Scouting The Reds
The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th. It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade. Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.
Five articles referenced Dunn this morning. The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:
"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."
One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton. But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable. The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades. While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract. And he’d have to be open to playing left field. Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.
The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more. Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too. Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn. I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.
Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market. The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg. Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.
Stark’s Latest
Jayson Stark has an assessment of the trade market over at ESPN.com.
- Aside from the usual Mark Teixeira/Eric Gagne mentions, Stark believes many Rangers may be headed out at the trading deadline. Specifically, he names Brad Wilkerson, Kenny Lofton, and Sammy Sosa. Lofton is always a good midseason mercenary. He’s like a Mike Stanton in that way.
- Ken Griffey Jr. would approve a trade to Atlanta and might consider certain other teams. Junior is making $12.5MM this year and next, plus a $4MM buyout for ’09. Quite a bit of the contract is deferred, also. $29MM over 2007-08 is still pretty steep, but now would be the right time to trade Griffey.
- Nationals – still asking too much for Chad Cordero. Bowden’s got time to wait around for the right deal, I suppose.
- Best option for Todd Helton still appears to be the Angels, in Stark’s mind. That does not seem workable to me, because Casey Kotchman has broken out and Vlad needs access to the DH spot.
- Speaking of DHs, this might finally be the year Mike Sweeney gets traded and gets to play for a contender. If he heats up, maybe the Twins could snag him.
- Michael Bourn could be a trade candidate, if the Phillies decide he’s only a future fourth outfielder. Probably makes sense to keep him around if Aaron Rowand is going to walk after this season.
- The Astros are buyers, and they have all sorts of needs. A young catcher would be nice, but those are always in short supply.
- Speaking of young catchers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has received interest but the Braves are not biting. A lot hinges on Scott Thorman‘s performance and, of course, which young player the Braves are offered for Salty. Most teams would love to have him.
Renck’s Latest
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has a host of trade rumors in his recent column. Let’s break it down:
- Time to restart those Todd Helton rumors, as the first baseman is hitting a robust .360/.473/.533. Renck thinks a trade to Detroit is unlikely, but that the Yankees, Red Sox, or Braves could make a play for him this summer. The Yanks came up recently via Mark Healey. Maybe with Helton’s strong start, the Rockies can get their part of Helton’s $90MM contract down to $30MM.
- Renck likes the Rockies, Braves, and Red Sox as suitors for Rocco Baldelli. Rocco hopes to return in early June from a strained left hamstring. I wouldn’t expect a deal until at least late June.
- The Astros apparently are not making Chris Burke available despite his demotion. That’s a shame, because the Rockies like him. The Rox are hoping to see Kaz Matsui return from a back strain this week, so we’ll see how that goes first.
- The Angels still have interest in Garrett Atkins but talks haven’t been serious. Seems odd that Dan O’Dowd would sell low on Atkins at this point, but I guess it depends on the return and the Rockies’ projections for him.
Chris Burke Demoted; Trade Next?
This afternoon, the Astros made the tough decision to demote CF/2B/LF Chris Burke to Triple A. With Craig Biggio and Hunter Pence playing every day, and Mark Loretta hitting .375, the Astros preferred to send Burke down to play more consistently.
Burke will report to Round Rock within his three day limit, but his comments suggest he wouldn’t mind a trade:
"I’d like to play in the Major Leagues for somebody. Hopefully it will be [Houston], but I don’t know what will happen. [Going elsewhere] is obviously something I have no control over. I just want to play."
Burke, now 26, set a career high with 366 ABs for the Astros last year. He began the year as the Astros’ starting center fielder but has already been supplanted by hot prospect Pence. Last year, Burke had a strong first half (.298/.376/.483) and became a full-timer in June. He didn’t show much power after that, and finished on a low note with a .583 OPS in September.
Burke still carries a pretty strong PECOTA projection (.278/.348/.452). Looking at his comparable players list, Robby Thompson appears to be Burke’s upside. He was the 10th overall pick in ’01 as a shortstop. Burke eventually moved to second base before the ’04 season. He made a lot of top prospect lists after posting a .912 OPS in Triple A that year. He was given a shot in ’05 but didn’t hit much.
It should be noted that Burke had shoulder surgery last October, and his slow start could be related. I think plenty of teams would show some interest in a versatile, cheap player with a decent pedigree. The Mets could consider him for some additional help at second base, or the Marlins could pursue him to play center field.
Angels Interested In Garrett Atkins
Last year, Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins was the second-best hitter at his position, behind only Miguel Cabrera. Atkins isn’t set to reach free agency until 2011, making him a very valuable commodity. The Rockies had talks with him this offseason about a deal covering his arbitration years and first year of free agency, but no agreement could be reached.
Now, both the Denver Post and L.A. Times are reporting that the Angels are interested in trading for Atkins. Troy E. Renck of the Post says Atkins’s name first came up during the Winter Meetings when the two clubs were discussing a Todd Helton deal. Renck writes that Ervin Santana would be a must in any trade and that the Angels also have interest in Brad Hawpe and Jeff Baker. He also says Atkins is still considered a core member of the team, so a deal is unlikely. I wonder if Bill Stoneman is trying to take advantage of a subpar start for Atkins – his defense hasn’t been pretty and his power has been MIA.
From the L.A. side, Mike DiGiovanna adds several players on the Halos’ radar: Kevin Mench, Jacque Jones, Pat Burrell, Emil Brown, Morgan Ensberg, and Edwin Encarnacion. DiGiovanna agrees that Santana is the top trading chip. Santana could really blossom in the National League. With Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton struggling and Brett Myers in the pen, the Phillies probably have the strongest need. Starters Joe Saunders and Dustin Moseley could be used if the Angels want to make a smaller deal.
As long as the Angels are making an all-out blitz for a third baseman, let’s speculate on some other possibilities. Mike Lowell, Chad Tracy, Hank Blalock have all been rumored in the past; the Rangers clearly have the biggest need for a starter. Santana, however, could be Brandon McCarthy all over again with his flyball tendencies.
MetsBlog Talk Radio
Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog has started up a web/podcast called MetsBlog Talk Radio. Matthew’s already got some quality guests lined up, including Buster Olney. Check out the show tonight at 6:00 eastern/5:00 central. And if you miss it, you can download it from Itunes.
Also, some reading material: Kevin Alderman chats with John Lopez of the Houston Chronicle. Lopez seems Morgan Ensberg and Luke Scott as some trade candidates later this year.
And you have to check out Cole Hamels Facts (CHF). Sample fact: "Cole Hamels refers to himself in the fourth person."
Jason Jennings Negotiations Tabled
According to Astros GM Tim Purpura, the team has curbed contract extension talks with impending free agent starter Jason Jennings.
A major factor preventing further talks is that Jennings is currently on the DL with elbow tendinitis. The MRI showed a lack of ligament damage, but the Astros are going to want a test drive before throwing down $40MM+.
Jennings began 2002 as the Rockies’ fifth starter, but ultimately won the ROY with a 16 win season. He managed to keep his arm healthy for the next four seasons while working in a pitchers’ hell. The Red Sox wanted to acquire him in May of ’04, and the Padres inquired a few months later. The Rockies decided to hang on to him, locking him up for $7MM over 2005-06.
A broken finger cut Jennings’s ’05 season short; that was a rough year as Joe Kennedy beat him out for the Opening Day gig. He hadn’t really endured any arm injuries until now, though. The Astros knew what they were getting into when they traded for him – Jennings threw a career-high 212 innings in ’06. It was a 90 inning jump because of the ’05 injury. He was a horse last year, averaging over 6.6 innings per start. Rockies beat writer Troy E. Renck called him "one of the toughest players I have ever covered."
The Astros gave up a lot to get their #2, and now they could lose him after this season. It was a curious move to surrender all of Jason Hirsh‘s cheap years; he was completely ready to step in and contribute. Jennings is one of several free agent pitchers who will be under 30 in 2008. The list also includes Carlos Zambrano, Mark Buehrle, Joe Kennedy, Kyle Lohse, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
Latest On Lidge
Today brings four new articles mentioning ousted Houston closer Brad Lidge. MLBTradeRumors reads them so you don’t have to.
Ken Davidoff of Newsday simply drops one sentence on the topic, writing that Lidge is not available for the moment. Well, that’s a start.
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger names Lidge one of his "Five Closers Who Had A Tough Week." I really think Ugueth Urbina belongs at #6. Graziano mentions that the Devil Rays have been one of the most aggressive teams calling on Tim Purpura for Lidge, but that the Astros have shown no eagerness to trade him.
Speaking of those Devil Rays, Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times is well-connected to the club as the beat writer. He says Lidge trade chatter is ongoing, but that if the Astros do decide to trade him they might avoid the Rays. Why’s that? Former Astros pitching coach Jim Hickey might be able to fix him, and the Astros don’t want to be shown up in a trade. In essence, they want Lidge to continue to fail if they trade him.
Side note: I couldn’t figure out a good destination for Jorge Cantu, ultimately leaning toward the Mets. But Topkin says the Blue Jays and Twins have come up in rumors in the media. I didn’t catch those articles, but maybe he is referring to reporter chatter.
Scott Lauber of the Wilmington News Journal again connects the Phillies to Lidge. I’m starting to think he’s got more than speculation there. Lauber feels that Lidge needs a change of scenery, but obviously the Astros are reluctant to sell low.
Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
Wagner on Lidge
Jon Heyman has been talking to Mets’ closer Billy Wagner, who is apparently close friends with the down-and-out former Astros’ closer Brad Lidge. Who knew that Wagner was an expert insider in major league baseball– he refutes the Astros’ claim that they are not planning on moving the shell-shocked reliver.
According to Wagner, Philadelphia wouldn’t be a good fit, because, well, it wasn’t a good fit for him. From Heyman’s article: "He needs to be in a place where he can [exhale],” Wagner said. "Houston’s so laid back. Maybe I’m biased against [Philadelphia] … [But] all it takes is one bad game, and fans would kill him." Obviously the Phillies are part of the discussion because they need to improve their bullpen in order to compete in the NL East, but Heyman also mentions the Mets and Devil Rays. Of the Mets, Wagner says: "He’d be a good fit here. In this clubhouse, it isn’t ‘Who hit the home run?’ or "Who had the hit?’ It’s "Did we win?”’ Yea, when I think of a place to exhale, I think Shea Stadium, with its kind, gentle, forgiving Mets fans. Right.
Lidge is on a one-year, $5.35M contract, so despite all the Astros "connections" to the D-Rays, I don’t see it happening. Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times named some candidates yesterday nonetheless. In my opinion, any of those guys are too much to give up, especially for a team with no prayer of making the playoffs. Why are they in the market for a closer?
With so many teams in need of relief pitching, it is likely that Houston will be able to dump all of Lidge’s salary and still get some good value in return. But who, what, and when? It’s only speculation for now.
John Peterson is a Mets fan and writes for the blog Blastings Thrilledge.