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Arbitration Breakdown: Chris Davis

By Matt Swartz | November 8, 2013 at 7:53am CDT

Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Chris Davis had a fantastic 2013 campaign, which will earn him a large raise on his $3.3MM salary. As a hitter reaching arbitration for the second time, the primary determinants of Davis’ 2014 salary will be his 2013 statistics, which will be used as a basis to determine his raise. Unlike first-year arbitration eligible players whose entire history is generally discussed, players who reach arbitration eligibility in subsequent years have their raises determined by their platform year statistics, and their previous salary serves as the only relevant summary of their historical performance.

This benefits Davis immensely, who had a career year in 2013. He led the American League in home runs (53) and runs batted in (138), while putting up a solid average of .286. Playing time is very important to arbitration panels too, which also will be an argument in favor of a big raise for Davis. He played in 160 games, coming to the plate 673 times last year.

Few other sluggers have matched this performance going into their second years of arbitration eligibility. In the last seven years, the largest raise went to Jacoby Ellsbury, who got a $5.65MM raise from $2.4MM to $8.05MM in 2012, after hitting .321 with 32 home runs and 105 runs batted in, while swiping 39 bags. Ellsbury also helped his case with 729 plate appearances that year.

In most other cases where an elite slugger reached arbitration eligibility for the second time, clubs have elected to sign multi-year deals. While we are able to use multi-year deals with adjustments to fill in the some of the gaps this leaves in our analysis, it makes it difficult to find precisely comparable players for teams and agents to use in negotiations. In some of these cases, we can look at the first year salary in the multi-year deal, but take it with a grain of salt. In some of these cases though, a more valuable piece of evidence is what the salary figures were when the player and team exchange numbers in advance of a potential hearing.

For instance, Ryan Howard is a decent comparable for Davis. Howard signed a three-year deal going into his second year of arbitration eligibility in 2009. He was coming off a $10MM salary, and hit .251 (much worse than Davis’ .286) but his 48 home runs and 146 RBI are the only thing remotely similar in recent memory (among second-year arbitration eligible players) to Davis’ 53 home runs and 138 RBI. Howard got a $5MM raise his second year as part of that deal, but this came after exchanging numbers with the Phillies. He had requested an $8MM raise and the Phillies proposed just a $4MM. Given that Davis had a much better average and five more home runs, plus the fact that Howard’s raise is five years old, Davis should easily clear $4MM.

Matt Holliday’s raise of $5.1MM in 2008 (including his pro-rated signing bonus) as part of a multi-year deal is also relatively comparable. While he only hit 36 home runs, he hit .340 and knocked in 137 runs, while stealing 11 bags. Again, the fact that six years has passed since this deal, plus the fact that it was a multi-year deal, suggest that this will not be a great comparison. However, given the similarity of Holliday’s and Howard’s effective raises, it stands to reason that adding a few years of inflation should get Davis a solid gain beyond this amount, especially since he hit more home runs (which is the most important stat in arbitration outside of playing time).

Somewhat more recently, Josh Hamilton hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 runs batted in going into 2011, which earned him a $5.5MM raise as part of a multi-year deal. He had been offered a $5.45MM raise already and had countered with a request for a $8.75MM raise, even larger than Howard’s $8MM request two years earlier.

Putting all these together, it is pretty clear that Davis is in his own territory and seems very likely to break Ellsbury’s record Arb-2 raise of $5.65MM. The model actually predicts that Davis would get $10.8MM, but given the new limits of “The Kimbrel Rule,” we are only letting him break Ellsbury’s record by $1MM, giving him a $6.65MM raise to $9.95MM.

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Arbitration Breakdown Baltimore Orioles Chris Davis

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East Notes: Phillies, Mets, Orioles, Rays

By charliewilmoth | November 4, 2013 at 9:05pm CDT

The Phillies' possible offseason targets include Nelson Cruz and Carlos Beltran, CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman notes. Seidman suggests that signing Cruz to a two-year deal for $30MM might make sense. He notes that, while the Phillies shouldn't be trying to get older at this stage, and with $120MM already committed to other players in 2014, they won't have a ton of money to spend. A power-hitting outfielder appears to be the Phillies' greatest short-term need, however. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson says it's "safe to say" the loss of a draft pick won't prevent them from signing a free agent who has received a qualifying offer, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. The Mets' first-round pick in next year's draft, the tenth overall, is protected. If they sign a free agent, they could lose their second-round pick, but not their first.
  • Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com wonders if the Orioles can afford to extend both Chris Davis and Matt Wieters without stretching themseles too thin. Dubroff notes that if Wieters were a free agent this year, he’d probably more coveted than Atlanta’s Brian McCann, who is ranked as the fourth-best free agent available by Tim Dierkes.
  • The Rays' biggest obstacle in finding a deal for ace David Price might be their own sky-high expectation for a return, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Tampa Bay will want to beat out their return for James Shields by a vast margin, but they may have to accept a little less than what they have in mind.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

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Baltimore Orioles New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Tampa Bay Rays David Price

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Minor Moves: Jones, Twins, Berry, Snyder, Wolf, Blackley

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2013 at 5:50pm CDT

Here are today’s outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • The Orioles are placing lefty Chris Jones on their 40-man roster, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun tweets. Jones, 25, posted a 2.67 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 70 2/3 innings for Triple-A Norfolk this year. The move will prevent them from losing him to minor-league free agency.
  • Edgar Ibarra has been added to the Twins’ 40-man roster, the team announced today. The 24-year-old Venezuelan left-hander posted a 1.93 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 60 2/3 innings of relief between Double-Aand Triple-A this season. By adding Ibarra to the 40-man roster, the Twins ensure that he cannot be selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.
  • The Twins have also re-signed Wilkin Ramirez, Dan Rohlfing, Aaron Thompson, Jermaine Mitchell, Lester Oliveros, Doug Bernier and James Beresford to minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training, tweets MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Ramirez and Bernier each saw time with the big league club in 2013, and Oliveros was one of two pitchers received from the Tigers in exchange for Delmon Young in 2011.
  • The Red Sox announced that they have outrighted outfielder Quintin Berry and infielder Brandon Snyder off their 40-man roster. Both are now free agents after spending the majority of this past season at Triple-A. Snyder hit .261/.332/.454 with 10 homers in the minors, while Berry slashed just .191/.309/.257 with three homers and 30 steals in 34 tries at Triple-A.
  • Right-hander Ross Wolf has re-signed with the Rangers on a minor league contract with an invitation to 2014 Spring Training, the team announced. The 31-year-old posted a 4.15 ERA in 22 appearances (three starts) for Texas in 2013, averaging 4.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 47 2/3 innings. Wolf had been outrighted off the 40-man roster and cleared waivers before re-signing.
  • In other Rangers news, left-hander Travis Blackley was also outrighted off the 40-man roster and elected free agency. In 50 1/3 innings between the Rangers and Astros, compiling a 4.83 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.
  • The Padres announced that they have outrighted left-hander Tommy Layne to Triple-A Tucson. Layne, 29, pitched 8 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA ball for the Padres in his second big league stint this season. He has a 4.50 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 704 career minor league innings between the Padres and Diamondbacks, who traded him to San Diego for cash considerations in the 2011-12 offseason. Layne was designated for assignment along with fellow lefty Colt Hynes to make roster space for Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland as they returned from the 60-day DL. Hynes has since been acquired by the Indians.

Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.

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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Minnesota Twins San Diego Padres Texas Rangers Transactions Aaron Thompson Brandon Snyder Quintin Berry Ross Wolf Travis Blackley Wilkin Ramirez

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Orioles Decline Alexi Casilla’s Option

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2013 at 4:41pm CDT

The Orioles have declined their $3MM club option on infielder Alexi Casilla, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Casilla will instead receive a $200K buyout.

The 29-year-old switch-hitter batted just .214/.268/.295 in 62 games (125 plate appearances) in his only season with the Orioles. Baltimore claimed Casilla off waivers from the Twins last offseason and avoided arbitration with him by agreeing to a one-year, $1.7MM contract with a $3MM club option ($200K buyout) for the 2014 campaign.

Casilla has turned himself into a solid defender at second base over the past several seasons and can handle shortstop as well, but his complete lack of offense — he batted just .234/.278/.314 in 451 plate appearances from 2012-13 — likely limits him to a minor league deal this offseason.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Alexi Casilla

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AL East Notes: Red Sox, Lester, Granderson, Feldman

By Jeff Todd | November 3, 2013 at 6:17pm CDT

The Red Sox recipe for a championship has been discussed extensively, ever since it became clear that the team was going to be a real contender. But how does it work as a model for other teams? The New York Post's Joel Sherman, for one, thinks it was a one-time stroke. (He compares the lasting power of GM Ben Cherington's mid-tier free agent binge unfavorably to that of the Macarena.) As Sherman well explains, the circumstances for Boston's worst-to-first turnaround are fairly unique, including the Sox' preexisting talent base and nigh-unbelievable success rate in its free agent signings. While teams are likely to have taken account of the lessons that Cherington taught in occupying the market's midsection, says Sherman, no single one can replicate it. And teams will find their dollars won't go quite as far as did Boston's last time around. More from the American League East:

  • Boston had an offer on the table from the Royals that would have sent Jon Lester to KC in exchange for Wil Myers, reports the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber. When the Sox asked for time to think, Kansas City instead used Myers to bring back James Shields from the Rays. Lauber says that the Red Sox are lucky not to have acted on that tempting trade offer, arguing that Lester has turned into an "undisputed ace." While there is no question that Lester played a critical role in the team's World Series run, that characterization might be subject to some debate — Lester was tied with Jhoulys Chacin for 16th in fWAR among qualified starters this year, but ranked 52nd in ERA and 41st in FIP. 
  • On the other hand, Lester is eighth among starters in cumulative fWAR since 2008, making clear that he has been both excellent and durable. Lauber goes on to weight a possible new contract for the sturdy lefty. He points to two possible comparables: the five-year, $85MM deal signed by Jered Weaver of the Angels, and the six-year, $144MM pact handed Cole Hamels. According to Lauber, the Sox should be interested in an extension — in spite of their prospect depth — if they can get Lester for something more like the lesser of those two deals.
  • The Yankees have yet to decide whether to issue outfielder Curtis Granderson a qualifying offer, reports Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. Perhaps hoping to deter just that possibility, Granderson's agent Matt Brown said that "there's definitely a possibility" that his client would accept an offer. Of course, he also emphasized that Granderson remains "a pretty elite guy" who will be sought after on the free agent market. MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts that the market will value him in the three-year, $45MM range. A qualifying offer, and subsequent rejection of same, still seems the likeliest scenario.
  • Orioles GM Dan Duquette may have a lot of free agents clearing the books, but that doesn't mean he'll be rushing to act on most of them, says the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly. Mid-season starter acquisition Scott Feldman is the top target among them for a Baltimore club that does not figure to flash too much cash on the market, Connolly explains, but the O's aren't likely to go past two years for him. 
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Yankees Curtis Granderson Jon Lester Scott Feldman

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AL East Links: Price, Lester, Papi, Orioles

By Steve Adams | November 3, 2013 at 10:03am CDT

Timing will be the trickiest issue of the offseason for Rays, GM Andrew Friedman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Even if Friedman has an early opportunity to address first base (e.g. re-signing James Loney) or left field, he will have to keep the possibility of a David Price trade in the back of his mind. Acting too quickly to fill either hole could cause the team to miss out on a superior, more permanent option at the position that could be filled in a potential Price trade. Says Friedman: "We have to utilize all the information we have accumulated to that point to make the best decision possible while also appreciating the trickle-down effect of each move." Here's more from the AL East…

  • Jon Lester told reporters, including WEEI.com's Alex Speier, that he's excited to be returning to the Red Sox for another year after having his option picked up but hopes that he can work out a long-term deal with the team. Lester is currently more focused on celebrating Boston's 2013 World Series victory, but said "Hopefully [next year is] not the only one and we can be here for a long time."
  • David Ortiz is still producing at a virtually ageless clip, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald in arguing that the Red Sox should extend their DH. Big Papi is signed through 2014, but his potent bat and status as face of the franchise should earn him a lengthier guarantee, opines Silverman.
  • The Orioles must decide if they wish to protect left-handers Chris Jones and Tim Berry as well as catcher Michael Ohman from the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to their 40-man roster, says Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly also points out the potential fit between the O's and Mark Ellis, should Brian Roberts not be re-signed. There's still some mutual interest between Baltimore and Roberts, Connolly reports.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays David Price Jon Lester

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Orioles Notes: Free Agents, Roberts, Casilla

By Aaron Steen | November 2, 2013 at 10:03pm CDT

Orioles Executive Vice President Dan Duquette appears to have stepped back slightly from his declaration last offseason that the club wouldn't sign a free agent tied to draft pick compensation, Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun reports, potentially putting targets such as Ervin Santana in play for the O's. Connolly writes that Duquette seems to feel better about the club's ability to sign international talent, which might explain the less conservative stance on draft picks. Here's more Saturday night Orioles links:

  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com examines potential free agent starting pitching targets for the Orioles, whose starters combined for a 4.57 ERA in 2013. The article profiles Matt Garza, Hiroki Kuroda, Santana, Dan Haren and Ricky Nolasco, noting that the O's have been connected with Nolasco in the past.
  • In a separate article, manager Buck Showalter tells Melewski that the front office will indeed consider adding a free agent arm this offseason. However, Showalter says the team is also excited about young pitchers such as Eduardo Rodriguez, who finished up the year at Double-A. The manager added that while he's never been turned down by owner Peter Angelos when proposing a deal, he's "not a guy that asks a lot."
  • Showalter sounds as though he expects Brian Roberts to return next season, Melewski writes. The oft-injured second baseman has appeared in just 133 games over the last three seasons, but we'd heard previously that he's among the free agents whom the club is most interested in retaining.
  • In an article reporting on the O's decision to decline their $5MM 2014 option on Tsuyoshi Wada, which was announced earlier this evening, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com discloses that the team will announce next week that it has also declined its $3MM option on Alexi Casilla. The infielder is in line for a $200K buyout if that does come to pass.
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Baltimore Orioles Alexi Casilla Brian Roberts

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Tsuyoshi Wada Becomes Free Agent

By Aaron Steen | November 2, 2013 at 6:40pm CDT

The Orioles declined their $5MM 2014 option on lefty Tsuyoshi Wada, making him a free agent, the MLB Players Association announced. Wada signed a two-year, $8.15MM deal with the O's before the 2012 season, but never appeared in a major league game for the club, as he required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing.

Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun tweets that the Orioles are interested in retaining Wada on a minor league deal. In 102 2/3 innings this season for Baltimore's Triple-A affiliate, the 32-year-old posted a 4.03 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Tsuyoshi Wada

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Minor Moves: Jacobs, Herndon, LaRoche, Lalli, Bourgeois, Humber

By Jeff Todd | November 2, 2013 at 1:13pm CDT

Today's minor moves can be found right here in this post …

  • Among the many re-signings of players otherwise eligible for minor league free agency reported by Matt Eddy of Baseball America are first baseman Mike Jacobs, who will stay with the Diamondbacks, and reliever David Herndon, who the Yankees have re-signed. Neither saw big league action this year. Jacobs put up a nice .296/.366/.533 line in 514 Triple-A plate appearances in his age-32 season, while Herndon, now 28, was good for a 2.78 ERA in his 35 2/3 innings across the Yanks system.
  • Third bagger Andy LaRoche has signed with the Blue Jays, Eddy reports on Twitter. The 30-year-old younger brother of Nats' first baseman Adam LaRoche played in just one game with Toronto last year, and has not been a regular big league contributor since leaving the Pirates after the 2010 season.
  • Catcher Blake Lalli has caught on with the Diamondbacks, Eddy notes in the same link. Also thirty years of age, Lalli has only forty uneventful MLB plate appearances. Playing at Triple-A for the Brewers last year, he put up a .282/.334/.447 line in 311 plate appearances.
  • The Reds have signed 31-year-old outfielder Jason Bourgeois, Eddy reports on Twitter. Bourgeois saw limited time with the Rays last year. His career big league line stands at .259/.305/.326 in 515 plate appearances over parts of six seasons, including 51 stolen bases.
  • Right-handed starter Philip Humber, 30, has inked a deal with the Athletics, reports Eddy (via Twitter). The once-perfect Humber had his option declined by the Astros early last month.
  • Righty Fabio Martinez signed with the Dodgers, per another Eddy tweet. The longtime Angel farmhand last worked in the Indians system, but has never managed to harness his live arm and posted BB/9 totals of over ten in 2012-13. 
  • Pitcher Trevor Reckling has signed with the Reds out of independent league ball, Eddy tweets. He played six seasons in the Angels' system, reaching Triple-A at age 21 before moving the wrong way down the ladder. Noted as a reclamation project for the White Sox before the 2012 year, Reckling will give it one more go in Cinci.
  • The Rockies re-signed minor league second baseman Angelys Nina in a move designed to keep him from reaching the open market as a minor league free agent, tweets Eddy. Nina managed a .280/.331/.422 line in his second go-round at Tulsa, adding ten home runs and nineteen steals.
  • Outfielder Chris Dickerson and first baseman Dan Johnson, each of whom were outrighted on Thursday, have refused their assignments and elected to become free agents, according to an Orioles press release yesterday. 
  • Remember to check MLBTR's DFA Tracker for updates on players designated for assignment around baseball. Currently, only Tommy Layne is sitting in DFA limbo.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Andy LaRoche Chris Dickerson Dan Johnson David Herndon Jason Bourgeois Mike Jacobs Philip Humber

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East Notes: Phillies, Braves, Orioles

By charliewilmoth | October 31, 2013 at 7:16pm CDT

The Phillies could be major players in the outfield free agent market, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. That means they could pursue Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz or Curtis Granderson. (Of those, Cruz might make the most sense, since the Phillies have expressed interest in right-handed hitting to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup.) They're also interested in the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton, but it does not appear the Marlins will trade him. Other than Domonic Brown, Philadelphia got little out of their outfield positions last year. Heyman notes that the Phillies also would like relief help. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Braves could increase their payroll from about $90MM to about $100MM in 2014, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. Even if Brian McCann departs via free agency, however, much of that money could be consumed by arbitration raises. 
  • Of their free agents, the Orioles are most interested in keeping Scott Feldman, Brian Roberts and Nate McLouth, Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com reports. Their other free agents include Francisco Rodriguez, Jason Hammel, Michael Morse and Chris Snyder. They will likely decline their options on Tsuyoshi Wada ($5MM) and Alexi Casilla ($3MM), and they've already outrighted Dan Johnson ($800K). When they decline Wada's option, it will bring his two-year, $8.1MM deal to an end before he even pitched an inning in the big leagues.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies

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