Graziano’s Latest: Andruw, Dunn, Fukudome
Dan Graziano has a new article up regarding the free agent outfielder crop. He spoke to two anonymous GMs. Let’s take a look at some highlights.
- Andruw Jones has an awful .216/.312/.418 line this year. He’s been outdone by Shawn Green, Sammy Sosa, Jose Vidro, and Shannon Stewart in terms of OPS. Nonetheless, Jones isn’t expected to come at a discount. Scott Boras will just play up the defense, the RBIs, the career totals, whatever.
- Graziano says "it’s hard to see" the Reds picking up Adam Dunn‘s $13MM option. This would just be plain dumb on Wayne Krivsky’s part. Given the $0.5MM buyout, it’s basically like signing Dunn to a one-year, $12.5MM deal. How many teams would pass on a huge power bat on a no-risk one-year commitment? If the Reds don’t exercise the option, it will be change for change’s sake. And a bad decision.
- Kosuke Fukudome is the dark horse, a possible impact right fielder from Japan. He will not require a posting fee. Graziano says the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, and White Sox are among the teams scouting him. More on Fukudome in a separate post.
Red Sox Not Talking Extension With Lowell
UPDATE: Lowell talked to Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe, and denied the report below from the Boston Herald. It doesn’t sound like any extension has been discussed recently.
Yesterday, third baseman Mike Lowell confirmed that his agent has had "casual conversations" with the Red Sox about a contract extension. Lowell, 33, is hitting a solid .304/.355/.489 on the season.
If he reaches free agency, Lowell would be on many teams’ radar. There are really only four third baseman out there this winter: Lowell, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Lamb, and Pedro Feliz. Someone might give Lamb a look in a Wes Helms kind of way. And Feliz brings defense and pop, if not OBP. But for the many teams who can’t afford A-Rod, Lowell would be the best option. The Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Pirates, Dodgers, and Giants may all be looking for a third baseman this winter.
Lowell has earned $9MM the last couple of years, which at first appeared to be a burden but now looks reasonable. I imagine the Red Sox would be careful with him, maybe offering 2/20 at most. The alternatives would be to chase A-Rod or just move Kevin Youkilis to third and find a first baseman (which is easier to do).
Random Rumors: Erstad, Gagne, Podsednik
Here’s a smattering of random rumors.
- The Twins have tried and failed to acquire Mike Piazza, Jermaine Dye, and Kevin Mench. Instead of Dye, the White Sox offered up 33 year-old outfielder Darin Erstad, he of the .671 OPS. The Twins passed.
- Eric Gagne will apparently earn Type A status as a free agent, despite pitching only two innings in 2006. Rob Bradford has the details. This was apparently a big factor for the Red Sox in making the deal.
- The Chicago Sun-Times debunks a rumor that the Cubs are trying to trade for Scott Podsednik. How come I wasn’t told about this rumor previously? Who started it? I feel left out.
- The Pirates and Tigers are still talking about Jack Wilson. Apparently the deadline version of the deal died when the Bucs asked for Craig Monroe. Really? The deal died over that guy?
- Gordon Edes has a Major League source indicating that the Orioles are "the kind of team that might have interest" in Wily Mo Pena. That’s not the same as saying that they do have interest, however.
Wily Mo Pena Clears Waivers
According to Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald, Wily Mo Pena has cleared waivers without a claim. It seems no team was willing to risk taking on the $580K owed to Pena this year. Pena can now be freely traded to any team in baseball, though the players received would have to clear waivers too if on the 40-man roster. The way around it would be to make them players to be named later.
I’m surprised no one put in a claim on Pena. It can’t really be his salary, can it? Teams waste more than that on players with no upside constantly. Abraham Nunez makes almost $2MM this year. Is it possible that Theo Epstein somehow convinced the 29 other GMs not to put in a claim? That doesn’t seem possible either. Why wouldn’t Jim Bowden put in a claim? He loves Pena. Why wouldn’t the White Sox put in a claim? Even if a GM figured he couldn’t hammer out a deal with Epstein for Pena, why not put in a claim anyway just in case?
Multiple Teams Looking At Kielty
UPDATE: The Red Sox signed Kielty.
Bobby Kielty is a 31 year-old switch-hitting outfielder. He can typically draw a few walks and hit lefties. He can handle the corner outfield positions but hasn’t played center with any regularity since 2002. Kielty is a free agent now after being released by the A’s.
According to the Boston Herald, Kielty is receiving interest from the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Astros. The Herald mentions Kielty’s ties to New England, while the San Francisco Chronicle considers him the favorite. Question: why would the Astros be interested?
Failed Trades
Let’s take a look at some deals that almost happened yesterday.
Kyle Farnsworth for Bob Wickman. This would’ve been fun, reunions with former teams for both players. However, the Braves wanted the Yankees to pick up all of Farnsworth’s salary, apparently. Brian Cashman didn’t want to make him go away that badly, and Wickman would probably be a nonfactor back in the AL.
Mariners acquire Mark Loretta. Eh. Let’s not overstate the abilities of Loretta. It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him.
Rockies send Jeff Baker and others to Tampa Bay for Dan Wheeler. We can’t really evaluate this one without knowing who else would’ve been involved. And the Rays don’t really have a place to play Baker; they’re already squeezed finding playing time for Jonny Gomes. If Rocco Baldelli ever gets healthy they’ll really have a pickle. I mentioned in a recent interview at D-Rays Bay – Wheeler would probably be one of the ten best relievers available if he was a free agent after the season. The Rays can pump up his value and get a promising young pitcher next year, as the Royals did with Octavio Dotel.
Brewers send Tony Gwynn Jr., Zach Jackson, and another minor league for Eric Gagne. This could’ve been the difference-maker that Scott Linebrink ain’t in a tight NL Central race. But it doesn’t seem like Doug Melvin got a chance to counter the Red Sox offer, so you can’t really fault him.
Red Sox send Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen to White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Well, there has to be some statistical way to evaluate whether this pair beats two draft picks. You’d have to know the attrition rates of first/second rounders, and get some scouts on Pena and Hansen to see if they can ever reach their potential. If I was the Kenny Williams I probably would’ve made the deal. I think Pena gets docked in value from where he was two years ago, but still has pretty much the same upside if you manage him right. Who knows, maybe Williams will go after Pena again this winter.
Red Sox Acquire Eric Gagne
UPDATE: According to NESN’s Tom Caron, Gagne has agreed to come to Boston and will serve as the setup man.
UPDATE: Third player going to Texas, according to Buster Olney. That would be 17 year-old five-tool outfielder Engel Beltre.
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Red Sox are the winner of the Eric Gagne sweepstakes pending Gagne’s consent and a review of medical records. Rosenthal says Gagne might share the closer role with Jonathan Papelbon; it would not be shocking to see Papelbon become the setup man for the rest of the year. That would be a hell of a 1-2 punch regardless and a huge asset for the playoffs.
Rosenthal says Kason Gabbard is one of the two players going to Texas in the deal. Jayson Stark thinks David Murphy is the other player, but it’s far from confirmed. The Red Sox still need to talk to Gagne and Scott Boras.
Dye To Boston May Be Dead; Extension Coming?
UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal’s source says the Dye to Boston deal is "seemingly dead." He lists the Cubs, Angels, and D’Backs as possible alternatives.
UPDATE 2: Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune still thinks the White Sox might hammer out some kind of two-year extension with Dye. But Kenny Williams has a half hour to see if he can get something better than Pena and Hansen.
According to Jayson Stark’s sources, the Boston’s latest offer for Jermaine Dye was Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen. The White Sox want Manny Delcarmen instead; perhaps the Red Sox will be more willing to do that if they complete the Eric Gagne trade. Otherwise, the White Sox may just take Pena and Hansen over the two draft picks they’d get if they kept Dye.
Mets Offer Humber For Cordero
UPDATE: SI.com’s Jon Heyman says the Mets have offered Philip Humber to the Nationals for Cordero, but are holding fast with their bigger name prospects. He also confirms that the Diamondbacks are in on Cordero and could offer Carlos Quentin.
According to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post, the fates of Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch might be tied to Eric Gagne. Gagne has the lower asking price and limited no-trade protection, and Jim Bowden may wait until that situation is resolved.
Some possible names on the Nats’ radar include Wily Mo Pena, Carlos Quentin, and Philip Humber. Humber is one prospect the Mets are willing to trade, according to Jayson Stark. Those names don’t exactly gel with the previous demands were hearing from Jim Bowden. Will Bowden back down? Will a desperate team offer a top flight prospect like an Adam Jones? Or will Cordero and Rauch just stay put like last year?
Yankees Discouraged On Gagne, Cubs Still In?
UPDATE: Peter Abraham confirms that the Yankees seem unlikely for Gagne. He says the Red Sox are offering David Murphy and Kason Gabbard, while the Cubs are still quietly involved. Not sure whether Gagne would have to consent to a trade to the Cubs, but he could be used as their closer without a major uprising.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Yankees aren’t liking their chances to get Eric Gagne. That might mean he’s going to the Red Sox, Mets, or Brewers, or that he’s staying put.
The Mets don’t seem likely given some previous reports and the Rangers’ demand for Carlos Gomez.
The Red Sox would probably give up David Murphy and the Brewers would surrender Tony Gwynn Jr. If the Rangers would settle for Gwynn, a deal could happen quickly because Gagne cannot veto a trade there. However, he can block a move to Boston and that would present another obstacle.
Speaking of the Red Sox, Rosenthal sees their chances for Jermaine Dye faded. After all, that deal would have a no-trade obstacle too.