a good job in five appearances.
The Phillies signed Contreras in January to a $1.5MM deal. He's been lights-out this season, and has already ascended to second in line to close if Brad Lidge struggles or isn't available. Contreras' dominance is no fluke – as a reliever this year his average fastball has jumped up to 94.7 mph and he sports an 11.6 K/9 with a career-best 54.2% groundball rate. The relief sample is growing – since his Rockies role change Contreras has a 0.95 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 in 19 innings.
Contreras appears to have found a second baseball life as a reliever. Admittedly, the 2010 season has just begun. But if Contreras' excellence continues until free agency, he'll be positioned for a two-year deal or even a closing job.
Griffey Could Be Released Soon
TUESDAY, 8:51am: SI's Jon Heyman tweets that the Mariners "aren't about to release" Griffey. To be clear, here's what LaRue wrote yesterday:
All of them [Don Wakamatsu, Jack Zduriencik, and Chuck Armstrong] are going to ask Junior to retire gracefully. If he doesn’t, the end of Griffey’s career will come, anyway – by way of a release from the Seattle Mariners. All that is going to happen, probably this month.
MONDAY, 5:14pm: Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik told Larry Stone of the Seattle Times that he "wouldn't read into or speculate on anything" as far as an upcoming release. Zduriencik didn't comment on any of the goings on in the team's clubhouse, though he did note that several Mariners are now struggling at the plate.
1:06pm: Ken Griffey Jr. could be released this month, reports Larry LaRue of The Tacoma News Tribune. The Mariners would prefer retirement, but at any rate, LaRue believes "the end is near" for Junior.
LaRue's story details Griffey's problems beyond his lack of offensive production. Apparently he is not proving valuable as a teammate either. For instance, LaRue says Griffey was unavailable to pinch-hit recently because he was asleep in the clubhouse during a game.
Meanwhile, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN in Seattle writes that Griffey has always napped because he has a "sleep issue." It doesn't change the fact that Griffey isn't hitting, but as Drayer notes, Griffey naps constantly.
2011 Contract Issues: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox face two contractual options after the season:
- Reliever Matt Thornton has a $3MM club option with a $250K buyout. This is a good bet to be exercised.
- Backup catcher Ramon Castro has a $1.2MM club option with a $200K buyout. He's missed most of the season with a heel injury.
The team's other free agents are earning $26.125MM this year, led by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski. If they also let Castro go and we add in buyouts paid to Jermaine Dye and Mike MacDougal, the Sox have nearly $29MM coming off the books.
Increases to players under contract total $11.3MM, with Alex Rios, Juan Pierre, Mark Teahen, and Gavin Floyd getting bumps of at least $2MM. There are also arbitration cases to consider: Alexei Ramirez goes for the first time, John Danks, Carlos Quentin, and Tony Pena a second, and Bobby Jenks a third. Technically Ramirez is already under contract for '11, but perhaps he's allowed to choose arbitration if he prefers. I think Jenks will be non-tendered, meaning another $7.5MM off the books.
Using the above scenarios I think the White Sox would have approximately $15MM to work with if they hold payroll steady. Keep in mind that's before re-signing any free agents, including 2010 offensive standouts Konerko and Andruw Jones.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Odds & Ends: Lackey, Stanton, Blue Jays, Vazquez
Links for Monday, as Johnny Damon enjoys a little revenge against his former team…
- Mark Teixeira encouraged John Lackey to sign with the Yankees last winter, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- Marlins prospect Mike Stanton will likely remain in Double A until late May or early June, an MLB source tells MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. That will prevent the young power hitter from gaining Super Two status and an extra year of arbitration. The team would consider promoting Stanton to the majors from Double A at that point if he continues hitting well. Stanton has 15 homers already.
- The Brewers signed shortstop Justin Parker, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). The 23-year-old has a .237/.334/.344 line in 584 plate appearances in the low minors of the D'Backs organization.
- In a recent radio hit with The Big Show, Peter Gammons noted that the Red Sox tried to acquire Javier Vazquez during the offseason. Talking to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, Murray Chass learned that the Sox also had interest in Curtis Granderson.
- Kevin Gregg told Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune he was open for anything regarding a return to the Cubs, but they said no.
- Switching to the future tense, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports names ten players who could hit the trading block – including Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Paul Konerko, and Ted Lilly.
- Baseball America's Jim Callis ranks all draft prospects from the last 20 years, based on how they were perceived before their drafts.
Relievers Headed For Non-Tenders
Often due to the save statistic, decent relievers are non-tendered every year because of their expected salaries. It happened to Matt Capps last year. Which relievers might get the axe on this year's December non-tender deadline and join the free agent market?
- Bobby Jenks, White Sox. Jenks has only blown one save this year, but Ozzie Guillen is already looking at other closer options. Jenks has racked up strikeouts, but his control is off and he's given up a slew of hits. I felt he was a longshot non-tender candidate last time around. Tendering him a contract and giving a raise on his $7.5MM salary this time probably won't be appealing.
- George Sherrill, Dodgers. Giving Sherrill a bump from $4.5MM might not make sense for the Dodgers even if he was pitching well. However, the lefty has completely lost it in the early going with 12 walks and 14 hits in 11.3 innings.
- Brian Bruney, Nationals. Bruney would earn more than $1.5MM in 2011 as a fourth-time arbitration-eligible player. With the walks spiraling out of control, there's a good chance the Nats cut him loose as they did with Mike MacDougal last year.
- Tony Pena, White Sox. Pena has time to turn things around; he's only tossed 15.6 innings this year. He's earning $1.2MM on the season and would go to arbitration for a second time.
- Rafael Perez, Indians. Perez is only earning $795K this year, but even the idea of a guaranteed contract might not work for the Tribe if he repeats his '09 season.
- The 2011 free agent list already contains a full slate of relievers, but keep these names in mind as potential additions.
Where Will Jayson Werth Sign?
Back in February, The Philadelphia Inquirer's Andy Martino asked Jayson Werth if he sees himself as a comparable to Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. Werth said:
"I think their situation is a little different from mine. I think I'm a season away from something like that. I think I'm really just focused on being part of something special again."
Talking to ESPN's Jayson Stark a few weeks ago, Werth's agent Jeff Borris did draw the Bay/Holliday comparison, while also suggesting his client has no comparables. Borris added, "If Jayson isn't signed to an extension before he gets to free agency, he'll be the No. 1 position player out there." Borris seems to place Werth above Carl Crawford.
Werth is off to a blazing .349/.417/.688 start for the Phillies this year, with counting stats that project to more than 35 home runs and 120 RBIs. 31 in a few weeks, Werth's injury concerns are behind him. He's ready to cash in – he told Bernard Fernandez he's played his whole career for this season. I think bidding could start at five years and $80MM. Who's in?
- The Red Sox control Mike Cameron and J.D. Drew through 2011 and Jacoby Ellsbury through 2013. But Werth is a longer-term solution, and Theo Epstein could clear a spot with a trade.
- The Tigers could allow Johnny Damon to leave and sign Werth, shifting Magglio Ordonez to left. They'll have money to work with, but could find other needs more pressing.
- Could the Royals make a splash? It might require raising payroll.
- The Brewers could have an opening in right field if they non-tender Corey Hart. They'll probably be more worried about Prince Fielder's future, however.
- The Yankees are seen as a prime candidate for Crawford or Werth, as their only significant outfield commitment is to Nick Swisher.
- The Giants have to take a look, as Werth could anchor their lineup.
- The Mariners could use Werth's bat, but he'd probably have to be willing to play left field. They'd have to bump the payroll back up.
- The Rangers have potential outfield openings, but ownership would need to be settled.
- The Nationals don't have a long-term answer in right field, and may look to replace Adam Dunn's bat.
Nationals Pitchers With Major Incentives
The Nationals guaranteed over $22MM during the offseason to free agent pitchers, with the lion's share going to Jason Marquis. But that total also includes three interesting signings, hurlers who scuffled in 2009 but had prior success. Matt Capps, Chien-Ming Wang, and Scott Olsen were lured to Washington D.C. in part due to big-time incentive clauses. Let's take a look.
- Capps was non-tendered by the Pirates and drew interest from a dozen clubs. It came down to the Nationals and Cubs, and Capps ultimately took a one-year, $3.5MM guarantee from the Nats. They have the added bonus of controlling him in 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player. Capps' contract includes solid incentives for games finished – up to $425K. He's already finished 16 games, tying Francisco Cordero for the MLB lead. Capps should be able to max out his incentives this year and earn $3.925MM in total.
- Wang signed for a $2MM base salary, and he's also arbitration-eligible after the season. His incentives exceed his base, as he can tack on $3MM. Wang is recovering from shoulder surgery and hasn't headed out on a rehab assignment quite yet, so it appears he won't max out his incentives.
- If you blinked, you might've missed Scott Olsen's time as a free agent. After earning $2.8MM in '09, Olsen was non-tendered on the December 10th deadline. The Nats scooped him back up on the 13th with a $1MM base salary. Olsen can earn $2.825MM in incentives based on starts, up to 33. The 26-year-old southpaw is making over $85K extra per start. He's already made five, and sports a 3.54 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. Like the others, the Nationals control Olsen for 2011 as an arbitration-eligible player. If he continues looking like the Olsen of '06, another non-tender is out of the question.
2011 Contract Issues: Minnesota Twins
The Twins face a pair of contractual options after the season:
- Designated hitter Jason Kubel has a $5.25MM club option with a $350K buyout. If he is able to crank things up and approach his '09 production, I'd expect the Twins to exercise.
- Infielder Nick Punto has a $5MM club option with a $500K buyout. Punto may eventually justify the $4.5MM net price in some statistical or technical sense, but this feels well beyond what he could get as a free agent.
The Twins have plenty of free agents coming off the books, including Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jim Thome. The potential losses of Guerrier and Crain, the Twins' current relief innings leaders, will hopefully be offset by the return of Joe Nathan. Assuming Punto leaves and Kubel stays, the Twins will free up $23.55MM in departing free agents. Of course, they may elect to re-sign some of them. Another $100K comes off with Mike Lamb's buyout being paid.
Increases to players under contract will eat up $19.35MM of the free cash. Joe Mauer leads with a $10.5MM increase, while Michael Cuddyer, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Baker also get decent bumps. Then there are the arbitration cases. Kevin Slowey and Alexi Casilla would go for the first time, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, and Pat Neshek a second, Clay Condrey a third, and J.J. Hardy a fourth.
Even if they let all departing free agents leave aside from Kubel, the Twins will need to raise payroll past $100MM just to retain under-contract and arbitration-eligible players.
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